DFS Alerts
Watch The Rain
The top SP2 option comes down to CC Sabathia and Julio Teheran. If you have followed my blurbs before you’ll know I always side with the pitcher that 1) doesn’t have to face a DH and 2) gets to face a Padres lineup that owns the league’s third worst strikeout rate versus RHP (25.6%). You’ll have to keep an eye on the weather in Atlanta – if rain becomes an issue then Sabathia fills in as my top SP2 option on the slate.
Other tagged players: CC Sabathia
Clear Cut
Aaron Nola is the top overall pitching option on Sunday’s main slate and it’s not relatively close. The only problem is his hefty price tag on DraftKings. Still, it seems like the move in cash games is to pair Nola with one of the SP2’s in the mid $7K’s (Sabathia, Teheran) which leaves you with ~ $3,700 left on average for your hitters. Nola is the clear cut cash game option on FanDuel where his high price tag is non-prohibitive.
A Cheap Play from the Highest Implied Team Total
At the time of this writing, the Astros have a 5.89 implied team total (the highest on the board). Reddick hasn’t had great numbers this year (.127 ISO & .311 wOBA vs. RHP), but he gets a below average pitcher in Kelly and the weather should be in the 90’s tomorrow meaning that the ball should be flying. When you consider his 3.3K price tag on DK and knowing he has a good shot at 5 AB’s, the Astros high implied total and road team assuring 9 innings of plate appearances, Reddick is one of the best cash game plays on the board from a low dollar amount.
Double Dong Possibility Here
There are three things I look for when I’m thinking of playing Davidson: does the pitcher give up hard contact, fly balls and does he K guys at a high rate. All these boxes are checked with a pitcher like Hardy. Since to the beginning of 2017, Hardy has a below average K rate (17.9%) and above average hard hit (33.5%) and FB rate (42%). Davidson’s wOBA is a full 150 points lower than his CXwOBA and he own a .235 ISO since 2017. With his 31% K rate mostly mitigated and his multi position eligibility over on DK, I’m going to be throwing him in all over the place. Don’t trust him in cash, but in GPP’s you aren’t gonna find a much better play for the price.
A Lefty Masher at a Tough Position
Suzuki is an auto play for me everytime he goes up against a lefty. Since the beginning of 2017, no braves player has a higher ISO (.340) or a higher wOBA (.431) vs. LHP. Suzuki is outperforming both Freeman and Albies in both categories. He gets a matchup against Stram who owns a horrible 5.23 xFIP and 13.8% BB rate on the year. Guys are going to be on base for him the entire game leaving a whole lot of chances for RBI’s and at his price tag of 3.4k at the catcher position he’s a great value. Play him in both tournaments and cash.
A Decent Arm in a Great Matchup
Chase Anderson is the grocery store version of sushi, the cheapest I’m willing to go and still feel safe. Anderson is one season removed from a 2.74 ERA so we know this guy has good stuff, but he has been less than great this year. If we look at his past, his ERA outperforming his xFIP is not that out of the realm of possibility, so holding his 4.13 ERA and his 16.7% K rate up against the Phillies who’s projected lineup grades out at a 27.5% K rate and .318 wOBA shows us there is some safety in this matchup. There isn’t a much better upside spot on the entire slate either and with no pitcher below a 7.7K price tag remotely resembling safety, I’m more than happy to pay this price tag for Anderson.
A Risky, but cheap SP2
This is one of those situation where you go to a yard sale and see a giant Val Kilmer statue on sale for $3. You know you don’t want this, but the price is too good to pass up. Odorizzi is not doing well from a real life standpoint, but he does have the upside that we want for DFS. Odorizzi has a 3 7+ K outings in his last six and owns a near 23% K rate on the year. He draws a matchup against the indians who are one of the tougher matchups in baseball, but after the top 4 batters in the lineup, there is some upside. The projected lineup CLE is rolling out has 5 batters with a 20%+ k rate and one with 30%+. There is a good chance that Odorizzi gets shelled here and this is strictly a GPP play, but in his price range you will not find someone with higher upside and lower ownership.
Wei-Yin Chen sports a -0.7% K-BB% and 6.61 xFIP versus RHB through nine starts
Chen is set to make his 10th start since being activated from the disabled list in late-April, and he’s generally been pretty atrocious outside a couple of outlier outings, as evidenced by a 6.13 ERA and an inability to make it past the fifth inning in all but three of his 2018 appearances. Chen has been absolutely shelled in several of those starts, and that is currently reflected in his 5.68 xFIP and 5.38 SIERA, numbers that appear to be well deserved considering he has been relatively on par with his career averages with a .289 BABIP and 71.2% left-on-base-percentage thus far. A large majority of his troubles are stemming from significant control issues (12.0% BB%) that had initially led him to walk more batters than he struck for a brief stretch of the season, and on top of that, both right-handed and left-handed hitters have combined to generate hard contact 38.0% of the time, which becomes a recipe for disaster when combined with a 47.2% fly ball rate and uninspiring 16.9% strikeout rate. The lack of command to batters on both sides of the plate makes this Baltimore Orioles offense an intriguing one to target in all formats, especially with a lineup chock full of right-handed bats, and Vegas has taken notice since the Orioles currently tied with the Cleveland Indians for the highest implied total on Saturday’s afternoon slate of games. Even though Baltimore has largely struggled during the first half of the season, Manny Machado (42.7% HH%, 0.264 ISO, 0.423 xwOBA vs LHP since 2017) remains the obvious top option of any Orioles hitter given his strong splits against left-handed pitching to this point in his career, but he’s closely followed by Jonathan Schoop (0.226 ISO, 0.426 xwOBA vs LHP since 2017), who may be overlooked by the masses due to his slow start to the year, despite his own impressive numbers against lefties the last two seasons. Then, just a tier below, Danny Valencia (0.182 ISO, 0.425 xwOBA vs LHP since 2017), Trey Mancini (0.402 xwOBA vs LHP since 2017), and Austin Wynns (0.455 xwOBA vs LHP in 10 career PA) are all perfectly fine options as members of a stack or as one-offs in large-field tournament formats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jonathan Schoop, Danny Valencia, Trey Mancini, Austin Wynns, Wei-Yin Chen
Justin Upton scratched Saturday; Chris Young replaces
Upton has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Saturday’s matchup with the Oakland Athletics due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Chris Young, who will play left field and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Andrelton Simmons up to second and Martin Maldonado up to fifth, respectively, while Mike Trout will slide down one batting position to the three-hole. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Angels order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Sean Manaea on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Jeff Fletcher via Twitter Sneaky stack in GPP's
I may be a bit biased on this one as I am a Dodger fan and I despise MadBum as a human being.. But I think the Dodgers are my favorite off the board stack on tonights 4 game slate. Bumgarner has not been quite right in his first 2 starts back and I think he will struggle again with the red hot Dodgers tonight in a warm game at Dodger stadium this evening. The top 6 in the Dodger order have ISO’s above .188 vs lefties since the start of 2017 and several have had success against Bumgarner in the past. Especially Kike who is 14 for 30 with 3 HR’s and 5 doubles. I am not sure I will be all in on the Dodgers but I think they are an excellent low owned stack with upside and will have a ton of exposure in GPP’s.
Other tagged players: Justin Turner, Logan Forsythe, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Matt Kemp, Enrique Hernandez
Cheap Exposure to a High Total Game
Yesterday, the Rangers game put up 11 runs in the first few innings because of the heat and today it’s expected to be around 95 degrees again. Most of the guys in the lineup are priced up again, but DeShields is batting second in the lineup and is only priced at 3.5K over on DK. on the year vs. LHP, Deshields owns a .377 wOBA and draws a matchup against Freeland who owns a .wOBA which is 50 points higher vs. righties than lefties. DeShields is probably a much better cash game play, but he does have SB upside and could end up with double digit points.
A Cheap Splits guy
We all know that the Orioles are a dumpster fire at this point, but Valencia is one of the guys that’s actually hitting the ball decent. On the year, he owns a CXwOBA that is .130 higher than his wOBA (.332 compared to .469) vs. RHP. He draws a matchup against Chen who might be the worst pitcher in the majors this year. Chen is only striking out righties at a 13.6% clip and walking them at 14.3% rate. Add in Chen’s 41.7% hard hit rate and you can assume that Valencia is in for a monster day.
A Value Guy who Crushed the Minors
We don’t have a huge sample size for Murphy in the majors (just 116 AB’s), but his numbers against lefties (.077 ISO & .186 wOBA) are terrible and there is just no reason for that. Against righties in the majors, Murphy owns a elite .391 ISO & .444 wOBA vs. RHP and consistently had a .300 ISO and +.400 wOBA in the minors. There is no rational reason to assume that Murphy is anything worse than just a splits neutral player, and if so, we get one of the better young prospects in the league at a sparse C position for just 3.3K. Add in that Minor is a lackluster pitcher and it should be 90 degrees out in Texas and you have a legit chance at the highest PT/$ batter on the slate.
Low Upside, High Floor Pick
Nova is probably the second best option on the slate for a cheap pitcher and that’s saying something. Since 2017, Nova has been much better against righties than lefties (11.8% K% and .369 wOBA vs lefties compared to a 22% K% and .300 wOBA vs righties). Unfortunately, He draws a matchup against the reds who are probably going to have 6 lefties in the lineup. Luckily Nova is a great GB pitcher, doesn’t walk a whole lot of guys, and I believe that his extreme K splits are likely to regress toward the mean. With all this going for him in a pitchers ballpark, Nova probably has the safest PT/$ floor of any pitcher on the slate considering his $6K price tag on DK.
Better Than His numbers Show
Look, plain and simple this is a tough slate for value pitching. If you want to pay up for Scherzer there aren’t many great options, but Castillo is a much better option than you might think. On the year, Castillo’s ERA is almost a full 2 points higher than his xFIP (5.79 compared to 3.88). Most of this can completely be explained my his way too high HR/FB rate. However, he’s playing in a pitcher friendly park with less than average power numbers (.171 ISO). When you add in Castillo’s 23.3% K rate, even against a tough Pirates team that doesn’t K a whole lot, Castillo has the highest PT/$ upside of any pitcher on the slate.