DFS Alerts
Cubs take advantage of Chacin's platoon splits with six straight LHBs to open the lineup
The Cubs have a 4.57 implied run line that’s tops on the early FanDuel slate or second best on the afternoon at DraftKings. Manager Joe Maddon is doing the smart thing in loading up the first six spots in the order with left-handed bats (no Kris Bryant or Willson Contreras) against Jhoulys Chacin. Overall, Chacin has a 23.7 K% and .292 xwOBA over the last 30 days, but longer term, he has a massive platoon split. Left-handed batters have a .341 wOBA (.356 xwOBA) against him since last year with a 35.1 Hard%. Every one of those LHBs have a 100+ wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Tommy La Stella (112 wRC+, .122 ISO, .333 xwOBA) offers affordable exposure to this lineup in the three spot. Jason Heyward (105 wRC+, .140 ISO) is still below $4K and has a lineup leading 165 wRC+ over the last week. Ian Happ (117 wRC+, .266 ISO) is similarly affordable in the fifth spot. Anthony Rizzo (137 wRC+, .240 ISO) is the top bat in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Jhoulys Chacin, Tommy La Stella, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ
Great Pitcher To Attack
I wish Gyorko was hitting better than 6th, but I love his situation tonight for the Cardinals and he’s one of the cheapest options. In a very limited sample size (30 PAs), he has a .458 ISO with a .549 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Lauer is certainly a pitcher I want to attack on this slate. He has a .403 wOBA with a .211 ISO and an 88.6 average exit velocity against righties this season. He also has a 31.7% hard to soft contact ratio against righties. The Cardinals are one of my favorite teams to attack tonight, and I really like this price for Gyorko in particular.
J.A. Happ struggled in last start against Rays, faces a different lineup today
J.A. Happ may be the second most interesting pitcher behind deGrom on the early only slate or behind Sale for the afternoon DraftKings board. In fact, the Rays have either the lowest or second lowest Vegas run line on the board at 3.64 runs. Happ, who likes to elevate his fastball, had maybe his worst start of the season last time he faced these Rays (5.2 IP – 4 H – 3 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 3 K), who had some early season success against fastballs, but have since dropped towards the middle of the pack against the pitch. Happ is the second most expensive pitcher on either board and while he has three starts with eight or more strikeouts over his last seven starts, he has five or less in the other four. He has a .298 xwOBA (.251 over the last 30 days), but also has allowed 9.5% Barrels/BBE. It’s a hit or miss proposition with some risk. The Tampa Bay lineup has several names who weren’t even with the team last time Happ faced them, all in the top half of the order. Of the three rookies, only Willy Adames (.334 xwOBA) is above a .300 xwOBA against LHP so far (all have fewer than 30 PAs against southpaws). Happ has a standard split, dominating lefties (.219 wOBA/.250 xwOBA), while being league average against righties (.219 wOBA, .250 xwOBA) since last season. C.J. Cron (123 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has a 182 wRC+ (61.5 Hard%) over the last week and is the biggest threat in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Willy Adames, C.J. Cron Will He Hit Fourth?
Right now, Cameron Maybin is projected to hit fourth for the Marlins tonight, and if that happens, he’s a nice value option. This isn’t about the stats, as when you look closely, his stats aren’t great against lefties. He doesn’t tend to strike out though, and he’s always a threat to run once he gets on base. We don’t have a ton of value options tonight, so getting a hitter in the cleanup spot against a pitcher that struggles with righties is good value here. Suarez has a .369 wOBA with a .218 ISO against right-handed hitters this season.
Pivot Off The Chalk
The Twins have struggled immensely with left-handed pitching this season, and Matt Boyd has been pitching well. He has a .283 wOBA against righties and a .234 wOBA against lefties this season. He continues to have a really good ISO and his strikeout rate is high enough for him to have some upside here. It’s always a little concerning when playing a fly ball pitcher, but I’m not too concerned with that in this matchup. The projected lineup for the Twins only has just one guy with an ISO over .210 this season against lefties. Meanwhile, they have a combined .134 ISO with a .298 wOBA and a 24.9% strikeout rate against lefties.
Curtis Granderson has a 265 wRC+ over the last seven days and can still hammer RHP
The Blue Jays are on the upper middle of the board at 4.36 implied runs on a five game slate. Wilmer Font will start for the Rays with Matt Andriese expected to follow. The issue here is in a similar spot yesterday, Austin Pruitt didn’t even last three innings in the supposed “innings eater” role for the Rays. Font lasted 2.1 innings in his initial start last week. The Blue Jays do have some interesting looking bats at mostly reasonable prices. Curtis Granderson (126 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a 265 wRC+ over the last week. Justin Smoak (117 wRC+, .236 ISO) moves up to the second spot. In fact, among the first eight batters in the lineup, Kevin Pillar (79 wRC+, .138 ISO) is the only one below either a 100 wRC+ or .190 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Wilmer Font, Matt Andriese Value in the Outfield
You shouldn’t have any trouble finding a couple high end bats to pay up for tonight, so I’ll be looking for a couple cheaper options to go heavy on in order to pay up for an ace pitcher tonight. Jesse Winker should get a solid lineup spot tonight in an AL park facing a strike throwing pitcher who allows hard contact. Winker’s plate skills have led to a .372 OBP against righties while his 42% hard hit rate and 23% line drives show that it’s more than just on base ability here.
Upside At A Discount
Assuming you are unable to pay up for two of Cole, Bauer and Berrios, Nick Pivetta stands out as a value on DK/FDRFT as an SP2 in all formats. He’s come back to earth a little bit recently, but not enough to warrant this drastic of a salary drop. He still has a 30.4% stirkeout rate over the past month and has been limiting hard contact all season while piling up strikeouts with strong control. The game log looks a little dicey, but we’ve seen so much upside here, that these skills look clearly underpriced tonight.
Which One Will We Get
When looking at tonight’s slate, Luke Weaver really stands out as an SP2 for cash games on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. I think he’s too cheap on FanDuel, but it’s not a cash game play over there. The projected starting lineup for the Padres have a .134 ISO with a .300 wOBA and a 23.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Weaver’s issue this season has been left-handed power bats, and outside of Hosmer, they don’t have a left-handed power bat in this lineup. Weaver has a 20.3% strikeout rate with a 12.7% hard to soft contact ratio this season. He’s been very hit or miss, but it’s tough to pass on him in this matchup.
First pitcher up this afternoon is the best on the slate
The early game between the Mets and Braves is only available on either all day slates or FanDuel’s early one. Both teams are below four implied runs, though neither is the lowest of the afternoon. Jacob deGrom is easily the best pitcher on the early FanDuel slate. He has five straight starts of at least seven innings and eight strikeouts and in fact, if you remove the start in which he was injured and the short one in which he returned, he’s done that for eight straight starts. It’s not only missing bats and going deep into games where he excels though. His .247 xwOBA, 84.6 mph aEV, 2.7% Barrels/BBE and 25.3% 95+ mph EV are all either first or second on the board for the entire day. He’s also the rare animal who loves to pitch during the day. He has a career ERA of almost exactly two in over 200 innings of day game work. Freddie Freeman (147 wRC+, 225 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) virtually never comes off the board entirely, but the value in paying up for him against deGrom is questionable. Mike Soroka would be an ideal candidate against a cratering Mets’ offense (37 wRC+, 31.1 K% last seven days), except for the fact that this is his first game back from the DL with a shoulder issue. He faced just 17 batters in a AAA tune up. Through three major league starts (one against these Mets), he has a 21.7 K%, 3.68 ERA (3.60 SIERA), but a .365 xwOBA due to 10% Barrels/BBE. Only six of his 10 runs have been earned with a .408 BABIP and 63.6 LOB%. Mets’ bats are cheap on FanDuel this afternoon. Todd Frazier (110 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Brandon Nimmo (162 wRC+, .256 ISO) are most expensive, just a bit above $3K. Kevin Plawekci (126 wRC+, .183 ISO) bats fifth for just $300 above the minimum.
Other tagged players: Mike Soroka, Freddie Freeman, Todd Frazier, Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Plawecki Catch These Skills
Yadier Molina is playable on all sites, but he’s a standout at the catcher position on DK. With Eric Lauer allowing hard hits, line drives and fly balls to righties, the combination of low strikeouts and high hard hits makes Molina a top option in all formats hitting in the middle of a strong lineup.
High Flying Offense
The Cardinals are a top team on this slate, facing a young left-handed pitcher with sketchy control and 42% hard hits allowed to righties this season, in addition to high line drives and fly balls. Jedd Gyorko is a very affordable piece of this lineup. He has the contact skills against lefties, just 13.2% K since last season to be cash game playable, and the power, with a .299 ISO to use in tournaments on his own or in stacks. He’s an affordable 2B on FanDuel and gains value from his positional flexibility on DK.
A High Upside GPP Stack
I always hesitate to recommend the Cardinals as a stack for fear of being labeled a homer, but I have to include them tonight. I love stacking against pitchers with control issues, as that increases the odds of big innings. Eric Lauer currently sports an ugly 12% walk rate this season, a SIERA over 5.00, and a hard contact rate allowed of 41%. Yikes. Those are bad numbers. The Cardinals are a fine team to stack with a high team total here. I would start with Jose Martinez and Tommy Pham, as Martinez is locked in right now and Pham is the best all-around player on the team. From there, Yadier Molina and even Yairo Munoz check in as more affordable options that you can include.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Yadier Molina, Yairo Munoz
He Does Everything
In Joey Votto, we’ve got an elite hitter who makes contact, has patience, hits line drives, has home run power, and hits in the middle of a strong lineup. He is facing a strike throwing pitcher in Jason Hammel who does nothing to limit hard contact and has low strikeout ability. This is the ideal matchup for hard hit balls in play at a a fair price. He’s a top cash game play on all sites, and playable on his own or in stacks in tournaments.
Just How Good is Dylan Covey?
Your stance on the Indians tonight is likely going to come down to how you view Dylan Covey as a pitcher. Is he more like the winless guy with a 7+ ERA from a year ago, or is he more like the guy who has pitched well in his recent starts? I can guarantee that the Indians will be lower owned tonight after getting stymied by Lucas Giolito and James Shields over the last two nights, so this is a perfect spot to take advantage of recency bias. I expect Covey to regress in the second half, and the Indians are always capable of scoring runs in bunches. This is my favorite team stack of the night, and I love this lineup from top to bottom. Let salary be your guide as you choose your stacks.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall, Yonder Alonso