DFS Alerts
Simply Too Cheap For The Upside
The high end is loaded tonight, with several outfielders, along with Goldschmidt worth spending on. To make that work, we’ll need some salary savers, and Domingo Santana is simply way too cheap against Dillon Peters. Peters should have some ground ball ability, but so far this season all he’s doing is getting hit hard and often. Santana has a career 41.3% hard hit rate against left-handed pitching, and his strikeout risk is lowered in this matchup.
The Ideal Matchup
There were two big hitting first baseman who flew to the top of my list when looking at this slate – Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt. I thought Freeman would sit out tonight, but since he’s in the lineup, both guys are top of the line options at first base. Given that there is some small level of concern with Freeman’s wrist, I’ll stick with Goldschmidt as my top play. Ty Blach is a low strikeout lefty, and Goldschmidt is one of the premier hitters in all of baseball against left-handed pitching. In the early going this year he has a silly high 53% hard hit rate with a .571 ISO and .581. In 2017, he posted a .407 wOBA and .280 ISO against lefties with 50% hard hits.
Lefty-Masher On The Top Offense
The Brewers are likely to be popular, and rightfully so. Dillon Peters has been awful out of the gate this season, and while I still expect him to be respectable, Ryan Braun is just too elite to ignore against left-handed pitching. He was a top hitter in every way against lefties last season with more walks than strikeouts and a 47% hard hit rate. He’s picked right back up where he left off with high contact and hard hits. He’s basically a free square on FanDuel and a player to target on all sites.
Easily The Top Option
I find it bizarre that Greinke is not the most expensive pitcher on this slate. I love Jameson Taillon and I get that he’s good, but he just hopes he can grow up to be Zack Greinke some day. Greinke has by far the highest strikeout rate on this slate, both last year and so far this year, and he has by far the lowest walk rate and the lowest SIERA. It’s really not even close, this is an easy call in all formats.
Auto-Play against Southpaws
There are a handful of hitters that I play every time they face a left-handed pitcher. J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and even Hunter Renfroe are on that list. The hitter up top is Paul Goldschmidt, who owns a massive .448 xwOBA with a 50% hard contact rate against lefties. He draws a favorable matchup to boot, as he squares off against Ty Blach at home.
Batting Leadoff with a Favorable Matchup
Matt Harvey has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on over the last few seasons, especially with left-handed hitters. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .418 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate to lefties. Ender Inciarte is cheap, he’s batting leadoff, and he brings stolen base upside to the table.
Paying for Consistency
Baseball is unlike any other fantasy sport in that you have a good chance of having at least one batter in your lineup score zero fantasy points in a given slate. There are very few batters that rarely get shut out and one of them is Mookie Betts. He has decent power, he gets on base a lot, he has speed, and he bats leadoff for a very good offense. He draws an exploitable matchup against Nick Tropeano, even though this game is being playing in the pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium.
An Affordable Team Stack
Milwaukee’s offense has been sputtering lately, but this could be the spot to get them rolling. Dillon Peters is a low strikeout LHP with a career 17% strikeout rate at the major league level. He remains in a bit over his head at this point, and the Brewers have plenty of hitters that are capable of mashing lefties. Domingo Santana and Jesus Aguilar are dirt cheap, and you can throw the more expensive Ryan Braun in as part of your stack — this should still allow you to get one of the top pitching options on the slate, as well. There’s plenty of GPP upside in this stack tonight.
Other tagged players: Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun
Let's Keep Playing Him At Low Ownership
I’ve been on Nick Ahmed since last season, and he continues to crush left-handed pitching. He has a .224 ISO with a .395 wOBA against lefties since the start of 2017. His strikeout rate is just under 19%, and he has a 36.5% hard-hit rate with a 78.5% contact rate. In 130.1 innings against righties since the start of 2017, Blach has a 5.09 xFIP with a 1.47 WHIP. He has a very low 11% strikeout rate with a .352 wOBA. He has a massive 15.9% hard to soft contact ratio as well. With the low strikeout ability, I really like the Diamondback righties tonight, and I think Ahmed is one that will be lower owned.
Give me a Matchup Against this Team any Day of the Week
With only five games on the main slate, we have a limited player pool. Pitching isn’t exactly the deepest position on the board. While Chase Anderson feels a little overpriced, I’m willing to pay the premium in a matchup against the Marlins. Their projected lineup has a .287 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching. Anderson’s solid start to the season should continue with a nice outing tonight.
A High-Upside Stack with a Park Upgrade
Matt Wisler is in to start for the Braves tonight, and he can certainly be targeted as an attackable pitcher on a five game slate. The Mets get a park boost traveling to Atlanta, and the left-handed power bats get an upgrade. Yoenis Cespedes and Todd Frazier also have the ability to pop one at any time, so they can certainly be considered as part of a stack. I like this game to be high scoring on both sides, so this is certainly a game that could be worthy of a full game stack this evening.
Other tagged players: Asdrubal Cabrera, Todd Frazier Throw out the High ERA
As we all know, ERA is a pretty meaningless statistic when it comes to predicting future performance. Through three starts, Greinke has an ERA north of five, but positive regression should be coming his way. He owns a 2.50 SIERA with a 29% strikeout rate and a 1% walk rate. The Giants aren’t the best matchup when it comes to strikeout upside, but they have little firepower to speak of and Greinke gets to face them at home.
Top Stack on a Thursday Slate
I love picking on Matt Harvey, and I love the way the Braves match up against him. That’s a fine combination. Atlanta has a lot of left-handed power in the lineup, and their park is suited well for left-handed power. Harvey is also nothing short of abysmal against left-handed hitters. He allowed a .426 wOBA against them to go along with 37% hard contact last year, and he has allowed a .387 wOBA to lefties so far this year. Atlanta is my favorite stack tonight, and it’s not even particularly close.
Other tagged players: Ender Inciarte, Preston Tucker Sticking To This Team For Value
A lot of my favorite value plays all come from the same game tonight. The Brewers get a left-handed pitcher tonight, and in a small sample size, Dillon Peters has struggled with right-handed hitters. He has a 1.47 WHIP with a 4.57 xFIP and a .341 wOBA against right-handed hitters since being called up last season. His OBP was .357 to righties in that span, and with the 1.45 HR/9, I want my value guys to have power and to be able to get on base. Santana’s numbers were down, on the surface anyway. In 177 place appearances against lefties since the start of 2017, he has a .197 ISO with a .350 wOBA. His xwOBA in that span was .472, and his hard-hit rate is 43.9%. He has great upside here, and he should hit in the two spot for the Brewers tonight.
A Fine MId-Range Pitching Choice
After missing basically all of spring training as a result of signing late, I have been off Arrieta for his first two starts. However, he should be almost 100% ready to go at this point, and he got up to 88 pitches in his last start. The price tag remains reasonable, and he will be my preferred SP #2 choice in multi-pitcher formats tonight. The strikeout upside may not be there against the Pirates, but Arrieta should be in line for a solid performance, and that has value on a short slate.