DFS Alerts
Value In The Leadoff Spot
If you’re looking for value, Greg Allen gets the nod to leadoff for the Cleveland Indians at a cheap salary. Allen hasn’t flashed much power, but he does have some speed (three stolen bases this season) and will face Artie Lewicki, who has allowed 42 hits in 29 career innings in the majors. The Indians have one of the highest implied team totals outside of Coors, so Allen makes some sense for salary relief without sacrificing upside.
Still Just Too Cheap
We get a FanDuel value on Curtis Granderson again today, this time facing the 17.3% K rate of Alex Cobb, who has shown no ability to control batted balls against left-handed batters. Against a low strikeout pitcher, Granderson loses some of his risk and is an easy fit in all formats at this salary batting leadoff.
Cheap Exposure To The Must Play Game
With a high end pitcher and a high end bat in your lineup, we’ll need any possible savings we can get on DK/FDRFT while staying on the Coors Field game where possible. Enter Chris Owings, and teammates Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte. Owings has dual position eligibility, giving him a slight boost. He also has a high fly ball lean to offset the one skills of Kyle Freeland. All cheap Diamondbacks righties are in play today.
The Obvious Play
If you can pay up for one batter today, there’s no reason to overthink Paul Goldschmidt in Coors Field against a lefty. If there was any concern over Goldy, it should be gone after 4 HR in two games, but even before this Coors-induced outburst, his numbers against left-handed pitching were still off the charts. For the season he has a .385 ISO and .459 wOBA with 52% hard hits. With Kyle Freeland unable to strike out left-handed batters, there is more limitless upside again today.
Site Specific Value
The Red Sox lefties are a prime play on FanDuel against Reynaldo Lopez. By all means, play Andrew Benintendi if you can afford him, but the savings on Mitch Moreland stands out as the easiest way to get Boston exposure. Lopez has seen a lot of good fortune this season, but with just 12.4% strikeouts to left-handed batters, trouble is in the making. Moreland is striking out at a below average 16.8% clip and hitting the ball hard and in the air, leading to a .328 ISO and .418 wOBA against righties this season. He is too cheap on FD for this matchup in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.
High Risk, High Reward, Cheap Bat
Romero is a good young pitcher, but there is one thing that he’s struggled with greatly since coming into the majors and that is hard contact. On the year, Romero owns a 38.7% hard hit rate and Valbuena on the other side of the plate draws the platoon split and owns a .211 ISO, 50% FB%, and a 35% hard hit rate vs. RHP since 2017. Without Ohtani in this lineup, the Angels have been throwing Valbuena into the middle of this lineup for some lefty power and considering his 3.2k price tag and the fact that he’s hitting in a much better ballpark on the road here I’m going to have a lot of ownership.
Cheap Coors
Keep an eye on Torey Lovullo’s lineup card on Sunday as whoever grabs the better lineup spot between Ahmed/Owings will dictate which guy is the best value play on DK’s main slate. Neither player is very skilled offensively but platoon advantage + Coors + price tag under $4K = almost automatic cash game play. It’s likely your DK cash game lineup will feature both of these guys.
Other tagged players: Chris Owings
A Cheap Bomb
Jones has shown a decent amount of power on the year owning a .222 ISO and 10 HR’s, and has been getting a little unlucky on his batted balls in play (.324 wOBA vs a .444 CXwOBA). He draws a matchup against one of the more extreme fly ball pitchers in Estrada who owns an above 50% FB rate on the year. Jones should be batting 2nd in the lineup and is one of the cheaper bats on the slate with a likely shot at an HR. If you need to save some money to roster one or two of the top arms on the slate, Jones is probably one of your best options.
Little Value
Despite a pretty average matchup, LoMo represents one of the better value plays of the slate. Morrison has a nice stroke when he has the platoon advantage (112 wRC+) and hits for well above average power (.207 ISO). LoMo makes for a better play on FanDuel than on DraftKings as you don’t have to forgo rostering Paul Goldschmidt to play him. With that said, I can see paths to rostering Morrison in cash on DK if no other value opens up, even if you’ll feel crazy passing up on the red hot Goldy.
HR hitter vs a Fly Ball Pitcher
Schoop gets a huge postive matchup today in terms of upside going up against Estrada who on the owns an above average FB% (52.6%) and hard hit rate (32.1%) while owning a below average K rate (17.3%). Schoop on the other hand has not performed well this year, but still owns a decent .180 ISO and .320 wOBA since the beggining of last year vs. RHP and is playing in a hitters ballpark. The price on him of 3.3k is just too small for a 2b on a slate that doesn’t have a whole lot of value at the position. Add in that the Orioles are on the road and Schoop should be batting high in the lineup and we can assume that he should end up with 4 or 5 AB’s this game.
a Good Young Prospect at a Deflated Price
This kid Romero is good. He has several great starts under his belt this year and was priced at 9.2K in this same matchup 1 month ago (where he payed off with 31.3 points). The problem with him is he had one terrible outing against the Royals one week ago and people don’t trust him. On the year, he owns a 21.5% K rate and a 4.35 xFIP. He draws a matchup against the Angels who own several high K, below average bats in the lineup. Romero’s pitch selection and velocity give us not reason to believe that there’s anything wrong with him other than a little bit of rookie nerves. Forget his last blow up and roll with a this talented pitcher at a way reduced price.
Lagging Results
Due to the difference in games included in FD + DK’s main slates (DK includes HOU/TEX + ARI/COL) the cash game strategy varies drastically by site and it’s unlikely you’ll have much overlap in your rosters. Matt Carpenter is the one guy that is a very strong play across the industry and a guy you should be focusing in on in cash games. Carp and the Cardinals take on Anthony DeSclafani at hitter friendly GAB with temps in the mid-to-upper 80’s. Despite lagging results (.329 wOBA), Carpenter has been killing the ball all season (.399 wOBA) and context is in his favor on Sunday.
Flying High Again Today
The Cardinals have a lineup filled with batters who hit the ball hard with solid contact skills. Against Anthony Desclafani, that is a recipe for success. This is just Desclafani’s second start since 2016, and he allowed a ton of hard contact while throwing strikes in his first start. Even at full stregth, he would be the type of pitcher to play guys like Matt Carpenter and Jose Martinez against. Carpenter gets the top of the order lineup spot, adding upside along with his 50% hard hits and 52% fly balls this season against righties.
Average Pitcher in a Plus Matchup
Generally, I’m not real happy about rostering Urena, but this is actually a pretty good price and the way roster construction is working out today, you need to find value at the pitcher position. Urena is priced at a bare bone 6.2k over on DraftKings. On the year he is right about average with a 4.15 xFIP, 19.3% K rate, and a below average hard hit rate with above average GB and BB skills. He gets a matchup against a terrible SD team that is rolling out a lineup with a lot of K upside in a pitchers ball park. All signs in this matchup show Urena as a safe option with a lot of PT/$ upside.
Let Price Dictate
Paxton and Kluber are virtually the same play on Sunday. Paxton and his 30.9% strikeout rate give you the slightly higher strikeout upside against the Rays (23.5 K%, 100 wRC+ vs LHP) but Kluber faces the weaker Tigers offense (21.1 K%, 86 wRC+ vs RHP). Both pitchers have pitcher friendly umps and Paxton gets the park advantage as he’ll throw at the pitcher friendly Trop. So how do we choose which guy to roster? Price. Paxton offers a non-negligible $1,500 discount on FanDuel and a $1,100 discount on DraftKings. Paxton’s price savings makes him my preferred cash option, especially on DraftKings where every dollar matters as it includes high priced Arlington + Coors bats in it’s main slate.