DFS Alerts

Pair of Sluggers in Great Environment Project Atop the Board Again

Despite a lack of high end pitching, no offense exceeds five implied runs on an eight game slate that doesn’t include many of the top run environments in the league either. One-quarter of the board does have team run totals above four and a half runs though. Like yesterday, projections again favor two Yankee sluggers in the top run environment on the board, likely enhanced further by hitter friendly weather in Boston. The Yankees currently have the third highest team run total (4.68) against Brayan Bello, who has struck out 21 of 84 batters with a 14.2 SwStr% and half his contact on the ground in his most recent stint with the big league club, though he’s also walked nine. He is a well-regarded prospect (50 Future Value grade) with both a lot of strikeouts (33.8%) and walks (10%) at AAA this year. Batters from either side are within four points of a .350 wOBA against Bello, but no higher than a .320 xwOBA. Aaron Judge (217 wRC+, .392 ISO vs RHP this season) and Giancarlo Stanton (130 wRC+, .273 ISO) are the top two projected bats on the board.

We also find a pair of Orioles projecting among the top 10 against Patrick Corbin, who reverted back to form and took a beating in Philly last time out after a couple of strong starts. With just an 18.2 K% and an awful contact profile (90.8 mph EV, 11.5% Barrels/BBE, 45.9% 95+ mph EV), he has a 6.65 xERA that’s actually above his 6.30 ERA. He doesn’t have a single pitch worth more than 1 RV/100, where positive numbers are bad for pitchers. RHBs have crushed him (.395 wOBA, .402 xwOBA). Anthony Santander (159 wRC+, .248 ISO) projects right behind the two Yankees with Ryan Mountcastle (110 wRC+, .186 ISO) just a few spots behind him. The Orioles have a 4.6 run team total that’s fourth best on the board.

Continuing down the line, we find the top third of the Texas projected lineup that tops the board at 4.73 implied runs against J.P. Sears, who lasted just two innings with three home runs allowed to the White Sox in his last start. He has not been able to come close to replicating his 33.7 AAA K% this year with just a 16.0% mark at the major league level to go along with a 90.9 mph EV and 47.1% 95+ mph EV. His 3.33 ERA is purely the function of an 81.3 LOB% without a non-FIP estimator within a run. RHBs are within two points of a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while LHBs have a .303 wOBA, but .353 xwOBA. Corey Seager (116 wRC+, .244 ISO), Nathaniel Lowe (180 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Marcus Semien (112 wRC+, .163 ISO) all project as top bats tonight from an offense that has pummeled LHP this year (116 wRC+, 16.5 HR/FB).

Last up is a pair of Dodger teammates and guess where their team run total lies? That’s right, they’re second on the board (4.69) against Zach Davies, who continues to manage contact well (87 mph EV, 34.3% 95+ mph EV) with a below average strikeout rate (18.2%). He hasn’t completed six innings since June or has a single estimator that’s not at least a quarter of a run above his 4.09 ERA. Sinkers and changeups have comprised 87% of his arsenal this year. The Dodgers are a top three offense against both pitches since the break. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .303 and .333 wOBA and xwOBA against Davies this year. Mookie Betts (138 wRC+, .266 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (167 wRC+, .216 ISO) project to do the most damage.

Lots of Upside, Some Risk for Tonight's Top Projected Value

Opening LineupHQ and filtering the pitchers on tonight’s eight game slate by P/$, you have to go six pitchers deep on DraftKings and to the latter half of the board on FanDuel before finding a pitcher costing $9K or more. It seems like this may be a great slate to embrace more risk and pay down for pitching. The top projected value on either site by a pretty decent margin is David Peterson, who has a 27.6 K% and 51.2 GB%, but has trouble finding the plate (10.1 BB%). These control issues have limited him to just one six inning start over his last eight. A 3.99 xERA is his only estimator more than a quarter of a run removed from a 3.47 ERA. However, he has a high upside matchup (Cubs 95 wRC+, 23.7 K% vs LHP) in a great home park with some cooler, more pitcher friendly weather expected. Peterson has the potential to hurt himself, but also to throw a gem against a high strikeout, low walk projected lineup via PlateIQ. In fact, Peterson projects very similarly to Corbin Burnes overall.

Following Peterson’s value projection on FanDuel may be a number of pitchers you’re not considering using on a single pitcher site (Patrick Corbin against the O’s, Michael Grove in Arizona, Drew Smyly against the Mets and Brayan Bello facing the Yankees) until you get to another pair of $8K arms in Dane Dunning and Sonny Gray. Dunning has a 16.6 K% with a 6.3 K-BB% over his last 16 starts. Considering that this is now the majority of his season, he’s up to a 4.39 ERA that’s within a quarter run of all estimators. He’s completed six innings just three times since the start of July and has allowed 11 barrels (12.3%) over his last five starts. This is certainly a concern and Texas has begun opening the roof with the weather cooling off, which generally means a more positive run environment in that park. However, the A’s have just an 83 wRC+ and 23.7 K% vs RHP. Dunning is the second best projected DraftKings value for exactly $7K.

Gray has just eight Quality Starts this year, but three of them have come in his last five outings with his strikeout rate jumping to 27.1% over that span as well. He may have just an average ground ball rate for the first time in his career, but with a healthy 23.9 K%, 18.0 IFFB% and 5.0% Barrels/BBE, estimators still range from a 3.43 FIP to a 3.78 SIERA. Aside from workload concerns decreasing recently, the matchup is strong (Royals 88 wRC+, 22.3 K% and 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP, 49 wRC+ and 2.1 HR/FB last seven days). A few hundred dollars cheaper on DraftKings, Gray projects as the fifth best value and seems like a strong pivot from higher priced arms.

One last standalone pitcher who may be more interesting than his middling projection on a small slate, Ross Stripling has a 27 K% (13.6 SwStr%) over his last five starts, all Quality Starts. With elite control (4.2 BB%), he’s up to a 17.6 K-BB% with non-FIP estimators ranging tightly from a 3.44 xERA to a 3.61 SIERA. With just 10 of 26 barrels (7.9%) leaving the yard, his 3.03 ERA aligns well with a 3.09 FIP. The Rays offer some upside with a 102 wRC+, but 23.8 K% vs RHP. As with most domes, the run environment in Toronto increases with the roof open, so be sure to search Twitter for that information later.

Bello has struck out 21 of 84 batters with a 14.2 SwStr% and half his contact on the ground in his most recent stint with the big league club, though he’s also walked nine. He is a well-regarded prospect (50 Future Value grade) with both a lot of strikeouts (33.8%) and walks (10%) at AAA this year. The park and weather are terrible for pitching tonight and the Yankees have a 113 wRC+ vs RHP and 131 wRC+ over the last week, but he could be interesting for just $6.6K in an SP2 spot, if he can get around Judge.

Great Park & Weather, Tough Matchup for Tonight's Top Arm

An eight game Wednesday night slate includes one pitcher above $10K on both sites, one pitcher barely reaching that price point on DraftKings only and one more exceeding $9K on both. The 14 Giants Corbin Burnes struck out last time out not only represents a season high, but the first time he’d even punched out more than six in his last six starts. Pushing his strikeout rate back up to 31.3% (24.6 K-BB%) it was also his first Quality Start in five attempts. His 2.93 ERA is very much in line with a 2.94 SIERA and 2.94 xFIP. Burnes is in a tough spot tonight (Cardinals 120 wRC+ at home, 111 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP) in a great park with pitcher friendly weather expected. While he’s dominated the Cardinals twice this year, they have been the second best offense in the league against cutters since the break (1.77 wFC/C). Burnes throws his 56.2% of the time (-1.2 RV/100, 28.5 Whiff%). Burnes is your top projected pitcher on this slate, but only a middling projected value with a price tag of $10.5K or higher. Check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out if there are any other pitchers worth paying up for.

This Offense Makes a Clean Sweep of Stacking Projections

With a 4.98 team run total that ties for the top mark on the board, the Chicago White Sox currently project to be the most popular stack on the board (although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), only reaching a double digit ownership projection on DraftKings though and just barely. There’s really very little separation from the board with extremely high priced pitching likely being the largest priority without any offenses above five implied runs. The White Sox are also projected to smash the board most often and here there is a bit more separation, more so on FanDuel with one fewer game. Chad Kuhl has neither gone beyond five innings, nor allowed fewer than three runs in nine straight starts, over which he has a 9.02 ERA/8.16 FIP/5.42 xFIP. The White Sox also project as the top value stack (again by a larger margin on FanDuel). It’s a clean sweep…which makes you wonder why the White Sox aren’t projected to be even more popular. For more on Tuesday’s top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Projections Suggest This Lineup is Loaded with Value Against Struggling Southpaw

You’re paying for deGrom (or even Cole) and you need value bats. Even if you’re on DraftKings, no matter who your SP2 is. Projections suggest you can find a lot of those in Minnesota tonight, mostly on the home team side. Kris Bubic has both struck out and walked eight of his last 90 batters. With just a 6.8 K-BB% and 45.7% 95+ mph EV, his 5.40 ERA is probably right where it’s supposed to be and matches his DRA exactly. RHBs have a .331 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against Bubic this year. Four of the top six projected values on FanDuel are Twins, starting with the top projected bat on the board, Gio Urshela (101 wRC+, .144 ISO vs LHP this season). He is followed by Gary Sanchez (72 wRC+, .144 ISO), Kyle Garlick (148 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Nick Gordon (81 wRC+) all for $2.2K or less. You may notice that Gordon is a weak hitting lefty, but batters from that side exceed a .440 wOBA and xwOBA against Bubic this year. Garlick ($2.3K) is also the top projected DraftKings value, while a min-priced Gilberto Celestino (61 wRC+) is top 10 as well.

FanDuel projections also include a trio of White Sox among the top 10 values, including Gavin Sheets (110 wRC+, .182 ISO), who doubles as a top projected bat and value for $2.6K on both sites. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .346 and .365 wOBA and xwOBA against Chard Kuhl this season. Ever since shutting out the Dodgers on three hits at Coors, he has neither gone beyond five innings, nor allowed fewer than three runs in nine straight starts, over which he has a 9.02 ERA/8.16 FIP/5.42 xFIP. Yoan Moncada (58 wRC+) and Yasmani Grandal (43 wRC+) project much better than this year’s numbers and as top 10 FanDuel values for $2.5K or less as well.

DraftKings projections also like the minimum price tags on Alex Call (155 wRC+, .259 ISO) and C.J. Abrams (96 wRC+) against Dean Kremer (LHBs .271 wOBA, .310 xwOBA – RHBs .326 wOBA, .335 xwOBA). The same is true for Chad Pinder (106 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Nick Allen (82 wRC+) against Cole Ragans, who has walked more batters than he’s struck out and surrendered a .371 wOBA and .351 xwOBA to LHBs.

Two Thumpers Projected to Punish Hard Contact Prone Pitcher in Great Park

Not a single team on a 10 game slate (we still don’t have information for the second game of the Tampa Bay/Toronto double-header, available only on DraftKings), we don’t have a single offense exceeding five implied runs, although the Mets (Adrian Sampson), White Sox (Chad Kuhl) and Twins (Kris Bubic) all come very close, while four more offenses also exceed four and a half team run totals. The Yankee lineup in general may be struggling, but Aaron Judge (212 wRC+, .380 ISO vs RHP this season) is not and he is the top projected bat on the board tonight at Fenway, against Nick Pivetta. Since striking out nine of 25 Orioles with a single walk, Pivetta has struck out just one more batter than he’s walked over his last three starts. He can occasionally throw a gem and the 13.5 K-BB% isn’t even bad, but opponents have a 90.4 mph EV with only 38.3% of the contact on the ground against him. He’s completed six innings in just two of his last 12 starts and all estimators are within half a run of his 4.29 ERA with only a 3.91 DRA below three. RHBs have a .306 wOBA, but .325 xwOBA against him. Giancarlo Stanton (131 wRC+, .278 ISO) is the third best projected bat on the board.

Eloy Jimenez (158 wRC+, .194 ISO) is the bat projections sandwich in between the two Yankees. Ever since shutting out the Dodgers on three hits at Coors (yes, that is a thing that really happened this year), Chad Kuhl has neither gone beyond five innings, nor allowed fewer than three runs in nine straight starts, over which he has a 9.02 ERA/8.16 FIP/5.42 xFIP. On the season, he has just a 7.9 K-BB%, 90.6 mph EV and no estimators below 4.87 (SIERA & xFIP). To make matters worse, his only positively graded pitch this year is a slider (36.4%, -1 RV/100, 35.9 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .275), while the White Sox are the second best slider hitting team (1.12 wSL/C) since the break. That may be why we find three White Sox projecting among the top 10 tonight with Jose Abreu (138 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Gavin Sheets (110 wRC+, .182 ISO) slightly behind Jimenez. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .346 and .365 wOBA and xwOBA against Kuhl this year.

We also find a pair of Orioles atop the lineup projecting as top 10 bats against Corey Abbott in Washington. About two-thirds of Abbott’s work this season has been as a starter. He’s missed bats at an average rate (21.3 K%) with a respectable 11.7 K-BB%, but also has a 90.5 Z-Contact%, 26.4 GB% and has allowed 12.0% Barrels/BBE. A .202 BABIP and 86.8 mph EV are responsible for a 4.22 ERA being below all estimators with one exception. A 3.34 xERA that makes absolutely not sense considering all the barrels. LHBs have a .366 wOBA, but more average .307 xwOBA against him in a small sample. Projections believe Cedric Mullins (131 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Adley Rutschman (151 wRC+, .228 ISO) may do some damage.

Two Viable Mid-Range Arms

Let’s start with the notion that you’re jamming Jacob deGrom into your daily fantasy lineup if you can find any way to do so. With that said, six of the top eight currently projected top values for less than $11K on FanDuel are difficult to justify on a single pitcher site. The seventh best projected value, Joey Ryan ($8.9K) may be the most interesting in a home matchup against the Royals (89 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP, 55 wRC+, 4.4 HR/FB last seven days). While Ryan had been giving up some runs recently, mostly due to 13.3% Barrels/BBE over his last eight starts, last time out was the first time he’d combined poor run prevention with a poor strikeout to walk ratio in quite some time. In fact, in the eight starts going into his last one, he’d had a 22.5 K-BB%, but 5.44 ERA. You would think that even his 16.6 K-BB% on the season would produce estimators below four, but not so with a 26.6 GB%. In fact, a 3.83 xERA with 9.4% Barrels/BBE is his only estimator below his 4.05 ERA. It’s an odd profile, but estimators have issues with extreme fly ball pitchers. An offense struggling to hit the ball out may be just the solution he’s looking for right now. For $800 less, Ryan projects as the fifth best DraftKings value, but may still be a tough SP2 fit behind a $12K pitcher.

Projecting as either the eighth or ninth best value, Jordan Montgomery has lowered his swinging strike rate (10.4%) and increased his strikeout rate (23.2%) since the trade (his walk rate has remained 4.9%). No, it doesn’t make any sense, but it works and is within a supportable range. The one thing that does make sense is the Cardinals encouraging more ground balls (56%) with one of the best defenses in baseball behind him (15 Runs Prevented), especially in the infield. Montgomery has a 1.45 ERA/2.29 FIP/3.05 xFIP since joining St Louis. He’s already dominated a Milwaukee offense that struggles against LHP (86 wRC+, 26.0 K%), striking out eight of 24 over six shutout innings in his second National League start.

If you need to punt your SP2 behind deGrom, the only attractive thing about Chad Kuhl is that he costs less than $6K against a below average offense (White Sox 95 wRC+ vs RHP) outside Coors. Ever since shutting out the Dodgers on three hits at Coors (yes, that is a thing that really happened this year), he has neither gone beyond five innings, nor allowed fewer than three runs in nine straight starts, over which he has a 9.02 ERA/8.16 FIP/5.42 xFIP. Ken Waldichuk is a highly regarded prospect just slightly more expensive, but the Rangers have smashed LHP (116 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 16.6 HR/FB). Kris Bubic has both struck out and walked eight of his last 90 batters. With just a 6.8 K-BB% and 45.7% 95+ mph EV, his 5.40 ERA is probably right where it’s supposed to be and matches his DRA exactly. You could also wait to see who the Rays and Blue Jays send out for Game Two, if it doesn’t end up being a double bullpen game.

This Pitcher Has Historically Strong Projections Tonight

FanDuel is offering a 10 game Tuesday night slate, while DraftKings has again made the decision to include the second game of a double header in Toronto that does not have confirmed pitchers as of this writing. This is still a slate that includes five pitchers at $10K or above and another reaching $9K on both sites. Costing within $200 of $12K on either site, Jacob deGrom struck out “only” eight of 24 Pirates last time out with his lowest swinging strike rate of the year (17.6%). He’s allowed a total of 20 hits and five barrels (5.9%) over 43.1 innings with a 38.8 K-BB%. He has five straight Quality Starts and two seven inning outings with less than 95 pitches in a row, while his 1.66 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators with the exception of a 2.40 DRA that must be out of it’s mind. The Cub (98 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP) are the second worst offense against fastballs since the break (-0.76 wFB/C). Let’s see how they do against 100 mph at the letters. The weather is projected to be hitter friendly at Citi Field tonight, but who cares? DeGrom will eventually have an off start, but who wants to actually bet on that happening? His overall raw point total and value projections are through the roof tonight, far beyond any other pitcher on the board…on the season? Ever? The Cubs have a real full game run total of 1.88 tonight. For much more on tonight’s most expensive pitchers, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Top Team Run Totals Not Projected to Smash the Slate Most Often

Current projections don’t see any stack being overwhelmingly popular on a six or seven game slate, but with few viable pitching choices and nearly all of them at the top of the board, value is expected to trump raw numbers with Cincinnati projected to be slightly more popular than Pittsburgh on DraftKings and the Dodgers are Fanduel. However, despite just the third highest implied run line, the Reds are also projected to smash the slate about 50% more often than any other team (although projections are fluid and certainly subject to change). The team that projects to smash the slate second most often isn’t even one of the four offenses exceeding four and a half implied runs either. More on why that may be the case in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog. The Reds project to be the top value stack on DraftKings tonight, by a decent margin over Pittsburgh, but that’s flip flopped on FanDuel.

Some Top Offenses Projecting For Top Value Too

Considering the quality pitching is basically all at the top of the board tonight, players are going to need some salary savers for their lineups tonight. The good news, depending on your point of view, is that some of the top projecting bats are also top projecting values. Jake Fraley (142 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP this season) is not only the top projected bat on the board, but a top five projected value on either site for $3K or less against Bryse Wilson (LHBs .415 wOBA, .393 xwOBA). TJ Friedl (96 wRC+, .192 ISO) also doubles as a top projected bat and value on both sites. With RHBs owning a healthy .332 wOBA and .341 xwOBA against Wilson as well, Donovan Solano (95 wRC+) is your top projecting FanDuel value ($2.1K) and Aristides Aquino (80 wRC+, .213 ISO) is your top projecting DraftKings value ($2.0), while also being a top 10 projected value on FD ($2.7K).

So that’s basically it. Stack Reds with expensive pitching. However, if you’re worried about ownership on a small slate, projections from either site also suggest some value in the visiting lineup in Cincinnati as well. Mike Minor has just a 12.9 K% over his last five starts and is down to a 9.3 K-BB% for the season. He doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact (34.6%), but with just a 36.1 GB%, 8.6% of his contact have still been barrels and pitching in Cincinnati hasn’t helped with 20 of 26 barrels leaving the yard (15.3 HR/FB). His 5.70 ERA nearly matches his 5.75 FIP, though remaining estimators range all the way from a 4.75 SIERA to a 6.16 DRA. RHBs have a .402 wOBA and still fairly strong .348 xwOBA against Minor and the park likely plays into that. However, it’s LH Jack Suwinski (52 wRC+, .182 ISO) as the only Pirate projecting as a top 10 value on both DraftKings and FanDuel for $2.3K or less. LHBs are below a .290 wOBA and xwOBA against Minor this year, so this is all predicated on him getting a hold of one. For less than $2.5K, Michael Chavis (105 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Rodolfo Castro (113 wRC+. 273 ISO) project as top DraftKings values, while Bryan Reynolds (106 wRC+, .152 ISO) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (130 wRC+, .165 ISO) project as top FanDuel values for $2.5K or less.

FanDuel projections also suggest adding Tyler Naquin (125 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Daniel Vogelbach (142 wRC+, .239 ISO) to your Mets stacks for $2.2K each to go with the top projected bats of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor against Javier Assad, who has faced just 21 LHBs, but with three extra base hits and a wOBA and xwOBA above .400.

Projections Love This Park and Matchup

On a small slate that doesn’t include, but does include two terrible offenses in Cincinnati and no other extremely positive run environments, we still find two teams exceeding five implied runs in the Dodgers (5.36) and Mets (5.21) with the Reds (4.79) and Blue Jays (4.65) also separating themselves from the rest of the board by nearly half a run. Early projections like Cincinnati bats the most though with the top three projecting bats on both sites stemming from the home team lineup in a great park, facing off against Bryse Wilson, who has just two outings all season with more than four strikeouts with a high of six. He doesn’t walk many (5.6%), but with just a 14.6 K% and 91.7 mph EV (45.3% 95+ mph EV). Wilson doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half, though all are below his 6.11 ERA (61.3 LOB%). LHBs have a .415 wOBA and .393 xwOBA against him this season, which is a big reason why Jake Fraley (142 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP this season) is currently the top projected bat on the board and TJ Friedl (96 wRC+, .192 ISO) is third. Slotting in between them with the second best projection on the board is Jonathan India (101 wRC+, .170 ISO). RHBs have a healthy .332 wOBA and .341 xwOBA against Wilson too.

The Dodgers and Mets both feature a pair of top 10 projected bats too against a pair of rookie pitchers with fewer than five combined major league starts. A marginally rated prospect with a 45+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) and mere 13.7 K-BB% at AAA this season (136 IP), Ryne Nelson struck out seven of the 25 Padres he faced without a walk or run allowed in his major league debut. He allowed just four hits without a barrel, despite just five ground balls, five line drives and a 91.2 mph EV. This will obviously be a much stiffer test for him. Projections call for an ERA in the mid-fours. Mookie Betts (139 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (168 wRC+, .211 ISO) are your top projecting bats.

Javier Assad has struck out just 12 of 67 batters with seven walks and two home runs on three barrels (6.3%). The 25 year-old, who is not a strongly regarded prospect, did have a 20.1 K-BB% over 36.2 AAA innings, but a more marginal 15.4 K-BB% over 74.1 AA innings and projects for a major league ERA around five. In his small sample of work, LHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while RHBs are below .300, which might suggest there will be some type of standard split here. None the less, Pete Alonso (139 wRC+, .244 ISO) is your top projecting Met, but is followed by Francisco Lindor (131 wRC+, .178 ISO).

Embrace the Volatility if Paying Down for Pitching

With both the top projected pitchers and values being some of the most expensive arms tonight, it’s really difficult to find a trustable arm for less than $10K tonight, specifically on FanDuel, where the top five projected values fills out with Mike Minor, Jose Berrios and Alex Cobb third through fifth. Minor has a great matchup against the Pirates (80w RC+, 26.4 K% vs LHP), but has just a 12.9 K% over his last five starts and is down to a 9.3 K-BB% for the season. He doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact (34.6%), but with just a 36.1 GB%, 8.6% of his contact have still been barrels and pitching in Cincinnati hasn’t helped with 20 of 26 barrels leaving the yard (15.3 HR/FB). His 5.70 ERA nearly matches his 5.75 FIP, though remaining estimators range all the way from a 4.75 SIERA to a 6.16 DRA. You’re not trusting him on a single pitcher site, but he does cost less than $7.5K on DraftKings, where you’ll need and SP2.

Berrios remains as volatile as ever with 15 of 23 strikeouts over his last six starts coming in back to back outings and two or fewer in three of them. With just a 20.3 K% (9.5 SwStr%), he’s allowed 50 barrels (10.9%) and 28 home runs (15.5 HR/FB). While most estimators are well below his 5.23 ERA (but still above four), it aligns fairly well with a 5.38 xERA that includes his contact profile. The Rays strike out a lot against RHP (24.1% with a 103 wRC+), but have smashed fastballs and especially curveballs (0.92 wCB/C) since the break, which is bad news for Berrios, considering that comprises more than 85% of his arsenal. He’s somehow only faced the Rays once this season, striking out just three. The volatility likely makes him a more interesting play than Minor, but again, maybe not someone you want to trust on a single pitcher site unless you’re extremely risk embracing.

The strikeouts have been a bit inconsistent, but Cobb’s 3.68 ERA is still above estimators ranging from a 2.91 xFIP to a 3.19 SIERA. It’s odd that you see those particular two bookending a pitcher, though it’s likely due to the 60.9 GB%. Cobb has a 17.2 K-BB%, while allowed just 4.0% Barrels/BBE with a 29.8 Z-O-Swing%. You can probably say that Cobb has been less volatile than Berrios at least, but his matchup is highly volatile. The Braves have a 105 wRC+, 25.3 K% and 16.1 HR/FB vs RHP and Cobb is the most expensive of the three pitchers ($8K DK, $9K FD).

Either Jon Gray ($8.8K) or Braxton Garrett ($7.1K) could be options (only available on DraftKings) in a great park if they weren’t both returning from the IL with a combined 30 batters faced in rehab starts. Both will likely be limited after four week plus absences and the Rangers have been quite good against LHP (117 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 16.7 HR/FB).

Tyler Anderson is the only other name that comes to mind, but he’s not all that cheap ($8K+) and your paying for workload and contact management(84.9 mph EV, 5.2% Barrels/BBE, 29.1% 95+ mph EV) , rather than strikeouts (15.4 K% last 14 starts), which is always a riskier proposition. The changeup (32.1%, -1.7 RV/100, 37 Whiff%) and cutter (22%, -1.1 RV/100, wOBA and xwOBA below .275) have been weapons, but are also two pitches the Diamondbacks have pulverized since the break (1.93 wCH/C, 1.4 wFC/C). The Diamondbacks may have just a 909 wRC+ and 23.3 K% vs LHP, but have some young exciting bats in the lineup these days.

This Top Pitcher's Curveball Should Be a Weapon Tonight

With both sites starting a half hour earlier tonight, the only difference is DraftKings including the second game on the double-header in Miami, making it a seven game slate, though with both pitchers coming directly from the IL with little in the way of rehab starts, they’ll likely both have workload limitations. Considering the remaining 12 pitchers, 25% of them reach $10K tonight on one site or the other with no other pitcher exceeding $9K on both sites. Most expensively on either site, it’s 23 consecutive Quality Starts for Framber Valdez, who’s strikeout rate is up to 23.1% after punching out 11 last time out. He’s the rare pitcher who consistently works deep into games despite marginal control (8.6 BB%). This is because he generates two-thirds (66.7%) of his contact on the ground, allowing just 4.9% Barrels/BBE and erasing a lot of those walks. His 2.64 ERA is below estimators ranging from 3.12 xFIP to a 3.48 DRA, but he plays in front of one of the best defenses in the league (21 Runs Prevented) and his .272 BABIP is actually higher than what the defense allows (.265). While the Tigers have been better against LHP (103 wRC+, 21.9 K%), it comes with no power (7.7 HR/FB) and they are the worst offense in baseball against curveballs since the break (-1.41 wCB/C). Valdez has a good one (28%, -1.2 RV/100, 44.6 Whiff%, .220 wOBA, .212 xwOBA). Valdez is currently the third best projecting pitcher on the board and a middle of the board projected value. For more on tonight’s top two projecting pitchers and values, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Josh Harrison (illness) scratched Sunday

Josh Harrison (illness) scratched Sunday

The start of Guardians-Twins will be delayed Friday due to rain

Game update: The start of Guardians-Twins will be delayed Friday due to rain