DFS Alerts
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Andrew Heaney and Sean Newcomb all exceed a 28 K% and are in high K upside spots tonight
Wednesday night’s board is loaded with upside. There are 16 pitchers and here are the ones below a 10 SwStr%: Aaron Nola (9.1%) and Dallas Keuchel (8.1%). Both of those pitchers have a sub-.300 xwOBA. Neither Wade Miley or Brett Anderson have thrown a pitch in the majors this season or we’d expect them to be on this list as well, but there are very few unusable arms on this slate and potentially even fewer pitchers who players will want to attack. Six pitchers on tonight’s slate exceed a 28 K%, a club of which Stephen Strasburg (26.9 K%) is not a member of, but he, along with Jacob deGrom (31 K%) are the highest priced pitchers on the board and will probably get the most attention, but there’s also James Paxton (31.2 K%) and Luis Severino (29.2 K%) near the top of the board with Hyun-Jin Ryu (31.2 K%), Andrew Heaney (34.4 K%) and Sean Newcomb (28.1 K%) following. Heaney, Newcomb and Ryu are all facing offenses who have a strikeout rate between 25 to 26% against left-handed pitchers (which all three are) this year. Then there’s Jose Urena (10.2 SwStr%, 18.4 K%), who costs just $4.1K on DraftKings and is facing a Phillies offense with a 26.6 K% vs RHP this year. While top of the board pitchers are fine tonight, there’s an argument to be made for paying down for pitching tonight.
Other tagged players: Andrew Heaney, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Aaron Nola, Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Dallas Keuchel, Wade Miley, Brett Anderson, Jose Urena
One of my Favorites DFS Pastimes
I’ve been playing DFS for many years. While a lot has changed, one thing has remained constant — my love for stacking against Wade Miley. He looked good in the spring before getting injured, but I’m not putting much stock into it. He’s a low strikeout pitcher with a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate. Last season he gave up a .364 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Eugenio Suarez should be batting fifth tonight and he has a great track record against southpaws.
Betting on Splits vs. Southpaws
It’s hard to know what kind of form Brett Anderson is going to show tonight, because we haven’t seen much of him recently. Even over the last few years, he’s been very hit or miss. I’m willing to bet on the talent of Nelson Cruz in this matchup, as he boasts a .452 xwOBA and a 45% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching.
Eating the Chalk at First Base
Matt Adams is coming off of a big outing on Tuesday night, he draws one of the best matchups of the slate, and he’s underpriced across the industry. This will all lead to very high ownership. While baseball is filled with variance, it’s hard not to eat the chalk here. Over the last two seasons, Ivan Nova has allowed a .390 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. You can play Adams by himself or pair him up with Bryce Harper.
No Choice but to Take a Risk at SP2 Tonight
There are only eight games on the schedule tonight and it’s not the strongest slate for pitching. There are a couple of obvious plays up top, but it’s hard to pair them on multi-pitcher sites. Andrew Heaney offers salary cap relief and despite a high ERA, his advanced numbers look promising. He currently owns a 2.65 SIERA with a 34% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which bodes well in a ballpark that limits home run production. A matchup against the Orioles is decent, as their projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 25% against southpaws.
Slight Edge Above the other Pitchers
Strasburg has tremendous numbers at home throughout his career and he’s off to a solid start this season, posting a 3.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He’s one of the best at inducing soft contact and he is facing a Pirates’ lineup that has little to no firepower against right-handed pitching. Even though Pittsburgh is a low-strikeout offense, I don’t factor the matchup in as much when it comes to elite arms like Strasburg.
The wind is blowing out at Wrigley for the third day in a row with the Cubs facing a more fly ball prone pitcher today
The Cubs will try it for a third straight day. Their 6.15 implied run line is second best on the afternoon slate with the wind blowing out again. There were a few HRs last night, but not much else as Jon Gray did a somewhat predictable thing and used his Coors approach to generate ground balls under such averse conditions. Tyler Anderson generated a 50.9 GB% in his rookie season, but it dropped last year and is down to 22.9% this year. Right-handed batters have a .325 xwOBA (.354 actual) against him since last season. Might this be the day the Cubs get it done? Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Willson Contreras all have an ISO just above .230 against LHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Javier Baez, Willson Contreras Lucas Giolito has struck out more than he's walked in just one start
The St Louis Cardinals have a 5.71 implied run line against Lucas Giolito, who has just once struck out more batters than he’s walked in a start this season and even then just by one. Giolito’s contact isn’t terrible, but the walks have his .385 xwOBA behind just Marcus Stroman on this slate and the Cardinals can take advantage of a pitcher who struggles to throw strikes. Matt Carpenter (128 wRC+, .229 ISO) hit the walk off last night and only Yadier Molina is below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last season among those in today’s lineup. Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna and Paul DeJong join Carpenter with an ISO of .199 or better against RHP since 2017.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong, Lucas Giolito Carlos Martinez has just a 9.0 SwStr% but has gone at least six innings in every start since his first
Carlos Martinez has gone at least six innings in every start since his first of the season with double digit strikeouts twice. He won’t always pile up the Ks and his 9.0 SwStr% is a bit frustrating, but he still keeps the ball on the ground (57.8%). He continues to struggle with the strike zone against left-handed hitters (career double digit walk rate), but the White Sox don’t have a lot of guys who can hurt him from that side. Only Yoan Moncado (128 wRC+, .383 xwOBA, .252 ISO vs RHP) is above a .325 xwOBA among today’s lefties for Chicago. Martinez is the second most expensive pitcher on the slate and certainly isn’t the safest, but he has the upside to push lineups over the top.
Other tagged players: Yoan Moncada Marcus Stroman hasn't completed six innings or allowed fewer than four runs this season
Marcus Stroman allowed four of the six runs in his last start right away, with a Joey Gallo bomb doing a large part of the damage. He’s now allowed at least four runs without completing six innings in all five of his starts. While the ground ball rate remains beyond elite (65%), he hasn’t struck out more than five since his first start and carries a .398 xwOBA with the worst aEV (94.2 mph) and 95+ mph EV (59.7%) on the board. Stroman has just a 15 point difference in his platoon split by xwOBA since last season, keeping LHBs on the ground more often (65.6%) with 19 of his 24 home runs surrendered to RHBs (59.4 GB%). The Twins are only coming at him with two of those and one with power. Brian Dozier (106 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP since 2017) certainly makes some sense, but this Minnesota lineup is loaded with LHBs who have had success against RHP since last season too. Joe Mauer, Logan Morrison, Eddie Rosario, and Max Kepler are all a little bit above a 120 wRC+ with the platoon advantage, while Morrison, Rosario, Kepler and Eduardo Escobar all exceed a .215 ISO, the former two above .260. If Stroman is going to keep walking batters (12.3% this season, but a season low one in his last start) and generating enormously hard contact, this Minnesota lineup has the ability to make him pay.
Other tagged players: Marcus Stroman, Joe Mauer, Logan Morrison, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Eduardo Escobar Fernando Romero is a decently regarded prospect with some control issues
Fernando Romero has a 70 grade fastball and 50 overall Future Grade by Fangraphs. The 23 year-old was most recently ranked as the fourth best prospect in the Minnesota system by that publication, but has struggled with control at the higher levels of the minors starting last season, including an 11.5 BB% in just 21 innings at AAA this season (23 K%). A ground ball rate above 50% has allowed him to keep the ball in the park, but a Toronto lineup full of professional hitters should make him work, though there may be some upside if players wanted to pair him with an extremely expensive Kluber for just $4.7K on DraftKings. Consider hedging with some exposure to Curtis Granderson (122 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since 2017), Teoscar Hernandez (179 wRC+, .387 ISO), Justin Smoak (120 wRC+, .259 ISO) and Yangervis Solarte (111 wRC+, .189 ISO) as an affordable stack in the top half of the lineup should his control abandon him in his major league debut.
Other tagged players: Fernando Rodney, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte Blake Snell has 24 strikeouts and just one walk over his last three starts
Blake Snell has at least pitched into the seventh inning in three straight starts with 24 strikeouts and just one walk (75 batters faced), allowing more than two runs in just one start this year. He has a 29.9 K% and 13.8 SwStr% on the season with a .287 xwOBA and just 25% of his contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. The Tigers (95 wRC+, 18.9 K%, 4.7 HR/FB vs LHP) have not been terrible this season, but have made all sorts of characters look like Cy Young award winners recently, including Chris Tillman, Chad Kuhl, Jake Faria and the previously struggling Chris Archer. Snell is still below $10K on DraftKings and even just $8.7K on FanDuel where he’s a great pivot from Kluber or Martinez.
Michael Fulmer threw 31 sliders and generated 24 whiffs in 99 pitches last time out
Michael Fulmer did not exceed an 8.7 SwStr% in any of his first three starts before barely breaking double digits in his fourth against the Royals. In his last start against the Pirates (19.7 K% vs RHP), he threw 31 sliders and generated 24 swings and misses in 99 pitches, while his velocity bumped up for the third straight start. The Rays have jettisoned their weak fastball hitters and dropped their strikeout rate to 22.4% against RHP this season, but perhaps Fulmer sees the merits of throwing more sliders now and a change in philosophy could enable this talented arm to far exceed his $8K or less price tag if that were the case. Today’s Tampa Bay lineup has just a .324 wOBA and .154 ISO against RHP since 2017 according to PlateIQ and only Joey Wendle (130 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is above a .310 wOBA against sliders since 2016. Fulmer is not a sure thing. His 2.76 ERA disregards three unearned runs (25% of season total) and his .355 xwOBA is a match to Matt Moore’s, but he showed something in his most recent start that he’d be silly not to follow up on. He’s at least worth a secondary spot along with a pay up on DraftKings, where he’s just $7.2K.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Joey Wendle Left-handed batters have a .432 wOBA against Matt Moore since 2017
Matt Moore has one quality start in five for the Rangers and the Tribe has a 5.91 Vegas run line that’s third best on the early board. What’s interesting here is that Moore’s .355 xwOBA is bad, but not terrible, while his 3.1% Barrels/BBE is one of the lowest marks on the board and he’s a reverse platoon pitcher (LHBs .432 wOBA since last season), though that’s not to say RHBs don’t have some success against him as well (.349 xwOBA). None of the three left-handed Cleveland bats in the lineup exceed an 80 wRC+ against same-handed pitching since last year, but Yonder Alonso does have a .245 ISO. Francisco Lindor (132 wRC+, .210 ISO) and, surprisingly, Roberto Perez (110 wRC+, .237 ISO) are the two right-handed bats above both a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO against southpaws since last season (Jose Ramirez is not in the lineup). Rajai Davis (64 wRC+, .108 ISO) may provide some utility as an incredibly cheap leadoff option, but he hasn’t done much against LHP since his heroic bomb against Chapman in the 2016 World Series.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Roberto Perez, Rajai Davis, Matt Moore Corey Kluber isn't getting as many swings outside of the zone, but has gone at least eight innings in half his starts
Corey Kluber may not look as dominant as 2017, but he’s the clear class of the afternoon slate. He completed eight innings for the third time in six starts last time out, reaching double digit strikeouts for the second time and has not gone fewer than 5.2 innings in a start this season. The strikeout rate (28.1%) and swinging strike rate (11%) are both down a bit, while his 91 Z-Contact% is worst on the afternoon board. The chase rate (31.8%) is down, though he still has a quality 31.2 Z-O-Swing%, but he won’t be able to sustain a .198 BABIP. Most of this and a .274 xwOBA still suggest he’s pretty great, but there are things to watch going forward. He retains immense upside and expectations hosting a Texas offense with an 86 wRC+ and 25.2 K% vs RHP this year. PlateIQ (conditional formatting now available to premium subscribers) shows today’s lineup with a combined .296 wOBA, .154 ISO, and 25.8 K% against RHP since last season. Also utilizing PlateIQ, we know that Kluber has one of the best breaking balls we’ve ever seen (IQ is calling it a curveball). While Joey Gallo (123 wRC+, .335 ISO, 46.5 Hard%, 54.4 FB%) has a Contact xwOBA well above .500 against both curves and sliders, his actual wOBA is below .300 against both pitches in his career because he struggles to make contact with them. Curves, in particular, may be the rare pitch he struggles to elevate (46.15 GB%).
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Joey Gallo