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Gavin Lux scratched Friday

Gavin Lux scratched Friday

Two Offenses Feature Multiple Top Projected Bats

The Boston Red Sox are the lone offense exceeding five implied runs on a 13 game Friday night slate (5.17). That’s what a matchup at Fenway against Dallas Keuchel in 2022 gets you, even if the forecast currently appears to be slightly pitcher friendly. Boston also does not separate themselves much from the rest of the board with the Cardinals at 4.97 implied runs, but then only three other offenses reaching four and a half run team totals. We have a lot of good pitchers facing top offenses tonight and that includes the Yankees (Jeffrey Springs), Dodgers (Yu Darvish) and Braves (Sandy Alcantara) all lower than you’d normally see them on this board.

Despite the lack of separation, Boston bats do dominate projections tonight. Each of the top three projected bats on DraftKings and five of the top 10 are Red Sox (four of the top 10 on FanDuel). Rafael Devers (109 wRC+, .174 ISO vs LHP this season) and Tommy Pham (138 wRC+, .183 ISO) are the top projected bats on both sites. Keuchel struck out a single batter, walked a single batter and allowed a single home run, but seven total runs in his first start for the Rangers. He has an 8.84 ERA over 13 starts this year and yet the Rangers are going to let him do it again (can’t be worse than their bullpen last night). In Boston no less. While he’s still generating half his contact on the ground (50.2%) and the .376 BABIP, 53.2 LOB% and 18.3 HR/FB are all likely to regress, a 4.80 xFIP is still his only estimator below five. Batters from either side of the plate exceed both a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. Xander Bogaerts (183 wRC+, .179 ISO), J.D. Martinez (158 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Alex Verdugo (109 wRC+, .123 ISO) are also top projecting bats tonight.

The Houston Astros (4.65) are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. It’s now hard to believe that Reid Detmers struck out just two in his no-hitter. He recognized he needed to be better and has a 29.5 K% over his last 10 starts, which has pushed his season rate up to 23.3%. That said, his 3.47 ERA is still well below estimators ranging narrowly from a 4.07 xERA to a 4.15 DRA (.255 BABIP, 78.8 LOB%), but sustaining a strikeout rate anywhere near 30% will solve that problem in a hurry. This is a concerning spot against the second best fastball hitting team in the league (0.55 wFB/C), as Detmers has thrown his 43.3% of the time with mixed results (-0.3 RV/100, 23.5 Whiff%, .347 wOBA, .362 xwOBA). With RHBs still owning a league average .310 wOBA, .319 xwOBA against Detmers this season, you can see why Jose Altuve (200 wRC+, .351 ISO) is a top projected bat tonight. Yordan Alvarez (165 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (91 wRC+, .172 ISO) might have a tougher time of it, but are still projected to do some damage. LHBs have just a .248 wOBA and .296 xwOBA against Detmers this season.

This Offense Projects to Smash the Slate Nearly Twice as Often as Any Other Team

The Red Sox are the top offense on the board at 5.17 implied runs, but not too far above the Cardinals (4.97). Current stacking projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) do suggest they’ll be the most popular stack, though by a wider margin on FanDuel, where they nearly double up the stack projecting to be the second most popular (Astros). The Red Sox may not separate themselves much from the rest of the board in terms of team run totals, but simulations project them to smash the slate almost twice as often as any other team, at a rate nearing 20%. A cheap Detroit lineup that has been league average (98 wRC+) against LHP doubles up the projected value of any other stack on DraftKings tonight, though several teams are just below 10% on FanDuel. The Red Sox do project as one of the top rated stacks tonight, but to find out who projects right there with them, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Lineup That Produces Much Better vs LHP Projects Several Top Values

The Detroit Tigers maybe the worst offense of the last 20 years…against RHP. Against LHP, they’re not entirely terrible (98 wRC+, 22.0 K%). They are also extremely cheap (minimum priced in a lot of spots) against a marginal pitcher. Daniel Lynch’s sophomore effort has been better than his first. The strikeout rate is only 20.7%, but with an 11.8 SwStr%. The contact profile still needs some help (90.7 mph EV, 45.8% 95+ mph EV) with his 4.73 xERA nearly matching his 4.70 ERA, while remaining estimators are within half a run. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. The top projected value on either site is a Detroit Tiger tonight. On FanDuel, it’s a min-priced Miguel Cabrera, who has basically been average against LHP (102 wRC+) in just over 100 PAs, but with absolutely no power (.011 ISO). Cabrera is the only Tiger among the top 10 projected FanDuel values though. On DraftKings, Victor Reyes (92 wRC+, .085 ISO) projects as the top value, joined Cabrera and Jeimer Candelario (81 wRC+, .186 ISO) all costing the minimum.

We also find a pair of KC bats projecting as top 10 values on both either site against Drew Hutchison in that game. He has registered a 12.9 K% over 12 starts without more than four in any of them. His 3.86 ERA is lower than his 4.36 FIP, which is lower than his 4.79 xFIP over this span with just six of 16 barrels leaving the yard. LHBs have spanked him for a .362 wOBA and slightly better .331 xwOBA this season. Michael Massey (118 wRC+) is a top projecting value on both sites for $2.1K or less. MJ Melendez (88 wRC+, .169 ISO) is less than $2.5K on FanDuel. Nick Pratto (93 wRC+, .255 ISO) costs the minimum on DraftKings.

Projections for both sites also suggest we can find multiple top values in a couple of the top lineups on the board. On FanDuel, both Daniel Vogelbach (152 wRC+, 261 ISO) and Tyler Naquin (116 wRC+, .226 ISO) both cost $2.5K or less against the power prone Josiah Gray (32 home runs and LHBs .404 wOBA, .358 xwOBA). On DraftKings, Corey Dickerson (119 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Albert Pujols (80 wRC+, .130 ISO) cost the minimum against Adrian Sampson, who hasn’t been bad for the Cubs, but doesn’t miss a lot of bats. He also has a large reverse split this year (RHBs .366 wOBA, .349 xwOBA – LHBs .283 wOBA, .307 xwOBA).

Top Projecting Value Provides High Strikeout & Ground Ball Rates

Cutting to the chase, the third best projecting pitcher tonight costs less than $8.5K on either site. David Peterson has impressively struck out 27.3% of batters with 51.1% of his contact on the ground. His one remaining issue is a 10.5 BB%, a big part of the reason he’s completed six innings just 25% of his starts. Five of his 37 runs have been unearned, so his ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.36 xFIP to a 3.99 xERA. He’s facing a below average, but contact prone offense (92 wRC+, 20.2 K%, 8.8 HR/FB vs LHP) in a great run prevention spot in a negative run environment with a pitcher friendly forecast (Weather Edge). Peterson is the top projecting FanDuel value, where he costs $300 less than DraftKings (second best projected value), despite the struggle to get through six innings.

Also projecting as the third best value on either site for $8.5K or less, Nick Pivetta’s 22.8 K% and 14.2 K-BB% are still slightly above average, but he’s completed six innings in just two of his last 10 starts. His 4.40 ERA is only barely above estimators ranging from a 3.96 DRA to a 4.30 xERA. He, too, has a favorable matchup (Rangers 96 wRC+, 23.7 K% vs RHP), but they are one of the hottest offenses in the league (131 wRC+, 20.7 K%, 21.1 HR/FB last seven days) in one of the more positive run environments in the league. However, the forecast may also lean pitcher friendly here too.

One more sub-$8.5K pitcher we may consider using on a single pitcher site, Lance McCullers projects as the fourth best FanDuel value, but does have some concerns. He has struck out just 13 of 67 batters with a 9.2 SwStr% and 10 walks. Even his 51.2 GB% is quite a bit below his career average (55.4%). His velocity has been down and dropping. Needless to say, a 1.69 ERA is a fluke with all estimators above four. If playing him, it’s because of his matchup with the Angels (94 wRC+, 26.7 K% vs RHP.

Domingo German and Alex Cobb project as strong SP2 DK values for less than $8K. German now has three Quality Starts in his last four outings, while six of his nine walks occurred over his first three starts, but his 17.8 K% isn’t gaining any steam. He’s not handing out free passes though (5.2 BB%) and he’s generated more popups (12) than barrels (nine). That said, he doesn’t have an estimator below four and all non-FIP estimators are more than a run above his 3.19 ERA (79.5 LOB%). A park upgrade with a matchup against the Rays (104 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs RHP) should help his upside, but this start could be problematic for him in that he’s gone to his curveball (0 RV, 33 Whiff%, .300 wOBA and xwOBA) more than any other pitch (35.6%) and the Rays are the best offense in baseball against that particular pitch (0.97 wCB/C). They are also one of the hottest offenses in the league (144 wRC+ last seven days is tops in MLB).

A 24.5 K%, 17.5 K-BB%, 61.2 GB%, 29.7 Z-O-Swing%, 4.1% Barrels/BBE and estimators ranging from a 2.84 xFIP to a 3.15 DRA all suggest that Alex Cobb is an All-Star. The only number that doesn’t is a 3.81 ERA and even that is down to 2.84 over his last 14 starts with seven of his last 10 being Quality Starts. He doesn’t have a great matchup against the Phillies (100 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP), now at full strength, but is simply undervalued for the underlying production.

Jeffrey Springs only rarely hits the 90 pitch mark, but has been one of the more impressive pitchers in the league on a pitch by pitch basis. He’s struck out 27% of batters faced with just a 5.6 BB% and has allowed just 6.6% Barrels/BBE on an 87 mph EV. The 81.9 LOB% probably ends up regressing some, explain the difference between his 2.76 ERA and estimators ranging from a 3.13 xFIP to a 3.48 xERA. While he does face the mighty Yankees (124 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 10.1 BB%, 18.0 HR/FB vs LHP), he does so costing just $7.3K in a negative run environment, while the Yankees have just a 58 wRC+ over the last week.

Lastly, one of the cheapest pitchers on the board, Davis Martin has just a 16.9 K% (8.5 K-BB%) with a 4.62 ERA nearly matching a 4.64 SIERA with all estimators within one-third of a run, but he also has a 12.8 SwStr% and 30%+ strikeout rate at both AA and AAA this season. There are still some possibilities here, even in a tough spot against the Twins (113 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP).

Tonight's Most Expensive Pitcher One of Many Top Arms in Difficult Spots

A 13 game Friday night slate offers four $10K pitchers and another two above $9K on both sites. Luis Castillo hit the double digit strikeout mark for just the third time this season last time out. Against Cleveland no less, after striking out just five in Oakland. The ground ball rate isn’t much more than average this year (45.8%), but he’s made up for it with a 27.2 K% (19.6 K-BB%) and has still allowed just 5.6% Barrels/BBE. There’s still some separation between his 2.85 ERA and all estimators above three, but only a 3.37 SIERA by more than half a run. The Guardians (102 wRC+ with a league low 17.5 K% vs RHP) have trouble with fastballs (-0.26 wFB/C), while Castillo’s four-seamer has a 35.8 Whiff% with a wOBA and xwOBA below .250 this year. But should we expect a repeat performance for the most expensive pitcher on the board (though just third most on DraftKings)? According to early PlateIQ Projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day), the short answer is no. He projects as just tonight’s seventh best arm and bottom half of the board value on either site. For much more on all of tonight’s most expensive arms, including the top projected pitcher and value on the board, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Salvador Perez scratched Wednesday

Salvador Perez scratched Wednesday

Stacking Projections Suggest Players Looking for Value Over Potency

With Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole costing in excess of $11K on FanDuel tonight, it’s the cheaper offense rather than the best one that projects to be most popular tonight with the Chicago White Sox the only stack currently projecting for double digit ownership (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). The White Sox also project for double digit DraftKings ownership, but are slightly behind the Braves, who have the second highest team run total (5.29) against Ryan Feltner. As they did yesterday against Jose Urena, the Braves once again to smash the slate most often, almost 50% more often than any other team. The White Sox also project to be the top FanDuel value stack tonight, though not as separated from the board as you may think. Only the Tigers project for more value than the White Sox on DraftKings, though by a pretty large margin. With players potentially opting for value over potency with their stacks, are the top offenses actually the top rated stacks? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Tons of Value Projected in This Lineup Against Struggling Lefty

Current PlateIQ projections for FanDuel (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) suggest the most value can be found in the Chicago White Sox lineup and with Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole costing in excess of $11K, players may need to take advantage of this. Kris Bubic has been shelled for 14 runs over his last 13.1 innings, striking out just 10 of 69 batters. Though only 28.3% of his contact has been on the ground over this span, he’s allowed just two barrels with a .490 BABIP, which can further be explained by the 39.6 LD%. He’s now sitting on a 5.62 ERA without an estimator below four and a half. RHBs have a .333 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against him this season. A.J. Pollock (157 wRC+, .315 ISO vs LHP this season), Romy Gonzalez (355 wOBA, .503 xwOBA vs LHP), Josh Harrison (92 wRC+) and Yasmani Grandal (156 wRC+) all cost $2.5K or less.

The White Sox are the only team to project multiple top 10 values on FanDuel, where on DraftKings we find two teams projecting a pair of top values, both in the same game in Detroit, where Marco Gonzales faces Tyler Alexander. Despite a 13.0 K% (5.9 K-BB%), 14 of Gonzales’s 25 starts have been Quality Starts. While the most obvious reason for this would be 11 unearned runs, eight of them came over his first three starts and none of them would have changed a Quality Start to one that wasn’t. He just seems to sequence his runs in bunches. His lowest estimator is a 4.82 xERA and he’s struck out more than five just once since April. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .331 and .364 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. Victor Reyes (91 wRC+) and Miguel Cabrera (109 wRC+) are top three projected values on DraftKings tonight for $2.3K or less.

Over his last three starts, Tyler Alexander has struck out just seven of 67 batters with five home runs, nine barrels (16.4%) and a 92.4 mph EV. On the season, he’s allowed 10.9% Barrels/BBE with a 12.3 K% and no estimators below his 4.83 ERA. RHBs are within five points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. Sam Haggerty (280 wRC+, .359 ISO) and Abraham Toro (78 wRC+) each cost the minimum, while Carlos Santana (139 wRC+, .141 ISO) is actually the top projected FanDuel value for $2.3K.

Top Projecting Bat Despite Lefty on Lefty Matchup

The Toronto Blue Jays have a half run advantage over the remainder of an 18 team field at 5.79 implied runs. The Braves (5.29), Phillies (5.03) and White Sox (5.01) are the other offenses exceeding five run team totals tonight with only the Mariners (4.73) additionally above four and a half runs. That gives us a few distinct tiers with which to operate. The Blue Jays do land a couple of bats among the top 10 projections tonight, but no more than the usual pair, while a couple of other offenses feature more.

Despite facing a LHP, the top projected bat on tonight’s board is Bryce Harper, who has had little issue with same handed pitching this season (161 wRC+, .232 ISO), nor has Kyle Schwarber (104 wRC+, .226 ISO), who also projects among the top 10 bats tonight. Tommy Henry has struck out exactly three in four of his five starts (seven Cardinals in the other) and is sitting on just 6.1 K-BB% with a 90.2 mph EV. He has a 3.25 ERA, but all non-FIP estimators are above five (82.3 LOB%). Statcast reverses his actual reverse split (RHBs .304 wOBA, but .353 xwOBA & LHBs .322 wOBA, but .299 xwOBA), though we’re still dealing with a very small sample.

The Braves plug four batters into the top 10 tonight (three on FanDuel), though they didn’t get it done against Jose Urena last night. Ryan Feltner has just a 13.5 K% over his last seven starts (one Quality Start) and has allowed multiple barrels in seven of 12 starts (9.1%). Season estimators range from a 4.29 xFIP to a 5.72 xERA, all a bit below his 5.87 ERA (64.3 LOB%). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs at least 30 points higher, which is bad news against a predominantly right-handed lineup. Matt Olson (127 wRC+, .267 ISO), Austin Riley (124 wRC+, .225 ISO), Michael Harris (148 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Dansby Swanson (112 wRC+, .160 ISO) project to do just fine without Ronald Acuna.

Luke Farrell has walked just one of the 32 batters he’s faced with just a single barrel (3.8%), but has also struck out just five with a 4.8 SwStr% and has generated less than a quarter of his contact on the ground with a 90.9 mph EV. He had just an 8.1 K-BB% at AAA this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (146 wRC+, .228 ISO) and George Springer (141 wRC+, .218 ISO) project to do the most damage tonight.

A 5.00 ERA with a 21.2 K-BB% Suggests This Pitcher Could Be Under-valued

Mitch White has struck out 19.1% of batters faced this season with just an 8.3 SwStr% and 90.1 Z-Contat%, but there has been some life in a contact profile that’s allowed just 5.5% Barrels/BBE and 32.8% 95+ mph EV. The result is a 3.87 xERA that’s his only non-FIP estimator below four. None the less, he currently projects as the top value on FanDuel for less than $11K. You’re probably not using him in a single pitcher site, even against the Cubs (98 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), though he may be a reasonable SP2 arm on DraftKings for less than $7K. Anibal Sanchez (against Oakland) and James Kaprielian (against Washington) are also cheap, strong projecting values who you are not considering on FanDuel. Two who may have a bit more of an argument are Bailey Falter ($7.1K) and Lance Lynn ($8.9K).

Falter has three straight Quality Starts, his first three of the season and is sitting on a very respectable 15.4 K-BB% on the season. A 29.3 GB% will probably be a problem in Philly and has with a 16.7 HR/FB, as he’s seen 12 of 14 barrels (9.3%) leave the park. Due to the extreme fly ball lean, a 4.09 SIERA is his only estimator below a 4.41 ERA. Arizona has just a 93 wRC+ and 23.0 K% vs LHP, but has some life injected into their lineup with recent callups and has hammered Philly pitching in this series so far.

Lance Lynn has a 27.0 K-BB% over his last eight starts, but is just recently starting to get the results befitting of such numbers, allowing four earned runs over his last 17.2 innings. Yet, he still have a 5.00 ERA on the season with a 21.2 K-BB%, due to a 17.9 HR/FB and 64.9 LOB% with 15 of his 20 barrels (8.8%) leaving the yard. His worst non-FIP estimator is a 4.09 xERA with contact neutral estimators below three and a half. Against the Royals (90 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP) with a pitcher friendly umpire, he is certainly a pitcher you can consider on either site, even as a deGrom/Cole alternative for more than $2K less. Lynn projects as the third best DraftKings value for $8K.

One other arm to consider might be Joe Ryan. He registered his first two Quality Starts since the beginning of July last two times out, but also has a 29.2 K% (21.7 K-BB%) over his last seven starts now. The extreme fly ball lean (27.6 GB%) is still an issue with 17 home runs and 29 barrels (9.3%), but he’s also generated a 16.1 IFFB% and is up to a 16.9 K-BB% on the season. While most estimators are above four the .254 BABIP does fit the contact profile and his 3.65 ERA aligns well with a 3.71 xERA. The Red Sox have a 97 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP.

Top Projected Arm Despite the Worst Matchup

A nine game Wednesday night slate finds four pitchers reaching the $10K price point on FanDuel (two on DraftKings), but no others exceeding $9K on both sites. Most expensively, Jacob deGrom has struck out 46 of 103 batters faced (21.9 SwStr%) with two walks and three barrels (5.5%). His slider has a 52.3 Whiff%. DRA thinks he “deserves” a 2.46 ERA. Also, DRA is stupid. All other estimators are well below two. Despite the toughest matchup on the board (Dodgers 125 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 10.0 BB% vs RHP), deGrom projects in an essential tie for the top spot on the board, which basically means that deGrom is always going to be the top projected pitcher on any board. Citi Field is a negative run environment, but with slight hitter friendly weather expectations via Weather Edge. Find tonight’s top projected value and worst projected value in Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Chas McCormick scratched Wednesday

Chas McCormick scratched Wednesday

Projections Are Pretty Clear On Who They Expect to Smash This Slate

On a 12 game slate where the Braves top the board (5.76 implied runs) by more than half a run, we do have one stack currently projecting for double digit ownership on either site (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), though it’s not the same team. The Braves are expected to be the most popular stack on DraftKings tonight, by a bit over the Brewers, who project to be the most popular stack over the Braves by a slightly wider margin on FanDuel. There is a clear answer that simulations give us in terms of smashing the slate and that’s the Braves by at least a three to one margin over any other offense on the board. We have some separation in the Value% column on either site too. The Kansas City Royals project as the top value stack on FanDuel. Lucas Giolito is no longer struggling with the long ball, but strikeouts are down (25.3%) and BABIP (.357) is up, while Weather Edge suggests some extremely hitter friendly conditions in Chicago tonight. On DraftKings, the Tigers project as the top value stack. This is not pretty, as they’re the worst offense in the league against RHP, while George Kirby is a good pitcher and the Seattle bullpen may be the best, but Detroit bats are incredibly cheap tonight. Which stacks project the best Leverage Ratings? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

The Spot to Find Value Bats on Either Site Against Struggling Pitcher

Atlanta may be the lineup with all the top projecting bats, but they’re somewhat expensive. What players really need with all the expensive pitching on this board are value bats and projections suggest that Minnesota is the place to find those. The Kutter Crawford starting experiment has derailed in a hurry. He’s struck out just 16 of his last 89 batters with a 28.6 GB%, 91.9 mph EV and 12.5% Barrels/BBE. The result has been 20 earned runs over his last 19.1 innings. His full season body of work still includes a 15.0 K-BB% with estimators ranging from a 3.99 SIERA to a 4.60 xERA, but that doesn’t appear to be who he is in a starting role at this point. He does have a rather large split with LHBs owning a .397 wOBA (.362 xwOBA) against him this season. Nick Gordon (115 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP this season) is a top three projecting value on either site for $2.2K or less. Jake Cave (81 wRC+, .225 ISO) is also a top projecting value on either site at minimum cost. Max Kepler (102 wRC+, .135 ISO) is a top 10 projected value for $2.5K on FanDuel.

FanDuel projections also find value in one of the top lineups tonight. Not Atlanta, but Milwaukee. Mitch Keller has struck out just 13 of his last 108 batters with a 42.9 GB%. His 4.30 ERA over this five spot span is a bit misleading because six of the 17 runs he’s allowed have been unearned. His season ground ball rate has dropped to 49.5% with just a 10.2 K-BB%. His 4.50 matches his 4.50 DRA, but is slightly above other estimators, which drop as far as a 3.99 FIP with just 11 of 29 barrels exiting the park. Batters from either side are between a .314 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while the Pittsburgh pen has been heavily worked recently too. Jace Peterson (106 wRC+, .188 ISO) is your top projecting FanDuel value, costing the minimum. For just $100 more, you get Omar Narvaez (86 wRC+, .131 ISO). Kolten Wong (132 wRC+, .206 ISO) costs $2.7K.

Aside from Minnesota, you’re looking at some awful offenses (Royals, Athletics, Tigers) at minimal cost for top projecting values…essentially punts. Victor Reyes (104 wRC+) and Harold Castro (84 wRC+) cost the minimum, though LHBs are below a .255 wOBA and xwOBA against Goerge Kirby and the Seattle bullpen may be the best in the league. Michael Massey (105 wRC+) and Michael A. Taylor (95 wRC+) also cost the minimum against Lucas Giolito (RHBs .406 wOBA, .372 xwOBA, but LHBs below .280). Jonah Bride (89 wRC+) and Chad Pinder (77 wRC+) for the same price against Erick Fedde (batters from either side between a .324 to .346 wOBA and xwOBA). In fact, Sean Murphy (107 wRC+, .161 ISO) is the only projected Oakland bat costing more than $3K on DK.