DFS Alerts
Top of the order with pop against a pitcher without much of a platoon split
The Reds @ Tigers has both teams sitting around 4.5 implied runs and there should be some offensive interest in this game. Though LHBs have been a bit better against Mike Fiers this season (.337 wOBA vs .308), his splits seem to have a lot of variance year to year or even month to month. Since last season, batters from either side are within two points of a .340 wOBA and 40 GB%, which is supported by little separation with his xwOBA for either side. That bodes fine for the entire top half of the Cincinnati order: Jose Peraza (95 wRC+, .096 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) as an affordable leadoff bat and then Scooter Gennett (128 wRC+, .194 ISO), Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+, .234 ISO). If players don’t mind dropping down a bit lower on an abbreviated slate, Preston Tucker (110 wRC+, .194 ISO), Curt Casali (126 wRC+, .190 ISO) and Mason Williams (144 wRC+ last seven days) are all very inexpensive as well. On the other side, while Sal Romano has allowed LHBs a .359 wOBA, 40 Hard% and 42.6 GB% since last season, the Tigers don’t have a single LHB above both a 100 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Niko Goodrum (89 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Jeimer Candelario (100 wRC+, .176 ISO) can be considered, but the latter has a -13 wRC+ and 35.3 K% in 17 PAs over the last week.
Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza, Scooter Gennett, Mason Williams, Curt Casali, Preston Tucker, Mike Fiers, Sal Romano, Niko Goodrum, Jeimer Candelario
A Spot To Spend
The Brewers Chase Anderson has a long history of reverse splits power, and this season is allowing 37% hard hits and 44% fly balls to righties with below average 18.2% strikeouts. He keeps the ball around the zone and Machado is likely to see pitches to hit to take advantage of his .262 ISO and .414 wOBA against righties. His lineup spot surrounded by the likes of Joc Pederson and Max Muncy adds to his upside. I slightly prefer him on DK with the shortstop eligibity, but he is a strong play on all sites in all formats tonight.
Lefties Against These Splits
The Pirates Nick Kingham has been a very splitsy guy this season with a strong 27.6% K rate to righties falling all the way to 14.5% against lefties, which along with 41% fly balls has led to a .379 wOBA and .304 ISO allowed to left-handed bats. Rizzo has taken to the leadoff spot, with his on base skills, and a recent power surge with three homers in the last five games. He has more walks than strikeouts and a high line drive rate which gives him all kinds of on base and run scoring upside at the top of this strong Cubs lineup.
Plucking Out a Sneaky Stack
There aren’t going to be many “sneaky” options on such a short slate, but the Cardinals might qualify as an under the radar GPP stack. Kyle Freeland has solid surface numbers, but they are a bit of a mirage thanks to a .270 BABIP allowed. He’s largely been lucky for much of the season, as his SIERA and xFIP are more than a run higher than his ERA, and he carries a below average strikeout rate. Jedd Gyorko specializes against lefties, so he is a great value part of any stack, while DeJong and Molina are next in line for me. Give the Cardinals a look as a strong GPP team on this slate.
Other tagged players: Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina
Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde?
It has been a strange season for Dylan Covey. He was fantastic in May and early June despite underwhelming metrics, and the world has largely come crashing down since then. He has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts, but the one outlier was an 8 1/3 inning shutout performance against the Mariners. Go figure. His only saving grace is his ability to get ground balls, but he has an 11% walk rate against lefties and is allowing hard contact at a 40% clip. I’ll start with the lefty power here, which means Lucas Duda is a top selection… and not much else now that Mike Moustakas is gone. You can throw Alex Gordon in there as a risk/reward value play, especially if he keeps hitting 2nd, and the RH power is also viable as part of a GPP stack. We know Covey can implode at any time.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield At least three runs in 14 of 19 starts
The Yankees have the highest run line of any slate this afternoon at 5.62 against Alex Cobb, who has allowed fewer than three runs (earned or not) in just five of 19 starts this year. He has no platoon split, with batters from either side of the plate within a point of a .330 wOBA against him since last year. Batters also have a hard hit rate within two points of 35% either way as well, though the ground ball rate for RHBs is more than 10 points higher (53.2%). Each of the first seven bats in the order for the Yankees is above a 100 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Remove the leadoff man, Brett Gardner (104 wRC+, .137 ISO), and the next six are all above a 105 wRC+ and .180 ISO. The absence of Judge tightens the range a bit and doesn’t present any real standouts here, but the top half of the order is where players obviously would want the most exposure if possible: Giancarlo Stanton (117 wRC+, .248 ISO), Didi Gregorius (117 wRC+, .234 ISO) and Aaron Hicks (111 wRC+, .199 ISO), along with Gardner.
Other tagged players: Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Alex Cobb Angels in the Outfield
The Rays will start their recent acquisition in Tyler Glasnow this evening, and that could certainly spell some trouble. He pitched to a 14.4% walk rate a year ago as a starter and has a 14.0% walk rate this year out of the bullpen. That’s just not good, and it can lead to trouble in a hurry despite his ability to limit hard contact. Also, it’s unlikely that he pitches very deep into this game. The Angels need wins and should be fully motivated to bounce back after last night’s ugly loss, and I like their power-hitting outfielders tonight. Since we don’t have to pay for pitching, we can afford to pay up for these patient hitters, all of whom have walk rates over 10% this year. There’s plenty of GPP upside here.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Justin Upton Turning a Corner?
If we had a full slate with a ton of options, I wouldn’t really consider Weaver tonight. However, that’s not the case, and we have to lower our standards on this slate. Three of Weaver’s last four outings have been very strong, and he seems to be back on track mechanically, as the control had previously been a big issue. He didn’t walk a single batter in his last start, and the matchup against the Rockies away from Coors isn’t nearly as imposing. It’s risky with the way his full season profile looks, but Weaver makes a lot of sense on a short slate with limited pitching options. The recent outings have been encouraging.
Yep, This Is What We Have For Arms
It’s an extremely ugly night for pitching on this Wednesday. That’s about all there is to say about it. Every single pitcher has question marks, but Anibal Sanchez draws the best matchup against a weak Marlins team that really doesn’t have much pop to fear outside of maybe Bour and Anderson. Sanchez has also shown a bit of new life in 2018 with a 3.00 ERA and above average strikeouts. When you combine that with the matchup, he seems to be the best option on this ugly slate of hurlers.
Last three starts: 20 K-BB%, 51.3 GB% and -2.6 Hard-Soft%
Carlos Carrasco (27.1 K%, 3.32 SIERA, .304 xwOBA) is the top pitcher among the three 1pm ET games and it’s not even close, by price tag or anything else. He’s struck out 33% of batters with a 16.6 SwStr% over the last month, pitching into the seventh inning each of his last two times out. His 89.3 mph aEV is near the bottom of the board, which is really the only concern against a Minnesota offense that still has a bit of LH pop. There’s really very little reason to not strongly consider him as your daily fantasy pitcher this afternoon aside from ownership issues in GPPs. The only other pitcher of serious interest among those three games is Sonny Gray, who’s allowed a total of three runs (two earned) over his last three starts against the Royals, Mets and Orioles. Not exactly a murderer’s row, but he’s also facing one of those teams again today. He has a 20.0 K-BB%, 51.3 GB% and -2.6 Hard-Soft% over this three start span and faces an offense with an 87 wRC+ and 17 K-BB% vs RHP, numbers built mostly with Machado and Schoop in the lineup. This trumps their improbable team 165 wRC+ over the last week and the dangerous park.
Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco Michael Brantley scratched Wednesday; Rajai Davis replaces
Brantley has been scratched from the Cleveland Indians original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Rajai Davis, who will play center field and slot directly into Brantley’s vacated second spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Indians lineup will stay intact as they face off against left-hander Adalberto Mejia on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Jordan Bastian via Twitter
Roasted bullpen and pitcher returning from the DL who can be run on liberally
The FanDuel main afternoon slate kicks off at noon and includes the first four games, while the DraftKings main afternoon slate skips the noon start between the Mets and the Nationals. Both teams are hovering around the middle of the board, one-tenth of a point removed from 4.25 implied runs. Tommy Milone was decent enough in his first start against the Marlins (5 IP – 3 ER – 0 BB – 6 K), but in 53.1 major league innings since last season, RHBs have torched him for a .440 wOBA (.394 xwOBA) on just a 36.4 GB%. In addition, Kevin reports a healthy wind blowing out 10-15 mph (direction not noted) on a humid afternoon. This part is easy enough. Amed Rosario (84 wRC+, .163 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Austin Jackson (119 wRC+, .101 ISO), Wilmer Flores (92 wRC+, .165 ISO) and Jose Bautista (114 wRC+, .211 ISO) comprise four of the first five spots in the lineup and are all below $3K. Jackson costs the minimum. The other side of this is a bit trickier. The Mets threw nearly every pitcher they have plus Jose Reyes at the Nationals last night. The bullpen is exhausted. Noah Syndergaard is returning from a virus and my not be built up to go deep into this game, so he’s probably not an ideal option at $9.5K. One guy who did not appear and is likely to throw a few innings under most scenarios is Seth Lugo. He’s thrown just 2.2 innings over the last week. Considering Syndergaard may not be in top form, the Nationals have wisely utilized their speed at the top of the order today with Adam Eaton (142 wRC+, .119 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Trea Turner (104 wRC+, .170 ISO). If nothing else, even at his best, Syndergaard can be run on liberally.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Noah Syndergaard, Tommy Milone, Amed Rosario, Wilmer Flores, Austin Jackson, Jose Bautista Great Matchup On Paper
The White Sox are always boom or bust, but I really like this spot for them tonight. Palka particularly stands out to me on FanDuel and is one of my favorite value options over there. Junis has a .356 wOBA with a .203 ISO and a 40.2% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. His strikeout rate is also at 18% against lefties. Meanwhile, Palka has a .275 ISO with a .496 CXwOBA and a 93.1 average exit velocity against righties this season. He has been a nice surprise for the White Sox, and if I’m going to be stacking them, I’m using the value.
Value Power Upside
Nick Tropeano has struggled with lefties, and I don’t expect the Rays to be too popular in this matchup. Tropeano has a .379 wOBA with a .231 ISO and a 43.2% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. In 2016, Tropeano had a .381 wOBA with a .223 ISO and a 37.2% hard-hit rate against lefties. Choi has shown good power numbers, but always has the massive strikeout downside. Tropeano’s low strikeout rate makes Choi interesting tonight, as he has a .224 ISO with a .485 CXwOBA against righties this season.
Elite Hard To Soft Contact Ratio
With limited pitching options on the main slate, I’m leaning on Anibal Sanchez as my top option. Sanchez has pitched at least six innings in five straight games, and he’s pitched really well in three of his last four starts. Realmuto and Bour worry me in this lineup, but the rest of this lineup doesn’t scare me much. They have a combined .138 ISO with a .314 wOBA and a 23.1% strikeout rate. Sanchez has a .289 wOBA with a 21.7% strikeout rate and a 5.0% walk rate against right-handed hitters this season, and he also has a very impressive 6.1% hard to soft contact ratio.