DFS Alerts
Brandon Belt (sore knee) scratched Saturday; Kelby Tomlinson replaces
Belt has been scratched from the San Francisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers due to left knee soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Kelby Tomlinson, who will play second base and slot directly into Belt’s vacated eighth second in the order, which does shift Chase d’Arnaud over to first base defensively. However, the remainder of the Giants lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Gio Gonzalez on the road this evening.
As reported by: Alex Pavlovic via Twitter Other tagged players: Kelby Tomlinson
The Cheapest Guy I'm willing To Use
There isn’t a whole lot of value on this slate, but Delmonico is likely one of the best options. He draws a matchup vs. Shoemaker who’s a pretty decent real life pitcher, but is coming back from injury and and likely won’t go past the 4th or 5th inning. Since the beginning of 2017 though, Shomaker has given up a 37% hard contact rate and .185 ISO to lefties and Delmonico owns a .192 ISO and .332 wOBA during that time. Once Shoemaker is inevitably yanked early, the Angels bullpen is one of the 10 worst in the league this year and is likely to get beat up on. If you need some value, Delmonico is probably your best option if he’s batting near the top of the lineup today.
The Vest Value Catcher on the board
Garver is one of the better hitting catchers on the board today and draws the nuts matchup here. On the year, Garver owns a .226 ISO and .361 wOBA vs. RHP and Lopez has been absolutely terrible this year. Vs. righties, Lopez owns only a 21% k rate, 10.5% walk rate, and is giving up a huge 47.1% hard contact rate. MIN is a great hitter ballpark for righties, an although Lopez has kept the ball of the ground for the most part vs. righties, if Garver can put the ball up in the air he has a good shot of the ball leaving the park here at a bare bones price.
Cheap Lefty Against a High Splits Pitcher
Bruce hasn’t been fantastic this year, but he is due for some positive regression. On the year, his CXwOBA is over 100 points higher than his wOBA vs. RHP. he draws a matchup against Eflin who has some massive splits to lefties (.367 wOBA and .231 ISO to lefties) and is still at a way too low price of 3.7k over on DK. People may just be looking at his numbers this year, but he’s had less that 200 plate appearances and if you look at his 2017 numbers he owned a .273 IOS and .376 wOBA vs. RHP. Don’t fade this guy that should likely be way too low owned on this slate.
An Upside Pitcher in a Good park
I’m not a huge fan of Eflin, but with the amount of ownership that Gio is likely to get, getting a pivot off of him is a necessity. Eflin has been good a points this year, but has some major splits problems (.367 wOBA vs lefties compared to a .281 wOBA to righties) and the Mets lineup is likely to have 4 decent lefties in it. Regardless, Eflin still has a 20% k rate to hitters from both sides of the plate and the upside is here considering the ballpark.
Unexciting But Cheap
I don’t think I’ve rostered any player more often than Logan Forsythe over the last week and a half. Forsythe keeps drawing good matchups, remains extremely cheap, and continues to hit in the top half of the Twins lineup. Even without the platoon advantage Forsythe is a more talented hitter than anyone else you will find in this price range and you can roster him at a weak second base position.
The Game Theory Cheap Pitcher
There isn’t a whole lot in James Shields numbers that will tell you that he’s a great play today, but he is the pivot off of an uber chalk Gio Gonzalez. If you’re going cheap in cash I would not go here, but in tournaments he’s a fantastic play. Shields is likely to come in around 3% owned and he’s had 15+ DK points in 5 of his last 7 starts. Shields has the potential to get 25+ points in a game regardless of the matchup and the weather conditions in Chicago are fantastic for keeping the ball in the park. Currently, the game should have 20 MPH winds blowing in from center and the temp should be under 70. Even with a good Angels offense here, Shields has a chance to outscore Gio by 10 points.
Wishful Thinking
I’m salivating at the thought of Mike Trout, Justin Upton, and Shohei Ohtani teeing up James Shields at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. Shields somehow shut out the Red Sox his last time out but prior to that start had been giving up the long ball at an astounding rate. I’m hoping Shields’ recent performance combined with Coors lead to lower Angels ownership but that’s likely wishful thinking.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton Brewers Debut
Gio Gonzalez is scheduled to make his Milwaukee Brewers debut on Saturday night and he draws a strong matchup against a San Francisco Giants lineup that more closely resembles a Minor League lineup. San Francisco’s collective stats versus LHP via PlateIQ: 23.5 K%, .285 wOBA, .130 ISO. The Giants implied run total is trending downwards and sits at 3.6 at the time of this writing. Gio hasn’t had a strong 2018 campaign but this is a good contextual spot for the southpaw who should be able to capitalize on his low price tag.
Affordable Exposure
A mid-priced hitter leading off in Coors with the platoon advantage? You can’t ask for much more. Dozier’s numbers against lefties this season (91 wRC+, .108 ISO) are more likely noise than anything of substance as the Dodgers second basemen’s career numbers against southpaws are outstanding (132 wRC+, .232 ISO). The Dodgers have the highest implied run total of the slate (5.4) and Dozier offers a way to get affordable exposure to the most explosive offense of the slate.
Choosing Amongst the Trio
Saturday’s main slate pitching options are pretty slim. On Draftkings I think you want to play some combination of Syndergaard, Berrios, and Gio Gonzalez. Throwing Berrios as your SP1 allows you to allocate more of your salary to hitting on a slate that has James Shields pitching and a Coors game. Berrios recent game logs are less than impressive but he’s one of three main slate pitchers with a strikeout rate north of 24% and draws the best matchup of the night against an atrocious Royals offense. PlateIQ has the Royals projected lineup with a collective strikeout rate of 25.9% which is the most whiff-heavy lineup of the night.
The Best Spot for Value
He’s up, he’s down. He’s up, he’s down. Such is life when trying to pick on the home run prone, fly ball nature of James Shields. The current state of the Angels offense makes this an intriguing spot, as you have the pricey power of guys like Trout, Ohtani, and Upton, and you have more value with guys like Fletcher and Fernandez. I do like the value pieces today as home run darts that also allow you to spend up at other spots and/or on the mound, and you can always consider a full stack against Shields. However, I’m a bit lower on that today with the cool, damp weather in Chicago, which benefits Shields more than anything. If I had to rank my interest, I would put Trout and Fernandez as my point per dollar priorities.
A Fine Point Per Dollar Brew Man
Stratton is not normally a pitcher that I love to pick on, but he’s nothing more than a league average arm himself. He has below average strikeouts and a limited skill set, and both LHBs and RHBs have tagged him for hard hits and a line drive rate over 25%. It’s also a negative park shift for Stratton going to Milwaukee. He’s largely splits-neutral, so I will make my decisions here based on price. Travis Shaw has the best point per dollar potential in my opinion, with his strong career power data against RHP. It’s enough to make him a core play for me today, though you aren’t necessarily going wrong if you pivot to Moustakas or Yelich instead — but Yelich will cost you a pretty penny.
Upside in a Favorable Matchup
Everyone seems to be trying to hold Berrios to the standard of him being a true, elite, #1 ace at the major league level. He’s not quite there, and he might never get there, but that’s okay. Everything in our world revolves around matchups and salary cap, and when you look at Berrios’ skill set, his matchup tonight, and his salary, he checks in as one of the better arms on the board. The current version of the Royals strikes out more than the early season one, as they actually own the 10th highest strikeout rate in baseball since the All Star break. The Twins could use some innings out of Berrios tonight after their starter got shelled on Friday, and Berrios still has solid all around numbers, with a SIERA and xFIP in the threes, above average strikeouts, and good splits against hitters from each side of the plate. He’s a top three option in all formats tonight.
Saturday's Top Arm
He’s simply ahead of the pack by a large margin on this slate. I like Jose Berrios in tournaments, but he’s hard to trust given his recent slump. Walker Buehler is pitching at Coors Field. The best combination of safety and upside comes with Syndergaard, who is fresh off a dominant complete game win in his last outing. The Phillies aren’t the best matchup in the league, but Syndergaard clearly has the stuff to transcend any matchup. He has generated more soft contact than he has allowed hard contact this year, and he has a solid 25% strikeout and 5% walk rate. Throw in all the rest of his solid metrics, and he’s a no brainer play here.