DFS Alerts
Good Stuff, Bad Numbers
Look, since the beginning of this season Castillo has good numbers. Castillo owns a 3.99 xFIP, 22. K%, 8.9 BB5, and a 36.3% hard hit rate. These numbers have corresponded to a horrid 5.64 ERA which is a full 1.65 higher than his xFIP. If you plan on all this to continue you can happily challenge me to a H2H cause you are wrong and the pitching on this slate is trash. The pricing is way to high on the top pitchers on the slate and Castillo may legitimately own one of the highest upsides on the slate and is priced like the vegetables (gross) that had a best by date a week ago. If you’re looking for some salary relief then you aren’t going to find better talent at a better price than Castillo.
Joc Pederson is cheap leadoff bat who has been on fire recently
While Brandon McCarthy has been pitching well as of late, since changing his pitch mix to rely less on fastballs, Joc Pederson (133 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) may be the affordable leadoff bat players who are paying up for pitching are looking for. He costs just $2.4K on FanDuel and less than $4K on DraftKings and has a 431 wRC+ over the last week (56.3 Hard%). Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .296 ISO) is back in the cleanup spot and has a 244 wRC+ over the last week as well.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Brandon McCarthy
One potential trouble spot among a few with some possibility of rain Friday night
Kevin has updated his forecast for Friday night and while there’s at least some potential for rain in a few spots tonight, he’s really only concerned about one. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can stay updated until lock with Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
RHBs have an xwOBA much higher than their actual wOBA (.303) against Doug Fister since last season
The first five remain the same for the Astros with Carlos Correa still out, but then Houston (5.31 implied runs) sticks a few LHBs in the second half of the order against Doug Fister. Fister traditionally struggles more against LHBs (.347 wOBA, 41.9 Hard%), but xwOBA brings up his mark against RHBs to close the gap to 11 points (.344 vs .333). It would seem every batter outside of Tony Kemp (72 wRC+, .088 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is playable with George Springer (137 wRC+, .227 ISO), Alex Bregman (133 wRC+, .186 ISO) and Jose Altuve (161 wRC+, .183 ISO) top of the line bats at their respective positions. Yulieski Gurriel (113 wRC+, .160 ISO) costs less than $4K in the cleanup spot and should bat with RBI opportunities.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Tony Kemp, Doug Fister Affordable Exposure To A Top Offense
The Arizona lineup is out and we have a couple cheap options for DK/FDRFT, but it’s Ketel Marte that tops the list, hitting 6th, and having 2B/SS eiligibility on DK at just $2,900. He makes strong contact and makes cash game lineup builds quite a bit easier tonight.
Diamondbacks (72 wRC+) have been the only team worse than the Rockies against RHP this year, but Coors
The Diamondbacks (72 wRC+) and Rockies (74 wRC+) have been the two worst offenses in baseball against RHP, yet both are above five implied runs on Colorado. Though the top four Arizona bats (Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Daniel Descalso) all fall between a 100 and 120 wRC+ and a .190 and .215 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year, none of the other four bats are even above a .130 ISO. German Marquez does not have much of a platoon split, but RHBs are actually slightly better against him (.326 xwOBA, 36.9 Hard%). The Diamondbacks only have the one real RHB in the lineup. Jon Jay (101 wRC+) does have some value at a reasonable cost atop the lineup though, as does Ketel Marte (76 wRC+), who has a 298 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% over the last week, for less than $3K on DraftKings only.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Daniel Descalso, Ketel Marte, Jon Jay Only three of the first seven in Colorado lineup have been above average hitters against RHP over the last calendar year
The Vegas run line for the Rockies (5.19) remains above five and near the top spot tonight, but it’s not as high as usual for Coors because they are facing a good pitcher and they have been terrible against RHP. Zack Greinke can be played for a reduced price at Coors tonight. However, there’s a bit of hard contact (10.4% Barrels/BBE) that comes with that 26.6 K%. Greinke has no platoon split. Batters from each side of the plate have a .268 wOBA and 37% hard hit rate against him since last season. Charlie Blackmon (137 wRC+, .277 ISO), Nolan Arenado (113 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Carlos Gonzalez (117 wRC+, .209 ISO) are the only batters among the first seven in the lineup who are above either a 90 wRC+ or a .180 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Zack Greinke Michael Fulmer has exceeded a 50% hard hit rate in four of his last five starts
If players are not paying up for pitching, they might want to consider Cleveland bats. They’re likely to lack high ownership stacks because despite a 4.86 implied run line, there are six teams higher and their facing a “name pitcher” in Michael Fulmer. However, Fulmer has a below average strikeout rate on the season and a 6.66 ERA over the last month with all of his estimators above five. His hard hit rate has been above 50% in four of his last five starts, which has resulted in a .383 xwOBA over that span. Francisco Lindor (122 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (144 wRC+, .219 ISO), Jose Ramirez (169 wRC+, .326 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion (149 wRC+, .294 ISO) will all be difficult to afford for players paying up for arms. LHBs have a .336 xwOBA, 35.6 Hard% and 44.8 GB% against Fulmer since last season.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Fulmer Andrew Cashner's previous platoon issues have disappeared, now everyone hits him well
While Andrew Cashner has generally struggled more with LHBs in the past, this season, batters from either side have exactly a .382 wOBA against him. Since last season, batters from either side are within six points of a .350 xwOBA, though his ground ball rate is 15 points higher against RHBs (52.9%). The Blue Jays have a 4.91 implied run line tonight that’s just below the top tier of teams. As is usually the case, players should be looking at the top half of the lineup and especially the right-handed Teoscar Hernandez (130 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Randal Grichuk (104 wRC+, .291 ISO) does cost less than $3K out of the seventh hole and could help provide a path to high priced pitching.
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Andrew Cashner Upper half of the San Diego order has punished LHP
Caleb Smith pitched well against the Padres last time out (7 IP – 1 R – 4 K) and could be an interesting option tonight as well. San Diego has just a 3.53 implied run line, but they do have some bats in the first half of the order that can rake against LHP. Smith has had a reverse platoon in his short career (RHBs .287 wOBA, LHBs .343 wOBA), but xwOBA closes that gap to 25 points (LHBs .324). That makes each of the first four batters in the San Diego order a bit interesting. Jose Pirela (132 wRC+, .193 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Hunter Renfroe (163 wRC+, .363 ISO) both cost less than $4K on either site. Christian Villaneuva (255 wRC+, .435 xwOBA, .571 ISO) has been an MVP candidate against southpaws. Eric Hosmer (100 wRC+, .169 ISO) is competent against same-handed pitching and has a 70.6 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Caleb Smith, Hunter Renfroe, Jose Pirela, Eric Hosmer Red Sox remain above five implied runs at home now without J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts tonight
As has been the most times this season, the Red Sox have one of the highest Vegas run lines on the board (5.19) at home. Dylan Covey has increased his K% by more than 50% and his SwStr% nearly two full points from a rookie season that he finished with a 2.3 K-BB%. He still has a double digit walk rate through four starts in 2018 though. While the Red Sox haven’t missed a beat without Mookie Betts, they’ll have to continue on tonight without J.D. Martinez. While that takes an elite bat out of play, it also makes Boston stacks more affordable. Andrew Benintendi (132 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) now carries an enormous price tag himself, but is one of the top bats on the board tonight. Batters from either side of the plate still have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 since last season, though that’s been improved too in just 22 innings this year. Mitch Moreland (118 wRC+, .408 xwOBA, .250 ISO) and Eduardo Nunez (115 wRC+, .159 ISO) are the remaining above average hitters against RHP. Xander Bogearts (92 wRC+, .178 ISO) is a top SS play. Brock Holt (77 wRC+, .102 ISO) offers affordable exposure to the top of this lineup with a 157 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt, Mitch Moreland, Dylan Covey Anthony Rendon is a high value bat against a rookie lefty exhibiting platoon issues
Andrew Suarez has an ERA well above his estimators, but one problem with that is that his 7.3 SwStr% does not support a 23.5 K%. Another issue for him tonight is that RHBs have smoked him (.383 wOBA, .398 xwOBA, 45.7 Hard%). Anthony Rendon (151 wRC+, .269 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is a high value play despite a 49 wRC+ over the last week. He costs less than $4K. Trea Turner (110 wRC+, .361 xwOBA, .119 ISO) has improved against southpaws and has a reasonable cost. If considering Bryce Harper (105 wRC+, .170 ISO), LHBs have just a .205 wOBA with a 58.8 GB% against Suarez.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Andrew Suarez Matt Carpenter is facing a pitcher with a >.400 wOBA against LHBs since 2017 in a power friendly park
Left-handed hitters have a .420 wOBA (.416 xwOBA) with a 38.8 Hard% and 34.1 GB% against Matt Harvey since last season. That’s not ideal in one of the most power friendly parks in baseball. Less ideal for daily fantasy players, the Cardinals have very few LHBs who can attack that weakness. Harvey’s had a more formidable .323 wOBA and 50.6 GB% against RHP. None the less, the Cardinals are one of just five teams above five implied runs tonight (5.13). Matt Carpenter (132 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top play tonight, costing around and not above $4K on either site. Dexter Fowler (117 wRC+, .205 ISO) has just a 5 wRC+ over the last week, but with a 61.5 Hard% and 13.3 K%. Tommy Pham (139 wRC+, .191 ISO) is a potent consideration from the right-side, while Jose Martinez (127 wRC+, .165 ISO) saves some salary (under $4K) and has a 274 wRC+ (70.6 Hard%) over the last week.
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez Jhoulys Chacin has issues with LHBs, but Josh Hader has not pitched in six days
Jhoulys Chacin has major issues with LHBs (.340 wOBA, .356 xwOBA, 35.1 Hard% since last season). The Phillies are coming at him with seven from that side tonight and Odubel Herrera (127 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) may seem particularly interesting tonight. It might be important to realize that Chacin has been pitching better over the last month (23 K%, 2.91 FIP) and even more importantly, Josh Hader has not pitched since June 2nd. Further, consider that only Carlos Santana (121 wRC+, .216 ISO) has been above a 60 wRC+ over the last week among the first seven batters in tonight’s lineup.
Other tagged players: Jhoulys Chacin, Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana Potential salary relief with right-handed Miami bats
Players are likely paying up for pitching tonight and that means they’ll have to save money somewhere. The Marlins have just a 3.97 implied run line in a difficult hitting environment, but they’re facing a pitcher who has been torn up by RHBs this year (.421 wOBA, .382 xwOBA, 45.5 Hard%). In addition, the San Diego bullpen has been struggling behind Eric Lauer (4.53 FIP, last 14 days). Starlin Castro (134 wRC+, .152 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Brian Anderson (102 wRC+, .389 xwOBA) are not incredibly cheap at the top of the lineup, but both are $3.6K or less on either site and both have been hitting the ball well (>140 wRC+ and 40 Hard% last seven days). J.T. Realmuto (89 wRC+, .326 xwOBA, .164 ISO) is a more expensive catcher and has not had much success against LHP, but does hit RHP well should Lauer exit early.
Other tagged players: J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson, Eric Lauer