DFS Alerts

Pitching tactics could backfire against pair who hits same-handed pitching well

Diego Castillo will start for the Rays, but he hasn’t faced more than 10 batters in an outing this year. Jalen Beeks is scheduled to work the bulk of the game and the Braves are actually more proficient against LHP. RHBs have a 51.2 GB% and just a 24.4 Hard% against Beeks this season, but a 3.5 K-BB% gives them a .357 wOBA (xwOBA is .333). It’s actually LHBs that have a 52.4 Hard% and 33.3 GB% against Beeks with an xwOBA 147 points higher than actual against him. Considering Freddie Freeman (157 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Nick Markakis (124 wRC+, .166 ISO) have hit LHP well this season, they would seem to have an advantage no matter which pitcher they face, as would Ronald Acuna (144 wRC+, .279 ISO). Tyler Flowers (244 wRC+, .271 ISO) may also be worth a look if he may potentially get multiple looks at a southpaw.

Struggling rookie in a terrible spot

Kohl Stewart has walked seven and struck out just nine of 60 batters faced at the major league level so far, throwing a total of 11.2 innings over three starts. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .360 wOBA against him, though LHBs have put the ball on the ground 63% of the time on contact (44.4 Hard%). He’s pitching in Cleveland tonight with the home team owning a 5.69 implied run line that’s second best on the board. Beyond Jose Ramirez (179 wRC+, .354 ISO vs RHP this season), Francisco Lindor (129 wRC+, .254 ISO), Michael Brantley (140 wRC+, .183 ISO) and two power hitting first basemen, Melky Cabrera (95 wRC+, .153 ISO) and Jason Kipnis (82 wRC+, .133 ISO) may even be viable in this spot as well. Both have a wRC+ of at least 150 over the last week, along with a hard hit rate above 40%.

Power hitting catcher hitting cleanup and a great value on FanDuel

Gio Gonzalez allowed just one run to the Mets in seven innings last time out, but still struck out just two and still has just a 2.8 K-BB% over his last 14 starts. The Phillies (5.01) are currently the last of four teams above five implied runs tonight. They line up entirely right-handed against Gonzalez because batters from that side have a .347 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. Wilson Ramos (161 wRC+, .263 ISO) is the top bat in the lineup by a mile against LHP this season. Both he and Rhys Hoskins (122 wRC+, .147 ISO) cost $4.9K on DraftKings, but the cleanup hitting catcher costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. Jose Bautista (104 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Carlos Santana (104 wRC+, .200 ISO) are the only other bats in the lineup who have had shown significant pop against LHP this year.

Top run line, but just one above average hitter in the lineup

Ryan Borucki broke out of a three game slide (14 ER – 9.2 IP – 9 BB – 3 K) with 6.2 innings of two run ball against the Phillies (five strikeouts). He has just a 14.5 K% on the season and RHBs have a .337 wOBA against him. The problem is that the Baltimore lineup has just one batter above a 90 wRC+ vs LHP this season. That’s Jonathan Villar (111 wRC+. .210). Craig Gentry (76 wRC+, .105 ISO) may have some value at a low price near the top of the lineup if salary savings is a necessity. This Baltimore lineup has a 4.57 run line that’s currently top six on this board, but it’s difficult to decipher where all this offense is going to originate from.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Several poor bullpens in dangerous spots

There are currently four bullpens above a five FIP over the last month, three of them active on tonight’s slate. The Orioles (6.35 FIP, 7.1 K-BB%) are still a full run worse than any other bullpen. They are once again at home, backing Alex Cobb against the Blue Jays. Cobb has gone at least seven in three of his last four starts though. The Nationals (5.33 FIP, 14.6 K-BB%) will back the erratic Gio Gonzalez with a chance they could see a heavy workload. The Reds (5.11 FIP, 9.8 K-BB%) have recently snuck above the five FIP mark as well. Matt Harvey takes on a dangerous Milwaukee offense in a dangerous park. Another spot to watch in is in Cleveland. Twins’ starter Kohl Stewart has not completed five innings in any of his three starts. The bullpen has a 4.52 FIP and 13.7 K-BB% over the last month.

Wednesday night’s slate does not feature a single $10K pitcher on either site. Freddy Peralta is the highest price pitcher on the board at $9.7K on DraftKings and also the only one above a 25% strikeout rate. He was very efficient against a Reds’ lineup that did not have many quality LHBs to attack him with last time out (7 IP – 0 R – 2 BB – 7 K). LHBs have a wOBA more than 150 points higher than RHBs against him. It’s a similar lineup he’ll face tonight with the addition of Scott Schebler. Zack Godley has the next highest strikeout rate (24%) and could be the chalk in San Francisco (88 wRC+, 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP). Sean Newcomb is the only other pitcher above a league average strikeout rate (22.2%). He shut down Miami in his last start, but had been struggling previous to that. The Rays have a 23.1 K% vs LHP and lose the DH, but also have a team 141 wRC+ over the last week. Miles Mikolas is a low strikeout (17.1%) contact manager (85.4 mph aEV) against a power deficient, contact prone Pirates’ offense (19.7 K% vs RHP) at a cost below $8K. C.C. Sabathia has struck out 27 of his last 72 batters and is in a high upside matchup against the White Sox (26.5 K% vs LHP). There are no heavy favorites on this pitching board, though the above mentioned arms may be decent values. There are also no arms that players should fear using bats against either.

It's Getting Hot in Texas

The Dodgers were the top stacking option last night and they didn’t disappoint by scoring eight runs against the Rangers. They have so much working for them in this series. They see a favorable ballpark shift, they get to use the DH, and they draw another favorable matchup. On the season, Mike Minor has allowed a .358 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. All of the righties in this Dodgers’ lineup are viable tonight.

One of my Favorites DFS Pastimes

Over the last few seasons, I’ve developed a few traditions when it comes to MLB DFS. One of them is stacking offenses that face Matt Harvey, especially ones with plenty of left-handed hitters. In 2018, Harvey has allowed a .354 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. Travis Shaw stands out as an elite play in all formats, as he boasts a .396 xwOBA and a .287 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Struggling with Consistency, but Offers a High Ceiling

If you only look at Newcomb’s walk rate (11%) and SIERA (4.57), you wouldn’t want to come near him tonight, even though options are limited at pitcher. The good news is that he draws one of the best matchups on the board. He is pitching at home in SunTrust Park and he faces the Rays, whose projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 24% against left-handed pitching.

Flying Under the Radar

For whatever reason, people refuse to play CC Sabathia in DFS. His recent boost in strikeouts isn’t likely going to be sustainable, but on the season he owns a 3.30 ERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the White Sox projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .300 with a strikeout rate of 25% against left-handed pitching. Sabathia is a massive favorite, he throws a lot of strikes, and this is an elite matchup. What’s not to like?

Home Run Upside Here

I love the Dodgers again tonight, and I really like this spot for Matt Kemp in particular. Minor has a .209 ISO with a 46.1% fly ball rate and 38.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this season, and he also has a strikeout rate under 20% against righties on the year. Meanwhile, Kemp has a .250 ISO with a .532 CXwOBA against left-handed pitching on the year, and he also has a 46.2% hard-hit rate with a 48.1% fly ball rate against lefties. There is going to be a lot of hard contact here, and with both the pitcher and the hitter having high fly ball rates, there is a lot of upside here.

He Presents Value At This FanDuel Price

Sean Newcomb continues to use his changeup to keep right-handed hitters off balance. He has a .298 wOBA with a .105 ISO and a 20.9% strikeout rate against righties, and Newcomb is also inducing 20.9% soft contact against right-handed hitters this season. Tampa will lose the DH spot tonight, which should force Bauers and Choi out of the lineup. Usually I’d want the lefties in there, but Newcomb has shown reverse splits all season, so the more righties the better here. Cron is the only projected starter with an ISO over .200 and a wOBA over .350. The projected starters have a .121 ISO with a .302 wOBA and a 23.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Avoid The Chalk, Keep The Upside

We’ve got three obvious high total offenses tonight with the Dodgers, Yankees and Indians. If you want to spread out a little further, the Phillies are an intriguing team all around, and are drastically underpriced on FanDuel. Gio Gonzalez has just a 17.7% K rate with 12.1% walks against righties and his moderate 48% ground ball rate is not enough for the 51% fly balls from Rhys Hoskins. In addition to home run power, Hoskins on base upside is through the roof with more walks than strikeouts against lefties this season.

Lefty Power in a Hitter's Park

Matt Harvey is not as awful as he was last year or even earlier this seaosn, but there’s still not much going on here against left-handed batters. Even in his respectable performance since the All-Star Break, he has allowed 39% hard hits with below average strikeouts. For the season, he has allowed a .212 ISO on 42% fly balls and 39% hard hits to lefties. Travis Shaw has dual position eligibility on DK and is farily priced in the middle of a powerful lineup. He has a big .285 ISO on 40% hard hits and 47% fly balls against righties this season with a HR every 12.8 AB.

Let's Hope He Plays Today

I talked about Matt Adams yesterday, and of course they gave him the night off in a great spot. I’m hoping he’s back in the lineup tonight because he’s still cheap, and we need some solid value bats on this slate. Adams has a .269 ISO with a .373 wOBA and a 48.2% fly ball rate against right-handed pitching this season. Williams has done a great job at limiting hard contact and power against left-handed hitters this season. With that said, he has a 12% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season, but his 5.34 xFIP suggests he has some regression coming against lefties.