DFS Alerts
Really Like The Advanced Numbers
Daniel Palka continues to have a massive strikeout rate on the season, but I love to attack his upside against pitchers with smaller strikeout rates. He has a .249 ISO with a .475 CXwOBA and a 92.7mph average exit velocity against righties this season. Fulmer has a decent strikeout rate, but it’s at 18.8% on the season against lefties. He has a .223 ISO with a 37.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters on the season. With the lack of value plays on this 7-game slate, I’m looking for home run upside from my cheap guys, and that’s exactly what we get with this matchup for Palka.
Chasing The Upside
Matt Harvey continues to throw his sinking 2-seam fastball, and hitters continue to crush it. He’s really struggled with left-handed hitters this season to the tune of a .351 wOBA and a .218 ISO. We don’t have a ton of value on this smaller slate, so I’m attacking more upside with my value bats on this slate. Dickerson his hit sinkers and fastballs well since 2016, and I like his upside in this matchup. He has a .190 ISO with a .398 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching on the season.
Good Batted Ball Profile Here
We don’t have a ton of value on this smaller slate, so I’m attacking more upside with my value bats on this slate. Urena has struggled with left-handed hitters more than righties this season, and I think some of these lefties are in play against him. Urena has a .329 wOBA with a .177 ISO and a 41% hard-hit rate against lefties in 2018. Nick Williams has a .207 ISO with a .464 CXwOBA against righties this season. Williams has a .411 CXwOBA with a .214 ISO against sinkers in 80 balls in play in his short career. Urena throws his sinker 45% of the time this season.
Safer SP2 Option
If you’re looking for a cheaper SP2 option with a nice floor, I think Keuchel against the Twins is a safer matchup. The projected starters have a .167 ISO with a .304 wOBA and a 25.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Keuchel doesn’t have a big strikeout rate, but he limits hard contact and limits the walks. On top of that, he has a 53.7% ground ball rate with a 131.1 average hit distance on the season. I don’t love the upside here, but I do think he puts up a quality start and I like his chances to pick up a win in this spot.
Great Matchup To Attack
It’s been an up and down season for Vince Velasquez, but he draws an excellent matchup against the Marlins. The Marlins are projected to have at least five right-handed hitters, and the three projected lefties have a .075 ISO with a .246 wOBA against righties. Velasquez has struggled with lefties this season, but these lefties in this ballpark don’t worry me. He has a .274 wOBA with a .102 ISO and a 28.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He’s a nice value option, and he sets up as a top option on this slate in this matchup.
Time for Sunday Salsa
Matt Carpenter and his magic salsa have been on on a well-documented tear the second half of the season, and today he finds himself in an incredible matchup against Anthony Desclafani and the Reds. Targeting Desclafani with left handed power has been a profitable strategy this season, as he has allowed a .363 wOBA and 2.68 HR/9 to LHH thus far. Carpenter is already strongest against RHP – with a .402 wOBA and 51.4 FB% vs RHP on the year – and is a likely HR candidate when you pair his strengths with Deslafani’s weaknesses. Though he isn’t cheap, look to Carpenter as a strong bet to pay off his price tag in this excellent matchup.
Arlington Exposure
The MIN/TEX game is only on DraftKings’ main slate but is worth touching on as it’s one of the friendliest offensive environments of the day. Sunday’s game is going to be a battle of the bull pens as Gabriel Moya and Yohander Mendez are listed as probable starters. Andrus will immediately have the platoon advantage against Moya but that’s not why I’m interested in him – I’m interested in him because he’s cheap at a weak position and hitting toward the top of the order for a team expected to score a lot of runs. You’ll have to look elsewhere at the shortstop position on FanDuel but Andrus is likely to be a staple of my cash lineups on DK.
Best Against the Worst
I typically don’t like just writing up the top priced hitters and saying they’re good plays, because, well, that’s obvious. But I do think the context of Sunday’s main slate is going to allow you to spend up on hitters, especially if you fade Aaron Nola in a less than ideal matchup against the Cubs. Enter Mookie Betts versus James Shields. There’s not really a whole lot to say here – Shields isn’t very good (4.90 SIERA) and has given up 12 HRs in his last seven games. Mookie is the most expensive hitter on the slate but I am still going to do what I can do get him into my lineup.
Continual Disappointment
I have an admission to make: I have played Giancarlo Stanton every time he has been on the main slate this past week. It has not gone well. Stanton legitimately won’t get a string of more favorable matchups than what he’s seen over the past six days or so but he was only able to get two extra base hits in 23 ABs. Well, Stanton once again has a good matchup on Sunday against Tigers southpaw Matt Boyd. Boyd is essentially a league average lefty which is exactly the type of pitcher Stanton should feast on. Stanton destroys lefties – he’s the owner of a career 173 wRC+ and .340 ISO against them.
Most Talented
On a slate with so many terrible pitching options it makes sense to just take the most talented pitcher regardless of the matchup. Nola is far and away the most skilled pitcher taking the mound for Sunday’s main slate – he’s the owner of a 2.10 ERA (3.49 SIERA), 25.8% strikeout rate, 24% hard-hit rate and 12 SwStr%. While the Cubs look like more of a neutral matchup on paper (103 wRC+, 21.1 K% vs RHP), they’re starting to get healthier and are a tough draw for the Phillies right hander. I wouldn’t consider paying up for Nola at these price tags on a normal slate but the reality is the lack of decent options puts Nola squarely into cash game consideration.
Cheap in Miami
Sunday’s pitching slate is all time bad. Aaron Nola is the clear top option but is priced as such. Things after Nola get ugly…and fast. A general rule of thumb I live by when choosing a SP2 is: if all options are terrible, just take the one that’s the cheapest. SRF isn’t the literal cheapest but is the cheapest option you can consider rostering. The Blue Jays righty struggled in the two spot starts he received in the Majors earlier this season but has pitched extremely well in 85.1 innings pitched in AAA. SRF has shown strikeout upside in AAA with a 27.1% strikeout rate and while that’s unlikely to translate directly into the Majors it’s nice to see that he’s able to generate swings and misses. Control is going to be SRF’s biggest issue so it’s a plus that he’s facing a team that has drawn the fifth fewest walks this season versus RHP (7.2 BB%). Reid-Foley doesn’t have much of a floor nor ceiling but neither does virtually any option priced less than Nola on this atrocious slate.
Punting for the SP #2 Choice
This will likely be the place where people land for their affordable SP #2 choice today. It makes a lot of sense, because the opportunity cost isn’t all that high. What are you missing out on by fading the DeSclafani’s and Lynn’s of the world, all of whom cost quite a bit more? Reid-Foley is a solid 23 year old prospect who posted an ERA of 3.90, an xFIP of 3.36, and owned a K/9 mark well over 10.00 in 16 starts at the AAA level this season. He struggled in his first two big league starts, but this is essentially a glorified minor league game against the current version of the Marlins. His strikeout upside might be a little bit limited in this matchup, but the point per dollar potential is definitely better than what you get with some other options. He’s a fine second pitcher choice in any format.
Your Top Pitcher By a Wide Margin
Have you seen the other pitching options today? Feel free to scroll down and browse if you haven’t. It’s borderline insanity to list anyone other than Nola as the top pitcher today. There isn’t a major weakness in his overall profile, and arguing for anybody else fits the definition is trying to be too cute. Nola generates a lot of soft contact and allows hard contact just 24% of the time. His strikeout rate is well above league average. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters. He still owns an ERA in the twos. It’s Nola by a country mile on this slate, even against the Cubs. Fire him up as your SP #1 option in all formats.
Fire Up The Lefty Pop
This is one of my favorite spots of the day. It’s a small sample size, but we have seen extreme splits so far at the MLB level for Jefry Rodriguez. He has allowed a .417 wOBA and 40% hard contact rate to left-handed batters, and the new-look Brewers offense carries plenty of lefty thump. I love the trio of Yelich, Shaw, and Moustakas today, and I have tagged Yelich and Shaw as core plays. They both have tons of pop against righties, and Yelich has been locked in at the plate. On a shorter than usual main slate, the Brewers are top selections for me.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw It's Groundhog Day... Play Him Again!
I wrote up the Royals as a top offense yesterday because they were facing a bad pitcher, and here we are again. This team doesn’t have a ton of talent, but anything can happen in matchups like this. Hess does do a decent job of limiting hard contact, but he has underwhelming stuff and has a SIERA and xFIP well over 5.00. His low ground ball rate will leave him susceptible to the long ball at times, so we once again have to discuss Ryan O’Hearn. For the third straight day, I will be prioritizing Ryan O’Hearn as a value. Since joining the major league roster, Ryan O’Hearn has a .346 batting average, .443 on-base percentage, .404 ISO, and .492 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Continue to fire him up until his price catches up to his production.