DFS Alerts
Attack The Broken Pitcher
I still have hope for Luis Castillo to turn things around, but he looks broken right now, especially against left-handed batters. So far this season he has allowed 45% hard hits with below average strikeouts to lefties. Travis Shaw has a .254 ISO and .375 wOBA against righties since the start of 2017 and already has six home runs against righties this season.
Danny Duffy has allowed 42 of his 45 HRs since 2016 to RHBs; Mookie Betts (143 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP since 2017) returns to lineup
Vegas favors the Red Sox offense more than any other on Wednesday afternoon (6.16 runs) against the struggling Danny Duffy (10 ER last 10.2 IP with just five strikeouts). Duffy’s swinging strike rate is just 8.6% this season and his 90.1 Z-Contact% is nearly five points above his career average. The result has been a 90.2 mph aEV and .381 xwOBA. He faces a Boston lineup that has been tamed by competent LHP (50 wRC+, 18.8 K-BB%, 5.6 HR/FB), but they do get Mookie Betts (143 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP since 2017) back today and also possess the most potent lefty-masher in baseball: J.D. Martinez (210 wRC+, .473 xwOBA, .439 ISO, 54.4 Hard%). Right-handed batters have a .333 wOBA (.334 xwOBA) against Duffy since last season with 42 of the 45 of the home runs he’s allowed since 2016 against him. However, Xander Bogaerts (108 wRC+) is the only other RHB in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ vs southpaws since last season. Hanley Ramirez (.178 ISO) is the only other RHB above a .150 ISO. Almost all relevant Boston bats are fairly expensive. Bogaerts has joined the Fly Ball Revolution (1.6 GB/FB last year, 1.00 in 2018) and the wind is blowing out to center, but costs $5K on DraftKings this afternoon ($4.1K on FanDuel).
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Danny Duffy
The Top Bat To Spend For
There is not a lot to love at the high end tonight, and Harper stands out to me as the top overall hitter. Ivan Nova has no ability to control batted balls or get swings and misses from left-handed batters. In addition, he is not a guy who like to walk batters, either intentionally or unintentionally, so I think we’ve got a better chance of Harper seeing a pitch to hit tonight than usual.
My Favorite Lefty Masher
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen the good version of Brett Anderson. Early in his career, he was able to pile up ground balls and soft contact, but is long past his prime, and only back in the majors due to lack of options in the Oakland rotation. In 47 innings against righties in 2017, Anderson had just a 15.4% K rate and 47% ground balls with no ability to limit hard contact. Cruz just keeps crushing lefties with a 44% hard hit rate the past two seasons and a home run every 12 AB against lefties dating back to 2016.
Back To The Savings Well
It couldn’t have worked out better for the chalky FanDuel cheap play last night with 2 home runs from Adams, and while we can’t expect that again, this is still one of the best salary savers on the board tonight. Ivan Nova has no strikeout ability against left-handed batters at just 11.8% since last season and he loses his ground ball ability to lefties. Adams hit the ball hard and has a .261 ISO against righties over the past two seasons.
Lucas Duda scratched Wednesday; Mike Moustakas replaces
Duda has been scratched from the Kansas City Royals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup with the Boston Red Sox due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Mike Moustakas, who will play first base and slot into the third spot in the order, which will drop Cheslor Cuthbert down to fifth and Jon Jay down to sixth, repsectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Royals order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Drew Pomeranz this afternoon.
As reported by: Maria Torres via Twitter
Underpriced K Upside
James Paxton has been inconsistent this season, but there’s no questioning his strikeout ability. He has two 10-K games in his last four, and his 31.2% strikeout rate on the season is higher than that of deGrom or Strasburg. Because his control has been a little off leading to a high ERA, his salary has dropped to too low a level for his upside at home against a high strikeout Oakland team. If it turns out that salary is no issue for your builds tonight, I would use deGrom/Strasburg ahead of Paxton, but points per dollar favors Paxton tonight.
The Ideal Matchup
Pitching is loaded tonight and there are a lot of ways to go. I will never have any issue with paying up for guys like Strasburg or deGrom, but this is the ideal situation for Aaron Nola going into Miami. His overall strikeout rate looks disappointing, but digging in further, we see a crazy high 34.5% K rate with just 1.7% walks to righties this season. That’s 20 strikeouts and 1 walk. He’s also limiting hard contact at an elite level. Miami will likely have 7-8 low power righties in their lineup giving Nola both a high floor and a high ceiling.
Getting Some Right-Handed Bats at Affordable Prices
The Reds are not a good baseball team, but their offense has shown some flashes of a breakout in recent games. They also draw a favorable matchup here against Wade Miley, who will be making his first regular season start for the Brewers. He’s always a pitcher who we can stack against because of his high walk rate, and his 2017 numbers were pretty terrible all around. On a night that is thin for offense, I’ll happily target some of the Reds RHBs, and you could add Joey Votto as part of a GPP stack as well.
Other tagged players: Jose Peraza, Devin Mesoraco
The Top Offense on a Short Thursday Night Slate
Tonight’s slate is loaded with pitching and thin on offense, so there isn’t a ton to love with the bats. The Phillies have become far and away my favorite offense to target given the matchups. They draw a fine matchup against Jose Urena, who has a below average strikeout rate and allows bundles of hard contact. He does get a fair number of ground balls, but any pitcher who is allowing a 49% hard hit rate to lefties and a 38% hard hit rate to righties is attackable — especially on this slate. Fire up all the power bats for the Phillies here tonight.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez Attacking the Splits of a League Average Pitcher
Although Ivan Nova has relatively neutral wOBA splits so far this year, the batted ball data paints a different picture. Nova’s ground ball rate dips from 58% against RHBs to 40% against LHBs, and his strikeout rate drops from 28% against RHBs to just 9% against LHBs so far this year. His wOBA splits were about 50 points a year ago, and I would expect this year’s to trend in that direction. As such, the Washington LHBs are strong options this evening. Bryce Harper hit a home run last night and Matt Adams swatted two, so they are in form right now as well. Matt Adams remains priced at a dirt cheap level on FanDuel, and all the lefties are in play as a GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Matt Wieters High Upside at a Reasonable Price Tag
This is an interesting night for pitching. We have big time aces in deGrom, Severino, and Strasburg on the bump, but I actually prefer some cheaper options. James Paxton is right there with Aaron Nola as one of my favorites this evening. Although his command has been a bit more shaky this year, the stuff is as good as ever. Paxton currently owns a 31% strikeout rate and has a SIERA and xFIP in the mid-threes. I don’t mind the matchup against an A’s team that does have some free swingers, and Paxton certainly has the upside to match the other aces this evening.
Buy Low With a Bona Fide Ace on the Cheap
This is the time to buy low on Aaron Nola. He will always be a fairly extreme splits pitcher that is solid against right-handed bats and weaker against left-handed bats. Unfortunately for Nola, he has had to face the lefty-heavy Braves in three of his first six starts this season. He has held righties to a .213 wOBA so far this season and has allowed hard contact to all batters at a sub-20% clip. His profile remains rock solid, and the strikeouts should rise in better matchups. I love the way he matches up with the Marlins, who really only have two competent lefties in Bour and Dietrich. Expect a solid bounce-back from the Phillies’ ace tonight.
Too Cheap On FanDuel
Seattle is one of my top stacks on the slate, and Ryon Healy in particular is one of my favorite plays on FanDuel. He should bat towards the bottom of the order, and I’m hoping he goes overlooked here. He has a .392 xwOBA with a .203 ISO against left-handed pitching since the start of 2017. He was really good with Oakland last season, and finally looks to be healthy for Seattle. Anderson was bad against right-handed hitters last season. He gave up a lot of hard contact and had a high 1.53 WHIP. He also had a very low strikeout rate against right-handed hitters last season. This is a great spot for Healy, and I’ll be attacking Anderson a lot tonight.
Don't Let The wOBA Fool You
Wade Miley was added to the rotation for the Brewers and will make his first start of the season tonight. He posted a .374 wOBA with a 1.79 WHIP and a 4.74 xFIP in 129.1 innings against righties last season. He had an awful 16.3% hard to soft contact ratio and had a very high 1.67 HR/9 against righties. I love the Reds righties tonight, and that starts with Adam Duvall. He has a .322 wOBA this season against lefties, but the .591 xwOBA and .267 ISO tells us a lot more than the low wOBA. In his last 178 PAs against lefties, Duvall has a .292 ISO with a .428 xwOBA and a 35.9% hard contact rate. In this matchup, Duvall sets up as one of the top value plays on the slate.