DFS Alerts
Despite early strikeout decline, Zack Godley still has a 12.5% SwStr% this season
Godley is coming off a bit of a rough start against the Los Angeles Dodgers where he was tagged for six runs, five of them earned, in just four innings of work, but on a positive note, he was still able to record four strikeouts in a shortened outing that was fueled by an uncharacteristic six bases on balls. Prior to the aforementioned hiccup, Godley had been more than solid in his first two starts, allowing just one earned run in 14 innings pitched, and even though his strikeouts are slightly down from last season’s 26.3% strikeout rate thus far, there’s been nothing to indicate that he isn’t due for some positive regression in that department and currently sports a 12.5% swinging strike percentage, matching his career rate. Godley finished with a solid 3.32 xFIP in 2017, so he definitely possesses the ability to rebound from this mediocre start, especially if he continues to maintain a massive 61.2% groundball rate and 26.0% soft-hit percentage, numbers that would set career-highs in both categories but still aren’t necessarily unsustainable given Godley’s profile as a groundball pitcher with a career 54.0% groundball rate. In addition, there may not be a much better matchup for Godley to begin his turnaround than Saturday’s tilt with the San Diego Padres, who’s projected lineup currently owns a collective 30.2% strikeout rate in 2018, making it easy to see why they have the second-highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest walk rate against righties in the Majors this season. Godley not only appears to be in great position to pick up the win and quality start bonuses across the daily fantasy industry this evening, but he also has the potential to be the top point-per-dollar starting pitching option on the entire main slate, which is really saying something with aces like Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Jacob deGrom, Dallas Keuchel, and James Paxton all taking the mound for their respective squads. Don’t hesitate to lock in Godley as an SP2 in cash games on DraftKings or as a tournament target in a more balanced roster construction on both DraftKings and FanDuel considering his middling price tag on both sites.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Coors First, Arlington Second
Saturday’s simplistic cash game strategy for choosing hitters: Coors first, Arlington second. The god-like 44 year old Bartolo Colon is coming off a near perfect game against the Astros and will toe the rubber against the Mariners in Arlington on Saturday night. A combination of Colon’s early season success and the Mariners unimpressive start to the year has led to some low Seattle price tags which makes them strong filler options for your cash game lineups. Seager is one of those guys who has a reasonable tag in a plus matchup against the soft tossing Colon. Seager is an above average offensive player who has a very strong batted ball profile to start the year (lots balls in the air, very little soft contact).
Eat the Chalk
How did DraftKings reward a 4-for-6, 24 DK pt fantasy performance from Albert Almora on Friday night? By decreasing Almora’s tag by $200. In all fairness, DK released salaries long before Almora’s strong performance, but nonetheless, a price reduction on an already cheap Almora is going to make the Cubbies outfielder mega chalky for Saturday’s main slate. My advice is to eat this chalk in cash games (and honestly in most GPP lineups too) and look to differentiate elsewhere.
Cheap Diamondbacks
Unfortunately cheap Diamondback hitters are likely going to be a common theme of cash game lineups throughout the year. The Diamondbacks are a team that fairly aggressively platoons it’s hitters which helps lead to lower price tags of these hitters that aren’t in the lineup daily. Owings got knocked up in Thursday’s game but passed the concussion protocol and I would expect him to be back in the middle of the Dbacks order Saturday night against the southpaw Clayton Richard. Owings, like Descalso whom was a high owned dud in cash games last night, does not project to be a strong offensive player, but does have a favorable matchup Saturday night and does project to have some valuable at bats with RBI opportunities. If you’re trying to get Sale + Coors in your lineup, you’re going to have to save somewhere.
Head + Shoulders
Sale caught a little heat for his lack of…heat…his last start out against the Baltimore Orioles. Sale saw a noticeable dip in velocity against the O’s but attributed his lack of zip to the cold weather – “This was the most miserable I’ve ever been on a baseball field by far. Not even close….As unimpressive as it might have been, I’m just trying to throw strikes. I didn’t care how hard it was going or what pitch it was. I wanted to get it over the plate, because I knew how hard to hit it was.” All of that to say this – if you were concerned about Sale’s dip in velocity his last start, don’t be. Sale is an elite talent and his 36.5% strikeout rate (16.4 SwStr%) to start the year is head and shoulders better than any other pitching option for Saturday’s main slate.
High Upside SP2
While SP1 is clear for Saturday’s main slate, SP2 is a little murkier. A decent rule of thumb when trying to decide between secondary options is to side with the pitcher that gets to take on the San Diego Padres. There’s obviously some sarcasm in there but it is an added benefit to Godley’s matchup that he doesn’t have to face off against a DH like some of the other secondary options in Dallas Keuchel and Garrett Richards. The Padres have carried over their (lack of) success into early 2018 as they have the second highest strikeout in the league (27.4%) against right handed pitching to go along with a bottom third wRC+ (85). Godley is kind of in that mid-tier of pitching talent but has shown some strikeout upside early on in his career and has a strong 12.5% swinging strike percentage to start the year. To me, Godley has the highest upside of the secondary options.
Firing Up Some Lefties Against an Extreme Splits Pitcher
We all know the drill with Julio Teheran at this point. Play left-handed hitters against him. His career wOBA split is about 70 points worse when facing lefties compared to righties, and I will happily fire up some Mets lefties here. Bruce has had a difficult start to the season, but the good news is that his price tag is now much cheaper than we’ve come to expect. I’ll gladly buy low in a favorable spot here, especially since Atlanta’s home park is friendly to left-handed power bats.
Attacking Coors Field with a Value Play
Any time we can get an affordable piece at Coors Field that is hitting in a good lineup spot, we have to be interested. Enter Albert Almora. He actually hit leadoff last night even against a RHP, and he responded with four hits and four runs scored. I would expect him to hit leadoff again tonight against a lefty, and he should be brimming with confidence after last night. His price tag is super affordable on every site, and I’ll gladly play him in all DFS formats.
Top Hitting Option on the Slate
I’ll opt for Goldschmidt as my top hitter on the board this evening. Goldschmidt gets the selection because he has made a career out of mashing weak left-handed pitchers at home. In 36 career plate appearances against the soft-tossing Clayton Richard, he has a .500 on-base percentage and a .370 batting mark. Four of his ten hits have gone for extra bases, and he matches up very well agains the Padres’ starter. Richard has had a difficult start to the year, and Goldschmidt can certainly take advantage of that.
Saving Just a Bit of Salary on the Mound
If you can’t quite fit Sale into your lineups or you are playing on a multi-pitcher site, give Godley a look. Godley comes at a significant discount compared to Sale on all sites, and let’s not forget that Godley had a 3.32 xFIP and 26% strikeout rate a year ago. He has been solid to start this year, though the strikeouts are down just a bit. I still like him a lot in a home matchup against a weak San DIego offense, and he helps you to fit a few more high-end hitters into your lineup.
The Obvious Top Pitching Choice
If you can fit him in your lineup, Sale is obviously the top pitching choice on the board. He draws a matchup against an Oakland squad that has a lot of free swingers in the lineup. The A’s rank 5th in the major leagues in strikeout rate so far this season, and that’s not good when you are getting ready to face the best strikeout pitcher in baseball. Don’t overthink this one — if you can fit Sale in there, do it. The biggest challenge is the salary cap, as there are also a ton of great offensive options this evening.
Luis Valbuena (.235 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is a low priced play vs a pitcher who allowed 19 HRs to LHBs last year
Jeff Samardzija makes his first start of the season off just 2.2 innings in high A ball. He did strike out five of 15 batters, but allowed six runs. He did allow 19 HRs to LHBs last year (.335 xwOBA) and that was with pitching half his games in San Francisco. A low priced Luis Valbuena (102 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP since last season, 180 wRC+ last seven days) could fit nicely into lineups tonight. Shohei Ohtani may be a more difficult fit. Kole Calhoun (96 wRC+, .143 ISO) drops to eighth and could find himself on the bench soon.
Other tagged players: Jeff Samardzija, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun
Mitch Moreland has an xwOBA 55 points above his actual and the highest ISO in the lineup vs RHP since last season
The Boston Red Sox have an implied run line over four and a half runs against Kendall Graveman, who barely has a double digit strikeout rate this season. Batters from either side have an xwOBA above .340 against him with right-handed batters actually having more success (.381 xwOBA, .370 wOBA) since last season. While he does keep RHBs on the ground more often (57.2% vs 42%) with about average contact authority to both sides, he just can’t generate any swings and misses. J.D. Martinez’s absence from the lineup tonight may actually be an opportunity to find more affordability in the Boston lineup. Mitch Moreland (105 wRC+, .390 xwOBA, .218 ISO) actually has the highest ISO in the lineup against RHP since last season and has an xwOBA 55 points higher than his actual number. He costs just $3.2K on DraftKings and joins Mookie Betts (114 wRC+, .209 ISO) with a wRC+ above 250 over the last week.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Kendall Graveman Charlie Blackmon (150 wRC+, .310 ISO) may be the only useful Colorado bat vs a pitcher who grounds RHBs
Kyle Hendricks is a strong contact manager, who isn’t striking out nearly as many batters this year (16.7%). It’s an interesting spot at Coors because he keeps RHBs on the ground (55.9 GB%, 26.2 Hard%) and only Chris Iannetta (104 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Nolan Arenado (96 wRC+, .221 ISO) have even been league average bats against RHP since last season among the five right-handed bats in tonight’s lineup. Lefties have had some success (.328 wOBA, .329 xwOBA, 34.7 Hard%, 40.6 GB%), which makes Charlie Blackmon (150 wRC+, .310 ISO) an ideal play, but perhaps the only one in this game. His $5K+ price tag on either site may also make him a difficult fit in lineups paying up for pitching tonight. Gerardo Parra (78 wRC+, .148 ISO) is one of four batters in the lineup with a wRC+ below 20 over the last week.
Other tagged players: Kyle Hendricks, Chris Iannetta, Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra One big trouble spot in Kevin's evening update
There is one lone trouble spot in Kevin’s evening update, but it’s a big one. Players can read the full report on the Weather page, but premium subscribers are going to want to tune into Crunch Time at 6:30 ET to get further in-depth updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time