DFS Alerts
Right Back At It
Matt Adams is coming off a big game last night, so I would expect the Nationals to use the same type of lineup tonight. I expect him to be popular, and I think that makes a lot of sense for the matchup. In his last 97.1 innings against lefties, Nova has a 4.84 xFIP with a 1.43 WHIP and a .347 wOBA. He also has a 1.57 HR/9 with a 34.8% hard contact rate. Nova has been above average against righties, but he’s really struggled with left-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Adams has a .261 ISO with a .449 xwOBA against righties since the start of 2017. Nova relies on his 2-seam fastball against lefties, which has resulted in a 7.26% swinging strike rate with a .449 xwOBA this season. Adams has over a .400 xwOBA against 2-seam fastballs since the start of 2017.
He Should Be Priced Higher
When looking at this slate, Aaron Nola really stood out to me on FanDuel. With him being the sixth-overall pitcher in terms of price, I think he’s an excellent source of value. At this price, he projects as one of the highest point per dollar plays, and I couldn’t agree more with the projections. If Justin Bour is back, that makes two lefties in this lineup, meaning Nola would see seven right-handed hitters. Since the start of 2017, Nola has a 2.65 xFIP with a .99 WHIP against right-handed hitters. He also has a 30.6% strikeout rate with a .262 wOBA and a 1.5% hard to soft contact ratio. Realmuto, Bour, and Dietrich worry me a little, but this projected starting lineup with Bour has a .125 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Nola is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Searching For Upside
When looking at the main slate, there isn’t a value pitcher I just love, but I do like how bad the Mets have been against lefties this season. Sean Newcomb is finally putting it together, and if he could just limit the walks, he would be one of the best young pitchers in baseball. His xFIP is down to 3.58, which is a lot better than the 4.52 xFIP in 2017. His soft contact is up, and his hard to soft contact ratio is 5.4% better this season. He also comes in with a 28.1% strikeout rate in five starts this season. The Mets projected starting lineup has a .130 ISO with a .292 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Not one projected starter has an ISO over .200 against lefties this season, and even the xwOBAs are all under .355 except Rosario. There is some solid upside here for Newcomb, and hopefully he limits the walks in this matchup.
Steve Pearce scratched Tuesday; Kendrys Morales replaces
Pearce has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup with the Minnesota Twins due to what’s been reported as a manager’s decision. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Kendrys Morales, who will take over the designated hitter responsibilities and slot into the seventh spot in the order, sliding Kevin Pillar and Lourdes Gurriel each up one spot in the lineup to fifth and sixth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Blue Jays order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Kyle Gibson this evening.
As reported by: Shi Davidi via Twitter
Joc Pederson (118 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP since 2017) moves up to the two hole against Matt Koch
The Dodger lineup is looking a little thin these days with injuries piling up, but tonight they face a pitcher they should be able to touch up in Arizona. Matt Koch has a 1.93 ERA through 14 innings this year, but a .340 xwOBA that’s 188 points higher than his actual mark. In 32 career innings, the 27 year-old has just a 16.9 K%. He allowed 11 HRs in 45 innings at AAA last season. With Joc Pederson (118 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP since 2017) in the second spot tonight, the top half of the Dodger order, including Chris Taylor (122 wRC+, .212 ISO), Yasmani Grandal (115 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .298 ISO) should pay dividends tonight. Only Bellinger is above $4K on either site. Even Matt Kemp has hit RHP well since last season (109 wRC+, .212 ISO).
Other tagged players: Matt Koch, Yasmani Grandal, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Matt Kemp
Tyson Ross (.277 xwOBA) and Nick Tropeano (21.1 K%) are potential low cost DraftKings compliments
Players paying up for one pitcher on DraftKings (which should be nearly everybody) will likely need a cheaper secondary arm and two of those possibilities are on the west coast tonight. Tyson Ross predictably had some trouble in Coors (4 IP – 4 ER) after throwing 127 pitches in Arizona in a no-hit effort, but he still struck out seven of 21 batters. It was his first failure to complete six innings this year. Batters are chasing the slider again (28.2% Z-O-Swing%), leading to a .277 xwOBA and the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball on the board (2.9%). He has some platoon split issues, but may be in the perfect spot tonight. The park in San Francisco kills left-handed power (and Brandon Belt’s career) and the Giants have few competent left-handers to attack him with. They have a 16.8 K-BB% vs RHP that’s very close to his own mark this season (17.1%). Nick Tropeano has allowed nine runs (three HRs) over his last 10.2 innings in starts against the Red Sox and Astros. There are some long ball concerns, but he can also miss a few bats (21.1 K%, 10.8 SwStr%) at a low cost. He gets a highly strikeout prone Baltimore offense (25.8 % vs RHP) in a negative run environment in LA.
Other tagged players: Nick Tropeano Alex Cobb has a .535 xwOBA and 5.3 SwStr% through three starts
It’s too early to judge the entire contract, but Alex Cobb certainly hasn’t been ready to start the season after missing a chunk of spring training. He has a 5.3 SwStr%, 13.11 ERA, 5.32 SIERA and .535 xwOBA through three starts. He’s allowed at least five runs in every start, failing to strike out a single batter twice. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA above .500 against him this year. He now has no platoon split since the start of last season, with batters from either side between a .338 to .340 xwOBA. The Angels have a 4.88 implied run line and should be stacked with impunity where affordable. Some cheaper bats will be necessary to get you to the middle with Mike Trout (187 wRC+, .347 ISO vs RHP since 2017), Justin Upton (114 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (253 wRC+, .469 ISO). Andrelton Simmons (109 wRC+, .153 ISO) has a 261 wRC+ over the last week and is a bit cheaper than the rest.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Andrelton Simmons, Alex Cobb Kevin's evening forecast is more about wind than rain
Kevin’s evening forecast is up and for the second day in a row, it’s more about wind conditions than rain tonight. Players can read the entire report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can tune into Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time New conditional formatting in PlateIQ helps premium subscribers save time
An umpire probably is not going to break your decision to use Max Scherzer or Chris Sale, but if you need to pair another lower priced pitcher up with them (Tyson Ross, Nick Tropeano, the debuting Mike Soroka), an extreme ball and strike caller behind the plate could move the needle a bit, especially for pitchers with questionable control. Premium and BAT subscribers can now find those umpire ratings built right into LineupHQ, one of the many new features available on the site. Another, Stolen Base Threat Ratings may assist in finding that low priced value bat tonight. On a 14 game slate, there are a lot of players and stats to pour through. PlateIQ now makes that easier with conditional formatting. These are just some of the new MLB tools available to premium subscribers this season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Tyson Ross, Nick Tropeano, Mike Soroka Homer Bailey has allowed five HRs over his last three starts, has a .402 xwOBA on the season
Homer Bailey has allowed five home runs over his last three starts and has struck out more than once in just four starts. He faces a dangerous Milwaukee lineup with a 4.97 implied run line tonight. Batters from either side have a wOBA of .350 or better against him since last season and it increases to above .360 by xwOBA. He has a .402 overall xwOBA in 2018. Lorenzo Cain (113 wRC+, .122 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is the most expensive batter on either site. Christian Yelich (121 wRC+, .165 ISO) and Travis Shaw (131 wRC+, .255 ISO) are slightly cheaper. Ryan Braun (105 wRC+, .203 ISO) costs just $3.3K on FanDuel. Jesus Aguilar (107 wRC+, .232 ISO) could be the value play here.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar Affordably priced Cardinal bats (5.26 implied run line) could be a path towards high priced pitching
The St Louis Cardinals have a 5.46 implied run line that’s second best on the board against James Shields, yet only Tommy Pham (148 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Paul DeJong (125 wRC+, 240 ISO) are the only bats on either site above $4K. The St Louis Cardinals might just be the path towards high priced pitching tonight. While Shields has a 63 points split in his wOBA since last season, batters from either side are above a .350 xwOBA with him owning both a 35% hard hit and ground ball rate against right-handed batters. St Louis can be tough on power, but not only is the temperature expected to be around 80 degrees, but Kevin’s forecast has the wind blowing out to left at more than 10 mph. Matt Carpenter (126 wRC+, .222 ISO), Dexter Fowler (122 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (138 wRC+, .242 ISO) are all strong hitters against RHP who are reasonably priced.
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, James Shields, Paul DeJong Chris Archer has struggled with contact, but faces an unimposing lineup and has a career high 14.5 SwStr%
Chris Archer has allowed at least four runs in five of six starts and a single HR in every start this year. The bat missing skills continue to be fantastic (14.5 SwStr% is a career high), but he’s otherwise getting shelled. A .379 BABIP does not comply with an 18.2 LD%, so there’s definitely some regression coming there, but his Z-Swing is up significantly (75.4%), while his O-Swing hasn’t moved (31.5%) and his Z-Contact (85.6%) has moved in the wrong direction. These are not positive trends. However, he’s facing a Detroit offense that has made Chris Tillman and Jake Faria look like Aces the last few days and is without Miguel Cabrera. He gets another boost from winds blowing in around 15 mph from right-field. The actual lineup that the Tigers are fielding tonight have a .288 wOBA and .133 ISO according to PlateIQ with a 22.5 K% that’s just about league average this year. Jeimer Candelario (130 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is the major threat here for a pitcher who struggles against LHBs (.347 wOBA since last season). Otherwise, there’s not really many bats who should be able to hurt him here. Nick Castellanos is second by both wRC+ (100) and ISO (.182) against RHP with it quickly plummeting afterward. The problem with Archer may be lineup construction. Do players pass up on an Ace and use him to enable more expensive bats or try to squeeze him into the lineup at $9.2K on DraftKings along with a higher priced arm. Ownership projections are another piece of the puzzle players may want to consider when they are available later to premium subscribers on both LineupHQ and the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos Mike Soroka (#34 Fangraphs prospect) makes his major league debut against the Mets
Mike Soroka is a late addition to the board, replacing Sean Newcomb. The much heralded 20 year-old is making his major league debut at Citi Field against a lineup that surprisingly contains Yoenis Cespedes (215 wRC+, 43.8 Hard% over the last week), who injured his thumb in San Diego. Soroka was number 34 on the Fangraphs Top 100 list this pre-season. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, but a high spin slider is complimented with an improving change-up, aiding him to a 21.8 K-BB% in his first 22.2 innings of AAA action this season. It may seem under-whelming on a board full of Aces, but he has a chance to at least be an above average pitcher and completed seven innings (26 batters) in his most recent start. His $4K price tag on DraftKings automatically makes him one of the more interesting arms on a board where he could allow substantial lineup flexibility when paying up for one of tonight’s five studs. Along with Cespedes, Jay Bruce is heating up as well (220 wRC+ over the last week) and a Mets stack (4.37 implied runs) could have a duel effect if it pays off and takes some Soroka lineups out. There’s reasonable justification for exposure to either side of this matchup.
As reported by: Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Mike Soroka Cubs have an implied run line of 5.9 with the winds blasting out at Wrigley again
It didn’t have much of an impact last night, but winds are once again expected to be blasting out to left-center at 20-30 miles per hour again at Wrigley. As a result, Vegas has blessed the home team with a Coors-ian 5.9 implied run line against a pretty good pitcher in Jon Gray. He’s now bookended 18 runs over 15.2 innings with 13 innings of shutout baseball with 18 strikeouts. The Cubs were probably his worst outing of the season at Coors (5 IP – 6 ER – 3 BB – 1 K). It was also his only start with a sub-10 SwStr%. Perhaps he treats this as a Coors outing and attempts to generate ground balls over strikeouts. It must be bat you’re power hitter leadoff day on Tuesday because Anthony Rizzo (126 wRC+, .211 ISO) finds himself at the top of the lineup tonight. Gray doesn’t have much of a platoon split (xwOBA below .315 against batters from either side) and it’s curious how players might pay up for Chicago bats with all three batters above a .200 ISO vs RHP since last season (Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ) all either costly or, in Happ’s case, batting eighth. Nobody else is even above a .160 ISO. Vegas says 5.9 runs, but this might be a high spot that players can consider fading in favor of high priced pitching.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, Jon Gray Bryce Harper bats leadoff against Chad Kuhl (LHBs .380 wOBA, 39.5 Hard% since 2017)
Chad Kuhl has looked decent against inferior competition (Detroit twice, Miami, the Rockies at home), but is a pitcher who has significant issues against LHBs (.380 wOBA, .357 xwOBA, 39.5 Hard%, 34.8 GB% since 2017). Perhaps batting leadoff may remove an opportunity to drive in runs when Bryce Harper (176 wRC+, .432 xwOBA, .337 ISO vs RHP since 2017) goes deep, but this is a fantastic spot for the struggling slugger (37 wRC+ last seven days), along with Matt Adams (132 wRC+, .260 ISO) behind him (still just $2K on FanDuel!).
Other tagged players: Chad Kuhl, Matt Adams