DFS Alerts
Nice FanDuel Price
If you’re playing on FanDuel tonight, I love the price on Yonder Alonso. The Indians are one of the top offenses on the slate, so Alonso is a really nice value. He has a .196 ISO with a .461 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and he should hit fifth tonight and have plenty of RBI potential. Junis has struggled after a good start to the season, and he’s allowing a lot of hard contact. On top of that, he has a .330 wOBA with a 18.4% strikeout rate against lefties. Junis throws a lot of strikes yet has a swinging strike rate under 10%.
Worth The Risk At His FanDuel Price
DraftKings did a really nice job with pricing Eovaldi today, but he’s still too cheap on FanDuel. Realmuto and Bour are the only two hitters in the projected lineup with an ISO over .200 this season against right-handed pitching. With five projected righties and the pitcher’s spot, this sets up as a good spot for Eovaldi on paper. He has a .256 wOBA with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 2.7% walk rate against righties this season since returning from injury. The ISO at .278 worries me, but with the limited power in this lineup, I’m willing to roll the dice. Eovaldi has been great at pitching ahead thus far, and he has a strong hard to soft contact ratio.
Site Specific
Nathan Eovaldi has been…..good. Eovaldi is coming off a 6 IP, 9 K, 33.1 DK point performance and gets another favorable matchup – this time against the Miami Marlins (23.7 K%; 87 wRC+). Eovaldi hasn’t shown a ton of strikeout upside outside of mowing down the Nats in his last start (22.4 K%; 8.9 SwStr%) but has strong advanced run prevention metrics (3.73 xFIP; 3.59 SIERA). Eovaldi is priced as SP7 on DraftKings which doesn’t give you much room to return strong value but he’s priced as SP16 on FanDuel which leaves him as a great option to pair with your high-priced NYY/Coors stacks.
Highest Upside
Pitching ownership is a bit of a mystery to me for this slate. A sub-$6K Luis Castillo projects to be the heavy chalk at SP2 against the White Sox but I’m unsure of how many people will pay full price for Max Scherzer in a difficult matchup against the Red Sox. If it appears that Scherzer will garner heavy ownership then I will be looking toward the sub-$10K tier on DraftKings for my SP1 in GPPs. Robbie Ray will be making his second start since his return from the DL and should be able to push 100 pitches after throwing 83 in his first start back. When healthy, Ray has some of the best strikeout stuff in the league, posting a 32.8% strikeout rate and 14.2 SwStr% over 162 innings last season. The Cardinals have been well below average offensively this season versus southpaws (23.2 K%; 86 wRC+) and with Chase playing like more of a pitcher’s park due to the humidor, this not only sets up as a good strikeout spot for Ray, but as a good run prevention spot as well. If Ray in fact can push 100 pitches, you could argue he has the highest upside of the slate once matchup + park are factored in.
Sneaky, Sneaky
It’s no secret that Yankee Stadium is the friendliest park for left handed power in the league, yet Braves left-handed hitters are likely to see single-digit ownership on Monday’s nine game slate. Jonathan Loasigia has been extremely impressive for the Yankees (31.6 K%; 13 SwStr%, 3.59 SIERA) so this is more of a play on the park and ownership than the matchup. Braves lefties make for better filler plays than for a whole out stack, with Freeman and Albies being the main targets.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies Cheap Shortstop
Jorge Polanco is expected to be activated from his suspension today and should crack the lineup for the Twins. While I like Suter tonight, it’s hard to pass on this price tag for a shortstop. Polanco doesn’t have massive power, but he does a great job putting the ball in play. In 2017 his strikeout rate against lefties was 14.7%, and while his numbers were down, he’s been a lot better against lefties than righties in his career. He went 8-for-19 in his six minor league games, and hopefully he can hit like he did towards the end of last season.
Rockies in Coors
GPP ownership is a little difficult to predict for Monday’s main slate. Whenever the Rockies play in Coors I always assume they will be the chalk but there’s a chance that the Yankees versus Anibal in New York could pull some ownership away from the Rockies against Madison Bumgarner. In all likelihood, Arenado will garner heavy ownership while some of the secondary Rockies (and lefties) see ownership levels closer to the low-to-mid-teens. If that’s the case, I want to go well overweight on the Rockies. Bumgarner was sharper his last time out but is still far from old form as his SwStr% (7.9%) and strikeout rate (19.2%) are near career lows. We’re dealing with a small sample and odds are he’ll improve on those numbers but this is a great spot to pick on him if you think Bum’s early season numbers are in fact indicative of his current form.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, Chris Iannetta, Charlie Blackmon Solid SP2 Option
We don’t have a lot of cheap options tonight, and that’s why I really like Brent Suter. The Twins rank 24th in team wOBA against lefties, and their wRC+ is under 90. They also have the third-lowest team ISO against lefties this season. The projected starting lineup has a .143 ISO with a .313 wOBA and a 21.2% strikeout rate. Suter doesn’t offer a lot of upside, but against this team, I could see clean innings and possibly pitching 6+ innings. He doesn’t typically walk hitters, and his hard to soft contact ratio is 11.9%, which is excellent. He also tends to pitch ahead in counts, which is another reason to like him on this slate.
Power Stack
Aaron Hicks is coming off a monstrous 3-HR game as he and the Yankees get another tremendous power matchup against Anibal Sanchez in Yankee stadium. Anibal Sanchez has performed well in 2018 but has yet to face an offense as potent as this Yankee’s team. Despite his recent success, Sanchez has allowed 6 HRs over 47 IP this season, which translates to 1.15 HR/9 – not great, but a vast improvement on his past three full seasons (2.22, 1.76, 1.66). Despite a game taking place at Coors, Derek Carty’s projection system THE BAT has the Yankees projected to hit 2.29 HRs which is almost .5 HRs more than the second best team, the Rockies.
Other tagged players: Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton A Perfect Matchup for This Slugger
I have slowed down on my love for picking on James Shields, as he has been very respectable for a good chunk of the 2018 season. However, the strikeouts are still low, the walks are still high, and his SIERA and xFIP remain over 5.00. This is a fantastic spot for the patient bat of Joey Votto, who should theoretically give Shields absolute fits. Shields isn’t going to strike Votto out, and the Cincinnati slugger will definitely take his walks if they are given to him.
Plenty of Potential in a Great Matchup
I have to root for Junis since he is from my home town and went to the same high school as me, but the facts are that he just isn’t getting the job done right now. He’s lost six straight starts and leads the major leagues in home runs allowed. That’s a problem, especially given a matchup against an Indians lineup that offers power from top to bottom. Lindor and Ramirez obviously offer the most punch, but my favorite play on the dollar here just might be Michael Brantley. He comes a little cheaper than the other two, and he took some really good at-bats yesterday against the A’s. Obviously, it’s hard to draw conclusions about a one game sample size, but Brantley is always a steady option, hits in the middle of a dangerous order, and is hitting .308 for the year with 11 home runs. All the power bats are in play for this Cleveland team, but Brantley is my first choice for cash games tonight.
A Great One-Off Value Play
I will highlight Brad Miller as a potential one-off play that can be used in all formats. He has been invigorated since joining the Brewers and has generally hit at the top of in the middle of the lineup against right-handed pitching. The price tag remains dirt cheap on every site, and he has now logged hits in six straight games. With Kyle Gibson trending in the wrong direction and value being a priority on this slate, Miller makes a ton of sense as long as he is hitting in a reasonable spot. Keep an eye out for Milwaukee’s lineup this evening.
A Dirt Cheap Salary Makes Him the Top Value Arm
Luis Castillo, we meet again. He has been victimized by a 20.5% HR/FB rate this year and does have control problems at times, and those factors have combined to give him a 5.85 ERA despite a SIERA and xFIP right around 4.00. There’s decent strikeout upside in his arm when he is on, and tonight’s matchup is a favorable one against a weak White Sox offense that is prone to the strikeout and is losing their designated hitter tonight. I understand that it’s not exactly comfortable to target Castillo, but the matchup is great and he is dirt cheap for DFS purposes. This is the salary saver we need on a slate like this, and he’s my favorite SP #2 choice for all formats if you need that salary relief in order to fit in an ace pitcher and/or expensive bats.
Topping the List of Aces
Given Kluber’s recent rough patch, you could certainly make a case that Scherzer grades out as the clear top arm tonight in terms of talent. His 37% strikeout rate also dwarfs Kluber’s, which adds more fuel to Scherzer being your highest upside arm on the slate. Throw in the 2.40 SIERA and you have an obvious selection. The only problem here is that Scherzer draws a very difficult matchup against the Red Sox, who can hit the ball as well as any team in the league and don’t have a propensity for strikeouts. The good news is that Scherzer faces them in Washington, where Boston will lose the benefit of their designated hitter spot. Scherzer also has the talent to perform in any matchup, too. It’s a very close call for cash games and is almost a coin flip for me in those formats, but Scherzer is the clear choice for tournament upside. I won’t argue with either selection.
Reynaldo Lopez allows fly balls at a 53.4% clip to LHB, further compounding his 6.21 xFIP and 4.1% K-BB% against them
Lopez heads into his start against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park on Sunday afternoon looking to avoid his third consecutive outing of allowing at least four runs, but he appears to have his work cut out for him facing off with a scorching Rangers offense that has scored in double figures in each of the first two games of this series. Despite some prospect pedigree coming up through the Washington Nationals minor league system, Lopez has really struggled to put it all together at the Major League level, as he continues to sport a merely average 16.8% strikeout rate, high 9.8% walk rate, and 5.56 xFIP that is nearly two full runs higher than his 3.73 ERA through 16 starts this season, signaling negative regression should be on the horizon sooner rather than later. Not only that, but his groundball ability versus left-handed hitters (29.8%) has become nearly nonexistent, which has caused Lopez’ xFIP to balloon to 6.21 against southpaws, neither of which are encouraging signs in a matchup with this Rangers squad that possesses plenty of left-handed power bats that can take advantage of his lack of contact control in the Texas heat. So, needless to say, there’s a reason the Rangers own the highest implied total (5.9) outside of the windy Wrigley Field game and elevates Shin-Soo Choo (47.5% HH%, 0.243 ISO, 0.480 xwOBA vs RHP) and Nomar Mazara (39.9% HH%, 0.190 ISO, 0.428 xwOBA vs RHP) vs RHP to elite options in all formats, whether individually or part of a full stack in large-field tournaments. In a tier below, Joey Gallo (50.8% HH%, 0.263 ISO, 0.575 xwOBA vs RHP) and Rougned Odor (39.3% HH%, 0.203 ISO vs RHP since 2017) are volatile, high-upside targets given their power potential that unfortunately coincide with astronomical strikeout rates against right-handed pitching. If looking to differentiate Texas stacks a bit in tournaments, Ryan Rua (0.421 xwOBA vs RHP) is an intriguing low-cost option after homering in last night’s contest, though he does sacrifice the platoon advantage against Lopez and has also struck out nearly 50% of the time in 56 plate appearances versus righties in the Majors this season, relegating him to a stack-only tournament play.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Ryan Rua, Reynaldo Lopez