DFS Alerts
Highest aEV on the board and a terrible bullpen behind him
In a negative run environment in Oakland, the A’s have a 5.47 implied run line that’s surpassed by only one other team at Coors. Ariel Jurado has allowed a 93.2 mph aEV in five starts and the bullpen hasn’t been much better (5.15 FIP last 30 days). LHBs have a .460 wOBA against him so far and batters from either side of the plate are above a 43 Hard%. Each of the first five batters in the order for Oakland are above a 125 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Nick Martini (135 wRC+, .141 ISO) is the only one below a .215 ISO. Khris Davis (149 wRC+, .316 ISO) and Matt Olson (140 wRC+, .300 ISO) are your top pieces.
Other tagged players: Matt Olson, Ariel Jurado, Nick Markakis
High power bats against a struggling pitcher
Tyler Anderson has not had a good month (7.16 ERA, 4.91 SIERA), but the Padres are implied for just 4.45 implied runs, despite having a few bats with power against LHP. Christian Villanueva (203 wRC+, .407 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Hunter Renfroe (131 wRC+, .309 ISO) are certainly worth playing here, despite Anderson’s .304 wOBA against RHBs. Franmil Reyes (166 wRC+, .323 ISO) and Wil Myers (101 wRC+, .222 ISO) may be worth a shot as well.
Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Wil Myers, Tyler Anderson Addison Russell (shoulder inflammation) scratched Tuesday
Russell has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers due to right shoulder inflammation. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Tommy La Stella, who will handle the designated hitter duties and slot directly into Russell’s vacated ninth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Cubs lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jordan Zimmermann on the road this evening.
As reported by: Carrie Muskat via Twitter Other tagged players: Tommy La Stella
Weather concern in a couple of spots on Tuesday night
Kevin’s forecast has been updated for Tuesday night and there is some concern in a couple of spots. Players can read the entire report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers will get the latest updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Highly rated prospect making his debut tonight
Michael Kopech may be the most interesting arm on a somewhat lackluster board tonight. The #15 prospect in baseball according to the latest Fangraphs update in June, makes his major league debut against the Twins. He has an electric fastball and a slider that may already be above average, which have led to a 31.3 K% in 24 AAA starts this season. He’s just $6K on FanDuel, but carries an aveage price tag of $7.6K on DraftKings. Vegas isn’t buying the early hype and has the Twins for 4.58 implied runs tonight, on the top half of the board. Kopech has upside that’s not available in a lot of other spots on the board and at a fraction of cost where it is. Current ownership projections (available to premium subscribers) don’t see him being very popular tonight. If that’s going to be the case, this is an arm players have to consider.
Lots of hard contact and few strikeouts
Felix Pena allows a lot of hard contact (42.1% 95+ mph EV) with a cratering strikeout rate as well (14.7% last 30 days). LHBs have pounded him for a .364 wOBA this year, which makes Eduardo Escobar (139 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and David Peralta (142 wRC+, .238 ISO) premium plays tonight. RHBs have a 44.9 Hard% and xwOBA 30 points above his .278 mark against them as well though. That makes A.J. Pollock (128 wRC+, .245 ISO), in the leadoff spot, and Paul Goldschmidt (126 wRC+, .217 ISO) part of a great stack if you can afford it.
Other tagged players: David Peralta, Felix Pena, David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt Highest run line, but top pen and potential weather issues at Coors
No surprise to find the Rockies well atop the board at 6.05 runs against a lefty at Coors. Nolan Arenado (238 wRC+, .432 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Trevor Story (149 wRC+, .308 ISO) are obligatory plays in this situation. Something to consider though, Robbie Erlin has a reverse split this season (RHBs .256 wOBA, 25.8 Hard% – LHBs.321 wOBA, 45.5 Hard%). That should put Charlie Blackmon (104 wRC+, .156 ISO) on your radar if he wasn’t already, but there are additional factors worth considering here. One is some risk in the weather forecast. The other is that the Padres enter the game with the top bullpen by FIP (3.01) and K-BB (23.7%) over the last 30 days.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Robbie Erlin Torched by LHBs and facing four above a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last year
The Brewers are near the top of the board at 5.35 implied runs because LHBs have absolutely pummeled Sal Romano this year (.387 wOBA, 42.6 Hard%). Christian Yelich (138 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top overall bat on this slate. Their second best bat against RHP, Eric Thames (123 wRC+, .289 ISO) is batting sixth for some reason. Travis Shaw (119 wRC+, .258 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (97 wRC+, .202 ISO) are quality plays in this spot as well.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas, Sal Romano Has Vegas underestimated this lineup?
The Braves have just a 3.84 implied run line in Pittsburgh. The two through six batters are all left-handed and above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. LHBs have a .365 wOBA against Ivan Nova this year with an xwOBA that’s even 28 points higher. The lone RHB in the top half of the lineup is leadoff man Ronald Acuna (147 wRC+, .274 ISO), who leads the lineup with a 202 wRC+ and 61.9 Hard% over the last week. This Atlanta lineup doesn’t have a lot of power, Freddie Freeman (137 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Ozzie Albies (103 wRC+, .192 ISO) are the top power bats from the left-side, but this is a spot where Vegas may be under-estimating the Braves.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Ivan Nova, Ronald Acuna Middle infield power in a favorable spot against a reverse platoon arm
Only two teams have a higher run line than the Cubs at 5.35. Kevin’s forecast has winds blowing out to left-center (10-15 mph) and Jordan Zimmermann has a reverse split this year (RHBs .347 wOBA, 38.7 Hard%, 29.6 GB%). Considering that he is no longer missing bats (14.4 K% last 30 days), the most interesting bat in this lineup is Javier Baez (118 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). He’s the only RHB in the lineup above a .170 ISO vs RHP over that span. He’s also the most expensive Cub on DraftKings, but is $1K less on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Jordan Zimmermann Massive platoon split, but a top LHB dropped in the order
Shane Bieber has an overall 19.1 K-BB% and some massive platoon splits. LHBs have a .397 and 48.6 Hard% against him. Naturally, the Red Sox have dropped Mitch Moreland (111 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) down to fifth. Andrew Benintendi (133 wRC+, .188 ISO) is the only other LHB among the first seven in the lineup tonight. You definitely want some of him. RHBs have just a .278 wOBA and 54.5 GB% against Bieber. That may not be enough to take Mookie Betts (153 wRC+, .259 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (196 wRC+, .396 ISO) off the board at Fenway, but considering some cooler temperatures, it may make you wonder about the value in paying such a high price tonight.
Other tagged players: Shane Bieber, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi Three HRs in his last two games and facing the most HR prone pitcher on the board
Dyaln Bundy has allowed 30 HRs in 23 starts. While 18 of the 30 HRs have been surrendered to RHBs, LHBs have a .385 wOBA against him that’s 65 points higher than RHBs. This kind of works out for a Toronto team implied for 4.88 runs anyway, as the only three batters in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year (and also the only three above a .190 ISO) all bat from the left-hand side. It’s Curtis Granderson (107 wRC+, .193 ISO) in the leadoff spot, but then players are going to have to choose between Justin Smoak (129 wRC+, .238 ISO) or Kendrys Morales (110 wRC+, .198 ISO). The latter is cheaper, homered three times in his last two games and has a 315 wRC+ over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Curtis Granderson, Dylan Bundy Very Low Owned 9 Hitter
There is a lot of good value on FanDuel tonight, but the one guy that really stands out to me is Jackie Bradley Jr. He’s $2,500 and he should bat ninth, which likely means no one will play him tonight. Bieber has a .399 wOBA with a .243 ISO and a 47.6% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters since being called up. Bradley Jr. has a .197 ISO with a .456 CXwOBA and a 39.7% hard-hit rate against righties this season. I really like the wrap around stack with the Red Sox tonight, but I don’t mind a low owned JBJ as a one off play on FanDuel.
It's Really Not That Bad
It’s been a rough season for the Giants, but at these prices, they present some decent value in this matchup tonight. Steven Matz has really struggled with right-handed hitters this season. He has a .345 wOBA with a .222 ISO and a 38.8% hard-hit rate against righties in 371 PAs. Longoria has always been good against left-handed pitching, and that has shown a lot again this season. He has a .226 ISO with a .363 wOBA and a 45% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. He doesn’t strike out a lot, which makes him an interesting play on the road where he should at least get four at bats tonight.
Right Back To The Well
I feel like I could just copy and paste my write-up from yesterday on Piscotty, but I’m not going to do that. It’s a very similar spot to yesterday for Oakland, and after getting to Colon early, they could get the weaker part of the bullpen tonight. Jurado hasn’t missed many bats since being called up, and he relies a lot on his sinker. He has a 4.2% swinging strike rate and an 89.9% contact rate. Piscotty has a .196 ISO with a .424 CXwOBA against righties this season and continues to hit the ball hard with a 45.6% hard-hit rate. Oakland is a top stack on the slate for me again tonight, and I really like this the 4-5-6 hitters again.