DFS Alerts
Way Too Cheap On FanDuel
Ryan Zimmerman is way too cheap on FanDuel tonight. He has a .295 ISO with a .407 wOBA and a 151 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of 2017. He’s off to a really slow start this season, but he’s a much better hitter than his price tag and stats. Matz has a .371 wOBA with a 35.4% hard contact rate against right-handed hitters since the start of 2017. He also has a 2.24 HR/9 with a 21.1% HR/FB ratio in that same span. There is a lot of upside for the Nationals tonight, and I’m taking advantage of this price on FanDuel.
All Depends On The Lineup
There is a really good chance I pay up for pitching tonight, and I would highly recommend doing the same thing. I don’t like a lot of value options on this slate. Roark is one of the guys with some upside, but if the Mets go left-handed hitters, it’s a tough spot for Roark. While he has a .358 wOBA with a 1.68 HR/9 against left-handed hitters since the start of 2017. He has a .257 wOBA with a .24.5% strikeout rate and a .70 HR/9 against righties in that same span. If we get five to six righties, I’m willing to take a shot on Roark in a large field tournament.
This Lineup Is Really Struggling
We don’t have a lot of value options tonight, but I want to see what the lineup looks like for the Diamondbacks. The projected starting lineup has a .300 wOBA with a .148 ISO against right-handed pitching. They have a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Stratton has a .282 wOBA with a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters since the start of last season. He has a .327 wOBA with a 16.6% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters in that same span. With limited pitching options tonight, I’m willing to take a shot on Stratton in this matchup. If there are more righties, I will bump up my tournament exposure to him.
Evan Longoria (ankle) scratched Tuesday; Pablo Sandoval replaces
Longoria has been scratched from the San Francisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not play in Tuesday’s matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks due to a tweaked ankle. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Pablo Sandoval, who will play third base and slot directly into Longoria’s fifth spot in the order, which means that the remainder of the Giants lineup will stay intact as they face off against left-hander Patrick Corbin this evening.
As reported by: Amy Gutierrez via Twitter
Ben Zobrist (tight back) scratched Tuesday; Ian Happ replaces
Zobrist has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not play in Tuesday’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals due to back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ian Happ, who will play center field and slot directly into Zobrist’ leadoff spot in the order, which moves Jason Heyward over to right field, but will still keep the remainder of the Cubs lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Adam Wainwright this evening.
As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter Bryan Mitchell has 14 walks with three strikeouts through three starts
Bryan Mitchell has walked 14 and struck out three in three starts for the Padres. While he’s done a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground, batters from either side have both a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against him in 46.1 innings since last season. These are the kind of numbers that make you look twice to make sure the Padres are actually still starting him. Strangely, the Dodgers are only projected for 4.34 runs by Vegas. The lineup is not yet confirmed, but each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup have a 105 wRC+ or higher against RHP since 2017 with only Chase Utley (.167) and Corey Seager (.163) below a .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. With lots of walks and quite a few ground balls, a stacking approach might be superior to individual selections here.
Other tagged players: Chase Utley, Bryan Mitchell
Corey Kluber may be the arm players are most likely to gravitate to on a board with several high upside arms
Corey Kluber has top expectations on Tuesday night and he’s the pitcher players are more likely to gravitate to than any other, but there are a number of high upside arms with varying levels of risk on tonight’s board. Premium players can find out which of those pitchers players might be likely to roster after Kluber and also find projections for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Kevin's evening forecast suggests some rain and continued cold weather could affect at least one spot tonight
Kevin’s evening forecast suggests some rain and continued cold weather could affect at least one spot tonight. Players can check out the entire forecast on the Weather page, but premium subscribers can see Kevin go in-depth any trouble spots tonight at 6:30 ET on Crunch Time.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time Khris Davis has a 258 wRC+ with four HRs and a 60 Hard% over the last week
The Oakland A’s have one of the higher projected run lines on the slate (4.78) facing Miguel Gonzalez at home. Gonzalez provides around league average production against same handed batters (.328 wOBA, 30.8 Hard%, 39.2 GB%), while being punished by lefties (.368 wOBA, 34.3 Hard%, 33.6 GB%). The Athletics have a quintet (that’s five) of batters who pound RHP (and also Marcus Semien) from the start of the order, led by Matt Olson (171 wRC+, .376 ISO vs RHP career), Jed Lowrie (129 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Matt Joyce (128 wRC+, .250 ISO) from the left side, but also Khris Davis (136 wRC+, .293 ISO) and Matt Chapman (125 wRC+, .271 ISO) from the right side. Joyce still costs right around $3K on either site with the struggling Olson (69 wRC+, 27.3 Hard% last seven days) at just $3.3K on FanDuel in a nice spot. Khris Davis has been crushing baseballs over the last week (258 wRC+, 4 HRs, 60 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Matt Joyce, Matt Olson Mike Trout and Justin Upton have a .400+ xwOBA vs each of David Price's top three pitches against RHBs
The Los Angeles Angels are one of just a handful of teams with an implied run line of 4.5 or higher on Tuesday night and they are facing a pretty good pitcher in David Price. They have just flat out mashed southpaws though to the tune of a 134 wRC+ with a 23 Hard-Soft% and just a 16.2 K% so far. They have an overall team 155 wRC+ over the last week. David Price looked decent in his first two starts before leaving his last one early with a hand injury. Underlying numbers, including a .220 BABIP, 80.9 LOB% and 4.3 HR/FB to go along with his 19.0 K% (10.4 K-BB%) aren’t as optimistic that he’s back to form yet. Even with some struggles and injuries last year, RHBs have still been just about average against him (.295 wOBA, .324 xwOBA, 38.4 Hard%, 34.7 GB%). Price’s plan of attack against RHBs is comprised mostly of sinkers, cutters and change-ups according to Brooks Baseball. That’s bad news against Mike Trout (155 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP since 2017) and Justin Upton (196 wRC+, .361 ISO, 43.3 Hard%), who each have an xwOBA above .400 against each of those three pitches since the start of the 2016 season according to PlateIQ. Interestingly, Albert Pujols (58 wRC+, .081 ISO) is the only other RHB in the lineup with an xwOBA of at least .330 against each of those pitches too. Ian Kinsler (128 wRC+, .254 ISO, 45.2 Hard%) and Zack Cozart (151 wRC+, .271 ISO) should be considered as well. The leadoff man for the Angels additionally has a 215 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. The downside to all this is that all except Pujols are quite costly against a pretty decent pitcher.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Mike Trout, David Price, Albert Pujols, Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler Byron Buxton (migraine) scratched Tuesday; Robbie Grossman replaces
Buxton has been scratched from the Minnesota Twins original confirmed lineup and will not play in Tuesday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians due to a migraine. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Robbie Grossman, who will play center field and slot directly into Buxton’s eighth spot in the order, which means that the remainder of the Twins lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Corey Kluber this evening.
As reported by: Dustin Morse via Twitter Jake Odorizzi may not sustain his 5.6 HR/FB in warmer weather in Puerto Rico
Jake Odorizzi has a sparkling 2.20 ERA through three starts for the Twins, but he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out over his last two starts and his ERA estimators are around three runs higher due to an 87.4 LOB% and 5.6 HR/FB. The bad news is that he leaves the cold air of Minnesota for the heat and humidity of Puerto Rico to face the Indians tonight. The good news for Odorizzi, a career reverse split of a .327 wOBA vs RHBs and .284 vs LHBs, is that the Tribe will make no effort to force additional RHBs into their standard lineup tonight. He won’t see a single right-handed bat until Edwin Encarnacion (131 wRC+, .395 xwOBA, .263 ISO vs RHP since last season), who has struggled with a -41 wRC+ and 40% strikeout rate over the last week (15 PAs). The good news is that when he’s made contact, five of eight batted balls have been hit hard over the last seven days. NIneteen of 31 HRs surrendered by Odorizzi since last season have gone to right-handed batters.
Other tagged players: Jake Odorizzi C.J. Cron (119 wRC+, .276 ISO vs LHP since 2017) is a high value play (>$3K) vs another struggling lefty tonight
After tattooing the generous Martin Perez last night, the Rays face another struggling left-hander in Matt Moore tonight. The interesting thing about Moore is that he has a reverse split with LHBs above a .400 wOBA against him since last season. The Rays will still stack eight right-handed batters before the lone lefty (Mallex Smith). Not to worry though, RHBs have still generated a .346 xwOBA with a 36 Hard% (36.8 GB%) against Moore since last season. As was the case last night, the Rays don’t offer a lot of firepower against LHP, but do offer value with only Carlos Gomez (79 wRC+, .159 ISO vs LHP since 2017) and Smith above $3K on either site tonight. Daniel Robertson (103 wRC+, .184 ISO) out of the leadoff spot and C.J. Cron (119 wRC+, .276 ISO) batting cleanup are high value plays on either site.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gomez, Mallex Smith, Matt Moore, Daniel Robertson Adam Wainwright has struck out a total of 14 batters (165 faced) since the All-Star break last season
The Cubs are surprisingly low with just a 3.9 implied run line at home against Adam Wainwright. Temperatures are expected to be cold, but Kevin’s early forecast suggests wind won’t play a factor here. LHBs have punished Wainwright for a .352 wOBA since last season and RHBs (.331 wOBA) have had some success as well. The good news is that Wainwright has already matched his post-All-Star break strikeout total from last season in less than half the amount of batters this year. The bad news is, that total is seven and still only good for a 14.6 K% in 2018. Anthony Rizzo (131 wRC+, .408 xwOBA, .228 ISO vs RHP since last season) costs a reasonable $4.3K on DraftKings, similarly priced to Kyle Schwarber (114 wRC+, .282 ISO) on both sites. A bit cheaper is Willson Contreras (113 wRC+, .205 ISO), a reasonable Catching choice tonight.
Other tagged players: Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Adam Wainwright Yonny Chirinos has not allowed a run in 14.1 innings with a 22.8 K% and low to mid-three ERA estimators
Players considering paying up Corey Kluber, but still want some salary left over for bats on DraftKings could consider Yonny Chirinos in their second spot for just $4.7K. In three outings, covering 14.1 innings, he’s struck out 12 without allowing a run. While a perfect run prevention record can’t be expected to continue, a 22.6 K%, 10.8 SwStr% and low to mid-three estimators all present a decent pitcher. Even if you don’t expect that to continue, he doesn’t even need to be a league average arm in a great spot at home against a Texas offense with an 85 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs RHP.