DFS Alerts
It's Now or Never in a Great Matchup
It was a brutal April for Matt Carpenter, but the page has now turned to May… and the Cardinals get to face James Shields. Good times await. Shields has no ability whatsoever to get left-handed batters out, and Carpenter’s combination of contact skills along with this matchup sets up nicely. This is a premier breakout spot, and Carpenter is now sitting with a dirt cheap price tag. As they say, buy low!
Still Priced at $2,000 on FanDuel?
I am not sure why Matt Adams is still buried at the minimum salary tag on FanDuel. He owns solid numbers against RHP this year, with a .411 wOBA, a .267 ISO, and a 161 wRC+. Adams also gets a matchup here against Chad Kuhl, who notoriously struggles against left-handed bats. Adams should be featured in a prominent lineup spot tonight (potentially cleanup behind Harper), and he’s far and away my favorite value on FanDuel. I think you can also target him on DK/FDRAFT despite the fact that he is a little more expensive over there, too.
Site Specific Values
I’m going to be digging for any values I can find today, and on DK/FDRFT, Justin Smoak is bizarrely underpriced. He cost $4,500 on DK eight days ago, and has done nothing to warrant his continuous price decline. Kyle Gibson is showing signs of life, and had a magical outing last week in New York, but he is nothing special against left-handed batters. His strikeouts have been consistently below average to lefties for years and typically shows more of his ground ball skills to righties. Smoak hits the ball hard from the middle of the lineup, and is a play for me in all formats on DK/FDRFT.
Getting a Solid Splits Player on the Cheap
Wilmer Flores hasn’t really held true to his lefty-mashing ways so far this season, but we are still dealing with a small sample size. Flores is still hitting in favorable lineup spots against LHP, and let’s not forget that he sported a .262 ISO against southpaws a year ago. He is also considerably cheaper than usual right now, which adds to the salary relief appeal against a young, inconsistent lefty in Sean Newcomb. Flores is a fine value option tonight.
A Possible Punt at Pitcher
With all the aces on the mound tonight, it might not be wise to go dirt cheap at pitcher, but Suarez is an option if you really want to do that. He showed decent stuff with seven strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in his debut last week, and he draws a great matchup here against a Padres team that strikes out at the highest clip in the league. The game is also being played in a pitcher-friendly park, so there’s a path to potential production here from Suarez.
The Road To Aces Begins Here
If focusing on top pitchers tonight, salary becomes a deciding factor for bats tonight. Derek Dietrich should be near the top of the lineup against a Phillies pitcher who has been Eflin bad against left-handed batters so far in his career. In 66 career inning against lefties, Eflin has a 10.2% strikeout rate with 36% hard hits allowed leading to a .385 wOBA against. Dietrich is basically an average hitter against righties for his career, and this salary is too cheap for this particular matchup, especially on DK/FDRFT.
The Top Salary Relief Pitching Option
If you are looking for a safe arm with which to save some salary this evening, Wacha is clearly a viable choice. The Cardinals are whopping -210 favorites at home against James Shields and the White Sox, and Wacha has looked much better over his last few starts. His last outing against the Mets was one of the most impressive outings I have seen from him over the last few seasons, and that is an encouraging sign moving forward. He also has a nice matchup here tonight against a free-swinging White Sox team that will also be losing their designated hitter in this series. Wacha is a fine value piece in any format this evening.
Flying High Tonight
The Cardinals are in a prime spot tonight against James Shields who comes in with a ridicukous 15:17 K:BB ratio and a 6.14 ERA that is at least as bad as it looks. Just as we saw last season, Shields has been brutal against left-handed batting with no strikeout ability and poor control. Since the start of 2017, Carpenter has a 43% hard hit rate and strong plate skills leading to a .382 OBP against right-handed pitching. He has a on base floor, and plenty of power upside with his fly balls and hard hits. He is a steal at this salary with his second base eligibility.
Just Too Good
Let me start by saying I understand that you can’t play both Scherzer and Sale in all the same lineups. These Core Plays are designed to give you the best of the best options, and ideally, you can fit them all in the same lineup. But, on some days, you won’t be able to use them all, but if I can’t separate the two elite options, it would be disservice to imply that one is heads and shoulders above the other. That is the case today with Scherzer and Sale. One of these two guys needs to be in your core. In 2017, these guys were #1 and #2 in the league in strikeouts, and this season, while Scherzer has taken the lead, we still have a 32.6% K rate with just 5.8% walks from Sale and a friendlier matchup for upside than what Scherzer has. Sale’s only weakness is home runs, and the Royals come in 29th in the league in homers this season and 28th in ISO. There is limitless upside and a lot of safety in the matchup. I slightly prefer Scherzer in cash games, but this is a 1/1-A situation, and I recommend heavy exposure to both guys tonight.
Already Elite And Hitting A New Level
Pitching is absolutely loaded at the top tonight, but I’ve got to start with Max Scherzer who has amazingly taken his already elite strikeout ability to yet another level so far this season. He has 57 strikeouts in 39 innings with 9+ strikeouts in five of his six starts. He has ramped up his K’s against lefties, and has been matchup-proof. The Pirates are not a high strikeout team, but opponent has been irrelevant, and whatever Pittsburgh takes away in strikeouts, they give back in lack of home run power, which is really the only thing that can hurt Scherzer. If you can afford him, play him in all formats on all sites.
Zack Greinke is still missing bats (26.2 K%), but hard contact increases (90.1 mph aEV) with continued velocity drop
Zack Greinke is complicated tonight. He did strike out nine for the second time this season in his last outing, but also allowed at least four runs for the third time in four starts. He’s still missing a lot of bats with the slider, but continued velocity loss is getting his other pitches spanked (12.8% Barrels/BBE). He faces a difficult lineup (Dodgers 110 wRC+ vs RHP) in a suspect park, but a 26.2 K% and 13.6 SwStr% does garner him some attention on a lackluster board, even if players have a right to fear his 90.1 mph aEV. Alternative, it may come down to lineup construction and ownership projections, though preferences may be to pay down where players may able to find similar risk/reward profiles. The Dodger lineup has made an effort to lean more left-handed tonight, including a couple of names we haven’t seen too much yet. Greinke doesn’t have much of a platoon split. Chris Taylor, Yasmani Grandal and Joc Pederson all sit at a wRC+ between 110 and 125 vs RHP since last season with ISOs a bit above .200. Cody Bellinger (141 wRC+, .300 ISO) is the most dangerous bat, but also the only one above $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Zack Greinke, Chris Taylor, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson
Kevin's evening forecast focuses on wind conditions along with one potentially rainy spot
Kevin’s Monday evening forecast is up and can be read in full on the Weather page. It focuses on wind conditions that could have significant impact tonight, alon with one potentially wet spot that’s not too much of a concern right now. Premium subscribers can catch Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET with more in-depth updates.
The absence of Aaron Judge makes this a better spot for Charlie Morton (29.4 K%)
Charlie Morton lasted four innings against the Angels in a start in which he doubled his season HR total to four and walked five, striking out just two of 20 batters faced. He wasn’t throwing any fewer pitches in the zone (48% matches his season rate), but there just wasn’t much chasing going on outside of it (23%). His 5.3 SwStr% was the first time he’s been below 14% in a start. There were no velocity concerns and that single miscue is not enough of a reason to fade him tonight, but a 95.1 LOB% may suggest that he could be over-priced against the smoking hot Yankees (121 wRC+ vs RHP, 127 wRC+ last seven says). They’re walking a ton and otherwise crushing baseballs when they’re not, but have just a 3.85 implied run line for a lineup that does not include Aaron Judge tonight. That is a massive bat missing from the top of this order and brings a perhaps questionable pay up back into play in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. His 29.4 K% is highest on the board. His 14.2 SwStr% is second.
Aaron Sanchez has a 10.8 SwStr% and four straight quality starts
The Minnesota Twins have some formidable bats against RHP. This includes six of tonight’s nine batters above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO since last season and one of the exceptions is Joe Mauer (122 wRC+ and ISO with a 39.4 Hard% and .400 xwOBA – he just really struggles to elevate). It’s really not an easy lineup to navigate, but Aaron Sanchez comes into this outing off four straight quality starts (at least six innings with three ERs or less) and is missing more bats (10.8 SwStr%) than his strikeout rate (17.2%) would have you believe. Combine that with his 56.2 GB% and he may have some upside beyond his $6.5K cost on either site against a Minnesota offense with a 23.4 K% vs RHP since last season. If not considering Sanchez tonight, Eddie Rosario (129 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP) is eternally under-priced at $3.6K or less and Logan Morrison (126 wRC+, .275 ISO) is finally starting to do some damage for the Twins (132 wRC+, 46.7 Hard% last seven days).
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison, Joe Mauer Lance Lynn has walked at least three batters in all four starts with more strikeouts than that in just two of them
Lance Lynn has increased to a 24.1 K% and 13.3 SwStr% this year, but everything else has been a disaster. He’s walked at least three in all four starts and struck out more than that in just half of them, while allowing 46% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. His issues with left-handed batters extend a long way back. They have a .359 wOBA (.361 xwOBA) since last season. The Blue Jays have a 4.86 implied run line that is now a top five mark on the board. Curtis Granderson (122 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2017) has a 295 wRC+ over the last seven days. Justin Smoak (119 wRC+, .401 xwOBA, .258 ISO) costs just $3.5K on DraftKings. A top of the order stack could include the right-handed Teoscar Hernandez (192 wRC+, .433 xwOBA, .417 ISO), who has been punishing same-handed pitching since being traded to Toronto, considering Lynn’s inability to throw strikes to batters from either side of the plate this year.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez, Lance Lynn