DFS Alerts
The Skills Look Real
The pitching is incredibly tightly bunched tonight. I see seven pitchers that could make a case for being the top arm of the slate, and with that in mind, I will be spreading out in tournaments. But, though it’s small sample size with five career starts, the top skills here belong to Walker Buehler with a 30.4% strikeout rate and 53.7% ground balls, both the highest marks of anyone going tonight, and a 3.02 SIERA that is the lowest mark on the slate. He gets a nice home matchup against a Rockies team with a lack of power on the road against righties. Buehler is my top points per dollar play on DK/FDRFT, and one of the few cash game options on FD.
All signs point to Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler faces a Rockies team that has the current lowest implied team total and dropping paired with a Dodger moneyline on the rise. Buehler himself leads the slate with a HR/9 of .333, a SO/9 of 11.33, and a respectable WHIP of 1.148. Buehler has been returning value on 80% of his starts this season with a avg expected points/actual of +5.20. Walker struggled his last outing versus Miami, not hitting value for the first time this year. Hopefully this may lower his ownership a tad as people may expect some regression, but as of now Walker is projected to be the highest owned pitcher on the slate. At his price tag compared with the options above him, I like Buehler as not only cash but a GPP play as well.
Aaron Nola faces four Cardinals LHB that have combined for a 0.138 ISO and 0.277 wOBA versus RHP
With each passing start, Aaron Nola continues to cement himself as a bonafide ace starting pitcher in Major League Baseball, and he will look to build upon his most recent dominant stretch, where he’s surrendered just two earned runs in 20.1 innings over his last three outings, in a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals this afternoon. With Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Strasburg also taking the mound today, Nola may get overlooked by daily fantasy players, but he simply shouldn’t be given his elite batted ball and run prevention skill set. Yes, Nola doesn’t have the strikeout upside of most other high-end starting pitchers, but he still sports a more than respectable 23.0% strikeout rate and an 11.7% swinging strike rate that should lead to some positive regression in the punchout department, especially when examining the 26.6% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging strike rate Nola posted during the full 2017 season. Nola will more than likely always be slightly less effective against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters, but he’s definitely made significant strides in that facet of his game, as he’s limited lefties to just a 16.6% hard-hit percentage this year, despite owning a 13.5% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate against them. However, Nola more than makes up for those middling statistics with an otherworldly 34.0% strikeout rate and 1.9% walk rate versus righties. Working even more in Nola’s favor on Sunday is the fact that this Cardinals squad is significantly depleted with Paul DeJong and Yadier Molina sidelined with their respective injuries, and the lefties that remain in the Cardinals lineup, like Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler, continue to struggle mightily at the plate. So, with that, it’s easy to see why Nola sets up well as a pivot away from Syndergaard and Strasburg in tournaments on FanDuel, though given their manageable price tags, an interesting strategy could be to pair Nola and Syndergaard together on DraftKings, especially if one finds themselves unsmitten by any potential value options at the starting pitching position this afternoon.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ
Wei-Yin Chen has a -10.9% K-BB% and 8.83 xFIP versus RHB through four starts
Chen is set to make his fifth start since being activated from the disabled list in late-April, and he’s generally been pretty atrocious to begin his 2018 campaign, as evidenced by the 14 earned runs surrendered in just 16.2 innings pitched and the inability to make it past the fifth inning in nearly all of his aforementioned outings. Chen has been absolutely shelled in two of those starts, and it is currently reflected in his 6.79 SIERA and 7.34 xFIP, numbers that appear to be well deserved considering he has been relatively on par with his career averages in a .250 BABIP and 75.2% left-on-base-percentage thus far. That said, a large majority of his troubles are stemming from some control issues (13.9% BB%) that have led to him walking more batters than he’s struck out to this point in the season, and on top of that, both right-handed and left-handed hitters have been creating hard contact at least 37.5% of the time, which becomes a recipe for disaster when combined with a 59.3% fly ball rate and abysmal 11.4% strikeout rate. The lack of command to batters on both sides of the plate makes this Atlanta Braves offense an intriguing one to target in all formats, and Vegas has taken notice with the Braves checking in at the second-highest implied run total on Sunday’s entire main slate. Ozzie Albies (38.8% HH%, 0.314 ISO, 0.427 xwOBA vs LHP in 2017/18) is the obvious top option of any Atlanta hitter given his ridiculous splits against left-handed pitching to this point in his career, but he’s closely followed by Freddie Freeman (38.1% HH%, 0.258 ISO, 0.469 xwOBA vs LHP in 2017/18), who is consistently overlooked by the masses when facing off with a southpaw, despite his own impressive numbers against lefties the last two seasons. Then, just a tier below, Ronald Acuna (40.0% HH%, 0.241 ISO, 0.471 xwOBA vs LHP), Tyler Flowers (0.453 xwOBA vs LHP in 2017/18), and Johan Camargo (0.234 ISO, 0.436 xwOBA vs LHP in 2017/18) are all perfectly fine options as members of a stack or as one-offs in large-field tournament formats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Tyler Flowers, Johan Camargo, Wei-Yin Chen Game stacking again
I have game stacked this one every day and I’m going back to the well one more time.. Minor is an OK (at best) lefty facing a team in the White Sox that has a ton of power vs lefties. Reynaldo Lopez has talent but is still inconsistent and behind both of these pitchers we have 2 of the worst bullpens in baseball. As we have seen this game should have decent ownership so if you want to go elsewhere please do so but I think you will want some exposure to this game even if you aren’t stacking. My favorite plays in this spot are Abreu, Davidson, Anderson, Mazarra, Gallo and Choo and you can bet you will find them spread throughout my lineups.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar, Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Yoan Moncada, Nomar Mazara
A Fine Value Option
If you are looking for a value play today, Jose Pirela stands out as a solid option for me. His price tag is dirt cheap on every single site, as he is one of the cheapest hitters you will find on the board. He has been hitting in the cleanup spot for the Padres of late, and while that seems odd for a guy who has not hit a single home run this season, I’ll gladly take the RBI opportunities against a mediocre pitcher. It’s nothing sexy, but Pirela is a fine one-off play if you are trying to fit some studs into your lineup, especially on the mound, today.
Locked In and Thriving
Jose Abreu is getting locked in right now, and I am ready to ride the wave, even though the rest of his team isn’t that good. He is the current owner of a ten game hitting streak that includes six multi-hit games. He also has three doubles and a home run over the last two games. He gets to face a mediocre LHP in Mike Minor today, and Abreu is a solid option in all DFS game formats this afternoon. Minor has allowed a .393 wOBA and 41% hard contact rate to RHBs this year. While that is likely where my White Sox exposure would end in cash games, I don’t mind stacking them up in GPP formats.
Bombs Away
The Yankees teed off against a struggling lefty in Danny Duffy last night, and we could certainly see an encore against the young Skoglund, who has allowed hard contact at a massive 44% clip this season. That’s a hefty number, though Skoglund has done better at generating ground balls of late. I’m not convinced that he will be able to continue that trend in the long-term, and all the Yankees’ power hitters are capable of lifting the ball and hitting it hard any time they step to the plate. Giancarlo Stanton is arguably the top overall hitter on today’s slate given his ridiculous career splits against left-handed batters, and Aaron Judge is right up there as well. I would be hard pressed to leave Stanton off a cash game lineup today.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge A Decent Price on a Top Ace
Syndergaard’s overall profile is strikingly similar to what we see with Strasburg, as he owns a 3.14 ERA, 3.06 SIERA, and 2.94 xFIP. His walk rate is identical to Strasburg at around 5%, and his strikeout rate is in elite-level territory at 28%. He actually has done a great job at limiting hard contact this year, and his mark of just under 25% places him fifth best among all qualified major league starters. He also draws a great matchup against a Diamondbacks team that quietly ranks third worst in the major leagues in team wOBA this season. Assuming the weather holds off, you can make a case for Syndergaard over Strasburg even without considering salary. When you throw in the massive discount on DK/FDRAFT, the decision is almost a no-brainer.
Don't Forget About This Ace
He feels like the “third wheel” of the aces, but I absolutely love Aaron Nola today. It pains me to say that since he is facing off against the Cardinals today, but I have to put my bias aside when it comes to analyzing DFS contests. The St. Louis lineup is very much depleted right now without Paul DeJong and Yadier Molina, and guys like Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler simply aren’t hitting. Nola has taken another step forward in 2018, and he has been effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. He will always struggle a little more against LHBs, but he has held lefties to a low .266 wOBA so far this year while maintaining elite status against righties. His swinging strike rate is on the rise for the fourth straight year and now sits at 11.7% this year. Lastly, his hard contact rate allowed is just 22.3% (second best among qualified starters), and he is generating more soft contact than hard contact. That is something you almost never see in this day and age. Nola is a stand out option today
Daniel Mengden a Solid Value at SP?
Daniel Mengden may not be a name you get excited about rostering for DFS purposes, but he has been a surprisingly consistent source of value so far this season. In his last three starts against BOS, HOU, and BAL (not the easiest pitching matchups) he has managed at least 15 DK points in each, and even picked up a win at Fenway Park in his last outing in the process. Mengden has had success by not issuing free passes – he has faced 92 LH hitters this year and is yet to walk a single one. Today he faces a Blue Jays team that has a 24.6% K-rate, which may raise his floor as well. As value pitching is going to be important on a slate with so many high priced bats in great spots, Mengden may be a sneaky but solid source of value to build around.
Trust the Sun
Acuna is a tad expensive on FanDuel but is priced behind 14 other OF’s on DraftKings where he’s only $4,300. This is a great matchup for the Braves as a whole (5.3 implied run total) as they square off against veteran lefty Wei-Yin Chen at hitter friendly SunTrust Park. Chen is almost allowing an earned run per inning over four starts this year (14 ER over 16 IP) and perhaps more importantly has given up six HRs already this year. The Braves make for one of the top stacks of the slate and Acuna makes for an excellent cash game option, especially at his $4,300 tag on DK.
Dream Matchup, Upside Capped?
Every once and a while I have to remind myself just how much power Schwarber has against right handed pitching (.275 ISO). This is pretty much a dream matchup for Schwarber against Tyler Mahle in power friendly GAB. The only real concern I have for Schwarber here is that his upside may be capped – the Reds showed yesterday they are completely fine pitching around Schwarber as he drew four walks in Game 1 of yesterday’s double header.
Cubs Lefties in a Great Spot Against Mahle
Tyler Mahle has had some solid starts to begin his major league career this season, which may mask the fact that he has been so terrible against lefties. Thus far Mahle has not only allowed a .415 wOBA to hitters from the left side, but is walking LH hitters at a 13.5% clip. He also is only generating 7.8% soft contact against lefties, which explains the .573 SLG% LH hitters have against him. An outing in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark against a Cubs team with strong LH bats could get ugly quick – Rizzo, Schwarber, and the red-hot Ian Happ all profile as great options today.
Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ Pitcher That Could Get You Any Bat You Want
I’m going to start this off by saying I don’t like a lot of cheap pitchers but if you force me to pick one I will go all the way to the bottom to Joe Biagini. The case for him is simple he costs $4000 on DK and $5500 on FD. I like Flaherty more than Biagini but with expensive offenses like the Cubs, Braves, Red Sox and Yankees, if you want to double stack them you are going to need a cheap pitcher. The A’s also strikeout 28% of the time against right handed pitchers this season. I don’t love this play but if you love the bats, Biagini can help you unlock them.
