DFS Alerts
Daily Bullpen Alert: More than one above a six FIP over the last month
The Orioles (6.41 FIP, 4.5 K-BB%) are still the worst bullpen in the majors over the last month by far (with Andrew Cashner starting in Seattle), but at least they have company above a six FIP now (Nationals 6.09 FIP, 12.5 K-BB%). In fact each of the three next highest bullpen FIPs over the last month behind the Orioles all have around a league average K-BB%. This is a fly ball and home run thing for the Nationals, Twins (5.21 FIP, 13 K-BB%) and Reds (5.04 FIP, 12.1 K-BB%). For those teams, Tanner Roark takes on the Cardinals, Jake Odorizzi is in Houston, and Homer Bailey is in Pittsburgh. The first of those looks like the only situation to avoid. Those are the only teams above a five FIP, but the next highest bullpen can’t say the same about peripherals. The Cardinals (4.75 FIP, 3.9 K-BB%) do have workhorse Miles Mikolas starting in Washington. Once that game gets into the bullpens though, things could get interesting. Jaime Barria is the only other pitcher on the slate averaging five innings or less with more than a few starts. The Angels (4.19 FIP, 11.0 K-BB%) are in Texas tonight.
Low Owned SP2
It’s always tough to guess pitch counts for young pitchers, but Valdez has increased the number of pitches he’s thrown in each of his three starts. He’s been very effective in his three starts, and two of those starts were against LAA. Valdez also draws a great matchup tonight against the Twins. Their projected starting lineup has a .143 ISO with a .302 wOBA and a 22.5% against left-handed pitching this season. Valdez has produced a lot of groundballs, and while he hasn’t had a lot of strikeouts, I think the upside is there in this matchup.
Unsupported BABIP with a great strikeout rate leads tonight's mid and lower priced pitching options
Paying down for pitching, or at least not paying more than $10K, is likely where the minds of most players are at tonight and as far as upside goes, that discussion probably starts with Nick Pivetta (28.2 K%, 3.36 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) and his unfathomable .337 BABIP in Miami tonight. There’s nothing in his batted ball profile that supports the elevated BABIP and he gets a large park upgrade in a strong spot (Marlins 83 wRC+ at home, 86 wRC+ vs RHP). Pivetta costs exactly $8.2K on either site. He’s allowed one run or less in three of his last five starts, but 11 total in the other two. Jordan Zimmermann (20.8 K%, 4.00 SIERA, .327 xwOBA) is having a league average season and while the White Sox’ offense has improved, it’s still a high upside spot (18.8 K-BB% vs RHP, 30.1 K% last seven days) at a low price. Hyun-Jin Ryu (28.6 K%, 3.14 SIERA, .270 xwOBA) is at home against the Mets (81 wRC+, 24.8 K%, 9.2 HR/FB), who have been improving against southpaws (see Rich Hill last night). He has not exceeded 89 pitches in any of his four starts back from the DL and costs $9.2K on DraftKings, but efficiency got him through seven innings last time out and the pitch count could normally get him through six. Mike Leake has become a much more effective contact manager in the second half of the season…well, he was until his last two starts in Oakland and Arizona (11 runs). He costs just $6.2K on DraftKings at home against the Orioles (76 wRC+, 18.6 K-BB% on the road). Miles Mikolas is a workhorse (highest average innings per start on the board) and a great contact manager (.304 xwOBA) in Washington. Michael Kopech struck out just one of 12 Boston batters before the rains came in his last start and just nine of 48 major league batters so far, but allowed just one run in six innings against Detroit two starts back and gets them again tonight. He had a 31.3 K% at AAA this season. Tyler Glasnow has a 33 K% in six starts for the Rays and has pitched into the seventh in two of his last three. He has a massive price discrepancy against the Blue Jays tonight and costs just $6.7K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Jordan Zimmermann, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Miles Mikolas, Mike Leake, Michael Kopech, Tyler Glasnow Are tonight's high priced pitchers worth their cost?
There are 12 games on the Wednesday night slate and just the two pitchers from New York reaching the $10K mark on either site. Both do so on each site. The immediate problem we run into is that both pitchers, going in opposite directions since the All-Star break, are facing extremely potent offenses in Oakland (109 wRC+, 23.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) and in Los Angeles (NL) (113 wRC+, 15.5 K% vs RHP). Luis Severino (28.7 K%, 3.21 SIERA, .309 xwOBA) has actually increased his strikeout rate to 34.2% with a 2.55 SIERA over the last month. His ERA is two full runs higher (4.55) and his xwOBA just 15 points higher than his season rate (.326) over that span. The problem has been home runs (13 of them over his last 10 starts), or more specifically, just a 31.9 GB% over that span. This is not productive for Yankee Stadium and even though he enjoys a significant park upgrade tonight, he faces a lineup with power. The strikeout rate, best on the season and month for any pitcher with more than six starts this season, can not be ignored though. Zack Wheeler (24 K%, 3.87 SIERA, .294 xwOBA) has the lowest aEV on the board (84,7 mph) of anyone with more than two starts. He has a .232 xwOBA over the last month. He’s gone at least seven innings in 10 of his last 16 starts and seven of his last nine with a 2.42 ERA and 2.80 FIP over those 16 outings. If players want to avoid him at that cost due to the matchup, in one of the most negative run environments in baseball by the way, that’s fine. If they look to avoid him because they see this run as a fluke, that would be wrong. Both pitchers are likely usable if projected ownership rates dictate, but neither appears to be an exceptional value in their matchup at current cost.
Other tagged players: Zack Wheeler The Other Game To Target
The games in Coors Field and Arlington are at the top of the board tonight by a wide margin. I’ll start with Coors Field, but want to get plenty of exposure to both the Angels and Rangers in all formats. Kole Calhoun gives you more affordable exposure to the top of this Angels lineup against the low strikeouts and hard hit fly balls of Bartolo Colon. Calhoun’s 44% hard hits trail only Trout on this team and his .209 ISO trails only Trout and Ohtani. He has individual HR upside, and added run scoring potential at the top of this lineup on a 90 degree night in Texas.
Save Salary, Keep The Upside
When I look at this slate, I see the bats in Colorado and Texas as the priority ahead of the expensive pitchers. I would be more than happy roll out Luis Severino and Zack Wheeler, but they are not must plays tonight, and I’d rather focus on the bats. We’ve got plenty of upside from pitchers in the mid-tier, and several of them have strong matchups, starting with Nick Pivetta in Miami. The skills from Pivetta continue to outpace the real life production, but this ballpark and weak Marlins lineup should help him get closer to his 3.36 SIERA rather than his 4.66 ERA. The Marlins have almost nothing in the way of lefty power, and Pivetta’s numbers against righties, 28.8% K, 50% GB, 32% HH should be enough to keep the damage to a minimum, and there’s all kinds of upside at this salary.
A Little On Both Sides
The Rockies side is the higher priority tonight at Coors Field, with the righty bats of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, but the Giants should not be ignored against a pitcher in Antonio Senzatela who has just a 15.4% K rate to left-handed batters. What he offers in terms of decent ground balls and soft contact is offset by the 40% hard hits and 48% fly balls of Brandon Belt. He hits for plenty of power playing in San Francisco, giving his hard hit fly balls this huge ballpark boost is well worth this salary tonight on all sites in all formats, most notably at the low $3,300 tag on FD.
You Know What To Do
The Rockies are on top of the board tonight at home against a left-handed pitcher in Andrew Suarez who allows a dangerous amount of hard contact to right-handed batters. We know the deal with Nolan Arenado at this point. He’s an elite hitter anywhere, anytime, but at home against a lefty, he is as close to a must play as they come. His numbers at Coors Field against lefties this season are cartoonish – 14.8% K, 13.6% BB, 56% HH, .493 ISO, .582 wOBA, 259 wRC+. He’ll be popular, but just play him everywhere and hope that somebody else doesn’t.
An Under the Radar Stack?
The first two games of this Orioles/Mariners series have been quiet, and I doubt we will get a ton of traction on this game in the late night west coast start once again. Andrew Cashner simply isn’t very good anymore, with little ability to control batted balls to hitters from either side of the plate. I’m happy with any Seattle GPP stack in this one, and I will likely stick with the middle of the order. Segura/Cruz/Span is the trio I’ve landed on most often, as this gives you access to power upside as well as some correlation with runs and RBI’s in the middle of the order. Low ownership is also a bonus, and I’m fine with this in any GPP format this evening.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Denard Span
Stack Up These Righties in a Great Park
Andrew Suarez carries very extreme splits, so I will avoid any LHBs that crack the Colorado lineup tonight. However, I am very interest in the right-handed hitters. Suarez has allowed a .352 wOBA and a 44% hard contact rate against RHBs, and that spells trouble in Coors Field, especially since he allows a fair amount of line drives. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are your elite targets, as Arenado owns a .513 wOBA and .401 ISO, while Story owns a .435 wOBA and .333 ISO against left-handed pitching this year, and that even includes road games that are played away from Coors Field! Matt Holliday has been playing against lefties and provides a nice source of salary relief — and he has been surprisingly good since his call up. These three make for a fine stack on this Wednesday night.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Matt Holliday The Train Keeps on Chugging
Zack Wheeler shows absolutely no signs of slowing down, so I will ride the wave until he does. He is fresh off a month of August where he put up ridiculous numbers which included a 1.13 ERA and a 43/8 K/BB ratio in six starts. Although he draws a difficult matchup against the Dodgers this evening, I only hope that serves to lower his ownership in GPP formats. Wheeler does a great job of limiting hard contact and has a fantastic batted ball profile, and I’m willing to roll him out in almost any matchup these days. Don’t overthink this one — the only worry is that the Mets may have a problem giving him run support.
The Best GPP Point Per Dollar Arm
I’m a sucker for Pivetta’s skill set and upside, so it’s no surprise that I love him tonight against the Marlins. It’s rare that we see a pitcher priced so cheaply when said pitcher owns a 28% strikeout rate, 3.36 SIERA, and 3.32 xFIP. He’s almost a guaranteed roster spot for me in this matchup, with the only negative being that the Marlins don’t strike out a ton with their current roster composition. Still, it’s a great matchup for run prevention, and Pivetta needs a strong performance with the Phillies fading in the playoff race. He’s a fine GPP selection on a points per dollar basis this evening.
An Affordable Stack in a Great Matchup
The current state of the Angels lineup isn’t exactly great, but they do carry some upside with a positive park shift in Texas and a matchup against the aging gas can that is Bartolo Colon. The price tags are very affordable for everyone in this lineup not named Mike Trout, so not only do we get some upside, but we would be able to get some additional high-end plays in our lineups. David Fletcher and Jose Fernandez have been hitting in the middle of the order and carry cheap price tags, while guys like Simmons and Ward are also reasonable plays. Of course, you can certainly play Trout if you have the salary available, too. I really like the flexibility of this stack in a great matchup.
Uncommonly high run line
The Dodgers, like the Mariners, have an uncommonly high implied run line for a west coast game (4.92), not to mention the most negative environment on the west coast. While the fact is that Jason Vargas has been pitching much better of late (3.31 ERA, 3.88 SIERA last 30 days), as has the Mets’ bullpen, he still has a .385 wOBA against RHBs this year. At least some exposure to Manny Machado (148 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP this season), Justin Turner (189 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Matt Kemp (124 wRC+, .237 ISO) is a probably warranted, though the total in this game may be a tad aggressive.
Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Manny Machado, Jason Vargas Unlikely to be slowed by a tough park
The Mariners are one of two lineups with an uncommonly high 4.75 implied run line for a west coast game, in an extremely negative run environment in Seattle. Alex Cobb has been pitching better of late, but still does have a .369 wOBA vs RHBs this season and the success of Mitch Haniger (138 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (140 wRC+, .255 ISO) against same-handed pitching this year transcends the park limitations.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz