DFS Alerts
Huge Discount for This Guys Upside
There is always a chance that Hill starts to get a blister in the first inning or so and if you played him your day is over right when it begins, but you aren’t going to see a pitcher this cheap with this upside often. Hill gets a matchup against the Mets who, in the last month, have been one of the worst hitting teams in MLB history. Hill on the other hand, had a 30% k rate last year, has taken multiple no hitters late into games in the last 2 years, and could easily end up with double digit K’s in this matchup. Don’t worry too much about Dave Roberts yanking him early and don’t worry about his blister problems. This price tag is way too low and you should be playing him everywhere.
Tyler Chatwood (personal) scratched Sunday; Mike Montgomery will start in his place
Chatwood has been scratched from his scheduled start for the Chicago Cubs and will not pitch in Sunday’s matchup against the Cincinnati Reds as he deals with a personal matter. He’ll be replaced on the mound by left-hander Mike Montgomery, so his presence on the bump does alter the projected outlook of some of Reds hitters, especially the lefties, so be sure to double check projections in LinepHQ or the projections for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for this afternoon’s main slate.
As reported by: Jesse Rogers via Twitter
Dave Roberts acknowledged that Clayton Kershaw will have a pitch count, but did not specify what that limit will be
Dave Roberts acknowledged that Clayton Kershaw will have a pitch count, but did not specify what that limit will be.
A Baller on a Budget
If you haven’t already heard, Moncada is very good at baseball. On the year, Moncada owns a .201 ISO, .331 wOBA, and .564 CXwOBA vs. RHP. He is absolutely mashing the ball and he gets a matchup vs. an absolute trash pitcher in Daniel Mengden. Mengden is only striking out lefties at a 12.7X clip thi year and is giving up a crazy high 41.1% hard contact rate. Add in that Moncada should be batting at the top of the order and you know you’re in for at least 4 to 5 AB’s in this game. Don’t overthink this and lock in the guy who’s way too underpriced at just 3.7k on DK.
Solid Metrics
McCullers has been largely underwhelming from a fantasy perspective this season despite putting up some solid metrics – 3.74 SIERA, 24.9 K%, 12.5 SwStr%. His swinging strike % is 16th best among starters this season and shows that he does have some upside in the strikeout department. He’ll square off against a Royals offense that doesn’t strikeout much (18.3 K% vs RHP) but that is poor overall offensively with the third worst wRC+ (82) in the league versus RHP. Due to the lack of mid or low-tier SP2 options on Saturday’s main slate combined with the abundance of value hitters I’m looking to pair McCullers with deGrom on multi-SP sites.
Cheap Coors Exposure
Paying 3.6k for a good player in Coors should be enough of a reason to play this guy, but if you need more convincing here you go. The biggest concern we have with Brinson is his K rate which is mostly negated by Anderson’s subpar K rate vs righties (19.8%). On the year Brinsons wOBA (.284) is a full 150 points lower than his CXwOBA (.429) vs. LHP and he still owns an ISO of .167. He is mashing the ball, should be in the 6 hole, isn’t going to be that highly owned, and is a legit player. Don’t overthink thi and throw him into your lineup
Serviceable Power
The Astros are one of two teams on Saturday’s late slate that find themselves in a good offensive environment – their implied run total currently sits second highest on the slate at 5.3. Josh Reddick will likely hit sixth for the Astros in what is a favorable power matchup for the lefty slugger. Ian Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher (30.5 GB%) that has struggled to keep the ball in the yard (1.58 HR/9; 13.7% HR/FB). Reddick has always had serviceable power against right handed pitching (.184 ISO) and a strong overall offensive skill-set (117 wRC+). Reddick is cheap across the industry and jumps out as one of the top pt/$ plays on the board.
Someone Explain How This Guy's so Cheap
Disclamer: If you’re reading this and Sonny Gray is not already in your lineup, you are a bad DFS player
Plain and simple, Gray is the best play on the entire slate and the only reason to fade him is ownership. Over his past 4 games, Gray has scored 20.45, -.15, 31.6, and 24.5 points (the one game was against a great Nats team so I’m ignoring it). Gray Is one of the most up and down pitchers in the league and right now he is spitting straight fire. On top of all this he gets a matchup vs. a high strikeout Rays team who’s projected lineup has an average k rate of 25.1%. Lock him in everywhere and move on.
Bad But Valuable
Things I don’t like about Brock Holt: 1) He’s terrible. 2) He’s really bad. Things I like about Brock Holt: 1) He’s cheap. 2) He has SS eligibility on DK. 3) He’s on the team with the highest implied run total of the slate. As you can tell, I certainly don’t think fondly of Brock Holt but I am willing to overlook that due to the context of the slate where cheap hitters are extremely valuable. Another important note is that Holt could find himself hitting top five in the Red Sox lineup if Bogaerts is unable to go Saturday night.
The Pivot Choice on the Mound
How about Eduardo Rodriguez! He is quietly (finally) becoming a consistently solid big league arm. He has now picked up victories in six straight starts, allowing two runs or less in all of them. Almost every metric is solid in 2018, from his 27% strikeout rate to his 7% walk rate to his low hard contact rate. The improved command is a huge plus, and he’ll have the splits advantage against the likes of Seager, Span, and Gordon. As long as he can avoid the hot bat of Nelson Cruz, it would be no surprise to see Rodriguez continue to pitch well.
Fire Emoji
It’s tough to truly state just how great deGrom has been this season. deGrom sits only behind Max Scherzer with a 15.7 SwStr% and leads the league in only allowing 1.3 barrels/plate appearance. His 32.1% strikeout rate is fifth best among starters this season and his 2.76 SIERA is fourth best. deGrom is easily the top pitcher throwing on Saturday’s main slate and he’s worth the price tag even in a largely neutral matchup against the Dodgers.
This Guy has Been Great, but Has Great Stuff
Look, if you know someone who got struck by lightening twice, you’re not going to say he’s a good conductor. You’re gonna say that dude’s unlucky. Same situation here with Suarez. You don’t find a guy too often that pitches half his games in SF and has an xFIP that is much lower than his ERA, but thats what you have with Suarez. On the year he has an xFIP a full 1.4 points lower than his ERA. On top of that he owns a 23.5% k rate and a tiny 4.9% walk rate. The only way that suarez gets into trouble is with his hard contact rate which is mostly negated cause of his ballpark. He draws a matchup vs. a not great Padres team so you know the upside is already high and the fact that he’s a very good pitcher just raises it more. Don’t pay attention to whats happened, pay attention to what should happen, and what should happen is that Suarez should crush this Padres team.
A Great Top-End Pitching Choice
deGrom is clearly the top pitching option on the slate. He is the most logical choice in all formats, as he has put up ridiculous numbers this year that include a 1.51 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate, and a 25% hard contact rate allowed. He is also generating soft contact at a 25% clip, and it’s not very often you see a pitcher that is allowing hard contact and soft contact at equal clips. The issue is that deGrom carries a hefty salary tag, and he’s difficult to fit into lineups along with expensive bats on this short slate. The other issue might be Mother Nature, as it appears that the weather might come into play here. Assuming the weather is good, I’ll happily target deGrom with confidence in all formats. That’s about where it starts and ends with this game, though it should be a fun matchup between deGrom and the newly activated Clayton Kershaw.
Blue Jays of a Feather Flock Together
Jaime Barria has actually shown strong reverse splits this season, so the RHBs are my preferred choices against him. That starts with Teoscar Hernandez, who has been a solid option at the top of the order to go along with a 39% hard contact rate against RHP. His BABIP should improve from its current .299 mark given his batted ball profile, and I would expect better numbers in the second half. Don’t sleep on Hernandez this evening as a fine mid-range play for all formats.
The Value Bat on a Short Saturday Slate
Josh Reddick remains viable because of his mega cheap price tag. While he certainly has struggled a bit in 2018, the power potential is still there, and this lineup should turn over several times this evening. That’s enough to make Reddick a core play on a slate that is somewhat starved for value. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him go yard against a pitcher like Ian Kennedy.