DFS Alerts
Cleveland has the third highest run line on the board (4.89), but offers just two RHBs against a reverse split pitcher (Jake Odorizzi)
Jake Odorizzi is a reverse split, fly ball pitcher (RHBs .331 wOBA, .341 xwOBA, 39.4 Hard%, 31 GB% since 2017) in a park that is actually a bit power friendly towards RHBs in Minnesota. Cleveland has the third highest implied run line on the board (4.89), but the issue is that there are only two RHBs in the lineup and only one of them hits RHP well (Edwin Encarnacion 143 wRC+, .276 ISO last calendar year). Encarnacion is the only batter in the lineup with a significant history against Odorizzi, coming from the AL East. In 35 PAs, he has just a .324 xwOBA with two HRs and an 88.6 mph aEV. While Odorizzi has a 3.34 ERA this season, it’s purely the result of an 88 LOB%. He’s allowed 11 HRs over his last eight starts. While LHBs have just a .301 wOBA against Odorizzi since last season, xwOBA bumps that up 22 points. Jose Ramirez (163 wRC+, .310 ISO) and Michael Brantley (143 wRC+, .214 ISO) punish RHPs, but the park plays a little less friendly to left-handed power.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Jake Odorizzi
Batters have a .429 xwOBA against Drew Pomeranz's curveball this year
The Houston Astros have a 5.27 implied run line that’s the only one within a run of the Yankees (6.02) tonight. Drew Pomeranz has allowed at least three runs in six of seven starts this year and hasn’t gotten an out in the fifth inning in any of the last three. There are eight RHBs in the lineup for Houston tonight and batters from that side have a .321 wOBA and .332 xwOBA against Pomeranz since last season. The curveball has been a problem for him this year (.429 xwOBA, 16.8 Whiff%), which is why he’s thrown the four-seamer (.318 xwOBA, 21.3 Whiff%) almost as often against RHBs this season (39% curve, 36% four-seam). Each of the first three batters for Houston (George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve) exceed a .350 wOBA against curveballs since 2016. The rest of the lineup combined is below .300, though Carlos Correa has a .419 Contact xwOBA on 98 BBEs against the pitch. Of course, those four have just destroyed LHP in general over the last calendar year. All have at least a 135 wRC+ and only Altuve is below a .210 ISO.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Drew Pomeranz Yankees have a board high 6.02 implied run line against Andrew Cashner (.400 xwOBA)
Andrew Cashner has allowed fewer than three runs just once over his last eight starts. His .400 xwOBA is worst on the board and he’s facing the Yankees in Baltimore tonight. They have a board high 6.02 implied run line that only one other team is even within a run of tonight. He throws a sinker 37.5% of the time, more than any other pitch and batters have a .486 wOBA against it this season. It’s not allowed him to generate ground balls against batters from either side of the plate more than 43% of the time this year. The Yankees should light him up tonight. Aaron Judge (180 wRC+, .350 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top overall bat and probably a good value at any cost. Brett Gardner (117 wRC+, .161 ISO) has a lineup leading 253 wRC+ over the last seven days and has a reasonable price tag (just $3.1K on FanDuel). The biggest threat to this Yankee offense appears to be Kevin’s forecast, which was the most concerning one on the board this morning.
Other tagged players: Brett Gardner, Andrew Cashner Red Sox (3.37 implied runs) are without Mookie Betts again against Lance McCullers (26.4 K%)
Lance McCullers faces Boston without Mookie Betts again in a negative run environment in Houston. As a result, the Red Sox have just a 3.73 implied run line. While Boston has a team 122 wRC+ and 18.3 K% vs RHP this year, both board best numbers today, but today’s confirmed lineups does have some strikeouts in the second half of the order (four of the last six bats above a 22 K% vs RHP this year). McCullers costs a reasonable $9K and his 26.4 K% is one of the top marks on the board. His .247 xwOBA at home since last season easily tops today’s board. It’s no secret that he throws a dominant curve (32.9 Whiff%, .288 xwOBA) nearly half the time (43.3%). J.D. Martinez (.332 wOBA, .514 Contact xwOBA) has punished that pitch since 2016 and hits same-handed pitchers well over the last calendar year (162 wRC+, .367 ISO). As a result of the curveball, RHBs have a wOBA over 50 points higher than LHBs since last season.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez Jack Flaherty's slider has dominated this season (47.8 Whiff%, .217 xwOBA)
Jack Flaherty has an excellent slider (47.8 Whiff%, .217 xwOBA this season), which he throws more often to RHBs than any other pitch. As a result, they have just a career .273 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The problem is that his arsenal against LHBs includes four-seamers and sinkers over 60% of the time. Batters exceed a .330 xwOBA with a whiff rate below 20% on both of those pitches. The Pirates have split their lineup with four from each side, but most of their top hitters against RHP are right-handed bats, who comprise each of the first three spots. Flaherty stands a good shot at successfully negotiating this lineup a few times and has a board leading 27.7 K% today, but Josh Bell (108 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Corey Dickerson (98 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Colin Moran (119 wRC+, .163 ISO) have the best shots at roughing him up in the middle of the order.
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell, Colin Moran Opposing batters have a .502 xwOBA (93.3 mph aEV) against Sonny Gray's' four-seam fastball this year
Sonny Gray has just not shown any type of consistency this season. His .369 xwOBA is fourth worst on the board tonight and he hasn’t been able to string together more than two straight quality starts this year. He’s allowed six HRs over his last seven starts and has struck out more than five just three times this year. The four-seam fastball is the pitch he’s thrown the most often and while the whiff rate has actually increased to 22% this season, it has a .502 xwOBA and 93.3 mph aEV overall. Manny Machado (126 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mark Trumbo (79 wRC+ .160 ISO) both hit that pitch and the sinker, which Gray also throws often, above a .380 wOBA since 2016. Gray has struggled with same-handed batters (.322 wOBA/.336 xwOBA) more than lefties (.288 wOBA/.318 xwOBA) since last season, which may not be a good omen against a predominantly right-handed Baltimore lineup, though they have a team 80 wRC+ and 18 K-BB% vs RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Sonny Gray Sean Newcomb throws mostly fastballs and struggles against LHBs
The Washington Nationals have a middle of the board 4.14 implied run line against Sean Newcomb, who has the highest strikeout rate on the board (26.6%) among pitchers with more than five starts tonight. His 2.8% Barrels/BBE and 28.7% 95+ mph aEV are both lowest on the board. His .270 xwOBA is second best. That said, he throws a four-seam fastball over 60% of the time to batters from either side and the first four hitters in the Washington lineup all exceed a .400 wOBA against the pitch since 2016 with 250+ BBE each. Newcomb has faced Washington once this season (his first start) with terrible results (4.1 IP – 5 H – 5 ER – 4 BB – 6 K). Bryce Harper (102 wRC+, .170 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) took him deep in that game and LHBs have actually hit him better than RHBs (.332 wOBA/.364 xwOBA vs .308 wOBA/.294 xwOBA) in his career. Harper and Soto are both interesting plays tonight. Anthony Rendon (149 wRC+, .289 ISO) is too good against LHP to ignore as well.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon, Sean Newcomb Both Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant hit Seth Lugo's most frequently thrown pitches (curveball and sinker) well
There’s not much we know for sure about how the Mets will attack the Cubs tonight, but we know Seth Lugo will start and we know Seth Lugo loves to throw his curveball (32.9% overall). It’s his most frequently thrown pitch against batters from either side of the plate and for good reason (.187 xwOBA). PlateIQ tells us that among those with more than 20 attempts against the pitch since 2016, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber have had the most success against the pitch (.330+ wOBA), though the latter can’t be expected to face him more than once. His second most frequently thrown pitch is a sinker with a .493 xwOBA against, against which both Bryant and Rizzo exceed a .400 wOBA against since 2016. The bottom line is that the top hitters in the Chicago lineup both hit pitchers from either side well and should be in advantageous positions all night. They are more equipped than any other batters to succeed in this spot and are probably worth paying up for without much high priced pitching on this board.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Seth Lugo Matt Carpenter (243 wRC+ last seven days) faces a struggling Trevor Williams (four ERs three of last four starts)
Trevor Williams has the second lowest strikeout rate on the board (17.1%), but generally finds some success as a strong contact manager (85.6 mph aEV is second lowest on the board). However, he’s allowed exactly four runs in six or fewer innings in three of his last four starts with at least one-third of contact categorized as hard hit in all three of those starts. In fact, while he has a sub-.300 wOBA against RHBs since last season, xwOBA pumps that up to .344 with a 34.2% hard hit rate. That said, Matt Carpenter hits RHP pitching extremely well (130 wRC+, .232 ISO last calendar year) and has a 243 wRC+ (55.6 Hard%) overall in the last seven days. He still the top overall bat and value around $4K in this lineup, despite Williams’ sub-.315 wOBA and xwOBA with a 23 Hard% against LHBs since last season.
Other tagged players: Trevor Williams Tanner Roark has gone six innings or more in nine of 10 starts, but Nick Markakis has three HRs (.435 xwOBA, 28 PAs) against him
There are valid reasons for exposure to either side of the matchup pitting Tanner Roark against the Braves. He’s completed six innings or more in nine of 10 starts and that, along with a 22.5 K%, .312 xwOBA, and 86.1 mph aEV are all certainly worth something on a night when very few pitchers stand out and he costs less than $9K. The most compelling arguement against Roark is that the Braves have a fairly consistent sub-11 K-BB% at home, vs RHP and in the last seven days overall. The Braves, or a couple of them at least, also have the most meaningful (largest sample) BvP numbers against him, if that means anything. In a board high 44 PAs against tonight’s pitcher, according to Statcast, Freddie Freeman (139 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a .377 xwOBA (four doubles, no HRs). Nick Markakis (107 wRC+, .123 ISO) has a board high three HRs against tonight’s pitcher with a .435 xwOBA (89.4 mph aEV) in 35 PAs. It’s tough to find many better overall First Base options than Freeman tonight.
Other tagged players: Nick Markakis, Freddie Freeman Daily Bullpen Alert: Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Marlins, and Red Sox bullpens could all be in line for extended work
There are several areas of interest concerning bullpens tonight. Seth Lugo makes his first start of the season for the Mets. He has a few three inning stints, but no more than 48 pitches in any outing this year and has thrown 30-32 twice in the last six days. The Mets pen is in shambles and in flux over the last few days with new comings and goings from the minors every day. Clayton Kershaw is fresh off a month on the DL without a minor league rehab start. The Dodger pen has a 2.45 FIP and 19.5 K-BB% that are top six in baseball over the last 14 days. Drew Pomeranz (in Houston), Wei-Yin Chen (in San Diego) and Sonny Gray (vs Baltimore) are the three starters averaging fewer than five innings this season. The Boston pen (3.26 FIP, 17.5 K-BB%) is one of the best in baseball, but the damage may already be done by that point and it could be the lower end the Astros are facing. The Yankee pen (3.15 FIP, 22.5 K-BB%) is probably the best in baseball, though Baltimore bats are unlikely to be high on anyone’s radar anyway. The Miami bullpen has a 4.49 FIP and 10.5 K-BB% this season and a 5.82 FIP with a -2.8 K-BB% over the last 14 days. This may be a rare occasion worth targeting San Diego bats, some who are proficient against LHP.
This Stack will be Paying Large Dividends Tonight
The Yankees are ranked second in team wOBA and second in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They draw a favorable matchup against Andrew Cashner and they get to face him in a ballpark that favors right-handed power. On the season, Cashner has allowed a .374 xwOBA to lefties and a .426 xwOBA to righties. A full Yankees’ stack is viable here and you can construct it in a number of ways. Aaron Judge currently boasts a .438 xwOBA and a .319 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Finally a Spot to Stack the 'Stros
The Astros are right there with the Yankees as my favorite stack of the slate and they will likely have lower ownership. Drew Pomeranz is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and he has one of the highest walk rates of any starter in baseball. On the season, he has allowed a .380 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to righties, which plays right into the hands of the Astros’ right-handed heavy lineup. Jose Altuve currently boasts a .401 xwOBA against southpaws this season.
Great Matchup, Now it's Time to Execute
Quintana got off to a shaky start this season, but has turned it around over the last month of play. In his last two outings, he has a strikeout rate of 29% and he’s done a much better job of limiting hard contact. You’ll quickly see how thin pitching is tonight and many will land on Quintana as their SP1. He is playing in a pitcher’s park in New York and he draws a favorable matchup against the Mets, whose projected lineup has a .275 xwOBA and a 33% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. We can’t ask for a better matchup for Quintana.
Best Pitcher Not-Named Clayton Kershaw
Nola is the most talented pitcher to take the mound tonight, but he’s pitching on the road against a talented Dodgers’ offense. Given the matchup, he’s far from an auto-play, even though he owns a 3.38 SIERA and a 25% strikeout rate on the season. Nola keeps the ball on the ground and he generates a lot of soft and medium contact. He has all of the tools to pitch well here, even though the Dodgers have hit right-handed pitching well this season. With pitching being so thin tonight, he’s the safest of the expensive options.