DFS Alerts
Human Piñata
The Phillies are another team with an implied run total north of five runs as they’ll host the Human Piñata, Alex Cobb, at Citizen’s Bank Park. When stacking an offense you want your team to be able to make contact with the ball (duh!) and the Phillies should have no problem doing that against Cobb who owns the slate’s second worst strikeout rate (14.6%) and second worst SwStr% (6.9%). If you don’t want to full stack the Phillies, I love using Rhys Hoskins as a pivot off the likely higher owned Giancarlo Stanton.
Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez
Run It Back
The Yankees disappointed in a favorable matchup last night so it only makes sense to run them back in a more difficult matchup tonight, right? In all likelihood, the Yankees will see ownership numbers in the single digits on a slate where offense is expected to be plentiful – at the time of this writing there are eight teams, including the Yankees, with implied run totals north of five runs. I know Sean Newcomb has been great this season but lest I remind you of Stanton and Judge’s obscene numbers against LHP #NSFW. Judge owns a career 131 wRC+ and .229 ISO versus southpaws and Stanton dwarfs those numbers with a career 174 wRC+ and .347 ISO. I’m not the biggest fan of a Yankees onslaught but do like the idea of pairing Judge + Stanton together with a different five player team stack.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge Chase the Long Ball
Things Austin Bibbens-Dirkx is likely not actually good at: pitching. Don’t let ABD’s 3.57 ERA over four starts fool you – he’s a below average pitcher that is going to get shelled by the hard-hitting Astros. Despite a 35.2 GB% and a 45.7 Hard%, opponents have only hit one HR off of Bibbens-Dirkx this year which translates to a 3.8% HR/FB. If those batted ball numbers continue, ABD is unlikely to be able to keep the ball in the yard at his current rate. The Astros are my favorite non-Coors stack of the slate and my favorite power stack if you’re purely chasing the long ball.
Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman Fringe Cash
Anthony DeSclafani may be a fringe cash game option provided the context of Tuesday’s main slate, but if you’re not going to look at him in cash, at least sprinkle him in a handful of GPP lineups. DeSclafani has been mostly average since his return from injury – he’s the owner of a 4.32 SIERA and 20.3% strikeout rate – but average is about all you need when facing a team that strikes out as much as the White Sox (25.1 K% vs RHP). While it’s a home game, Great American Ballpark won’t play in his favor, but the absence of a DH for the White Sox is an added bonus and added strikeout potential for DeSclafani.
A Swing and a Miss
Danny Duffy is back to generating a ton of swings and misses – he’s posted a SwStr% over 18% in two of his last four outings. That number is a marked improvement from his early season form and more in line with the strong swinging strike rates he’s posted the last two full season (11.4%, 12.9%). He has a tough matchup Tuesday night against a good hitting Cleveland offense (110 wRC+ vs LHP) but he’s priced low enough to take a shot on his strikeout upside in GPPs.
Worth The Pinch Hit Risk Today
With the limited value options tonight, I’m looking at the power upside guys that are cheap. Danny Duffy has pitched better recently, but his numbers against righties are still really concerning. He has a .359 wOBA with a .221 ISO and a 39.6% hard-hit rate against righties this season. That with a lower strikeout rate and high walk rate show signs of command issues. Guyer has a .228 ISO with a .421 CXwOBA and an 82.5% contact rate against left-handed pitching this season. He has the power upside, and at his price, I’m willing to roll the dice; just always remember he’s a pinch hit risk.
Don't Forget About This Guy
We don’t have a lot of value options tonight, and with the big bats on this slate, I like Nick Williams as a value. Alex Cobb has struggled this season, and with the Phillies priced up, I doubt they get any ownership. Cobb has a .408 wOBA with a .231 ISO and a 16.7% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season. Williams profiles well against fastballs and curveballs, which is what Cobb throws over 80% of the time to left-handed hitters. He also has a .219 ISO with a .472 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
The Place To Play
There is a lot of good offense tonight, but Coors Field would be a dangerous fade, and the Rockies left-handed bats look to have the clear advantage over Chris Stratton. Stratton has an awful 14% strikeout rate with 10.8% walks, no ground ball lean and above average 38% hard hits allowed. He has skated by with a .290 BABIP and 9.8% HR/FB rate, but this is not the place to come looking for more help in those areas. Gerardo Parra is the affordable lefty here, but he’s not just a salary play, with plenty to like in his 40% hard hits and 29% line drives along with low strikeouts against right-handed pitching.
The Place To Play
There is a lot of good offense tonight, but Coors Field would be a dangerous fade, and the Rockies left-handed bats look to have the clear advantage over Chris Stratton. Stratton has an awful 14% strikeout rate with 10.8% walks, no ground ball lean and above average 38% hard hits allowed. He has skated by with a .290 BABIP and 9.8% HR/FB rate, but this is not the place to come looking for more help in those areas. Carlos Gonzalez is not the hitter he used to be, but still carries a solid .281 average and .353 wOBA against righties while getting a boost from his lineup spot.
Top Bats Too Cheap Here
The prime plays on both sides of the Coors Field game are too cheap on FanDuel tonight. Charlie Blackmon has been slumping, but not enough to warrant this much of a salary drop for his long term skills against right-handed pitching. Chris Stratton has a terribly low 14% strikeout rate against lefties this season and has shown no ability to control batted balls. His stuff can get by in San Francisco, but this is not San Francisco. Blackmon has power and speed with good plate discipline and should be in the middle of the action for the top offense tonight.
Punt Catcher With Pop
I’m hoping Josh Phegley cracks the lineup for Oakland tonight, as he’s a nice value catcher with some home run upside. Phegley has been great against lefties this season, and since the start of 2017 he has a .173 ISO with a .362 CXwOBA. He also has a very low 12.9% soft contact rate. At his price, these are great numbers for this matchup against Clayton Richard, who has a .315 wOBA with a 42.5% hard hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. I love paying down at catcher, and this will possibly open up another big bat in the rest of my lineup.
Top Bats Too Cheap Here
The prime plays on both sides of the Coors Field game look underpriced on FanDuel tonight. Brandon Belt has the top skill set to play against Antonio Senzatela’s ground ball lean tonight, with Belt carrying a .285 ISO and .420 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the strength of a 47% hard hit rate and 51% fly balls. All that power comes with average contact as well. Belt is firmly in play in all formats tonight. On DK/FDRFT, Belt is appropriately priced, but still a top play, and if going cheap at SP2, you should be able to afford a couple high end bats, and this is where I would start.
Massive Risk/Reward
If you’re playing on FanDuel and you’re willing to take some risk, Sean Newcomb is your guy on FanDuel. There’s a good chance the Yankees have at least six right-handed hitters in the lineup tonight, and they rank first in team ISO and wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. With that said, Newcomb isn’t your typical lefty, as he’s been very good against right-handed hitters. He has a .261 wOBA with a .072 ISO and a 22.6% strikeout rate against righties this season.
Digging into the advanced numbers, Newcomb has a 6.3% hard to soft contact ratio against righties, and a lot of that has to do with his changeup. Check out the Yankees righties’ numbers against changeups this season: Judge has a .083 ISO with a .306 wOBA, Stanton has a .235 ISO with a .395 wOBA, Andujar with a.095 ISO and a .160 wOBA, Hicks with a .400 ISO and a .463 wOBA, and Torres with a .071 ISO and a .592 wOBA. There’s a lot of boom or bust potential here, but at his FanDuel price, I’m willing to take a chance in tournaments.
The Top Four
We don’t have a lot of cheap pitching options on this slate, so I’m looking for some upside. Zack Wheeler is my favorite of the bunch, but there’s certainly some risk here. While the projected lineup for the Blue Jays has seven guys with strikeout rates over 20%, they also have five guys with ISOs over .200 this season.
The good thing is three of those guys are righties, and Wheeler has been really good against righties this season. Granderson worries me the most here. He tends to hit sinkers well, and Wheeler likes to use his sinker against left-handed hitters. Still, I think Wheeler has a lot of upside facing the bottom five of this Toronto team, so it will all depend on how well he pitches to the top four of the order tonight.
Too Cheap For The Matchup
Yarbrough might get a little more traction than usual tonight since he’s actually listed as the starter, rather than his usual spot entering in the 2nd-3rd inning. Either way, he’s not fully priced as a starter for a matchup in Miami against a Marlins team that ranks dead last in the majors in ISO against left-handed pitching by a wide margin. As a strike throwing fly ball pitcher, power is really the only thing likely to hurt Yarbrough, and Miami just doesn’t have it. I would consider him in both cash games and tournaments at this salary.