DFS Alerts
Cheap SP2
An old friend of mine, Davis Mattek, said he was going to roster Jose Urena his last game he pitched against St. Louis. I laughed. But then I also took a closer look at Urena’s season so far. Urena didn’t have a good game against the Cards but he has had a good season – he’s the owner of a very solid 3.91 SIERA and a slightly below league average 19.6% strikeout rate. Those things will play when you consider the context of Sunday’s main slate. Things drop off quickly after Kluber/Paxton so it makes sense to look to save at SP2 on multi-SP sites. You’re largely left looking at Marco Estrada or Urena and I give the nod to Urena who gets to face the Padres who own the third highest strikeout rate in the league versus RHP (25.7%), the fifth worst wRC+ (84), and are an NL team (no DH).
Two Aces, Take Your Choice
Corey Kluber and James Paxton are far ahead of the rest of the field today, and playing one of them should be a priority. Kluber has been the more consistent pitcher, and both have upside, and it’s more about the salary savings than anything else in starting with Paxton. He gets a very favorable matchup in Tampa against a projected lineup with a 24.7% K rate against lefties. The fact that the can send eight righties to the plate is not a detriment as Paxton has been a higher strikeout pitcher to righties each of the past two seasons, at 31.3% this season. If salary were no issue, I’d lean slightly towards Kluber in cash games, but the savings on Paxton is a huge help in lineup construction.
Chad Bettis continues to be propped up by a career-low .270 BABIP, despite 35.4% HH% and 88.2 aEV
Bettis comes into Saturday’s matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks following three consecutive blowup home outings at Coors Field, as he has allowed at least five earned runs on each occasion and failed to strike out more than three hitters in all but one of those starts. Bettis had been a candidate for regression all year long prior to this most recent stretch, so it appears that some that regression has finally come to fruition, though it may be far from over with his 4.66 SIERA still more than a half run higher than his 4.06 ERA through 12 appearances this season. The low 16.0% strikeout rate is nothing new for Bettis, as his career mark is just 16.6%, but the elevated 7.5% walk rate certainly is uncharacteristic, especially over last season’s pristine 5.5% walk rate, which has greatly contributed to his rising ERA and SIERA over the last month. Bettis has exhibited some slight reverse splits this season, so a right-handed hitter like Paul Goldschmidt (40.7% HH%, 0.217 ISO, 0.461 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) remains firmly in play for all formats and his projected value shouldn’t be dinged just because he sacrifices the platoon advantage in this matchup. That said, Bettis is still more than attackable from the left-side of the plate as well, which makes Jake Lamb (0.250 ISO, 0.447 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), Daniel Descalso (39.7% HH%, 0.205 ISO, 0.383 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), and David Peralta (40.8% HH%, 0.374 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) the top Dodgers lefties to target. Meanwhile, Jon Jay and Alex Avila (53.3% HH%, 0.580 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) are certainly worthy options to round out a Diamondbacks stack in tournaments, especially Jay with his high 84.9% contact rate and above-average 40.1% hard-hit percentage at the top off the order, despite his other subpar advanced statistics this season, which keep him from being a viable one-off target given his inability to produce substantial upside without the assistance of his teammates more often than not.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso, David Peralta, Jon Jay, Alex Avila, Chad Bettis
Carlos Gonzalez (back) scratched Saturday; Noel Cuevas replaces
Gonzalez has been scratched from the Colorado Rockies original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Saturday’s matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks due to what’s being reported as a back issue. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Noel Cuevas, who will play right field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra, and Ian Desmond all up one batting position. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Rockies order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Matt Koch at home this evening.
As reported by: Thomas Harding via Twitter Start of Saturday's CLE-DET game will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers on Saturday afternoon will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Tigers have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Mike Clevinger not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game should play through with no issues (maybe some light rain) following this initial weather stoppage.
As reported by: the Detroit Tigers via Twitter Start of Saturday's LAA-MIN game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins on Saturday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Twins have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Tyler Skaggs and Kyle Gibson not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, a late postponement cannot be entirely ruled out, even though the game has a good chance of playing through following the initial weather stoppage.
As reported by: Dan Hayes via Twitter Power Upside
Joc Pederson continues to lead off for the Dodgers and he continues to be massively underpriced on FanDuel. Pederson has hit three HRs over his last two games and gets a tremendous power matchup against Anibal Sanchez on Saturday night. Sanchez threw a gem his last game against the Nationals but has struggled mightily with the long ball as his career has progressed, which is not good news when facing a team that owns the league’s fourth highest ISO (.185) versus RHP. The Dodgers are my favorite contrarian stack of the night due to their power upside.
COORS SLATE
There’s Coors Slate’s and then there’s COORS SLATE’S. Saturday night is the latter. Good pitchers struggle in Coors due to the elevation and bad pitchers get destroyed. Matt Koch is the definition of a bad pitcher. Don’t be fooled by his 3.76 ERA. Out of 165 pitchers that have recorded at least 100 batted ball events, Matt Koch allows the second highest barrels/plate appearance (10.8). He allows the eighth highest average exit velocity (90.6 mph). Do everything you can to get Blackmon and other Rockies hitters in your lineup.
Decisions, Decisions
Perhaps the biggest decision you’ll face on multi-SP sites on Saturday night is if you should use extra salary to roster Charlie Morton as your SP1 or if you should use the extra salary to jam in more Coors bats. Hopefully the answer becomes a little clearer as lineups are released and we get a better handle on what type of value the slate offers but my current lean is to run Wood/German and spend on bats. Morton has the best raw projection of the slate but his high price tag is a bit prohibitive. I’ll typically prioritize pitching over hitting but I am ok using Wood (22.6 K%, 3.60 SIERA) in this spot despite the typical short leash Dave Roberts has him on (he has yet to top 96 pitches on the season).
Other tagged players: Alex Wood Slate Context
Saturday’s main slate cash game approach is pretty straight forward: jam Coors. In order to do so you’re going to have to save a little bit on pitching and Domingo German gives you that opportunity in a matchup against an average Mets offense (20.9 K%, 100 wRC+ vs RHP). As an added bonus, German gets the benefit of this game being played at Citi Field and not having to face a DH. German’s price really stands out on FanDuel ($6,700) and is a good SP2 option on DraftKings. While Morton is far and away the best option in terms of raw projection, you can consider German in cash games on FanDuel strictly due to the context of the slate.
Cash Game Staple
Goldschmidt broke out in a big way on Friday night with a pair of HRs and a double. Goldy has 3+ hits in three straight games and he appears to be streaking in the right direction after a slow offensive start to the season. He gets another favorable matchup against Chad Bettis in Coors and should be a staple in your cash game lineups despite the high price tag.
One of the Hottest Hitters in Baseball
Kinsler was terrible for the majority of the season, but over the past 2 weeks this guy has cause fire. Just look at this guys DK game log over the past 9 games: 23, 0, 2, 0, 17, 16, 13, 10, and 32. These numbers are better than pretty much every hitter in the majors and he’s priced in the middle tier at a position that’s hard to fill on this slate. I’m not a big fan of riding out hitters hot streaks, but Kinsler is facing a guy who’s biggest asset is his high K rate and Kinsler only strikes out at a 13.4% clip since the beginning of last season. You know he’s going to be putting the ball in play. You know he’s gonna bat at the top of the order and since they are the road to team with a high implied team total you know there’s a good chance at 5 AB’s. Kinsler is the best pt/$ play at 2nd base plain and simple.
Best Hitter For the Price Tag
I write this guy up way too often, but he is one of the better hitters in the league and he’s always priced like an out of season Halloween costume. On the season, he owns a .246 ISO, .358 wOBA, and a .507CXwOBA vs. RHP. This guy is great vs. RHP and gets a matachup against ross who is only striking out lefties at a 19.6% rate, walking at a 9.8% rate, and giving up 36.4% hard contact to lefties. You are getting Bour at a ridiculous 3.2k price tag and he is cheap around the industry. Use him if you like making money or fade him if you want to only afford lunchables for the rest of the month (p.s. lunchables are a choice for me, I can afford other things, but I just enjoy them way too much).
Hasn't been good, But that shouldn't last long
Look, Sam Travis hasn’t been good this year, looking back to his minor league numbers, but this kid is talented.Travis owned an average .350+ wOBA on average in the minors throughout his entire career and so far in the majors he owns a .383 wOBA vs. LHP in just 47 AB’s. The Red Sox owns a 5.5 implied team total at the time of this writing and so we know that Travis should get 5 AB’s in a hitters ball park in this game. At a 2.7k price tag on DK this spot is just way too juicy to pass up.
Too Cheap to Pass Up
Look, this could end very poorly, but the upside is too great here. Duffy is priced at a ridiculous 4.8k price tag over on DK and they guy has legitimate stuff. Over the course of his career, Duffy owns a 23.7% K rate vs lefties and a 19.6% K rate vs. righties. It’s come down a little bit this year, but over the last few starts Duffy has performed well above his price in 2/3 (-2.8, 14.7, and 25.7 DK points). He draws a matchup against the A’s who can take advantage of Duffy’s 40% hard hit rate, but they are playing in Oakland which is one of the best pitchers park in the US and this Oakland team has a 23.4% K rate in their lineup vs. LHP. This is a high risk high reward spot and its fully worth taking advantage of on this slate.