DFS Alerts
A Good Play, Not A Must Play
I want to be clear that this is not a 100% lock button play tonight on Greinke. There is a large group of mid-tier pitchers just ever so slightly behind him, but if you’re spending up, I slightly prefer Greinke over the still-limited Clayton Kershaw. Greinke has been outstanding at home this season with a 2.40 ERA on 26% strikeouts and 5.2% walks. He is still due some regression with all the hard hits he’s allowing and with a good Cardinals team coming in, this is why he is not an all-in type pitcher tonight. He’s very good, he doesn’t beat himself and he’s fairly priced. If you have the salary to spare, fire him up, but if you don’t, it’s OK to drop down to the next tier.
Kyle Freeland has actually been better vs RHBs at home, but Giants still top offense on the board
The Giants top the board with 5.59 implied runs at Coors and Kyle Freeland has some really interesting splits. For his career, RHBs have a .331 wOBA with 23 of his 28 HRs allowed, though 12 of those have come on the road. At home, RHBs have a .329 wOBA with 10 HRs against him with a 59 GB% and -0.3 Hard-Soft%. That wOBA essentially comes from a K-BB under 5% against RHBs at home or away. He has a career 26.5 K-BB% at home against LHBs, but with just a 39.3 GB% and 36.9 Hard%. What should players do? Play good hitters at the top of the lineup along with Gorkys Hernandez (85 wRC+, .123 ISO vs last calendar year) in the leadoff spot. This includes Buster Posey (136 wRC+, .176 ISO) and Andrew McCutchen (141 wRC+, .242 ISO). The upside is just too high. There should be some runs scored. Brandon Belt (118 wRC+, .383 xwOBA, .138 ISO) might be the sneaky bat here though. Players could shy away form his massive cost in on DraftKings in a same-handed matchup. However, it’s a massive upgrade for one of the most under-rated hitters in the game ($3.6K on FD) and while Freeland dominates lefties from a peripherals standpoint, most of the contact he does allow is in the air.
One potential concern and a lot of humidty
There’s one potential concern and a lot of heat and humidity in Kevin’s updated forecast for Monday. The full report is available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers get updates from Kevin until lock starting at 6:30 ET on Crunch Time.
Three HRs in three of his last four starts and five times this year, facing one of the toughest top half lineups in baseball
Jakob Junis is worst on the board with 10.3% Barrels/BBE. Kansas City is a positive run environment, but power suppressing park. However, Junis has allowed exactly three HRs in three of his last four starts. Only one was at home, but one of those three was in a similarly power suppressing park in Oakland and he’s also allowed at least three HRs in two other home starts this season. In addition, Kevin’s forecast calls for hot and humid in KC. Junis has virtually no split in his career. Batters from either side of the plate are within two points of a .330 wOBA against him with a hard hit rate above 37%. RHBs have 23 of the 37 HRs he’s allowed in his career though. Each of the first six batters in the Cleveland lineup are above a 115 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Each are above a .150 ISO as well with each of the first four above a .200 ISO. Francisco Lindor (135 wRC+, .269 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (164 wRC+, .313 ISO) are great middle infield pivots from any of the four teams above 5.4 runs. The Indians are fifth highst at 4.97 implied runs tonight.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jakob Junis Rockies have just the fourth highest implied run line on the board in rematch with Bumgarner
Coors is a really interesting spot for the home team tonight. They are still above five implied runs (5.41), but just fourth highest on the board against Madison Bumgarner, who shut them down with eight strikeouts through seven shutout innings in his last start, following a similar accomplishment against the Padres previously. However, the park shift is massive here and it’s not like he’s been doing it against top offenses. Projected ownership (available to premium subscribers) would really seem to help out the decision making process here. Bumgarner still dominates lefties (.226 wOBA, 25.3 Hard% since last season), but if the right-handed bats (.302 wOBA, .310 xwOBA, 38.6 Hard% vs Bumgarner since 2017) are going to be under what you would expect against a lefty at home because players are paying up for Scherzer, there’s certainly merit to find a way to squeeze in Nolan Arenado (238 wRC+, .465 xwOBA, .454 ISO, 48.2 Hard% vs LHP last calendar year). These Rockies have a lot of history against Bumgarner. Arenado has two HRs and two doubles in 42 PAs against him with a .394 xwOBA in the Statcast era (since 2015). That’s exceeded only by DJ LeMahieu (129 wRC+, .219 ISO), who hasn’t homered in 43 PAs against him, but has a .482 xwOBA against Bumgarner since 2015.
Other tagged players: Madison Bumgarner, DJ LeMahieu Left-handed bats in Washington have value against Porcello, who's fallen back into old habits
Rick Porcello has declined in swinging strike rate (7.6%) and xwOBA (.331) with ERA estimators all above four over the last month. While LHBs have just a .301 wOBA against him this season, that’s up to .346 with a 46 Hard% and six HRs since April 29th, which matches his numbers against them since last 2017 (.342 wOBA, .347 xwOBA, 40.8 Hard%). This is a spot where left-handed Washington bats could have some success. There’s disappointment in finding Bryce Harper (146 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) dropped down to fifth with Daniel Murphy (115 wRC+, .178 ISO), who’s done nothing this year, dropping to sixth. Adam Eaton (138 wRC+, .387 xwOBA, .133 ISO) and Juan Soto (145 wRC+, .213 ISO) could be the best values here. Trea Turner (114 wRC+, .176 ISO) is one of the top Stolen Base threats (available to premium subscribers) on the board, while Porcello has been average against RHP (.315 wOBA) since last year.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Rick Porcello Anibal Sanchez's improvement against RHBs (.263 wOBA) will be put to the test in Yankee Stadium
As is generally the case when at home, the Yankees have one of the top run lines on the board (5.46) with a lineup full of guys above a 105 wRC+ against RHP (all eight with more than 30 PAs against them over the last calendar year). Seven also exceed a .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year and the one who doesn’t is leading off (Brett Gardner 110 wRC+, .151 ISO). This mandates at least some exposure to Yankee bats for multiple lineup players. Aaron Judge (170 wRC+, .338 ISO) and Aaron Hicks (106 wRC+, .238 ISO) both exceed a 230 wRC+ over the last week with three and four HRs respectively. However, Anibal Sanchez is now throwing a cutter 17% of the time that has helped cut down on his problems with RHBs, which has cut down his wOBA against them to .263 (two HRs). It hasn’t been below .360 since 2014. Players certainly shouldn’t expect him to come in here and shut down the Yankees, but it might be something to think about and a potential reason to fade some of these bats should ownership look too high.
Other tagged players: Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Anibal Sanchez James Shields has been going deep into most starts, but a SIERA above five could spell trouble in power boosting park
James Shields has gone at least six innings in 14 of 17 starts, probably more because the White Sox don’t care than due to performance that merits it. His ERA and FIP are still above four with other estimators above five. His .345 xwOBA is second worst on the board. The Reds have a 5.52 implied run line that’s less than one-tenth of a run off the top of the board and Shields’ workload may benefit them as most of the lineup should get to see him three times. While RHBs have a .311 wOBA against him since last year, xwOBA raises that to .344, meeting his marks against LHBs (.337 wOBA, .359 xwOBA) over that span. His .281 wOBA against LHBs this year is based on a .212 BABIP. The Reds will be looking to put the ball over the wall in Cincinnati. Shields has allowed 23 HRs to LHBs since the start of last season. With Tucker Barnhart (87 wRC+, .125 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in the two spot, each of the first six bats for the Reds is a viable daily fantasy option, the remaining five all have at least a 99 wRC+ and .173 ISO against RHP over that same span. Remove Jesse Winker (140 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Joey Votto (169 wRC+, .196 ISO) has the next lowest ISO vs RHP over the last year. Leadoff man Scott Schebler (99 wRC+, .235 ISO) is one of the more interesting bats in the lineup, priced a bit less than the a few of the ones behind him.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, James Shields Daily Bullpen Alert: Battle of pens going in different directions at Coors
There are four bullpens in baseball above a five FIP over the last month, just one in play tonight. The Royals (5.26 FIP) have a nearly negative K-BB (3.9%) over the last 30 days and though Jakob Junis averages over six innings per start, Cleveland has a 4.97 implied run line in Kansas City and could get knocked out early here. The Rockies have a 4.90 FIP and 7.4 K-BB% over the last month and return home to face the Giants tonight. Two of the three bullpens below a 3.00 FIP over the last month may be active tonight. Jonathan Loaisiga has topped out at 5.1 innings and only surpassed 90 innings once, but things will not be looking up for the Braves once he exits the game (2.32 FIP, 25.4 K-BB% for the Yankee pen last 30 days). The Giants (2.75 FIP, 15.8 K-BB%) take one of the best pens in baseball recently to Coors. The FIP may be a bit misleading in a power suppressing park and that will be challenged here, but the K-BB% is still above average.
A high floor option and several potential value arms below $9K tonight
If dropping down to the middle of the board, Alex Wood may be one of the more interesting options for less than $9K tonight. While still not throwing 100 pitches per starts, he’s been above 90 in three of his last four League average strikeout (22.3%) and ground ball rates (45.6%)…well, league average almost everything (87.7 mph aEV, .305 xwOBA) makes him essentially a league average pitcher, who gets a park boost from one of the most negative run environments in baseball against an offense that’s average at best, which makes it a decent spot with a decent floor most likely. Nathan Eovaldi costs just $6.3K on FanDuel. He’s run through a tough schedule since returning (Nationals twice, Astros, Yankees, Mariners), but gets a break in Miami tonight (84 wRC+, 9.0 HR/FB at home, 87 wRC+, 16.6 K-BB% vs RHP) . He’s completed six innings in four of his starts and three straight. Luis Castillo has allowed at least three earned runs in six straight starts in which he’s completed six innings just once. He’s allowed 18 HRs in 17 starts, but still has a 13.7 SwStr% and is facing the White Sox (18.5 K-BB% vs RHP and 19.1 K-BB% over the last seven days) for $5.7K on DraftKings. Carlos Martinez has walked a total of three over his last two starts and struck out eight lat time out. His strikeout rate is not much above average and there’s always a chance he could walk the park, but costs $8.1K or less in Arizona (81 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP with just a 90 wRC+ and 12.5 HR/FB in humidor land this year). Wei-Yin Chen costs just $4.6K on DK in an extremely negative run environment and decent contact management (4.8% Barrels/BBE) against the Rays. A really sneak SP2 could be Anibal Sanchez (23.2 K%, .300 xwOBA, 84.5 mph aEV), who’s cutter is being thrown 17% of the time towards solid results (.229 xwOBA) and seems to have abolished the terrible reverse split that’s plagued him for several seasons now (.263 wOBA, two HRs this year). Ownership may be non-existent in an incredibly high risk spot against the Yankees.
Other tagged players: Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Castillo, Carlos Martinez, Wei-Yin Chen, Anibal Sanchez Is Max Scherzer still the best high priced option against the Red Sox?
Max Scherzer has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. The quick and easy all-encompassing stat is a 4.4 fWAR. His 17.2 SwStr% is higher than three pitchers’ strikeout rates today. His 37.1 K% is more than 10 points above the next qualified arm tonight (Kluber 26.9%). His .258 xwOBA leads the board by 20 points and his 2.39 SIERA is more than a half run better than anyone. He’s also facing the Red Sox (116 wRC+, 18.9 K% vs RHP, 135 wRC+, 17.8 K%, 19.3 HR/FB last seven days), but he does get them in Washington (99 wRC+ on the road), where they lose the DH today. J.D. Martinez is out of the lineup today, which helps him out a bit too. Corey Kluber had his worst start of the season last time out in St Louis (1.2 IP – 6 ER – 2 HR – 1 BB – 2 K) and has now struggled in two of his last three. There was a pre-start rain delay in St Louis though and his velocity was fine. We’d like to believe in the track record in a great run prevention spot in Kansas City (sub 85 wRC+, 8 BB% and 8 HR/FB at home, vs RHP and over the last week), but one that may hinder his strikeout upside (19.2% vs RHP). With his cost not much lower than Scherzer, while both in spots without the highest strikeout upside, the lean is probably towards the more dominant arm this season. Also reaching $10K is Madison Bumgarner (15 IP – 0 R – 16 K last two starts, but at home against Padres and Rockies), who’s at Coors (and $3.2K less on FanDuel). Robbie Ray and Rick Porcello are both above $9K. Ray looked good in Miami in his first start back from the DL (6 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 2 BB – 6 K). His 35.2 K% is second best on the board and he’s facing a team with some strikeouts in them (Cardinals 23.2 K% vs LHP, 26.1 K% on the road), but the strengths of that offense (9.8 BB%, 17.2 HR/FB vs LHP) also match up with his own inadequacies in the walk and hard contact departments. Rick Porcello has declined in swinging strike rate (7.6%) and xwOBA (.331) with ERA estimators all above four over the last month. It would seem difficult to justify his cost in Washington. So the answer to the question posed in the headline would probably still be yes, though Ray has upside and Kluber’s in a better run prevention spot, Max Scherzer is still your top pitcher tonight.
Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Robbie Ray, Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello Massive Upside in New York
The Yankees have plenty of upside tonight against Anibal Sanchez. While his ground ball rate is up this season, he has historically been an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Sanchez has been tough on right-handed hitters this year, but has historically had reverse splits. The way I see it, batters from both sides of the plate are viable tonight. Aaron Judge is my favorite hitter of the slate, as he currently boasts a .412 xwOBA with a 50% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Sneaky Upside for this Offense
The Brewers are the offense to load up on in this game. Kyle Gibson allows a lot of hard contact and has given up a .325+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The Brewers are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they have sneaky power (ninth in the majors in home runs), and they are aggressive on the base paths (fourth in the majors in stolen bases). Brad Miller is a great fit for this lineup and he should be batting leadoff. On the season, he owns a .339 xwOBA and a 45% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Cheap SP2 for Cash Games
There isn’t anything that jumps off the page when looking at Suter’s stats, but he continues to produce at a high level. He has scored at least 16 fantasy points (DK scoring) in nine of his last ten starts, which shows how high of a floor he has. His great control allows him to pitch deep into games even though he rarely cracks the 100-pitch mark. His matchup against the Twins is enticing, as they have struggled to hit left-handed pitching all season. In fact, their projected lineup has a .301 xwOBA with a 25% k-rate against southpaws. Suter is cheap and is one of my favorite value plays of the slate.
Hard to Pass on this Price in this Matchup
Castillo is going to be the super chalk tonight on DraftKings. He draws the best matchup of the slate, he’s a -200 favorite, and he’s only $5,700. While his numbers are down as a whole, I like what I have seen over his last two starts — 3.56 SIERA with a 55% ground ball rate and a 5% walk rate. He still has elite velocity, he just needs to put it all together. The White Sox projected lineup has a .285 xwOBA with a 32% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Even if Castillo gives up a few runs, he should still reach value thanks to his strikeout upside in this matchup.