DFS Alerts
Stack, Stack, Stack
The Reds aren’t playing in the best hitter’s park around, but they get to use the DH in this series and they draw an exploitable matchup against Jason Hammel. On the season, Hammel has allowed a .422 xwOBA to lefties and a .362 xwOBA to righties. He has also allowed a 42%+ hard contact rate to batters from both sides of the plate. The fact that the Reds couldn’t get anything going against Ian Kennedy last night could help lower their ownership tonight. They are one of my favorite offenses to target, specifically Joey Votto, who owns a .466 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Great Spot at Home Against a Southpaw
The Cardinals are one of my favorite stacks of the slate. They are facing a struggling left-handed pitcher that has a significantly higher hard contact rate than ground ball rate. On the season, Eric Lauer has allowed a .362 xwOBA to lefties and a .371 xwOBA to righties, so we can feel confident targeting batters from both sides of the plate. Marcell Ozuna is affordable across the industry and owns a .356 xwOBA against southpaws this season.
Don't Stop... Believing... Keep Playing this Philly
Pivetta has cooled off in his last two starts, but still owns a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 7%. He has done a nice job of limiting hard contact, which is needed for fly-ball pitchers in this ballpark. I’ve been picking on the Rockies all season when playing outside of Coors Field and that’s not going to change tonight. Their projected lineup has a .324 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Pivetta is cheap, he’s a favorite at home, and he has plenty of strikeout upside.
Throwing out the Recent Form
I know that the Padres’ offense has been tough in this series and I know that Weaver is coming into the game in bad form, but how do we fade him at this price? If we ignore the short term and zoom out, he would be a strong play at $10,000 in this matchup. The projected lineup for the Padres has a .278 xwOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They have been the slump-busting matchup that pitchers look forward to. I’m throwing out the recent form and will be loading up on Weaver in all formats.
Potential right-handed value atop the Marlins lineup against a pitcher who gets hit hard by RHBs
While the immediate lean is towards pitching against the Marlins, especially in the negative run environment in Miami, Andrew Suarez may not be a poor choice at a reasonably low price, but realize he has just a 7.0 SwStr% and RHBs have a .372 wOBA (.376 xwOBA) and 44.6 Hard% against him this year. Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson provide some value at the top of this lineup, both have a 123 wRC+ and are above a .350 xwOBA with an ISO within 10 points of .150 against LHP over the last calendar year. Anderson has a team leading 223 wRC+ over the last week as well. Castro (36.4 Hard%) is the only batter among the first six below a 45 Hard% over the last week as a matter of fact.
Other tagged players: Brian Anderson, Andrew Suarez
Phllies attack Tyler Anderson, who's xwOBA is better than actual vs RHBs, entirely with the platoon advantage today
The Phillies will crowd Tyler Anderson with eight RHBs on Wednesday. Batters from that side have a .341 wOBA against him since last year, but just a .319 xwOBA, though a 39.1 GB% against them is still dangerous in a power friendly park in Philadelphia. The Phillies have a 4.50 implied run line that’s on the upper half of the board, though a lack of potent RHBs with which to attack here. No single hitter in the lineup has a hard hit rate above 30% over the last week and nobody aside from Carlos Santana (127 wRC+, .183 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is even above 20%. However, not a single Philly is above $4K on DK or $3.6K on FD, giving Cesar Hernandez (124 wRC+, .126 ISO), Rhys Hoskins (149 wRC+, .294 ISO) and Aaron Altherr (102 wRC+, .206 ISO), along with Carlos Santana, some potential value, as the only batters in the lineup above an 82 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Tyler Anderson Daily Bullpen Alert: Two of the worst bullpens in baseball over the last month could be active tonight
A number of quality bullpens are expected to be active tonight behind pitchers that generally don’t go very deep into games. Nine of tonight’s 19 pitchers have averaged fewer than 5.1 IP in starts this season. First up is Eric Lauer, who’s likely to give the San Diego bullpen a lot of work for a second consecutive day. Matt Strahm and Adam Cimber combined for three innings each on Wednesday and are unlikely available tonight. The excessive workload this season has probably contribute to a decline in the San Diego bullpen to a 4.29 FIP and 12.6 K-BB% over the last 30 days. Kenta Maeda makes his return from the DL, but the Dodger bullpen has a 3.17 FIP and 18.2 K-BB% over the last 30 days that’s near the top of the league. The Yankee bullpen has looked more human (3.91 FIP, 17.9 K-BB%) over the most recent month, but is still probably one players won’t want to attack behind Sonny Gray. The Nationals (3.47 FIP, 18.0 K-BB%) and Phillies (3.18 FIP, 19 K-BB%) have both been top bullpens over the last month behind Eric Fedde and Nick Pivetta, respectively, tonight. The Cardinals (3.93 FIP, 13.9 K-BB%) back Luke Weaver. Now, for the bullpens players should be looking to attack. The Marlins (4.43 FIP, 9.2 K-BB%) will be behind Caleb Smith (5 IP per start). The Rockies (4.74 FIP, 12.1 K-BB%) and Reds (4.80 FIP, 8.7 K-BB%) have the highest two FIPs in the majors over the last month and are in support of Tyler Anderson and Mahle, who both average just barely above five innings per start this year.
Kyle Seager (personal) scratched Wednesday; Andrew Romine replaces
Seager has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Wednesday’s matchup with the Los Angeles Angels due to a personal matter. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Andrew Romine, who will play third base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Denard Span, Ryon Healy, Ben Gamel, and Mike Zunino all up one batting position, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Mariners order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Garrett Richards at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Ryan Divish via Twitter
Mid-priced pitchers in great upside spots, but with workload concerns tonight
Aside from a relatively strong top of the board, there are a number of mid or upper-mid-range pitchers with some upside in great spots and potentially a lot of value. Kenta Maeda has a 36.7 K% over the last month that’s second best on the board, though it’s just three starts and he’s returning from the DL with a hip issue. He has a .284 xwOBA this season supported by and 86.7 mph aEV and 5.1% Barrels/BBE. Workload is certainly a concern, as it always is with him, but even more so with the two week layoff. The matchup is optimal though, in a negative run environment against a Texas offense with an 85 wRC+ and 25.9 K% vs RHP, who lose the DH. Nick Pivetta has a 30.4 K% and .277 xwOBA over the last month. The concern here is that he hasn’t gone more than five innings in three straight starts, but he gets the Rockies at home (80 wRC+, 23.8 K% on the road, 75 wRC+, 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP) and costs $8K or less on either site. His opponent, Tyler Anderson, may be worth a look as well against the Phillies (85 wRC+, 23.1 K% vs LHP) for around $6K on either site. He has just a 14.4 K% over the last month, but an 11+ SwStr% in two straight starts. Luke Weaver is another pitcher who struggles with workload. He’s thrown five innings or less in three straight and eight of 13 starts this year with a league average 20.6 K% and great 85.9 mph aEV. Lack of innings likely explains the price tag below $8K (just $6.7K on FanDuel) against the Padres (25.9 K% vs RHP). Andrew Suarez probably warrants mention for around $7K or less against the Marlins (83 wRC+ at home, 86 wRC+ vs LHP). However, they do not strike out very much (11.1 K-BB% vs LHP) and his 23.6 K% is backed by just a 7.0 SwStr%. He has a .354 xwOBA over the last month as well. His opponent, Caleb Smith, costs a bit more against the Giants (14.5 K-BB% vs LHP), who are predominantly right-handed and, naturally, better against LHP (102 wRC+). His strikeout rate on the season has dropped below 30% (29.2%) with a 24.8 K% over the last 30 days that’s still extremely respectable, but is better supported by and 11.7 SwStr% both over the last 30 days and for the season.
Other tagged players: Kenta Maeda, Tyler Anderson, Luke Weaver, Caleb Smith, Andrew Suarez Tonight's top overall pitcher may not be the top value among three expensive arms
Gerrit Cole is the top pitcher on the board tonight and also the most expensive one. Nobody is within seven points of his 37.8 K%, within half a run of his 2.41 SIERA or 10 points of his .270 xwOBA. He’s facing an Oakland offense that hits the ball hard (26+ Hard-Soft% at home, vs RHP and over the last seven days), but has just an 8.7 HR/FB at home and 14.2 K-BB% vs RHP. The A’s have just a 3.03 implied run line that’s worst on the board by a full quarter run. Should the salary be available, he’s your man tonight, but he may not necessarily be the top value among the three high priced arms tonight. That honor may fall to Trevor Bauer, who has double digit strikeouts in three straight starts and four of his last five. As a result, his 37.1 K% over the last 30 days tops the board, as does his 2.31 SIERA. The White Sox (55 wRC+, 32.5 K%, 3.8 HR/FB last seven days, 17.5 K-BB% vs RHP) should be no match for him with a price tag more than $1.5K less than Cole on either site. Jose Berrios is the last of the $10K pitchers tonight and projects well behind the other two. He’s thrown at least seven innings in four of his last five starts with a 31.7 K% and 2.67 SIERA over that span. He’s one of the best contact managers in the game when he’s on (.290 xwOBA, 85.9 mph aEV this year) and is certainly not a bad choice at all to go deep and prevent runs against a Detroit offense with just an 85 wRC+ and 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP. Detroit is the only positive run environment of the three parks these pitchers will be pitching in though and the strikeout upside may be much lower for him than either Bauer or Cole. The Tigers have a 19.8 K% at home and 21.3 K% vs RHP.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, Jose Berrios Justin Upton has been better against LHP than Mike Trout over the last calendar year
Garrett Richard has broken a stretch of four straight starts with four strikeouts or less with 16 over his last 47 batters. He still has a double digit walk rate (11.7%) and his aEV is an uncharacteristic 90.3 mph this season, but his 27.1 K% is behind only two pitchers on the afternoon board (minus the early game). He’s faced the Mariners one time this year, striking out eight of 23 batters without allowing a run. He’s held batters from either side to a .275 or lower wOBA since last season with a 54 GB% against LHBs. However, xwOBA pushes him up to .320 against RHBs with a 37.5 Hard% over that span, which makes a couple of red hot bats in Nelson Cruz (136 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mitch Haniger (130 wRC+, .237 ISO) interesting. Both exceed a 150 wRC+ and 40 Hard% over the last week. On the other side, Marco Gonzales has been effecient (3.28 ERA, 3.77 SIERA, .329 xwOBA, 5% Barrels/BBE). He’s missed completing six innings in nine straight starts by a single out, but is a left-handed pitcher with just a 16.5 K% and 7.5 SwStr% over the last month. It’s going to be hard to stay away from Mike Trout (180 wRC+, .268 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) or Justin Upton (185 wRC+, .374 ISO) on a difficult slate. Both exceed a 180 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Marco Gonzales, Garrett Richards, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger Pirates and D'Backs have scored 35 runs last two days, but focus should be on pitching today
The Pirates and Diamondbacks have played two straight blowout affaird with 35 total runs scored, putting the humidor to shame, but pitching should be the focus this afternoon with Jameson Taillon facing Zack Greinke. Both teams have an implied run line below four. Zack Greinke misses more bats (25.9 K%, 11.7 SwStr%), but also allows harder contact (.329 xwOBA, 89.6 mph aEV, 9.9% Barrels/BBE). He would also appear to have the more difficult matchup against a Pittsburgh team without much power (98 wRC+, 9.6 HR/FB, 10.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but also without a lot of swing and miss (19.2 K% vs RHP). Taillon misses fewer bats (22.7 K%, 9.7 SwStr%), but manages contact better (.280 xwOBA, 51.2 GB%, 86.6 mph aEV) and has the better matchup against a horrific offense against RHP this season (79 wRC+, 25 K%). Recently, his strikeouts have been up (26.2% last four starts), but he’s also allowed 12 ERs over his last four starts as well (although with just a 63.5 LOB%). Lineups for this game have not yet been confirmed, but if looking to oppose one of these pitchers, power is what you’re looking for in the Pittsburgh lineup. Greinke has held batters from either side of the plate to a .310 or lower wOBA and xwOBA since last season, but both have an equal 38% hard hit rate. Francisco Cervelli, Austin Meadows and Gregory Polanco all tie for the team lead with exactly a .192 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Cervelli (.372) and Colin Moran (.368) are the best by xwOBA. Taillon has a much larger split, ceding some 60 points to LHBs in terms of wOBA and xwOBA since last year. Paul Goldschmidt (110 wRC+, .207 ISO) remains so hot he has to be considered (407 wRC+, 81 Hard% last seven days), but Jake Lamb (109 wRC+, .220 ISO), Daniel Descalso (119 wRC+, .195 ISO) and David Peralta (120 wRC+, .204 ISO) are likely your top LH bats here.
Other tagged players: Zack Greinke, Francisco Cervelli, Colin Moran, Gregory Polanco, Austin Meadows, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso, David Peralta Yefry Ramirez had a very competent 16.9 K-BB% at AAA this year
Twenty-four year old Yefry Ramirez was with his third organization before ever reaching AAA this year, where he’s had a very competent 16.9 K-BB% through 60 innings. In fact, he hasn’t been below a 20% strikeout rate at any level since rookie ball in 2014. None of that matters against the Red Sox. He will be the pitcher who is picked on this afternoon, especially with capable pitchers going in almost every other later afternoon affair. Ramirez does not even appear to be available on DraftKings. The obvious applies for Mookie Betts (124 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (168 wRC+, .370 ISO) with Andrew Benintendi (138 wRC+, .213 ISO) joining the club this year as well. Cheaper exposure comes in the form of Eduardo Nunez (112 wRC+, .160 ISO). There can be some justification for fading the team everyone is expected to be all over against an unknown arm with decent minor league numbers, making his major league debut.
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez, Eduardo Nunez Chris Sale snapped a streak of six straight starts with a HR allowed last time out
Although the later afternoon slate on FanDuel (all on the primary DraftKings afternoon slate as well) is filled with reasonable pitching choices, Chris Sale is the obvious top arm. He struck out 10 White Sox over eight innings in his last start, allowing only a run and snapping a streak of six straight starts with a HR allowed. The matchup should be similarly strong against a Baltimore offense that leans heavily right-handed, but has just an 83 wRC+ against southpaws and -3.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week overall. Sale’s 33.3 K% and 15.7 SwStr% are both high marks on the board for the entire day. His .265 xwOBA and 84.8 mph aEV are behind just deGrom this afternoon. The Baltimore lineup has not yet been confirmed, but with a board low 2.98 implied run line, there should be little interest in any of their bats.
Overlooked Again?
After getting Correa under 20% in some tournaments last night, I hope people overlook Murphy on FanDuel tonight. In 2017, he had a .231 ISO with a .398 wOBA against right-handed pitching. With all the rehab, it’s tough to say where he’s at right now, but it’s hard to believe they would bring him back if he wasn’t ready. Sonny Gray has pitched well against lefties this season, but he is allowing a lot of hard contact. At this price for Murphy, I’d pretty much play him against anyone in Yankee Stadium.
