DFS Alerts

Tonight's Most Expensive Pitcher One of Many Top Arms in Difficult Spots

A 13 game Friday night slate offers four $10K pitchers and another two above $9K on both sites. Luis Castillo hit the double digit strikeout mark for just the third time this season last time out. Against Cleveland no less, after striking out just five in Oakland. The ground ball rate isn’t much more than average this year (45.8%), but he’s made up for it with a 27.2 K% (19.6 K-BB%) and has still allowed just 5.6% Barrels/BBE. There’s still some separation between his 2.85 ERA and all estimators above three, but only a 3.37 SIERA by more than half a run. The Guardians (102 wRC+ with a league low 17.5 K% vs RHP) have trouble with fastballs (-0.26 wFB/C), while Castillo’s four-seamer has a 35.8 Whiff% with a wOBA and xwOBA below .250 this year. But should we expect a repeat performance for the most expensive pitcher on the board (though just third most on DraftKings)? According to early PlateIQ Projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day), the short answer is no. He projects as just tonight’s seventh best arm and bottom half of the board value on either site. For much more on all of tonight’s most expensive arms, including the top projected pitcher and value on the board, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Salvador Perez scratched Wednesday

Salvador Perez scratched Wednesday

Stacking Projections Suggest Players Looking for Value Over Potency

With Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole costing in excess of $11K on FanDuel tonight, it’s the cheaper offense rather than the best one that projects to be most popular tonight with the Chicago White Sox the only stack currently projecting for double digit ownership (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). The White Sox also project for double digit DraftKings ownership, but are slightly behind the Braves, who have the second highest team run total (5.29) against Ryan Feltner. As they did yesterday against Jose Urena, the Braves once again to smash the slate most often, almost 50% more often than any other team. The White Sox also project to be the top FanDuel value stack tonight, though not as separated from the board as you may think. Only the Tigers project for more value than the White Sox on DraftKings, though by a pretty large margin. With players potentially opting for value over potency with their stacks, are the top offenses actually the top rated stacks? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Tons of Value Projected in This Lineup Against Struggling Lefty

Current PlateIQ projections for FanDuel (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) suggest the most value can be found in the Chicago White Sox lineup and with Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole costing in excess of $11K, players may need to take advantage of this. Kris Bubic has been shelled for 14 runs over his last 13.1 innings, striking out just 10 of 69 batters. Though only 28.3% of his contact has been on the ground over this span, he’s allowed just two barrels with a .490 BABIP, which can further be explained by the 39.6 LD%. He’s now sitting on a 5.62 ERA without an estimator below four and a half. RHBs have a .333 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against him this season. A.J. Pollock (157 wRC+, .315 ISO vs LHP this season), Romy Gonzalez (355 wOBA, .503 xwOBA vs LHP), Josh Harrison (92 wRC+) and Yasmani Grandal (156 wRC+) all cost $2.5K or less.

The White Sox are the only team to project multiple top 10 values on FanDuel, where on DraftKings we find two teams projecting a pair of top values, both in the same game in Detroit, where Marco Gonzales faces Tyler Alexander. Despite a 13.0 K% (5.9 K-BB%), 14 of Gonzales’s 25 starts have been Quality Starts. While the most obvious reason for this would be 11 unearned runs, eight of them came over his first three starts and none of them would have changed a Quality Start to one that wasn’t. He just seems to sequence his runs in bunches. His lowest estimator is a 4.82 xERA and he’s struck out more than five just once since April. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .331 and .364 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. Victor Reyes (91 wRC+) and Miguel Cabrera (109 wRC+) are top three projected values on DraftKings tonight for $2.3K or less.

Over his last three starts, Tyler Alexander has struck out just seven of 67 batters with five home runs, nine barrels (16.4%) and a 92.4 mph EV. On the season, he’s allowed 10.9% Barrels/BBE with a 12.3 K% and no estimators below his 4.83 ERA. RHBs are within five points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. Sam Haggerty (280 wRC+, .359 ISO) and Abraham Toro (78 wRC+) each cost the minimum, while Carlos Santana (139 wRC+, .141 ISO) is actually the top projected FanDuel value for $2.3K.

Top Projecting Bat Despite Lefty on Lefty Matchup

The Toronto Blue Jays have a half run advantage over the remainder of an 18 team field at 5.79 implied runs. The Braves (5.29), Phillies (5.03) and White Sox (5.01) are the other offenses exceeding five run team totals tonight with only the Mariners (4.73) additionally above four and a half runs. That gives us a few distinct tiers with which to operate. The Blue Jays do land a couple of bats among the top 10 projections tonight, but no more than the usual pair, while a couple of other offenses feature more.

Despite facing a LHP, the top projected bat on tonight’s board is Bryce Harper, who has had little issue with same handed pitching this season (161 wRC+, .232 ISO), nor has Kyle Schwarber (104 wRC+, .226 ISO), who also projects among the top 10 bats tonight. Tommy Henry has struck out exactly three in four of his five starts (seven Cardinals in the other) and is sitting on just 6.1 K-BB% with a 90.2 mph EV. He has a 3.25 ERA, but all non-FIP estimators are above five (82.3 LOB%). Statcast reverses his actual reverse split (RHBs .304 wOBA, but .353 xwOBA & LHBs .322 wOBA, but .299 xwOBA), though we’re still dealing with a very small sample.

The Braves plug four batters into the top 10 tonight (three on FanDuel), though they didn’t get it done against Jose Urena last night. Ryan Feltner has just a 13.5 K% over his last seven starts (one Quality Start) and has allowed multiple barrels in seven of 12 starts (9.1%). Season estimators range from a 4.29 xFIP to a 5.72 xERA, all a bit below his 5.87 ERA (64.3 LOB%). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs at least 30 points higher, which is bad news against a predominantly right-handed lineup. Matt Olson (127 wRC+, .267 ISO), Austin Riley (124 wRC+, .225 ISO), Michael Harris (148 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Dansby Swanson (112 wRC+, .160 ISO) project to do just fine without Ronald Acuna.

Luke Farrell has walked just one of the 32 batters he’s faced with just a single barrel (3.8%), but has also struck out just five with a 4.8 SwStr% and has generated less than a quarter of his contact on the ground with a 90.9 mph EV. He had just an 8.1 K-BB% at AAA this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (146 wRC+, .228 ISO) and George Springer (141 wRC+, .218 ISO) project to do the most damage tonight.

A 5.00 ERA with a 21.2 K-BB% Suggests This Pitcher Could Be Under-valued

Mitch White has struck out 19.1% of batters faced this season with just an 8.3 SwStr% and 90.1 Z-Contat%, but there has been some life in a contact profile that’s allowed just 5.5% Barrels/BBE and 32.8% 95+ mph EV. The result is a 3.87 xERA that’s his only non-FIP estimator below four. None the less, he currently projects as the top value on FanDuel for less than $11K. You’re probably not using him in a single pitcher site, even against the Cubs (98 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), though he may be a reasonable SP2 arm on DraftKings for less than $7K. Anibal Sanchez (against Oakland) and James Kaprielian (against Washington) are also cheap, strong projecting values who you are not considering on FanDuel. Two who may have a bit more of an argument are Bailey Falter ($7.1K) and Lance Lynn ($8.9K).

Falter has three straight Quality Starts, his first three of the season and is sitting on a very respectable 15.4 K-BB% on the season. A 29.3 GB% will probably be a problem in Philly and has with a 16.7 HR/FB, as he’s seen 12 of 14 barrels (9.3%) leave the park. Due to the extreme fly ball lean, a 4.09 SIERA is his only estimator below a 4.41 ERA. Arizona has just a 93 wRC+ and 23.0 K% vs LHP, but has some life injected into their lineup with recent callups and has hammered Philly pitching in this series so far.

Lance Lynn has a 27.0 K-BB% over his last eight starts, but is just recently starting to get the results befitting of such numbers, allowing four earned runs over his last 17.2 innings. Yet, he still have a 5.00 ERA on the season with a 21.2 K-BB%, due to a 17.9 HR/FB and 64.9 LOB% with 15 of his 20 barrels (8.8%) leaving the yard. His worst non-FIP estimator is a 4.09 xERA with contact neutral estimators below three and a half. Against the Royals (90 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP) with a pitcher friendly umpire, he is certainly a pitcher you can consider on either site, even as a deGrom/Cole alternative for more than $2K less. Lynn projects as the third best DraftKings value for $8K.

One other arm to consider might be Joe Ryan. He registered his first two Quality Starts since the beginning of July last two times out, but also has a 29.2 K% (21.7 K-BB%) over his last seven starts now. The extreme fly ball lean (27.6 GB%) is still an issue with 17 home runs and 29 barrels (9.3%), but he’s also generated a 16.1 IFFB% and is up to a 16.9 K-BB% on the season. While most estimators are above four the .254 BABIP does fit the contact profile and his 3.65 ERA aligns well with a 3.71 xERA. The Red Sox have a 97 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP.

Top Projected Arm Despite the Worst Matchup

A nine game Wednesday night slate finds four pitchers reaching the $10K price point on FanDuel (two on DraftKings), but no others exceeding $9K on both sites. Most expensively, Jacob deGrom has struck out 46 of 103 batters faced (21.9 SwStr%) with two walks and three barrels (5.5%). His slider has a 52.3 Whiff%. DRA thinks he “deserves” a 2.46 ERA. Also, DRA is stupid. All other estimators are well below two. Despite the toughest matchup on the board (Dodgers 125 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 10.0 BB% vs RHP), deGrom projects in an essential tie for the top spot on the board, which basically means that deGrom is always going to be the top projected pitcher on any board. Citi Field is a negative run environment, but with slight hitter friendly weather expectations via Weather Edge. Find tonight’s top projected value and worst projected value in Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Chas McCormick scratched Wednesday

Chas McCormick scratched Wednesday

Projections Are Pretty Clear On Who They Expect to Smash This Slate

On a 12 game slate where the Braves top the board (5.76 implied runs) by more than half a run, we do have one stack currently projecting for double digit ownership on either site (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), though it’s not the same team. The Braves are expected to be the most popular stack on DraftKings tonight, by a bit over the Brewers, who project to be the most popular stack over the Braves by a slightly wider margin on FanDuel. There is a clear answer that simulations give us in terms of smashing the slate and that’s the Braves by at least a three to one margin over any other offense on the board. We have some separation in the Value% column on either site too. The Kansas City Royals project as the top value stack on FanDuel. Lucas Giolito is no longer struggling with the long ball, but strikeouts are down (25.3%) and BABIP (.357) is up, while Weather Edge suggests some extremely hitter friendly conditions in Chicago tonight. On DraftKings, the Tigers project as the top value stack. This is not pretty, as they’re the worst offense in the league against RHP, while George Kirby is a good pitcher and the Seattle bullpen may be the best, but Detroit bats are incredibly cheap tonight. Which stacks project the best Leverage Ratings? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

The Spot to Find Value Bats on Either Site Against Struggling Pitcher

Atlanta may be the lineup with all the top projecting bats, but they’re somewhat expensive. What players really need with all the expensive pitching on this board are value bats and projections suggest that Minnesota is the place to find those. The Kutter Crawford starting experiment has derailed in a hurry. He’s struck out just 16 of his last 89 batters with a 28.6 GB%, 91.9 mph EV and 12.5% Barrels/BBE. The result has been 20 earned runs over his last 19.1 innings. His full season body of work still includes a 15.0 K-BB% with estimators ranging from a 3.99 SIERA to a 4.60 xERA, but that doesn’t appear to be who he is in a starting role at this point. He does have a rather large split with LHBs owning a .397 wOBA (.362 xwOBA) against him this season. Nick Gordon (115 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP this season) is a top three projecting value on either site for $2.2K or less. Jake Cave (81 wRC+, .225 ISO) is also a top projecting value on either site at minimum cost. Max Kepler (102 wRC+, .135 ISO) is a top 10 projected value for $2.5K on FanDuel.

FanDuel projections also find value in one of the top lineups tonight. Not Atlanta, but Milwaukee. Mitch Keller has struck out just 13 of his last 108 batters with a 42.9 GB%. His 4.30 ERA over this five spot span is a bit misleading because six of the 17 runs he’s allowed have been unearned. His season ground ball rate has dropped to 49.5% with just a 10.2 K-BB%. His 4.50 matches his 4.50 DRA, but is slightly above other estimators, which drop as far as a 3.99 FIP with just 11 of 29 barrels exiting the park. Batters from either side are between a .314 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while the Pittsburgh pen has been heavily worked recently too. Jace Peterson (106 wRC+, .188 ISO) is your top projecting FanDuel value, costing the minimum. For just $100 more, you get Omar Narvaez (86 wRC+, .131 ISO). Kolten Wong (132 wRC+, .206 ISO) costs $2.7K.

Aside from Minnesota, you’re looking at some awful offenses (Royals, Athletics, Tigers) at minimal cost for top projecting values…essentially punts. Victor Reyes (104 wRC+) and Harold Castro (84 wRC+) cost the minimum, though LHBs are below a .255 wOBA and xwOBA against Goerge Kirby and the Seattle bullpen may be the best in the league. Michael Massey (105 wRC+) and Michael A. Taylor (95 wRC+) also cost the minimum against Lucas Giolito (RHBs .406 wOBA, .372 xwOBA, but LHBs below .280). Jonah Bride (89 wRC+) and Chad Pinder (77 wRC+) for the same price against Erick Fedde (batters from either side between a .324 to .346 wOBA and xwOBA). In fact, Sean Murphy (107 wRC+, .161 ISO) is the only projected Oakland bat costing more than $3K on DK.

The Offense that Dominates Projections Against Pitcher with a 0.0 K-BB%

Facing the Rockies, but not at Coors, the Atlanta Braves still top a 12 game board at 5.87 implied runs on Tuesday night. The only flaw in Atlanta’s armor is a 25.1 K% vs RHP, but Jose Urena has both an 11.6% strikeout and walk rate. More than half a run lower, but still reaching five runs are the Brewers (Mitch Keller) and Yankees (Mike Mayers). Only three more offenses exceed four and a half runs or even 4.3 runs on a very pitching heavy board. Each of the first two, four of the top six, and even six of the top 12 projected bats are Braves tonight. While Urena has a 95 point split this season (LHBs .400 wOBA) and the projected Atlanta lineup only includes three from that side, Statcast narrows the gap to less than 20 points (LHBs .367 xwOBA, .RHBs .349 xwOBA). Urena’s only positive attribute is a 50.2 GB%, which makes this even more of a stacking situation with the main obstacle being price, considering the price of pitching tonight. Ronald Acuna Jr. (114 wRC+, .124 ISO vs RHP this season) and Matt Olson (129 wRC+, .269 ISO) are tonight’s top projected bats, not too far ahead of Austin Riley (122 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Dansby Swanson (113 wRC+, .159 ISO) with William Contreras (122 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Michael Harris (152 wRC+, .260 ISO) just outside the top 10.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Angels also feature a pair of top 10 projected bats. It’s the obvious in L.A.. Twelve of Jameson Taillon’s 24 walks this season came in a four start stretch that started towards the end of July, but he hasn’t walked a batter in three starts since. It’s mentioned because a 4.2 BB% is the key to his season with a marginal 20.2 K% and very average contact profile. His 3.89 ERA is within a quarter run of all estimators, a perfectly fourth starter type. It’s actually probably a small victory that Mike Trout (165 wRC+, .357 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (160 wRC+, .292 ISO) at least project among the latter half of the top 10. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .298 and .338 wOBA and xwOBA against Taillon this year.

So much for “at least Mitch Keller is generating ground balls”. He’s struck out just 13 of his last 108 batters with a 42.9 GB%. His 4.30 ERA over this five spot span is a bit misleading because six of the 17 runs he’s allowed have been unearned. His season ground ball rate has dropped to 49.5% with just a 10.2 K-BB%. His 4.50 matches his 4.50 DRA, but is slightly above other estimators, which drop as far as a 3.99 FIP with just 11 of 29 barrels exiting the park. Batters from either side are between a .314 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while the Pittsburgh pen has been heavily worked recently too. Christian Yelich (122 wRC+, .154 ISO) and Willy Adames (115 wRC+, .249 ISO) are top projecting bats tonight.

Top Projections Values Are Mostly SP2 Types

With nine pitchers costing more than $9K on each site (all covered in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog), you’re probably not going below that price tag on FanDuel tonight, even though the three best projecting values cost less than $8.5K there tonight. Lucas Giolito might be an option against the Royals (89 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP), except for some extremely hitter friendly weather expectations, along with his own drawbacks. Striking out just three of 24 Orioles, Lucas Giolito produced his first post-break Quality Start last time out. It’s no longer a home run and barrel problem, as he’s allowed just four of each over his last 11 starts, but his BABIP is now up to .357. It’s not all bad luck, as his 25.3 K% is his lowest since 2018. Estimators range from a 3.67 xFIP to a 4.15 DRA. Keep an eye on Weather Edge though. If conditions temper, Gioilto still may be an option.

Projecting as a top two value for less than $6K on either site, Mike Mayers is more an SP2 type on DraftKings and even that may be a stretch against the mighty (112 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 14.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but slumping (89 wRC+, 6.3 HR/FB, but still just a 17.3 K% over the last week) Yankees in a hitter friendly environment. We’re even expecting a hitter friendly umpire tonight. Mayers struck out five of 19 Rays in his first start, throwing fewer pitches (78) than he did in his previous relief outing. It’s not that he’s shown anything exceptional out of the bullpen (13.7 K-BB%, 12.0% Barrels/BBE), but the Angels just need arms at this point. Eight of his 12 barrels have left the yard, but his 4.46 ERA is within half a run of all estimators. The only appeal Mayers has is his price tag with a league average K-BB%.

Erick Fedde struck out six of 19 Mariners (14.8 SwStr%) in his first major league start in a month, but has just a 6.2 K-BB% on the season, which places his 4.88 ERA within one-fifth of a run of all estimators. We’re usually talking about Fedde to encourage players to stack against him, but tonight, he projects as the third best value on either site for less than $7K against the A’s (81 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP, 63 wRC+, 23.3 K%, 6.4 HR/FB last seven days).

One more place to look for arms is in Detroit. George Kirby isn’t that cheap ($9.2K on FanDuel) and has been working on a lower pitch count recently, but it hasn’t seemed to hurt his production. Despite exceeding 85 pitches in just one of his last five starts, he has struck out 36 batters (30.3%) over that span. The caveat is that he’s done this with just a 9.4 SwStr%. The 24.9 K% on the season isn’t the story. It’s the 3.3 BB% that occasionally lets him sneak into games, despite the low pitch counts. The contact profile was a bit of an early concern. While he’s still at 9.0% Barrels/BBE on the season, he’s allowed just six (4.9%) over his last eight starts. His 3.32 ERA fits snuggly between estimators ranging from just a 3.19 FIP to a 3.39 DRA. Four a guy who throws his four-seam fastball 46.8% of the time (-1.8 RV/100, 27.8 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .260), he’s certainly facing the right team (Tigers MLB worst -0.63 wFB/C). This is probably one of the few matchups in baseball, if not the only one, we’re willing to consider a fairly high price tag with such a pitch limit, but the Tigers have a 72 wRC+, 25.1 K% and 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP.

On the other side of this matchup, Matt Manning costs less than $7K on DK. While he hasn’t exactly faced the top offenses in the league, Matt Manning has still struck out 26 of his last 101 batters with a 13.7 SwStr%. That only brings him up to a 20.3 K% over seven starts, but with a 5.9 BB% and excellent contact profile (86.7 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE, 29.2% 95+ mph EV). While all estimators are well above his 2.37 ERA (84.7 LOB%, 6.1 HR/FB), contact inclusive ones (3.37 xERA) are closer than contact neutral ones (4.12 SIERA). The Mariners aren’t an easy matchup at all (103 wRC+, 22.7 K% vs RHP), but there’s some upside there and Manning could work in an SP2 spot for that price.

At Least Seven Innings in 14 of Last 22 Starts

It’s a uniform 12 game slate across both sites tonight with ALL the high end pitching. In addition to the six $10K pitchers (two on DraftKings), another three exceed $9K on each site. That’s 37.5% of the board, starting with Aaron Nola as the most expensive arm on the board in Arizona. He struck out a season high 11 Reds in a shutout without a walk last time out and is up to a 25.1 K-BB% on the season without allowing a barrel (7.1%) in four starts. Nola has pitched at least seven innings in 14 of his last 22 starts, while his 3.08 ERA is still above estimators ranging from a 2.60 xERA to a 2.88 xFIP, mostly because the defense stinks (-24 Runs Prevented). The curveball (26.6%, -1.5 RV/100, 38.7 Whiff%) should have some success against Arizona (-0.44 wCB/C), who also struggle with RHP (93 wRC+, 21.4 K%), though this lineup has had some turnover and some of the younger bats are interesting. The top of the board is jammed with three arms essentially tied (within a point) of the top projection. Right behind them is Nola with the fourth best projection on the board. However, Nola merely projects as the 10th best value on the board. If there’s a chance you’re going to get 30% strikeout upside and potentially seven to eight innings in a good spot and this pitcher is going to be under-owned, Nola may be your guy tonight. For much more on every pitcher costing more than $9K on both sites, including the three arms projecting ahead of Nola tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Stack Projected to Smash the DK Slate at a Nearly 20% Rate

With a two game difference between slates and the FanDuel one carrying just six games, which omits the top team run total of the night (St Louis), we’re going to see some diversity in the stacking projections for tonight (although, remember that they are fluid and updated throughout the day). The Cardinals do project to be the most popular DraftKings offense tonight, though not too far ahead of the pair of stacks which are nearly tied for the top ownership projection on FanDuel (Phillies & Twins). We also find the Cardinals projected to smash the slate most often, nearly 20% of the time on DraftKings, a bit ahead of the Brewers, who project to smash the FanDuel slate most frequently. The only problem there is that we still don’t really know who they’ll be facing other than it being a bullpen game for the Pirates. The Brewers also project to be the highest value stack on FanDuel, while tying for the top honor on DraftKings with the Cardinals, who have a mix of cheap and expensive bats. For more on the top rated stacks tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Lineup update: Michael Grove will start for the Dodgers on Monday.

Lineup update: Michael Grove will start for the Dodgers on Monday.