DFS Alerts

Heat, humidity and a few spots with rain potential

Kevin’s updated forecast has been posted and aside from the heat and humidity in a lot of places tonight there are a few spots with some rain potential. The full report is available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get the latest updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.

Results against poor teams are much better than underlying numbers for Austin Bibens-Dirkx

It’s not Coors, but it’s the most positive run environment otherwise in Texas, where the Astros are essentially tied with the Rockies for tonight’s top run line (6.04). Austin Bibens-Dirkx has allowed just one HR in four starts against mostly inferior offenses (San Diego, Kansas City twice), keeping his ERA and FIP about a run below his xFIP and SIERA. He has a 90.2 mph aEV despite just 2.8% Barrels/BBE. The latter number would be more likely to regress and this could be the spot. RHBs have a .344 wOBA against him since last season (23 points higher than LHBs) with a 41.2 Hard%. By xwOBA, he’s at .358 against all batters. Each of the first eight batters in the lineup are above a 105 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year and only Josh Reddick (115 wRC+, .130 ISO) is below a .170 ISO against them over that span. Jose Altuve (165 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Alex Bregman (138 wRC+, .211 ISO) are to infield bats tonight. This is really a lineup that works better as a stack if affordable.

Chris Stratton should see some wOBA regression with one of the worst park shifts possible

Chris Stratton throws a four-seam fastball 57.1% of the time and has just a .288 wOBA on it despite a 90 mph aEV (.351 xwOBA) most likely due to the friendly environment in San Francisco. He throws a curveball with a .374 wOBA 15.4% of the time. Curveballs generally don’t fare well in Colorado. He could be in trouble here. Vegas seems to agree (6.09 runs tops the board). While RHBs have just a .310 wOBA against him since last season, xwOBA jumps that 41 points with a 40.8 Hard%. LHBs have a .342 wOBA and .365 xwOBA against him since 2017. Anyone with a bat and some competence against RHP is dangerous here. That’s not everyone. The seven and eight hitters are both below 65 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. However, everyone else has at least an 85 wRC+ against RHP over that same span. Charlie Blackmon (135 wRC+, .276 ISO) is your top bat despite a -46 wRC+ over the last week and he’s managed this with just two strikeouts in 27 PAs (.125 BABIP, 20.8 Hard%). This may be just the right spot for him to break out. Carlos Gonzalez (123 wRC+, .206 ISO) is probably the top value here in the cleanup spot for $500 or more less than any batter in front of him.

Cleveland bats project well despite recent improvement from Danny Duffy

The Tribe is one of six offenses to reach five implied runs tonight (5.19) despite Danny Duffy pitching better recently. He has gone at least six innings in six of his last seven starts and has at least seven Ks in three of his last four. That’s all great news, but he still has an 11.8 BB% over that seven start span and still struggles against RHBs (.342 wOBA, 35.4 Hard%, 35 GB% since last season). .While Duffy’s fly ball lean would generally be an asset in a run positive, but power negative park, Kevin’s forecast calls for hot and humid in Kansas City tonight and he has already allowed seven HRs in six home starts this year. Jose Ramirez (156 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Francisco Lindor (168 wRC+, .239 ISO) are top bats at the position tonight. Edwin Encarnacion (99 wRC+, .207 ISO) is formidable as well. Brandon Guyer (121 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Yan Gomes (157 wRC+, .278 ISO) are value bats. Gomes has five extra-base hits (two HRs) in 23 career PAs against Duffy.

Perfect Spot for this Pitcher

Eflin is one of my favorite targets of the slate. He has quietly pitched well all season, posting a 3.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a hard contact rate of 27% in ten starts. The main reason to like him is his matchup against the right-handed heavy Orioles. On the season, Eflin has held righties to a .272 xwOBA with a 23% k-rate. Meanwhile, the projected lineup for Baltimore has a .295 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching this season. Everything is aligning for Eflin, so fire him up in cash games and tournaments.

Platoon Advantage at Home

Greinke is one of the only pitchers in baseball that has a 43%+ hard contact rate and a SIERA under 3.50. That’s largely thanks to great control and an above-average strikeout rate (26%). He doesn’t have amazing splits against right-handed hitters, but he’ll have the platoon advantage tonight against the Cardinals, who only have three or four lefties on their active roster. Greinke is a sizable favorite, he’s pitching at home, and he’s not on a pitch count like the other ace (Clayton Kershaw) in this slate.

Prime Spot for a Stack

The Reds are my favorite stack of the evening and yes, that includes the game in Coors Field. Cincinnati is playing at home in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark and they are facing a low strikeout pitcher with bad control (13% walk rate). On the season, Lucas Giolito has allowed a .425 xwOBA to lefties and a .340 xwOBA to righties. After a disappointing night against James Shields, this Reds’ offense is ready to break out for ten or more runs. Joey Votto has mashed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .464 xwOBA this season.

Elite Power vs. Southpaws

The Yankees draw a mediocre matchup against Sean Newcomb, who has some serious reverse splits. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .261 xwOBA and a 30% hard contact rate, while allowing a .379 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to lefties. This could pose a slight problem for a right-handed heavy Yankees’ offense. With that said, this team absolutely mashes southpaws and they are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Giancarlo Stanton has been one of the best hitters against lefties for many years. In 2018, he boasts a .502 xwOBA with a 66% hard contact rate.

The Rangers have a moderate 4.45 implied run line against Dallas Keuchel, but there may be some value in a few cheap right-handed bats in a one of the two extremely positive run environments in play tonight. Keuchel has allowed four runs or more in five of his last eight starts and six or more in three of his last five. He has just a 15 K% over the last month. Kuechel has still been very good against RHBs since last season (.299 wOBA, .310 xwOBA, 59.8 GB%), but Adrian Beltre (183 wRC+, .206 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is almost certainly too cheap in this spot, as may be Elvis Andrus (115 wRC+, .172 ISO) and Robinson Chirinos (170 wRC+, .271 ISO). Ryan Rua (144 wRC+, .236 ISO) costs less than $3K in the sixth spot. There aren’t too many pitchers to pay up for tonight, but Texas bats could help pave a way to a higher priced stack alongside them.

Yankees still one of the top projected offenses despite facing a quality pitcher tonight

The Yankees reach five implied runs, but don’t exceed it. A rare occurrence at home, but they are facing a quality pitcher in Sean Newcomb tonight. Newcomb does have a strikeout rate a bit above average (23.8%), but his strength has been contact management (86.6 mph aEV, 3.2% Barrels/BBE) and he’s actually been better against RHBs (.300 wOBA, .294 xwOBA, 28.2 Hard% since last season). While he’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup, the problem for him is that a few of them really punish LHP and the ball doesn’t need to be hit exceptionally hard to get it out of Yankee Stadium. Aaron Judge (113 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Giancarlo Stanton (225 wRC+, .463 ISO) and Aaron Hicks (140 wRC+, .254 ISO) comprise the two through four spots in the order and could offer a rare opportunity for low ownership for Yankee bats at home considering four teams above 5.5 implied runs tonight.

Home run prone pitcher with no split in a power friendly park

Alex Cobb occasionally throws in a nice start, but has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four despite a ground ball rate above 52% in each of his last three start. It just seems everything in the air is leaving the yard recently (19.2 HR/FB last four starts) in some tough parks and Philly is just as power friendly. Right-handed batters have hit three of the five HRs and eight of his 14 for the season. Cobb essentially has no split since last season. Batters from both sides have exactly a .332 wOBA, though the ground ball rate against RHBs is nearly 10 points higher (53.1% to 42.6%). Still, Rhys Hoskins (144 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top power option with Carlos Santana (129 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Odubel Herrera (129 wRC+, .210 IOS) able to generate some pop behind him as well. Cesar Hernandez (118 wRC+, .130 ISO) stands a good chance of scoring should he reach and has some stolen base potential, should the Phillies need to run tonight.

Despite key absence, Reds should have plenty of left-handed firepower in one of tonight's top spots

The Reds have the second highest implied run line outside of Coors tonight (5.56) and are so excited to face Lucas Giolito (0.0 K-BB%, 6.01 SIERA, .385 xwOBA, nine HRs last seven starts) that they failed to correctly fill out the lineup card. Scott Schebler is missing against a pitcher who has surrendered a .360 wOBA (.391 xwOBA) to LHBs since last season. His 38.8 GB% is not likely to play well in a warm and humid band box either. Without Schebler, players will have to make do with Joey Votto (169 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Scooter Gennett (131 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Jesse Winker (140 wRC+, .173 ISO) with Eugenio Suarez (127 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Jose Peraza (82 wRC+, .083 ISO) viable from the right side as well (RHBs .302 wOBA, .330 xwOBA vs Giolito since 2017). Peraza doesn’t do much, but he’ll have ample opportunity to reach base and is a tremendous stolen base threat tonight (Stolen Base Ratings available to premium subscribers).

Daily Bullpen Alert: A few already favorable spots confirmed by weak pens backing questionable starters

The Mets (5.80), Angels (5.50) and Royals (5.26) are the worst bullpens on the board by FIP over the last month. No other active team tonight is above 4.70. The Royals (3.6%) and Rockies (8.4%) are the only two teams above a 4.5 FIP with a K-BB less than 10% over the last 30 days as well. It’s easy to attack the Royals. Danny Duffy has been pitching better and deeper into games recently, but has a tough matchup with the Indians. A guy like Edwin Encarnacion may stand out as he can hit weak right-handed relief pitching well and RHBs have great power numbers against Duffy. The Rockies are at Coors with little extra bullpen analysis needed. They paid a lot and have received little. Andrew Heaney has gone at least seven innings in three of his last five starts, but less than four in the other two. The Angels might have an active bullpen tonight in Seattle? The Mariners were one of the “less than four” recently. Zack Wheeler has been pitching six innings regularly for the Mets, potentially limiting bullpen usage tonight, but they’ve been sure to blow most of his games when they do finally appear. Trevor Richards is the only pitcher on the slate averaging less than five innings per start (though that could change against a struggling Rays’ offense). The Miami bullpen has a 3.48 FIP over the last month, a likely function of their ability to keep the ball inside a big park with just a 10.8 K-BB% over that span. There’s little attraction towards the Tampa Bay offense in any case. Lucas Giolito is the other guy averaging less than 5.1 innings per start tonight. While the damage will likely be done while he’s in there, the Chicago pen has been competent over the last month (3.50 FIP, 12.5 K-BB%).

Lots of value and some upside among today's mid-range pitchers

Although there is a lack of top end arms on the board, there’s no shortage of value arms on the mound with a couple of guys who could end up with high end performances. Shane Bieber brings a 20+ K-BB% to a matchup with the Royals. The Royals have just a 19.2 K% vs RHP, but also have a 78 wRC+, 7.0 BB%, and 8.0 HR/FB vs RHP with their own 20 K-BB% (37 wRC+) over the last week. Bieber is up to $9.6K on DraftKings, but his performance still probably warrants a higher price, while being $1.6K less on FanDuel. Ryan Yarbrough is finally starting and doing so in Miami (split low 75 wRC+ and 7.6 HR/FB vs LHP) for around $6K. He’s gone six innings in several outings and has allowed just one run over his last 10.2 innings against the Yankees and Astros. He has just a 16.4 K% over the last month, but with a 10.8 SwStr%. His 26.8% 95+ mph EV is lowest on the board. Domingo German doesn’t just have the highest SwStr% on the board, but his 15.4% is best by several points. The only guys better than that in the majors (Scherzer, Sale, deGrom) are all serious Cy Young contenders. He’s one of just two pitchers on the board (Greinke is the other) with elite Z-Contact (79.7%) and Z-O-Swing (29.5%) rates. This means he’s getting batters to swing at his pitches and he’s making them miss even when they aren’t. His 5.32 ERA is not even a result of being hit that hard. While an 18.0 HR/FB is an undesirable feature of Yankee Stadium, he also has just a 55.8 LOB% since being moved into the rotation. The Braves don’t strike out a lot (20% vs RHP), but have just a 95 wRC+ and 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP too. German costs just $6.5K on FanDuel. Trevor Richards has just a 10 K-BB% in 10 major league starts due to a 10.5 BB%. However, he had a 21.9 K-BB% at AAA this year and a 18.8 K-BB% at AA and 24.4 K-BB% at A+ last year. He might be at least competent for $5.9K on FanDuel against a slumping Rays’ offense (56 wRC+, 25.7 K%, 3.1 HR/FB last seven days) in a great park. Clayton Richards will not give you much upside, but he leads all qualified starters in ground ball rate (57.7%) and last failed to complete six innings in his first start of May. He’s failed to complete seven innings in only three starts since then. He’s more likely than not to complete seven innings in Oakland for $6.8K on DraftKings. Zack Wheeler shut out the Pirates for seven innings with seven Ks last time out. He has now struck out 22 of his last 76 batters and has gone at least six innings in nine of his last 11 starts, missing once by just a single out. His 85.5 mph aEV is lowest on the board tonight.The Blue Jays have a 0.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.

Is there an Ace on the board on Tuesday?

There are just two pitchers who exceed a $10K price tag on both sites tonight. If we assume Clayton Kershaw is going to be unusable, as he’s been essentially been rehabbing against major league teams with 55 and 68 pitches thrown in his two starts, then Zack Greinke is your top arm and the only thing even resembling an Ace with more than a month in the majors. His 25.7 K% is only fourth on the board, but highest among qualified pitchers today. He’s one of just two pitchers on the board (German is the other) with both elite Z-Contact (82.2%) and Z-O-Swing (28.1%) rates. He does allow too much hard contact (9.3% Barrels/BBE is second worst among tonight’s pitchers), but certainly does enough to compensate most times. He’s thrown 13 shutout innings with 13 Ks over his last two starts in great spots in Miami and Pittsburgh, but this is a pretty nice spot too (Cardinals 26 K% on the road, 14.9 K-BB% vs RHP). Jack Flaherty reached $10.1K on DraftKings too and has the highest strikeout rate on the board (29.1%). He’s coming off of one of his worst starts of the season against the Indians and will occasionally throw a stinker. In fact, he’s kind of a hit or miss pitcher (no more than six Ks in seven of his last 10 starts, but 13 twice). He’s much more appealing for just $8K on FanDuel in what may be a nice spot in Arizona (81 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP), especially if the roof is closed.