DFS Alerts

Over 20% Is A Problem

When paying down tonight, I’m looking for pure upside plays, and Ji-Man Choi fits that build for me in this spot. He has a .234 ISO with a .364 wOBA and a .523 CXwOBA with a 46.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. We don’t have a lot of offenses to love on this slate, so I’m starting to warm up to the Rays more and more as the day goes along. Junis has a .352 wOBA with a .196 ISO and a 19.1% strikeout rate against lefties this season. The thing that’s standing out to me is the hard contact he allows while not getting much soft contact. His hard to soft contact ratio is 22.1%, and any time that number is over 20%, it’s a problem.

Too Cheap For This Spot

On FanDuel, if you can’t quite afford both Blackmon and Arenado, you can get right in between them with a savings with the contact skills of D.J. LeMahieu. With Nix unable to miss bats, LeMahieu should be getting the ball in play here with Blackmon likely on base ahead of him and big bats behind him ready to hit him in. Because he’s not a big power threat, I would prefer LeMahieu in cash games and Rockies stacks more than as a one-off, but he’s playable anywhere at this salary.

Don't Overthink It

I’m going to put both Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado as Core Plays, realizing that it may not be possible to fit both together in all lineups in all formats. The Rockies are so far ahead of the rest of the field tonight that getting at least one of these top Colorado bats is a must in cash games, and they are scary fades in tournaments. Jacob Nix is a kid who throws strikes but doesn’t have much swing and miss ability. He was simply an average strikeout pitcher at Double-A, and allowing balls in play at Coors Field is always a dangerous proposition. If choosing between the Colorado studs, I slightly prefer Arenado as the better all-around hitter, but I would let positional needs dictate your choice here as there are some other good third baseman at a savings tonight.

No One Is Playing This Guy Tonight

Trying to find a value hitter with low ownership is going to be tough tonight with so many options to pay up for. One of my favorite boom/bust type plays tonight is Brandon Guyer. He has a .253 ISO with a .372 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, and he has an 84.2% contact rate against them. It’s always risky taking a guy that could get PH for, but the upside is certainly worth a shot at this price. He’s a very good low-ball hitter, and Brian Johnson throws a majority of his pitches low and outside. This doesn’t always work out, but the upside at this low-price tag makes it worth a shot in large field tournaments.

Great Matchup For This Value Bat

The Cubs are a top offense for me tonight, and I’ll really like the right-handed hitters that are in the lineup. Liriano has a .379 wOBA with a .204 ISO and a 35.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. He has really struggled with command, and it’s been one of his worst seasons against righties in particular. David Bote has a small sample size in the Majors, but the stats look promising, as he has a .188 ISO with a .381 wOBA and a .559 CXwOBA in 40 PAs against lefties. He should hit third or fourth tonight for the Cubs, and I love his value at this price point.

Don't Overthink It

Time and again, we have seen young pitchers go into Coors Field and have problems. I wouldn’t expect that to be any different for 22 year-old Jacob Nix. He has a solid pedigree and lots of potential, but he doesn’t have much experience above Double-A ball. A move from Double-A to Coors Field is quite the leap, and I’m fine with any and all the Rockies’ bats tonight. Blackmon is my first choice given his home splits against RHP, while Arenado is also a high-end option. The Rockies have a massive implied team total, so you can stack anywhere from 1-8 here.

Rolling The Dice In This Matchup

If you’re looking for a cheaper pitcher with a high ceiling but has a little more risk, Jon Gray is your guy today. It’s always risky when taking a pitcher in Coors Field, but it makes a lot of sense in this matchup tonight. The projected starters for the Padres have a .151 ISO with a .318 wOBA and a 24.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Renfroe is the only projected starter that has an ISO over .200 against righties this season.

Jon Gray has posted a 3.24 xFIP with a 27.4% strikeout rate while only walking 6.6% of hitters. He also has a 13.8% swinging strike rate with a 68.3% contact rate. Gray has a lot of upside in this matchup, and if he was in Petco for this game he would be 40% owned at this price. I doubt he gets over 20% owned in Coors tonight.

The Best Pitchers' Ump In This Game As Well

We have some great mid-tier pitchers to choose from tonight, but I think Lance Lynn against the Marlins has the highest floor. He gets a massive ballpark shift and he’s getting a league shift to the NL. The projected starters for the Marlins have a .158 ISO with a .303 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He’s projected to face five righties and the pitcher’s spot. The three lefties have a combined .090 ISO and .263 wOBA against righties this season. Lynn has a .302 wOBA with a .110 ISO and a 28.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He’s struggled with walks and lefties, and I don’t see either of those issues being a problem in this start tonight.

A Struggling Offense With Affordable Prices and a Juicy Matchup

There isn’t a ton of obvious value on this slate tonight, so I’ll lump the Cubs’ value bats together as top plays and/or as a sneaky GPP stack. This team is going to break out at some point, as they have scoerd exactly one run in five straight games. That has the prices down on their hitters, and they face a consistently inconsistent lefty in Francisco Liriano, who simply can’t throw strikes on a regular basis. David Bote, Albert Almora, and Willson Contreras are all dirt cheap, making the Cubs an intriguing GPP stack tonight that will also allow you to spend up in other spots of your lineup. All three of these value bats have wOBA marks over .355 against LHP this year, and of course you could also add Javier Baez if you are looking to spend up a little more.

A Fine Pivot Away from the Chalk

Don’t be fooled by any talk that Jon Gray will be low owned tonight, if that narrative starts to flow around. It won’t be the case. Everyone knows about Gray’s elite metrics and matchup against the Padres. Even though it’s Coors Field, Gray will be a popular mid-range pick. I’ll swerve to Lynn as my preferred option in this range. His problems have always been magnified against left-handed batters, but the only lefties he will have to face tonight are likely going to be Rafael Ortega, Derek Dietrich, J.T. Riddle, and maybe Magneuris Sierra. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of lefties. Lynn owns an above average strikeout rate and should be able to control the walks against this young lineup. It’s a bit nerve-wracking with him, but I think he puts up a top five pitching score tonight.

A Top GPP Selection on a Wide Open Slate

I’ll side with Syndergaard as my top pitching option on tonight’s slate. The stolen bases are always a problem because of his inability to hold runners, but everything else is borderline elite — 25% strikeouts, 5% walks, 26% soft contact allowed, 21% hard contact allowed, and a SIERA and xFIP in the low threes. He can be used with confidence against a weak Giants lineup that is now without Buster Posey.

The Mid-Tier Is Solid As Well

There are good choices in all pricing tiers tonight, and in the mid-tier, Lance Lynn and Jon Gray are likely to be the popular options. While I like Gray’s skill set and matchup with the Padres, I just can’t make a good case to play a pitcher in Coors Field when we can get a similarly skilled pitcher in Miami with Bill Miller behind the plate. Lynn’s biggest issue is walks, and the Marlins have the lowest walk rate in the league against right-handed pitching which should help him overcome that issue here. And with the lack of power in this Marlins lineup, it’s just another edge to Lynn over Gray, who has had everything go his way in the BABIP category since being recalled from Triple-A.

The Best Of A Strong Group

The top of the pitching ranks are tightly bunched tonight with five pitchers that could be called aces, all at a fair and similar price point. What looks like the best combination of skills and matchup is Walker Buehler at home against the Cardinals. It’s not an easy matchup, but still far better than what Carlos Carrasco is dealing with, and while Buehler is always some risk for a short outing, he’s in better shape there than Stephen Strasburg in his first start off the DL. Buehler has been nothing but solid all year with 26.5% strikeouts, 6% walks and 53% ground balls with a lot of soft contact to righties that should help him against this right-handed heavy St. Louis lineup.

Mike Leake (illness) scratched Tuesday; Nick Vincent will start in his place

Leake is battling an illness and consequentially won’t make his previously scheduled start for the Seattle Mariners in Tuesday’s home matchup against the Houston Astros due to the aforementioned ailment. He’ll be replaced on the mound by Nick Vincent, who, like Leake, is a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump won’t alter the projections of the Astros hitters in any significant fashion. However, with Vincent making his first career “start”, this contest sets up as a clear bullpen game for Seattle, and they even made a corresponding move by recalling left-handed pitcher Ross Detwiler from AAA, making him the likeliest candidate to follow Vincent’s brief stint as the opener. That said, still be sure to double check out the projections in LineupHQ and the Starting Lineups page for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for tonight’s main slate.

Start of Tuesday's ATL-PIT game will be delayed due to rain

The start of the matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Kevin Gausman not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, pitchers and hitters from this contest remain firmly in play for all formats given the minimal chance of a late postponement.