DFS Alerts
Jakob Junis allowed five HRs in his last start & Xander Bogaerts (GB rate down 16.3%) may be joining the Fly Ball Revolution
The Red Sox are one of three teams above five implied runs, facing Jakob Junis, who does have some talent, but also throws too many fat pitches. He’s allowed eight HRs over his last three starts, five in his last one alone. Fenway is more run than power friendly, but they’ve got a few guys who can take the ball deep even without Mookie Betts around. J.D. Martinez (151 wRC+, .421 xwOBA, .337 ISO, 49.5 Hard% vs RHP since 2017) is the prime candidate. While Junis has no platoon split in his career, RHBs have a 53 point increase in their xwOBA (.371) against him. Mitch Moreland (107 wRC+, .223 ISO) actually has the second highest ISO against RHP in the lineup. Don’t worry, Junis’s xwOBA against LHBs (.335) was well above his actual wOBA as well. Hanley Ramirez (108 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Andrew Benintendi (113 wRC+, .179 ISO) are above average as well. One other interesting note is that Xander Bogaerts (104 wRC+, .154 ISO) may be finally joining the Fly Ball Revolution. He’s hitting fewer ground balls (-16.3%) through 54 PAs and has a .333 ISO overall this year.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Jakob Junis
Max Scherzer headlines a group of five $10K+ pitchers on both sites for Tuesday
Paying up for pitching is the thing to do tonight. There are five studs on this board, which should spread out ownership enough that there won’t be a need to consider one particular guy, though the early guess might be that Max Scherzer would be the most popular. Though the Pirates don’t strike out a ton (19.7%), but he creates his own strikeout upside and aside from a slightly shaky outing in Atlanta, he’s one of the few guys who hasn’t really had a bad start this year. Double digit strikeouts in four of six starts and no fewer than seven. Chris Sale will be looking to bounce back from his lowest strikeout total of the season (four with two HRs in Toronto). He still has the lowest xwOBA on the board (.225). The Royals aren’t a strikeout happy team overall, but 25.6% vs LHP. Justin Verlander gone at least seven innings in three of his last four and has struck out at least nine in four of his last five. He’s got a difficult assignment in the Yankees, but he faces them in one of the most negative run environments in baseball and they do strike out in 24% of PAs against RHP. He also had little trouble dominating this lineup last October. Noah Syndergaard pitched into the eighth inning in St Louis last time out and has been above an 11 SwStr% in every start this season. He’s behind only Scherzer and Sale by xwOBA. His last start against the Braves resulted in a season low six strikeouts and they have a 20.8% mark against RHP, but he surely has the upside to hang with the rest of them if he’s going to be the forgotten man here. Clayton Kershaw has allowed seven runs over his last 12 innings and walked six Marlins last time out, while throwing a season high 112 pitches in his shortest outing of the season (five innings). His velocity is down a mile per hour (92) and he’s throwing more sliders than he ever has (39%) to compensate. Rightfully, there may be some concern, but he’s made those concerns look foolish before in the past and run off several months of dominance following a poor outing or two. A career worst 42.6 Z-O-Swing% is really one of the largest concerns so far. More than chases are down (31%), batters are swinging at strikes (73.9%) and hitting them more often (86.2%). Arizona does have a 26.1 K% vs LHP too though.
Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw Too Cheap For This Talent
The pitching change for the Braves has given us a minimum salary option on DK/FDRFT. Soroka is a top prospect who has shown remarkable skills at a young age at every level of the minors. He has elite control with a lot of ground ball ability and plenty of strikeout ability. I can’t quite call him ‘safe’ at just 20-years old in his first major league start, but he is clearly too cheap for his talent, and this savings allows you to get a top ace without sacrificing your hitters.
Overlooked Stack
Tuesday’s slate is so packed with offensive options that the team (Angels) squaring off against the worst pitcher on the slate (Alex Cobb) may go overlooked. Cobb has been terribad this year as he’s allowed 20 runs (17 ER) over 11.2 IP over 3 starts and has given up 3 HRs over that span. His strikeout (6%) is laughable and he’s simply not fooling anyone or getting any swinging strikes (5.3 SwStr%). Trout (obviously) and Upton are my favorite guys to target in this stack while guys like Ohtani (hopefully back at DH) and Kinsler offer strong upside in their own rights.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Ian Kinsler
Wind Is A Lie
Wind is a lie. We got all excited for our first Wrigley wind of the season yesterday only to be massively disappointed. Well, we get round two tonight as it’s even windier and warmer than what it was Monday night. The Cubs will face off against Jon Gray who hasn’t pitched a good game this year against a team not named ‘San Diego Padres’. The Cubs touched up Gray in Colorado just two starts ago for 7 runs (6 earned) in five innings. A similar result on Tuesday would not be surprising as the Cubbies make the best overall stack of the night and should be heavily targeted in both cash games and GPPs.
Other tagged players: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras Multiple HR Upside
The Rays are the cheap stack of the night and individually these guys may see some relatively high ownership numbers due to the stud pitching on the slate. The Rays have a strong 4.7 implied run total that is trending up as they’ll square off against Matt Boyd in Detroit. Boyd has struggled as a Big League starter (5.27 ERA, 5.36 SIERA) and is a fly ball pitcher that struggles keeping the ball in the park (career 1.58 HR/9, 12.6% HR/FB). Cron is the best option to use as a filler in GPPs as he gives you legit multiple HR upside in this matchup.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gomez, Matt Duffy Sean Newcomb scratched; Mike Soroka will start against NYM
The Braves are choosing to give Sean Newcomb an extra day of rest in addition to Julio Teheran and thus will start Mike Soroka against the Mets. Newcomb was a superior DFS target given his strikeout upside, but the Mets LHBs are now more appealing.
Ghost Ride the WHIP
Wacha stands out to me as the top low (FanDuel) to mid (DraftKings) priced SP option as he’ll square off against the whiff heavy (27.4 K% vs RHP), DH-less White Sox squad in St. Louis. Wacha can be a frustrating guy to roster, especially on DraftKings, because of his high WHIP (1.29 career) but he’s coming off back-to-back 1 ER performances in which he did a good job of limiting free passes (1 BB in each start). Due to Wacha’s control issues, he’s a guy that you’ll want to monitor which ump will be calling the game – a poor ump won’t detract me from rostering Wacha in GPPs but a very favorable ump may push me to a few extra shares.
Not in My Lifetime
I didn’t think I would see a sub-10% owned Clayton Kershaw in my DFS lifetime but that seems like a fairly strong possibility on Tuesday night. Kershaw has been completely underwhelming from a fantasy perspective so far this year and is outclassed by Max Scherzer + Chris Sale and their respective matchups on this slate. That should lead to a massive ownership discount for Kershaw who does still have some upside in a matchup against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. Kershaw isn’t a guy I’m actively targeting for single entry GPPs but is a guy I want to be overweight on (20-25%) if multi-entering.
Paying up at Shortstop
I play Trea Turner more than most DFS players. I’m always a sucker for a player that has decent power and speed, especially when they are batting lead-off for a good offense. The Nationals are still missing a few of their best hitters, but they have a high implied total tonight, as they square off against Chad Kuhl at home. Kuhl isn’t particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters and he’s not great at holding runners. Turner is expensive, but he has such a high floor given his skill set.
Here's some Good Chalk for you
Being able to identify good chalk from bad chalk is a difficult proposition in DFS, but if you are able to do so, you will put yourself at a huge advantage over the rest of the field. One of my favorite good chalk plays of the night is Matt Carpenter. He owns a .386 xwOBA with a 43% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Tonight he squares off against James Shields, who is one of the most hitter-friendly pitchers in baseball. The best part is that Carpenter is cheap across the industry.
Best Hitter of the Slate
In a slate this size, there are typically a few batters that are fighting it out for the right as the top hitter on the board. The way I see it, Mike Trout is the best play available. Alex Cobb has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 5.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. Trout offers power (.462 xwOBA against right-handed pitching) and speed (five stolen bases this season).
Young Arm at a Discount
When it comes to an SP1, there are plenty of options at the top — Scherzer, Sale, Kershaw, Syndergaard, etc. In order to get some decent hitters with one of those aces, we need to find a cheap SP2 with upside. Andrew Suarez is an unknown quantity at the major league level, but he did pitch well in his debut, striking out seven batters against the Diamondbacks. In his last full season at the Triple-A level, he posted a 3.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. Tonight he squares off against the strikeout-prone Padres at home in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park.
Take your Pick at the Top
This slate is absolutely loaded with elite arms, so we have plenty of choices up top. There are two that I have ranked above everyone else — Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. I am giving the slightest of edges to Sale, who is pitching at home against the Royals. Kansas City isn’t the most patient offense at the plate and with Sale attacking every single batter in the lineup, it should lead to a lot of strikeouts. He owns a strikeout rate of 35% this season and I’ll go out on a limb and say that number goes up after tonight’s start.
Site Specific Values
On FanDuel, Matt Adams is at bare minimum salary, and a key piece of building a lineup to fit in an ace pitcher. In the very early going this season, Chad Kuhl has ramped up his strikeout rate against lefties, but he’s still getting hit hard, as usual. For his career, Kuhl has allowed a 39% hard hit rate with 40% fly balls to left-handed batters, leading to a .375 wOBA against. Since the start of 2017, Adams has a .264 ISO against right-handed pitching on 40% hard hits. There is some strikeout risk here, but it’s more than priced in to this salary.