DFS Alerts

The Offense That Dominates Hitter Projections Tonight

On a 12 game slate with pitcher friendly weather in nearly every park east of Coors, we find the Brewers atop the board at 6.39 implied runs a bit ahead of the Dodgers (5.96) against the unconfirmed pitching plans of the Giants and then a near full run separation to the other five offenses between four and a half and five run team totals. The surprise among PlateIQ hitter projections tonight is not at all that the top four projections on the board all belong to Brewers, but that none of the top 10 projected bats are Dodgers. In fact, no other team features multiple top 10 projected bats aside from the Brewers. Each of the remaining six beyond that are basically perennial MVP candidates (Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Juan Soto) outside of Ian Happ (121 wRC+, .188 ISO) against Justin Dunn (LHBs .423 wOBA, .431 xwOBA), although he has been much better over his last two starts than he was in his first three and Wrigley weather is currently forecast to be pitcher friendly.

Onto those Brewers though. Chad Kuhl has allowed at least three runs in five innings or less in eight consecutive starts since a three-hit shutout against the Dodgers. His 5.19 ERA is an exact match for his xERA (90.4 mph EV, 9.4% Barrels/BBE) and within one-third of a run of all estimators (7.8 K-BB%). Kuhl’s only positive pitch has been his slider (35.9%, -1 RV/100, 34.7 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .275), but the Brewers are the fourth best offense in baseball against sliders (0.18 wSL/C). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .342 and .362 wOBA and xwOBA against Kuhl this season. Rowdy Tellez (122 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board, immediately followed by Christian Yelich (119 wRC+, .149 ISO), Willy Adames (104 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Hunter Renfroe (125 wRC+, .153 ISO). This is basically the top half of the projected order and with either site failing to sufficiently price up Coors bats this season, we’ll probably be talking about some of them again as top values. This is convenient, considering how expensive almost all of the usable pitchers are tonight, but has the potential to jam up ownership, even on a large slate.

Plug in This Cheap Arm in a Great Spot and Stack Coors

Tonight’s top projected value on both sites is a matchup and price play. Mike Mayers has struck out nine of 42 batters (12.6 SwStr%), though two starts, but has also walked five and allowed three home runs. With most of his work out of the bullpen, he has an average 13.0 K-BB%, but major issues in a contact profile that includes a 29.1 GB%, 91.1 mph EV, 12.8% Barrels/BBE and 48.7% 95+ mph EV. His 5.19 xERA nearly matches his 5.17 ERA with contact neutral estimators half a run to a run lower. This could be the most positive run environment on the board outside Coors tonight, but the Tigers have a 70 wRC+ (25.9 K%, 7.4 HR/FB) on the road and 71 wRC+ (25.2 K%, 7.2 HR/FB) vs RHP. Are you using Mayers on a single pitcher site for $5.8K? It’s almost interesting in GPPs. The much easier question is for DraftKings players at less than $5K. Plug him in and stack Coors.

Each of the next five best projected values cost at least $9.5K on DraftKings and were already covered in Top of the Board Pitching Analysis. On FanDuel, Jose Quintana breaks through that group, but has virtually no upside. He has moved to a great park with a great defense (17 Runs Prevented), but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have to strike out anyone. After punching out 13 of his first 46 post-trade batters faced, he’s struck out just seven of his last 80 with eight walks, but a terrific contact profile (53.1 GB%, 86.8 mph EV). Quintana has allowed a barrel in just one of his last five starts, but you’d still probably like to see a few more strikeouts than walks. Non-FIP estimators (6.6 HR/FB) range from a 3.84 xFIP to a 4.73 DRA behind an 11.8 K-BB%. The Nationals have just a 20.3 K% vs LHP (92 wRC+), but 137 wRC+ and 19.9 K% over the last week. Quintana is a pure run prevention play. You’re basically playing the park and defense for less than $8.5K.

It is really difficult to find much on the lower half of the board to like, but realize that almost every park east of Coors has a pitcher friendly weather forecast tonight, so maybe a Kyle Bradish, who has muted the hard contact issues in his second go around in the big leagues, or Mitch White could be a viable SP2 for less than $7K in Baltimore. Or even Justin Dunn, who’s looked much better in his last two starts, at Wrigley.

Top of the Board Pitching Analysis (Part II)

Joe Musgrove struck out a season high 11 Giants last time out after striking out just two in his previous start. His previous season high of 10 occurred one start after he struck out a single batter. Musgrove makes it a point to bounce back strong from his poor starts. Not that he’s had many this year with a 3.01 ERA and estimators ranging from a 3.14 xERA to a 3.38 FIP not too far above. Musgrove combines great peripherals (19.6 K-BB%) with an extraordinary contact profile (86.5 mph EV, 5.6% Barrels/BBE, 32.4% 95+ mph EV), while pitching deep into games (six innings or more in 20 of 24 starts). The Diamondbacks have just a 96 wRC+, but with a mere 21.2 K% and 12.0 HR/FB vs RHP. They’ve also injected some exciting young blood into the lineup recently and may be a bit better than their overall numbers. Musgrove is tonight’s fifth best projected pitcher and sixth best DK value (eight on FD).

Brandon Woodruff has allowed multiple home runs more often (three times) than he’s struck out more than five (twice) over his last six starts. He still has a 21.5 K-BB% on the season (16.9% over his last six starts) and neither home runs (10.8 HR/FB), nor barrels (7.7%) have been season long issues, but it’s never really felt like he’s gotten going this season. His 3.54 ERA is slightly above all estimators, ranging as low as a 3.18 DRA. Woodruff is a fastball thrower (sinker & four-seam 60.9% & -5 Run Value comabined) and the Rockies (81 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP) are the sixth worst offense in the league against fastballs (-0.31 wFB/C). In addition, the Rockies have a 46 wRC+ and 26.9 K% over the last week, but Woodruff is one of the few pitchers not dealing with pitcher friendly conditions tonight (weather), on top of having to pitch at Coors. Woodruff still projects just inside the top 10, but as a middle (DK) to bottom (FD) of the board value.

Merrill Kelly’s 2.84 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 3.09 FIP to a 3.97 SIERA, but beyond his contact profile (34.8% 95+ mph EV) the strikeout rate appears to be evolving as well (26.1% with a 20.2 K-BB% over his last eight starts). This is not a small sample either, as Keely has gone at least seven innings in six of those starts and at least six innings in 16 straight. The Padres have been perfectly average against RHP (101 wRC+, 21.9 K%) and Juan Soto hasn’t done much to change that yet. None the less, Kelly projects as just a middle of the board arm and bottom of the board value, though projections could be slightly under-valuing him here if the strikeout spike is real.

Top of the Board Pitching Analysis (Part I)

Tuesday night’s 12 game slate features six $10K pitchers (three on DraftKings) along with one more exceeding $9K on each site. Most expensively, costing $11.2K on both sites, Gerrit Cole has allowed just two home runs on five barrels (5.9%) over his last five starts, but with just a 26.8 K% with downward trending velocity. This is a small concern, but he’s still completed six innings in 23 of his last 24 starts and has a 25.2 K-BB% with all estimators below his 3.28 ERA on the season. The Twins (112 wRC+, 22.0 K% vs RHP) were that one start though (five home runs). They smash fastballs (0.32 wFB/C). In addition to the tough matchup, weather is going to be another challenge here with Kevin currently forecasting a straight ORANGE for this game with all day rain in New York. Weather will be a theme throughout this slate, though this is the only game that appears to put SPs in danger. Assuming they do play, there’s a cluster atop the board with three pitchers fighting for the top overall projection between Cole and two others. While Cole is the highest upside of the three, conditions could also make him the riskiest. He also projects as the fifth best value on either site.

Costing $11K on FanDuel, but a full $1K less on DraftKings, Framber Valdez generally has higher strikeout totals than you’d expect with a 22.6 K% and 14.2 K-BB% because his 67.0 GB% (4.0% Barrels/BBE) helps him erase a lot of his walks and pitch deep into games, but he’s struck out exactly eight in three of his last four starts (26.8 K%) and recorded seventh inning outs in seven straight. Valdez also has 22 straight Quality Starts. His 2.63 ERA is more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 3.15 xFIP to a 3.48 DRA, but the Astros have one of the best defenses in the game (18 Runs Prevented) and their .266 BABIP allowed is actually lower than his .269 mark. Currently the third best projected pitcher on either site, though less than two points from the top spot, Valdez is not in any spot against the Rangers (118 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 16.9 HR/FB vs LHP), but it is a weather protected negative run environment with the roof closed and the Rangers can’t homer if they can’t get the ball off the ground. Valdez projects as the second best DK value (fourth best on FD).

With his velocity creeping upwards, Shane Bieber is still below the last couple of years, but has struck out 20 of his last 53 batters. Bieber now has a 20.6 K-BB% on the season and has completed seven innings in five of his last seven, at least six innings in 20 of his last 23. A 3.43 xERA is his only estimator more than a quarter run removed from a 3.06 ERA. He’s only allowed 6.9% Barrels/BBE, but with a 90 mph EV and 42.6% 95+ mph EV. Costing within $300 of $10.5K on either site, Bieber is in a nice spot in Kansas City (91 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 8.7 HR/FB) with potentially pitcher friendly weather and umpiring. He, of course, is the other pitcher in that top group cluster with Cole and Valdez, projecting as the second best FanDuel value (fourth best on DraftKings).

Kyle Wright has gone at least six innings in nine straight starts (eight Quality Starts) and at least seven in five of his last 11. He’s allowed just three runs over his last 26 innings and the strikeout rate is on the rise again too (28% last three starts). Sitting on a comfortable 17.1 K-BB%, estimators ranging from a 3.23 DRA to a 3.82 xERA are a bit above his 2.85 ERA with some regression expected in an 81.3 LOB%, though even if that occurs, this is the best version of Kyle Wright we have seen and he’s in a great spot in Oakland (83 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP) with a significant park upgrade. Wright is your fourth best projected arm, right behind that top cluster and the third best projected DK value (sixth best on FD).

The Surprising Stack That Projects a Strong Leverage Rating

We may not have a single offense exceeding a five run team total on a small six game board tonight, but the team topping the slate (Angels 4.92) still projects to be the most popular stack on DraftKings, nearing a 20% Projected Ownership number, though the Astros project to be the most popular FanDuel stack, well ahead of the Angels, but just barely ahead of the Padres. Remember, though, PlateIQ stacking projections are fluid and updated throughout the day. On either site, the Astros project to smash the slate slightly more often than the Angels, despite having the lowest team total of the four offenses reaching four and a half implied runs tonight (4.52). Both teams currently have a Smash projection above 15% with no other stack exceeding 10% currently. The Angels project as a one of the top two value stacks on either site, slightly ahead of the Giants on FanDuel and a bit behind the Tigers on DraftKings.

Information normally posted on the PlateIQ Live Blog, but free today, is that the Angels project as the top rated stack with their top projected Value% and more importantly top projected Smash%, but single digit Own% projection. With just a 12.8 K% and 10.6% Barrels/BBE, Tyler Alexander’s 4.76 ERA aligns well with his 4.77 xFIP, but is below all estimators, including an xERA above five. He’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup with batters from that side within four points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year.

The Angels still project a solid Leverage Rating on DraftKings, but the Astros are currently the top rated stack there. Martin Perez is the most expensive FanDuel pitcher tonight, but the Astros have tagged him for seven and five runs over his last five starts and projections believe they stand a good chance to do it again. RHBs have a .293 wOBA and .301 xwOBA against him.

The other stacks that are rated among the top four on either site are the Dodgers, who also face a good, but inconsistent pitcher in Logan Webb, and Diamondbacks, who nobody is really talking about with the lowest team run total on the board against Blake Snell. Snell does have a 20 point separation between his strikeout and walk rates, but is still somewhat volatile and these ratings are looking at smash potential versus ownership projection in order to gain the most leverage on the field. Snell has been just slightly better than average against RHBs this season (.310 wOBA, .298 xwOBA), while Geraldo Perdomo is the only RHB in the projected lineup below a 98 wRC+ or .174 ISO against LHP this year.

Cheap Bats in Some Top Lineups Projecting for Strong Value

Whether you filter LineupHQ by total Ftps or P/$ using PlateIQ projections, it’s tough to get away from L.A. bats tonight. While Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and even Taylor Ward project at the top of the board in the former category, stacks can be made easier with the former category. Costing less than $2.5K on either site, Jo Adell (53 wRC+, .118 ISO vs LHP this year) projects as a top three value. He’s just one of four top projected values in this lineup on either site against Tyler Alexander (RHBs .347 wOBA, .346 xwOBA). On Fanduel, David Fletcher (109 wRC+), Luis Rengifo (155 wRC+, .235 ISO) and Max Stassi (37 wRC+) all cost $2.5K or less as well. In that same price range on DraftKings is Andrew Velasquez (61 wRC+), while Ward (120 wRC+, .132 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value for just $3.1K.

On the other side of that affair, the Tigers have been a bit better against LHP (99 wRC+), but are just as cheap. With a 25.8 K% over his last five starts, Jose Suarez is up to a 22.6 K% on the season and even has his second and third Quality Starts of the season in that span. Issues in his contact profile (9.1% Barrels/BBE) have been dissipating over his last six starts (5.3% Barrel/BBE), leaving a 4.10 ERA within one-third of a run of all estimators. RHBs have a .316 wOBA and .307 xwOBA against him, while LHBs have a .306 wOBA and .293 xwOBA, exhibiting a very small split. Victor Reyes (87 wRC+), Kerry Carpenter (-29 wRC+ in limited opportunities) and Spencer Torkelson (63 wRC+) all project as top DraftKings values for $2.5K or less.

Despite two quality pitchers going for the Dodgers and Giants tonight, FanDuel projection favor a pair of bats from either side as potential top values tonight. Joey Gallo (105 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Max Muncy (100 wRC+. .174 ISO) both cost less than $2.5K against Logan Webb (LHBs .316 wOBA, .302 xwOBA. Austin Slater (133 wRC+, .149 ISO) and J.D. Davis (128 wRC+, .171 ISO) are in the same range against Andrew Heaney (RHBs .307 wOBA, .268 xwOBA).

L.A. Bats Projecting Strongly Tonight

On a small six game holiday slate, no offense reaches five implied runs tonight, but a quarter of the board exceeds four and a half. The top projecting bat on the board is Mike Trout (183 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP this season) in the most power friendly park on the slate. With just a 12.8 K% and 10.6% Barrels/BBE, Tyler Alexander’s 4.76 ERA aligns well with his 4.77 xFIP, but is below all estimators, including an xERA above five. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within four points of .350 against him this season. LHBs have just a .287 wOBA, but higher xwOBA than RHBs (.359). Thus, Shohei Ohtani (118 wRC+, .195 ISO) projects as a top three bat as well. Taylor Ward (120 wRC+, .132 ISO) borders on the top 10 as well, despite his lack of power with the platoon advantage and mere 78 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Trout has shown no ill effects from the back issue that kept him out for most the summer. He has a 146 wRC+ since returning. The Angels do top the board with a 4.92 team turn total.

A pair of Houston Astros (4.52) also project as top five bats on either site despite facing the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. With at least five runs in two of his last five outings (both against the Astros ironically), including last time out, a lot of people believe this is finally regression punishing Martin Perez. While his 7.9 HR/FB is likely unsustainable, more than half (11) of his 18 barrels (3.9%) have gone out and he’s also working with a career high 21.7 K% with the caveat being that his 8.4 SwStr% is barely above his career rate (8.2%). However, an average strikeout rate with a great contact profile (51.8 GB%, 34.5% 95+ mph EV) projects a 3.43 ERA that’s only a half run higher than his 2.89 ERA and 4.17 DRA is his only estimator above four. One area of concerns is a 12.2 BB% over his last eight starts, but the strikeout rate is up to 25.3% over this span, while only failing to go six innings three times. Perez has exhibited a sizeable split with RHBs owning a .293 wOBA and .301 xwOBA against him, but LHBs just a .270 wOBA and .234 xwOBA. None the less, Yordan Alvarez smashes same-handed pitching (163 wRC+, .260 ISO) and projects less than a point above Jose Altuve (214 wRC+, .368 ISO).

The Dodgers (4.84) are the only other offense projecting multiple top 10 bats. Only three of the 12 runs Logan Webb has allowed over his last three starts have been earned At -25 Runs Prevented, the Giants do have one of the worst defenses in the league. He has struck out 13 of his last 44 batters after a start where he struck out no Diamondbacks. With a strikeout rate sitting barely above one-fifth of batters faced (20.3%), he’s relied on good control (6.8 BB%) and a strong contact profile (58.5 GB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE) to sustain estimators ranging from a 3.19 FIP to a 3.60 SIERA and xERA. With 13 unearned runs on the season, he carries just a 2.89 ERA. LHBs have a .316 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him, while RHBs have a .254 wOBA, but .290 xwOBA. On a small slate, Freddie Freeman (159 wRC+, .191 ISO), Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .270 ISO) and Trea Turner (123 wRC+, .145 ISO) project near the top of the board.

Perhaps the Best Pitcher on the Slate for Less than $9.5K

The top projecting FanDuel values are Andrew Heaney and Blake Snell, but there are also a few cheaper pitchers who project well enough to be considered on a single pitcher site too. Starting with the pitcher who is barely the fourth best projecting pitcher on the slate, a point or less removed from third best, Lance Lynn is finally starting to see the efforts of his underlying performance rewarded with a total of five earned runs over his last four starts and just two outs shy of eight straight starts with at least six innings pitched. He has a 27.6 K-BB% over his last nine starts (22.0% on the year) with just four walks over that span (13 on the year). Yet he still has a 4.70 season ERA because he’s only stranded two-thirds of his runners and 16 of his 21 barrels (8.6%) have left the yard for a 17.6 HR/FB. Non-FIP estimators are all below four, ranging as low as a 3.17 SIERA. Lynn’s best pitch has been a cutter he’s utilized 22.9% of the time for just a -0.2 RV/100 and .340 wOBA, but 26.7 Whiff% and .305 xwOBA. The Mariners (105 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP) are a bottom half of the league offense against this pitch (-0.35 wFC/C). Seattle also played a long Sunday game, which included several hours or rain delay, on a travel day with an earlier start in Seattle tonight. Lynn projects as your fourth best FanDuel value for $9.3K, but second best on DraftKings for $1.4K less.

With a 25.8 K% over his last five starts, Jose Suarez is up to a 22.6 K% on the season and even has his second and third Quality Starts of the season in that span. Issues in his contact profile (9.1% Barrels/BBE) have been dissipating over his last six starts (5.3% Barrel/BBE), leaving a 4.10 ERA within one-third of a run of all estimators. The Tigers are better against LHP, but even that has been fading recently (99 wRC+, 22.0 K%, 6.6 HR/FB). Suarez projects as tonight’s fifth best arm and third best value for $8K or less on either site.

Hunter Brown is the top ranked Houston prospect by Fangraphs with a 50 Future Value grade. Triple digit velocity capable, Brown adds a mid-90s slider and low-80s curve, though does still have some control issues that have some projecting a possible bullpen home rather than a rotation one. In fact, nine of his 23 appearances have come out of the pen at AAA this year, where he’s struck out 31.5% of batters with a 10.6 BB%. He starts his major league career in a favorable matchup (Rangers 96 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP) in a negative run environment, assuming roof closure in Houston. With a $2.5K discrepancy in cost, Brown projects as the fifth best FanDuel value, but best DraftKings value and a perfect SP2 arm for just $5.2K.

Tonight’s other debuting pitcher, twenty-four year old Ryne Nelson is the Diamondbacks’ sixth rated prospect with a 45+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs). Nelson has bat missing high heat and utilizes it often with a curveball and slider to keep batters off balance, but has struck out just 21.6% of AAA batters through 26 starts this year, which is more than a 10 point drop off from AA in 2021. He’s in a tougher spot (Padres 102 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP, but even better than that since the trade deadline). San Diego is a firmly negative run environment, though with some potentially hitter friendly weather with an earlier start time. Only available on DraftKings Nelson is a reasonable SP2 choice for just $5K, projecting as the fifth best point per dollar pitching value.

A Small Holiday Evening Slate Features Some Over-priced Pitching

A small six game holiday evening slate still includes four $10K pitchers, along with another exceeding $9K on both sites, which is essentially half the slate, especially when you consider the two pitchers making their major league debuts tonight, who are not both available on both sites. The most expensive pitcher on the board is…Triston McKenzie??? Costing $10.7K on DraftKings and $200 less on FanDuel, striking out 25 of his last 70 batters, McKenzie is up to a 25.2 K% (18.7 K-BB%) with the only issue lying in his contact profile (31.6 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 10.3% Barrels/BBE). With a .231 BABIP and 80.2 mph EV, his 3.18 ERA is more than a quarter of a run below all estimators, including a matching 3.91 FIP and xFIP. McKenzie’s last outing was only the third time he’s failed to complete six innings in 21 starrts. Kansas City is one of just two positive run environments on the slate (assuming a roof closure in Houston), but the home team has just a 91 wRC+, 22.2 K% and 8.7 HR/FB vs RHP. McKenzie is tonight’s third best projecting pitcher, but just a middle of the board projected value.

Most expensively on FanDuel ($10.6K), with at least five runs in two of his last five outings (both against the Astros ironically), including last time out, a lot of people believe this is finally regression punishing Martin Perez. While his 7.9 HR/FB is likely unsustainable, more than half (11) of his 18 barrels (3.9%) have gone out and he’s also working with a career high 21.7 K% with the caveat being that his 8.4 SwStr% is barely above his career rate (8.2%). However, an average strikeout rate with a great contact profile (51.8 GB%, 34.5% 95+ mph EV) projects a 3.43 xERA that’s only a half run higher than his 2.89 ERA and 4.17 DRA is his only estimator above four. One area of concerns is a 12.2 BB% over his last eight starts, but the strikeout rate is up to 25.3% over this span, while only failing to go six innings three times. This price tag is absurd in Houston (118 wRC+, 17.9 K%, 13.0 HR/FB vs LHP). Perez projects in the bottom quartile of pitchers tonight and as a bottom two value, even for $2.5K less on DraftKings. He may be a bit better than people want to believe, but not nearly as good as daily fantasy sites are suggesting at these prices.

Blake Snell walked more than two batters for the first time in eight starts last time out and nearly has his walk rate (10.2%) in single digits, while sustaining a 30.8 K%. He’s even completed six innings in four of his last seven. Sustaining a 20 point gap between his strikeout and walk rates results in estimators all more than one-third of a run below his 3.87 ERA, but above three. The .324 BABIP has been a killer. In a firmly negative run environment, though with potentially hitter friendly weather, he faces an offense with just a 91 wRC+ and 23.1 K% vs LHP, but one that has injected some new blood lately (125 wRC+, 20.2 K% last seven days). Snell is tonight’s top projecting pitcher and second best projected value by a smidgen on FanDuel, though he ties for just the fourth best value projection on DraftKings, despite being $100 cheaper. This is probably where we should the bulk of the ownership to go tonight, but check back later for that.

A board high 20.9 CStr% affords Brady Singer a 25.1 K% with just a 9.7 SwStr%. It’s within a range of supportable outcomes, but just barely. This has really been the crux of his improvement (19.0 K-BB%), as his ground ball rate is down (47.1%) and his exit velocity and barrels are up (89.5 mph, 8.4%). He has generated 56% of his contact on the ground over his last three starts though. The White Sox snapped a string of nine straight starts with at least six innings last time out. A 3.82 ERA is the only estimator more than one-third of a run removed from his 3.33 ERA. The positive run environment is less a problem than the matchup here. The Guardians have a 102 wRC+ and 17.5 K% vs RHP. They have just a 55 wRC+ over the last week, but with just a 15.9 K% (1.8 HR/FB). Singer projects as a middle of the board, but as a bottom quartile value even at his $1.5K lower price on DraftKings.

Andrew Heaney has struck out 28 of his last 68 and 35.4% of batters through 10 starts this season. The Dodgers haven’t solved his contact profile issues (90.3 mph EV, 10.1% Barrels/BBE), but with a 29.3 K-BB%, nobody much cares. While all estimators are more than one-third of a run above his 2.12 ERA, even his FIP only rises to 3.29. The Dodgers have only allowed him to hit 90 pitches once and six innings twice. However, on this board, against the Giants (111 wRC+, but 23.9 K% vs LHP) Heaney still projects as the second best arm on the board and they top FanDuel value, where he’s actually $200 cheaper than on DraftKings (sixth best projected value).

Max Kepler scratched Monday

Max Kepler scratched Monday

Mets-Pirates postponed Monday due to rain

Game Update: Mets-Pirates postponed Monday due to rain

The start of Cubs-Cardinals will be delayed Sunday due to rain

Game update: The start of Cubs-Cardinals will be delayed Sunday due to rain

Martín Maldonado scratched Sunday

Martín Maldonado scratched Sunday

Garrett Cooper (personal) scratched Saturday

Garrett Cooper (personal) scratched Saturday

Yordan Alvarez (hand) scratched Friday

Yordan Alvarez (hand) scratched Friday