DFS Alerts
Harder Than Average
Third base is a weak position on Sunday and sometimes when a position is weak it just makes sense to take the player from the best offensive team in the League. That’s what Devers represents for Sunday’s main slate – a cost friendly option on a team with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate. It appears Devers has been a bit unlucky so far this year as he is hitting the ball harder than league average (40.5 Hard% vs 34.9 Hard%) but only has a .297 wOBA to show for it. Unsurprisingly his hard contact has led to a relatively wide margin between his .297 wOBA and .334 xWOBA. I expect Devers to be presented with some high leverage at bats (read: RBI opportunities) which is honestly all you can really ask for at his price tag.
Value Fluctuation
As I mentioned in the Nola blurb, the site’s pricing sort of created a natural hedging situation for cash games on Sunday. Strasburg projects slightly better than the other high end SP options but is priced significantly higher on DK, making him more of a backup cash game plan if it looks like there is going to be some weather issues in NY for Syndergaard. Strasburg is the top cash option on FD but there are some concerns surrounding him: good hitting weather + better Dodgers lineup. Due to injuries the Dodgers have had to play around with their lineup a bit and it seems like they have found a way to jam as many left handed bats into the lineup as possible when facing RHP – play Bellinger in CF. This allows the Dodgers to play Grandal, Bellinger, Muncy + Joc together which is a much more difficult core than they were running out against righties earlier this season. Long story short, keep an eye on the Dodgers lineup as Strasburg’s value will fluctuate depending on how many strong lefty hitters the Dodgers jam in.
Cheap Tournament Pitcher To Help Fit In The Bats
Flaherty has a lot of things going his way today. Sure the Phillies are not an ideal offense to go against but they do strikeout 24.1% of the time against righties and get a park downgrade to hitters. On top of that Flaherty has an extreme pitchers ump which could help him get a couple calls here and there. I don’t love a lot of cheap pitching today but I think Flaherty is a great tournament play at this price.
Natural Hedge
The list of pitchers with a better xWOBA than Nola (.261): Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom. Aaron Nola is #good. High priced SP is a bit of a puzzle for Sunday’s main slate with Strasburg, Nola, and Syndergaard all projecting similarly. Strasburg seems to be the best raw option of the three but I tend to balk at his $13K+ price tag on DraftKings. While the $900 difference between Strasburg + Nola on FD is negligible, the $2,600 price gap on DK forces your hand a bit. The pricing of the pitchers essentially makes this a natural hedge if playing both sites: on FD play Strasburg. On DK pair Nola + Syndergaard (much better approach than playing Strasburg with a ~ $7.6K option).
Hop On Board While He's Still Cheap
Conforto’s price is going to rise soon. He got off to a bad start due to injury and lack of spring training. He has boosted his batting average .040 in his last ten games and three home runs in his last eight games. He gets to face Clay Bucholtz who is pitching his first start since injury and was a gas can when he got hurt. I think Conforto is a great cheap power bat that we can take advantage of on this slate.
Leadoff Value At A Tough Position
Shortstop isn’t the sexiest position to roster players,so when I have a chance to play a value play I do my best to play them. I expect Anderson to hit first in the lineup for a red hot White Sox offense. Minor may not be a pitcher that we have target all year but he’s allowing a .213 ISO and a .330 wOBA against right handed hitters this year. He will also be hitting in front of Jose Abreu who should easily knock him in for easy points.
Still Underpriced
Again I don’t know why but Shin-Soo Choo is still too cheap on FanDuel and DraftKings. He gets a matchup against Lopez who is giving up 53% fly balls to lefties along with a .247 ISO and .360 wOBA. Choo also is part of one of my favorite offenses to target for cheap and is ranked in the top 20 in PIQ rating amongst hitters on today’s slate.
Start of Saturday's ARI-NYM game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets on Saturday night will be delayed due to rain. The Mets have already announced that first pitch is tentatively scheduled for 7:45 pm EST, so this initial weather delay is not expected to become a lengthy one. The late start is better news for the prospects of the starting pitchers like Patrick Corbin not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game should be safe to play through once the early, light precipitation clears from the area.
As reported by: Steve Gilbert via Twitter
The Royals have just two batters with an ISO north 0.139 versus RHP since 2017
Severino rolls into his start against the Kansas City Royals on Saturday night coming off of yet another superb outing where he limited the Oakland Athletics to just one earned run and struck out seven in just six innings of work. In fact, Severino has been so on point thus far in the 2018 campaign that he’s allowed three earned runs or more on just two occasions through his first nine starts. These stretches of dominance aren’t anything out of the ordinary for Severino, as he’s now accumulated more than a calendar year’s worth of data that continues to back up the impressive results, and he enters tonight’s contest with an elite 2.90 SIERA, 2.82 xFIP, 30.8% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate, 12.6% swinging strike rate, 48.6% ground ball rate, and 28.9% hard-hit percentage. In other words, these numbers essentially combine to form the perfect pitching profile of starting pitcher in daily fantasy formats, making Severino an extremely intriguing tournament target on a slate that features other bonafide aces like Max Scherzer and James Paxton the could overshadow him from an ownership perspective. Severino also draws an unimposing matchup against a Royals squad that 23rd in team wOBA and 24th in runs scored, creating a nearly ideal run prevention spot on the road at Kauffman Stadium, a park that tends to benefit pitchers more often than not over the course of a full season. The one concern with Severino in this matchup is that Royals strike out the least of any team in Major League Baseball against right-handed pitching, pacing the way with a lowly 16.3% strikeout rate as a team. As briefly mentioned, these retractors may be just enough to force daily fantasy players to side with Scherzer or Paxton in most formats, which sets up Severino as a potential leverage option in tournaments to pivot away from Paxton or pay down from Scherzer in a spot where Severino could easily overcome his perceived low-upside matchup to lead the way in raw pitching fantasy points on Saturday’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs An Ace Against A Team That Will Likely Rest Key Bats
It’s difficult to put into words how good Scherzer has been this season. He’s allowed only 11 earned runs over 58.1 IP so far this season (9 starts) and has an absolutely insane 40.4% strikeout rate. Scherzer will be pitching the second game of a double-header which could add a few favorable cards to his already stacked deck: 1) Longer leash. This is fairly insignificant with someone like Scherzer who already has a long leash but it’s worth mentioning. Typically managers look for their starters to eat up more innings during double headers so as to not tax their bullpen for the rest of the series. This is especially true if the bullpen is heavily used in Game 1. 2) Watered down lineup. Keep an eye on lineups as they come out but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers totally punted their Game 2 lineup, essentially forfeiting the game in order to prepare their normal starters for Sunday. For example, it’s likely the Dodgers play one of their best hitters in Yasmani Grandal in Game 1 and rest him Game 2.
Lets go right back to the stacks that treated us well Friday
I am fully game stacking the Ranger and White Sox as I did on Friday. Giolito is terrible and Jurado has some talent and a likely decent future but he is still just a solid double A pitcher at this point.. Both of these teams have terrible and likely somewhat worn out bullpens giving the hitters massive upside in what could be the shootout of the day. I like these entire lineups 1 through 8 but my favorites are Gallo, Choo, Mazara, Davidson, Abreu and Moncada. Whether stacking this game or not I seriously think you need some exposure here even on this 11 game slate.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar, Delino DeShields, Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Daniel Palka, Robinson Chirinos, Welington Castillo
The most underrated pitcher in baseball
I don’t think people appreciate just how good James Paxton really is.. Especially at home. Last year Paxton had a 2.45 era at Safeco while striking out 90 in 77 innings. Today he will get a rematch against a right handed heavy Tigers team that gave him some trouble his last time out but I am not concerned. That was an afternoon game in Detroit and this Tigers team is a completely different animal during the day at home. They will send out a slew of righties today in Seattle but I actually think that sets up better for Paxton. He averages almost 2 more k’s per 9 vs righties as opposed to lefties and these righties are pretty awful. Paxton tends to go underowned in general and at this price may get overlooked. He could be 13k and would still be my favorite pitcher on the slate.
Too Cheap Coming Back From Injury
Coming back from injury, Cozart is too cheap across the DFS industry. He has a great matchup against Sergio Romo, who will pitch a couple of innings before turning it over to Ryan Yarbrough in a game that will likely see Tampa going to their pen early. The Angels are projected for nearly five runs making this a great spot to target Cozart who will likely be batting first. He’s a great play for cash games and has some tournament upside.
Jorge Alfaro (knee) scratched Saturday; Andrew Knapp replaces
Alfaro has been scratched from the Philadelphia Phillies original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals due to a knee issue. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Andrew Knapp, who will handle the catching duties and slot into the eighth in the order, which will bump Maikel Franco up two spots to fifth and Scott Kingery up one spot to seventh, respectively. There obviously hasn’t been any drastic changes to this Phillies lineup, especially at the top, but still be sure to check out the updated batting order on the Starting Lineups page as Philadelphia faces off against right-hander John Gant this afternoon.
As reported by: Matt Breen via Twitter Rain Can't Keep Him Off the Mound Forever
Mad Max is clearly the top pitcher on a night full of aces. Thanks to rain postponements for several days in a row, it will have been over a week since Max Scherzer made a start when he finally takes the mound tonight for the Nationals. While that is a bit of a concern, expect the Nationals to let their workhorse pitch deep into the game in the second game of a double-header. His numbers are absurd this season with an overall strikeout rate over 40%, a 17.6% swinging strike rate, and a SIERA barely over 2.00. Those are video game-like results. It should be obvious at this point, but it’s imperative to try to jam this guy into your lineups with the way he is pitching right now. The Dodgers are not as imposing of a matchup as we would expect, as they have disappointed DFS players time and again this year; they rank just 22nd in team wOBA and 23rd in team ISO this season.
