DFS Alerts
Cheap Bats in Some Top Lineups Projecting for Strong Value
Whether you filter LineupHQ by total Ftps or P/$ using PlateIQ projections, it’s tough to get away from L.A. bats tonight. While Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and even Taylor Ward project at the top of the board in the former category, stacks can be made easier with the former category. Costing less than $2.5K on either site, Jo Adell (53 wRC+, .118 ISO vs LHP this year) projects as a top three value. He’s just one of four top projected values in this lineup on either site against Tyler Alexander (RHBs .347 wOBA, .346 xwOBA). On Fanduel, David Fletcher (109 wRC+), Luis Rengifo (155 wRC+, .235 ISO) and Max Stassi (37 wRC+) all cost $2.5K or less as well. In that same price range on DraftKings is Andrew Velasquez (61 wRC+), while Ward (120 wRC+, .132 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value for just $3.1K.
On the other side of that affair, the Tigers have been a bit better against LHP (99 wRC+), but are just as cheap. With a 25.8 K% over his last five starts, Jose Suarez is up to a 22.6 K% on the season and even has his second and third Quality Starts of the season in that span. Issues in his contact profile (9.1% Barrels/BBE) have been dissipating over his last six starts (5.3% Barrel/BBE), leaving a 4.10 ERA within one-third of a run of all estimators. RHBs have a .316 wOBA and .307 xwOBA against him, while LHBs have a .306 wOBA and .293 xwOBA, exhibiting a very small split. Victor Reyes (87 wRC+), Kerry Carpenter (-29 wRC+ in limited opportunities) and Spencer Torkelson (63 wRC+) all project as top DraftKings values for $2.5K or less.
Despite two quality pitchers going for the Dodgers and Giants tonight, FanDuel projection favor a pair of bats from either side as potential top values tonight. Joey Gallo (105 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Max Muncy (100 wRC+. .174 ISO) both cost less than $2.5K against Logan Webb (LHBs .316 wOBA, .302 xwOBA. Austin Slater (133 wRC+, .149 ISO) and J.D. Davis (128 wRC+, .171 ISO) are in the same range against Andrew Heaney (RHBs .307 wOBA, .268 xwOBA).
L.A. Bats Projecting Strongly Tonight
On a small six game holiday slate, no offense reaches five implied runs tonight, but a quarter of the board exceeds four and a half. The top projecting bat on the board is Mike Trout (183 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP this season) in the most power friendly park on the slate. With just a 12.8 K% and 10.6% Barrels/BBE, Tyler Alexander’s 4.76 ERA aligns well with his 4.77 xFIP, but is below all estimators, including an xERA above five. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within four points of .350 against him this season. LHBs have just a .287 wOBA, but higher xwOBA than RHBs (.359). Thus, Shohei Ohtani (118 wRC+, .195 ISO) projects as a top three bat as well. Taylor Ward (120 wRC+, .132 ISO) borders on the top 10 as well, despite his lack of power with the platoon advantage and mere 78 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Trout has shown no ill effects from the back issue that kept him out for most the summer. He has a 146 wRC+ since returning. The Angels do top the board with a 4.92 team turn total.
A pair of Houston Astros (4.52) also project as top five bats on either site despite facing the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. With at least five runs in two of his last five outings (both against the Astros ironically), including last time out, a lot of people believe this is finally regression punishing Martin Perez. While his 7.9 HR/FB is likely unsustainable, more than half (11) of his 18 barrels (3.9%) have gone out and he’s also working with a career high 21.7 K% with the caveat being that his 8.4 SwStr% is barely above his career rate (8.2%). However, an average strikeout rate with a great contact profile (51.8 GB%, 34.5% 95+ mph EV) projects a 3.43 ERA that’s only a half run higher than his 2.89 ERA and 4.17 DRA is his only estimator above four. One area of concerns is a 12.2 BB% over his last eight starts, but the strikeout rate is up to 25.3% over this span, while only failing to go six innings three times. Perez has exhibited a sizeable split with RHBs owning a .293 wOBA and .301 xwOBA against him, but LHBs just a .270 wOBA and .234 xwOBA. None the less, Yordan Alvarez smashes same-handed pitching (163 wRC+, .260 ISO) and projects less than a point above Jose Altuve (214 wRC+, .368 ISO).
The Dodgers (4.84) are the only other offense projecting multiple top 10 bats. Only three of the 12 runs Logan Webb has allowed over his last three starts have been earned At -25 Runs Prevented, the Giants do have one of the worst defenses in the league. He has struck out 13 of his last 44 batters after a start where he struck out no Diamondbacks. With a strikeout rate sitting barely above one-fifth of batters faced (20.3%), he’s relied on good control (6.8 BB%) and a strong contact profile (58.5 GB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE) to sustain estimators ranging from a 3.19 FIP to a 3.60 SIERA and xERA. With 13 unearned runs on the season, he carries just a 2.89 ERA. LHBs have a .316 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him, while RHBs have a .254 wOBA, but .290 xwOBA. On a small slate, Freddie Freeman (159 wRC+, .191 ISO), Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .270 ISO) and Trea Turner (123 wRC+, .145 ISO) project near the top of the board.
Perhaps the Best Pitcher on the Slate for Less than $9.5K
The top projecting FanDuel values are Andrew Heaney and Blake Snell, but there are also a few cheaper pitchers who project well enough to be considered on a single pitcher site too. Starting with the pitcher who is barely the fourth best projecting pitcher on the slate, a point or less removed from third best, Lance Lynn is finally starting to see the efforts of his underlying performance rewarded with a total of five earned runs over his last four starts and just two outs shy of eight straight starts with at least six innings pitched. He has a 27.6 K-BB% over his last nine starts (22.0% on the year) with just four walks over that span (13 on the year). Yet he still has a 4.70 season ERA because he’s only stranded two-thirds of his runners and 16 of his 21 barrels (8.6%) have left the yard for a 17.6 HR/FB. Non-FIP estimators are all below four, ranging as low as a 3.17 SIERA. Lynn’s best pitch has been a cutter he’s utilized 22.9% of the time for just a -0.2 RV/100 and .340 wOBA, but 26.7 Whiff% and .305 xwOBA. The Mariners (105 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP) are a bottom half of the league offense against this pitch (-0.35 wFC/C). Seattle also played a long Sunday game, which included several hours or rain delay, on a travel day with an earlier start in Seattle tonight. Lynn projects as your fourth best FanDuel value for $9.3K, but second best on DraftKings for $1.4K less.
With a 25.8 K% over his last five starts, Jose Suarez is up to a 22.6 K% on the season and even has his second and third Quality Starts of the season in that span. Issues in his contact profile (9.1% Barrels/BBE) have been dissipating over his last six starts (5.3% Barrel/BBE), leaving a 4.10 ERA within one-third of a run of all estimators. The Tigers are better against LHP, but even that has been fading recently (99 wRC+, 22.0 K%, 6.6 HR/FB). Suarez projects as tonight’s fifth best arm and third best value for $8K or less on either site.
Hunter Brown is the top ranked Houston prospect by Fangraphs with a 50 Future Value grade. Triple digit velocity capable, Brown adds a mid-90s slider and low-80s curve, though does still have some control issues that have some projecting a possible bullpen home rather than a rotation one. In fact, nine of his 23 appearances have come out of the pen at AAA this year, where he’s struck out 31.5% of batters with a 10.6 BB%. He starts his major league career in a favorable matchup (Rangers 96 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP) in a negative run environment, assuming roof closure in Houston. With a $2.5K discrepancy in cost, Brown projects as the fifth best FanDuel value, but best DraftKings value and a perfect SP2 arm for just $5.2K.
Tonight’s other debuting pitcher, twenty-four year old Ryne Nelson is the Diamondbacks’ sixth rated prospect with a 45+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs). Nelson has bat missing high heat and utilizes it often with a curveball and slider to keep batters off balance, but has struck out just 21.6% of AAA batters through 26 starts this year, which is more than a 10 point drop off from AA in 2021. He’s in a tougher spot (Padres 102 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP, but even better than that since the trade deadline). San Diego is a firmly negative run environment, though with some potentially hitter friendly weather with an earlier start time. Only available on DraftKings Nelson is a reasonable SP2 choice for just $5K, projecting as the fifth best point per dollar pitching value.
A Small Holiday Evening Slate Features Some Over-priced Pitching
A small six game holiday evening slate still includes four $10K pitchers, along with another exceeding $9K on both sites, which is essentially half the slate, especially when you consider the two pitchers making their major league debuts tonight, who are not both available on both sites. The most expensive pitcher on the board is…Triston McKenzie??? Costing $10.7K on DraftKings and $200 less on FanDuel, striking out 25 of his last 70 batters, McKenzie is up to a 25.2 K% (18.7 K-BB%) with the only issue lying in his contact profile (31.6 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 10.3% Barrels/BBE). With a .231 BABIP and 80.2 mph EV, his 3.18 ERA is more than a quarter of a run below all estimators, including a matching 3.91 FIP and xFIP. McKenzie’s last outing was only the third time he’s failed to complete six innings in 21 starrts. Kansas City is one of just two positive run environments on the slate (assuming a roof closure in Houston), but the home team has just a 91 wRC+, 22.2 K% and 8.7 HR/FB vs RHP. McKenzie is tonight’s third best projecting pitcher, but just a middle of the board projected value.
Most expensively on FanDuel ($10.6K), with at least five runs in two of his last five outings (both against the Astros ironically), including last time out, a lot of people believe this is finally regression punishing Martin Perez. While his 7.9 HR/FB is likely unsustainable, more than half (11) of his 18 barrels (3.9%) have gone out and he’s also working with a career high 21.7 K% with the caveat being that his 8.4 SwStr% is barely above his career rate (8.2%). However, an average strikeout rate with a great contact profile (51.8 GB%, 34.5% 95+ mph EV) projects a 3.43 xERA that’s only a half run higher than his 2.89 ERA and 4.17 DRA is his only estimator above four. One area of concerns is a 12.2 BB% over his last eight starts, but the strikeout rate is up to 25.3% over this span, while only failing to go six innings three times. This price tag is absurd in Houston (118 wRC+, 17.9 K%, 13.0 HR/FB vs LHP). Perez projects in the bottom quartile of pitchers tonight and as a bottom two value, even for $2.5K less on DraftKings. He may be a bit better than people want to believe, but not nearly as good as daily fantasy sites are suggesting at these prices.
Blake Snell walked more than two batters for the first time in eight starts last time out and nearly has his walk rate (10.2%) in single digits, while sustaining a 30.8 K%. He’s even completed six innings in four of his last seven. Sustaining a 20 point gap between his strikeout and walk rates results in estimators all more than one-third of a run below his 3.87 ERA, but above three. The .324 BABIP has been a killer. In a firmly negative run environment, though with potentially hitter friendly weather, he faces an offense with just a 91 wRC+ and 23.1 K% vs LHP, but one that has injected some new blood lately (125 wRC+, 20.2 K% last seven days). Snell is tonight’s top projecting pitcher and second best projected value by a smidgen on FanDuel, though he ties for just the fourth best value projection on DraftKings, despite being $100 cheaper. This is probably where we should the bulk of the ownership to go tonight, but check back later for that.
A board high 20.9 CStr% affords Brady Singer a 25.1 K% with just a 9.7 SwStr%. It’s within a range of supportable outcomes, but just barely. This has really been the crux of his improvement (19.0 K-BB%), as his ground ball rate is down (47.1%) and his exit velocity and barrels are up (89.5 mph, 8.4%). He has generated 56% of his contact on the ground over his last three starts though. The White Sox snapped a string of nine straight starts with at least six innings last time out. A 3.82 ERA is the only estimator more than one-third of a run removed from his 3.33 ERA. The positive run environment is less a problem than the matchup here. The Guardians have a 102 wRC+ and 17.5 K% vs RHP. They have just a 55 wRC+ over the last week, but with just a 15.9 K% (1.8 HR/FB). Singer projects as a middle of the board, but as a bottom quartile value even at his $1.5K lower price on DraftKings.
Andrew Heaney has struck out 28 of his last 68 and 35.4% of batters through 10 starts this season. The Dodgers haven’t solved his contact profile issues (90.3 mph EV, 10.1% Barrels/BBE), but with a 29.3 K-BB%, nobody much cares. While all estimators are more than one-third of a run above his 2.12 ERA, even his FIP only rises to 3.29. The Dodgers have only allowed him to hit 90 pitches once and six innings twice. However, on this board, against the Giants (111 wRC+, but 23.9 K% vs LHP) Heaney still projects as the second best arm on the board and they top FanDuel value, where he’s actually $200 cheaper than on DraftKings (sixth best projected value).
Max Kepler scratched Monday
Max Kepler scratched Monday
Mets-Pirates postponed Monday due to rain
Game Update: Mets-Pirates postponed Monday due to rain
The start of Cubs-Cardinals will be delayed Sunday due to rain
Game update: The start of Cubs-Cardinals will be delayed Sunday due to rain
As reported by: Derrick Goold via Twitter
Martín Maldonado scratched Sunday
Martín Maldonado scratched Sunday
As reported by: Chandler Rome via Twitter Garrett Cooper (personal) scratched Saturday
Garrett Cooper (personal) scratched Saturday
As reported by: Jordan McPherson via Twitter Yordan Alvarez (hand) scratched Friday
Yordan Alvarez (hand) scratched Friday
As reported by: Chandler Rome via Twitter Two Offenses Feature Multiple Top Projected Bats
The Boston Red Sox are the lone offense exceeding five implied runs on a 13 game Friday night slate (5.17). That’s what a matchup at Fenway against Dallas Keuchel in 2022 gets you, even if the forecast currently appears to be slightly pitcher friendly. Boston also does not separate themselves much from the rest of the board with the Cardinals at 4.97 implied runs, but then only three other offenses reaching four and a half run team totals. We have a lot of good pitchers facing top offenses tonight and that includes the Yankees (Jeffrey Springs), Dodgers (Yu Darvish) and Braves (Sandy Alcantara) all lower than you’d normally see them on this board.
Despite the lack of separation, Boston bats do dominate projections tonight. Each of the top three projected bats on DraftKings and five of the top 10 are Red Sox (four of the top 10 on FanDuel). Rafael Devers (109 wRC+, .174 ISO vs LHP this season) and Tommy Pham (138 wRC+, .183 ISO) are the top projected bats on both sites. Keuchel struck out a single batter, walked a single batter and allowed a single home run, but seven total runs in his first start for the Rangers. He has an 8.84 ERA over 13 starts this year and yet the Rangers are going to let him do it again (can’t be worse than their bullpen last night). In Boston no less. While he’s still generating half his contact on the ground (50.2%) and the .376 BABIP, 53.2 LOB% and 18.3 HR/FB are all likely to regress, a 4.80 xFIP is still his only estimator below five. Batters from either side of the plate exceed both a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. Xander Bogaerts (183 wRC+, .179 ISO), J.D. Martinez (158 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Alex Verdugo (109 wRC+, .123 ISO) are also top projecting bats tonight.
The Houston Astros (4.65) are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. It’s now hard to believe that Reid Detmers struck out just two in his no-hitter. He recognized he needed to be better and has a 29.5 K% over his last 10 starts, which has pushed his season rate up to 23.3%. That said, his 3.47 ERA is still well below estimators ranging narrowly from a 4.07 xERA to a 4.15 DRA (.255 BABIP, 78.8 LOB%), but sustaining a strikeout rate anywhere near 30% will solve that problem in a hurry. This is a concerning spot against the second best fastball hitting team in the league (0.55 wFB/C), as Detmers has thrown his 43.3% of the time with mixed results (-0.3 RV/100, 23.5 Whiff%, .347 wOBA, .362 xwOBA). With RHBs still owning a league average .310 wOBA, .319 xwOBA against Detmers this season, you can see why Jose Altuve (200 wRC+, .351 ISO) is a top projected bat tonight. Yordan Alvarez (165 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (91 wRC+, .172 ISO) might have a tougher time of it, but are still projected to do some damage. LHBs have just a .248 wOBA and .296 xwOBA against Detmers this season.
This Offense Projects to Smash the Slate Nearly Twice as Often as Any Other Team
The Red Sox are the top offense on the board at 5.17 implied runs, but not too far above the Cardinals (4.97). Current stacking projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) do suggest they’ll be the most popular stack, though by a wider margin on FanDuel, where they nearly double up the stack projecting to be the second most popular (Astros). The Red Sox may not separate themselves much from the rest of the board in terms of team run totals, but simulations project them to smash the slate almost twice as often as any other team, at a rate nearing 20%. A cheap Detroit lineup that has been league average (98 wRC+) against LHP doubles up the projected value of any other stack on DraftKings tonight, though several teams are just below 10% on FanDuel. The Red Sox do project as one of the top rated stacks tonight, but to find out who projects right there with them, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Lineup That Produces Much Better vs LHP Projects Several Top Values
The Detroit Tigers maybe the worst offense of the last 20 years…against RHP. Against LHP, they’re not entirely terrible (98 wRC+, 22.0 K%). They are also extremely cheap (minimum priced in a lot of spots) against a marginal pitcher. Daniel Lynch’s sophomore effort has been better than his first. The strikeout rate is only 20.7%, but with an 11.8 SwStr%. The contact profile still needs some help (90.7 mph EV, 45.8% 95+ mph EV) with his 4.73 xERA nearly matching his 4.70 ERA, while remaining estimators are within half a run. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. The top projected value on either site is a Detroit Tiger tonight. On FanDuel, it’s a min-priced Miguel Cabrera, who has basically been average against LHP (102 wRC+) in just over 100 PAs, but with absolutely no power (.011 ISO). Cabrera is the only Tiger among the top 10 projected FanDuel values though. On DraftKings, Victor Reyes (92 wRC+, .085 ISO) projects as the top value, joined Cabrera and Jeimer Candelario (81 wRC+, .186 ISO) all costing the minimum.
We also find a pair of KC bats projecting as top 10 values on both either site against Drew Hutchison in that game. He has registered a 12.9 K% over 12 starts without more than four in any of them. His 3.86 ERA is lower than his 4.36 FIP, which is lower than his 4.79 xFIP over this span with just six of 16 barrels leaving the yard. LHBs have spanked him for a .362 wOBA and slightly better .331 xwOBA this season. Michael Massey (118 wRC+) is a top projecting value on both sites for $2.1K or less. MJ Melendez (88 wRC+, .169 ISO) is less than $2.5K on FanDuel. Nick Pratto (93 wRC+, .255 ISO) costs the minimum on DraftKings.
Projections for both sites also suggest we can find multiple top values in a couple of the top lineups on the board. On FanDuel, both Daniel Vogelbach (152 wRC+, 261 ISO) and Tyler Naquin (116 wRC+, .226 ISO) both cost $2.5K or less against the power prone Josiah Gray (32 home runs and LHBs .404 wOBA, .358 xwOBA). On DraftKings, Corey Dickerson (119 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Albert Pujols (80 wRC+, .130 ISO) cost the minimum against Adrian Sampson, who hasn’t been bad for the Cubs, but doesn’t miss a lot of bats. He also has a large reverse split this year (RHBs .366 wOBA, .349 xwOBA – LHBs .283 wOBA, .307 xwOBA).
Top Projecting Value Provides High Strikeout & Ground Ball Rates
Cutting to the chase, the third best projecting pitcher tonight costs less than $8.5K on either site. David Peterson has impressively struck out 27.3% of batters with 51.1% of his contact on the ground. His one remaining issue is a 10.5 BB%, a big part of the reason he’s completed six innings just 25% of his starts. Five of his 37 runs have been unearned, so his ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.36 xFIP to a 3.99 xERA. He’s facing a below average, but contact prone offense (92 wRC+, 20.2 K%, 8.8 HR/FB vs LHP) in a great run prevention spot in a negative run environment with a pitcher friendly forecast (Weather Edge). Peterson is the top projecting FanDuel value, where he costs $300 less than DraftKings (second best projected value), despite the struggle to get through six innings.
Also projecting as the third best value on either site for $8.5K or less, Nick Pivetta’s 22.8 K% and 14.2 K-BB% are still slightly above average, but he’s completed six innings in just two of his last 10 starts. His 4.40 ERA is only barely above estimators ranging from a 3.96 DRA to a 4.30 xERA. He, too, has a favorable matchup (Rangers 96 wRC+, 23.7 K% vs RHP), but they are one of the hottest offenses in the league (131 wRC+, 20.7 K%, 21.1 HR/FB last seven days) in one of the more positive run environments in the league. However, the forecast may also lean pitcher friendly here too.
One more sub-$8.5K pitcher we may consider using on a single pitcher site, Lance McCullers projects as the fourth best FanDuel value, but does have some concerns. He has struck out just 13 of 67 batters with a 9.2 SwStr% and 10 walks. Even his 51.2 GB% is quite a bit below his career average (55.4%). His velocity has been down and dropping. Needless to say, a 1.69 ERA is a fluke with all estimators above four. If playing him, it’s because of his matchup with the Angels (94 wRC+, 26.7 K% vs RHP.
Domingo German and Alex Cobb project as strong SP2 DK values for less than $8K. German now has three Quality Starts in his last four outings, while six of his nine walks occurred over his first three starts, but his 17.8 K% isn’t gaining any steam. He’s not handing out free passes though (5.2 BB%) and he’s generated more popups (12) than barrels (nine). That said, he doesn’t have an estimator below four and all non-FIP estimators are more than a run above his 3.19 ERA (79.5 LOB%). A park upgrade with a matchup against the Rays (104 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs RHP) should help his upside, but this start could be problematic for him in that he’s gone to his curveball (0 RV, 33 Whiff%, .300 wOBA and xwOBA) more than any other pitch (35.6%) and the Rays are the best offense in baseball against that particular pitch (0.97 wCB/C). They are also one of the hottest offenses in the league (144 wRC+ last seven days is tops in MLB).
A 24.5 K%, 17.5 K-BB%, 61.2 GB%, 29.7 Z-O-Swing%, 4.1% Barrels/BBE and estimators ranging from a 2.84 xFIP to a 3.15 DRA all suggest that Alex Cobb is an All-Star. The only number that doesn’t is a 3.81 ERA and even that is down to 2.84 over his last 14 starts with seven of his last 10 being Quality Starts. He doesn’t have a great matchup against the Phillies (100 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP), now at full strength, but is simply undervalued for the underlying production.
Jeffrey Springs only rarely hits the 90 pitch mark, but has been one of the more impressive pitchers in the league on a pitch by pitch basis. He’s struck out 27% of batters faced with just a 5.6 BB% and has allowed just 6.6% Barrels/BBE on an 87 mph EV. The 81.9 LOB% probably ends up regressing some, explain the difference between his 2.76 ERA and estimators ranging from a 3.13 xFIP to a 3.48 xERA. While he does face the mighty Yankees (124 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 10.1 BB%, 18.0 HR/FB vs LHP), he does so costing just $7.3K in a negative run environment, while the Yankees have just a 58 wRC+ over the last week.
Lastly, one of the cheapest pitchers on the board, Davis Martin has just a 16.9 K% (8.5 K-BB%) with a 4.62 ERA nearly matching a 4.64 SIERA with all estimators within one-third of a run, but he also has a 12.8 SwStr% and 30%+ strikeout rate at both AA and AAA this season. There are still some possibilities here, even in a tough spot against the Twins (113 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP).