DFS Alerts

Despite Still Limited Workload, This Pitcher Could Be Worth His Enormous Price

A cozy little six game Thursday night slate still includes three $10K pitchers (two on DraftKings), though nobody else exceeding $9K on both sites. How good do you have to be when striking out nine of 25 Braves, allowing only five hits without a walk and three runs over 6.2 innings is a massive disappointment? That’s what life is like when you’re Jacob deGrom, who has only returned from a year long absence to strike out 37 of 81 batters so far (22.9 SwStr%), while walking just one and allowing two barrels (4.7%). His 2.31 ERA is below a 2.63 DRA (what are they smoking?), but more than three-quarters of a run above every other estimator. Go ahead and let that sink in, while you think about what he’s likely to do to the Rockies (85 wRC+, 21.2 K% vs RHP), who are the sixth worst offense in baseball against fastballs (-0.23 wFB/C). The most expensive pitcher on the board ($12.5K on FanDuel even with a likely pitch count around 85) is essentially tied for the top projected spot on DraftKings, but only second best on FanDuel by just a couple of points. DeGrom projects as the second best value on either site. For more on tonight’s top arms, including a pitcher who may project better than deGrom, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Which Stacks Projects to Be the Top Stack & Have the Most Value?

Five offenses separate themselves atop an eight game slate tonight with current stacking projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) believing the Phillies will be the most popular stack with the highest implied run line on the board (5.62). In fact, they are the only stack currently projecting for double digit ownership on FanDuel, about 50% more than second most popularly projected stack. The Phillies also smash the slate most often in early simulations, though the Toronto Blue Jays (5.18) project right on their heels. FanDuel value projections give the Phillies a clean sweep. They project for many of the top bats on the board at cheap prices. They project for around 50% more value than the next most valuable stack. DraftKigns value projections find the White Sox and Reds in a virtual tie at the top. Are the Phillies going to be too popular tonight? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Finding Top Projected Values in the Top Lineups

The bottom of tonight’s pitching board is frightening, which means players paying up for pitching are going to need some value bats. The interesting thing for FanDuel players is that you can find a ton of that in the top offense on the board (Phillies 5.62 implied run line). Four of the top five projected values on FanDuel tonight are Phillies and while part of that is that they project so well overall that they’re still great values at marginal prices, there’s also a min-priced bat in there. T.J. Zeuch has 57 innings of major league experience over four seasons with an ERA and estimators above five. He’s allowed 12 runs and four home runs in just eight innings this year. Philadelphia is not as positive a run environment as Cincinnati, but it’s not that far behind. Kyle Schwarber (131 wRC+, .311 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board and the top projected FanDuel value with Rhys Hoskins (108 wRC+, .207 ISO) appearing atop both boards as well. Each cost $3.2K. Nick Castellanos (93 wRC+, .144 ISO) costs just less than $3K, while Bradley Zimmer (34 wRC+, .154 ISO) costs the minimum and is a top two projected value on both sites.

FanDuel also makes Toronto stacks a bit easier. With the third highest implied run line on the board (5.18), the Toronto projected lineup features two top projected bats (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. & George Springer) against Bryan Bello, who has struck out just 15 of 87 batters (9.1 SwStr%) with 11 walks, but has kept 65.5% of his contact on the ground with an 86.6 mph EV, allowing just two barrels (3.4%). His 3.98 xERA is about half a run less than contact neutral estimators. In this small sample, batters from either side of the plate are within a point of a .445 wOBA against Bello and while xwOBA drops them both more than .100 points, the bad news for Bello is that RHBs are still 25 points higher (.324). Pairing those two with top projected values in Alejandro Kirk (144 wRC+, .157 ISO) and a min-priced Cavan Biggio (113 wRC+, .160 ISO) completes your stack. Again here, the min-priced Biggio is a top projected value on either site.

We complete our top 10 projected value list with a trio of White Sox on FanDuel. Spenser Watkins still isn’t going to get much done with a 14.3 K%, but the rest of his profile isn’t as disastrous as years past at least. While an 89.9 mph EV and 8.8% Barrels/BBE are still a bit worse than average, he has one of the better walk rates in the league (6.6%). With the new dimensions in Baltimore, only nine of his 23 barrels have left the yard, which explains the difference between his 4.04 ERA, 4.34 FIP and additional estimators ranging from a 4.82 xFIP/xERA to a 5.06 DRA. His reverse split (RHBs .335 wOBA, .348 xwOBA) is great for the park now, but could play poorly against the White Sox. A.J. Pollock (65 wRC+, .071 ISO), Eloy Jimenez (152 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Gavin Sheets (109 wRC+, .171 ISO) all project as top FD values for $2.8K or less. Sheets doubles as a top DraftKings value for $2.3K.

A pair of Reds and Royals appear among the lower half of the top 10 projected values on DraftKings, more due to their cost and lineup positioning than their own merits or even the matchups. Zac Gallen hasn’t allowed a run in three starts and batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. However, Michaels Massey (126 wRC+, .125 ISO) and A. Taylor (102 wRC+, .079 ISO) both cost the minimum. In Philadelphia, Cristopher Sanchez went through the order twice in his only start of the season against the Nationals with the rest of his 23.2 innings coming out of the pen for the Phillies. He’s been utilized more as a starter at AAA, where he has a modest 15.2 K-BB%. At the major league level, he’s struck out 18 of 97 batters this year (7.3 SwStr%) with nine walks and six barrels (9.0%), but a 27.1 Z-O-Swing% and 58.2 GB%. RHBs have a .268 wOBA, but .367 xwOBA against him this season. Nick Senzel (64 wRC+, .075 ISO) and Aristides Aquino (33 wRC+, .086 ISO) cost $2.2K or less.

Powerful Lineups Projected to Punish a Pair of Spot Starters

Coors may not be on the eight game slate tonight, but a handful of spot starters are and the result is a full quarter of the board above five implied runs tonight with Houston (4.9) not far behind before we separate by more than half a run to the remainder of the board. The top offense on the board is the Phillies (5.62) in a home matchup against…now T.J. Zeuch, who has 57 innings of major league experience over four seasons with an ERA and estimators above five. He’s allowed 12 runs and four home runs in just eight innings this year. Philadelphia is not as positive a run environment as Cincinnati, but it’s not that far behind. Kyle Schwarber (131 wRC+, .311 ISO) is the top projected bat on this board, while Rhys Hoskins (108 wRC+, .207 ISO) is the third best projected bat with J.T. Realmuto (116 wRC+, .170 ISO) also among the top 10 projections.

The Phillies are the only offense to feature more than a pair of bats among the top 10 projections tonight, but two more offenses land a pair on that list. The second highest team total belongs to the Dodgers tonight (5.28). Adrian Houser makes his return from a nearly two month IL stay, having worked his way up to two full trips through the order, though just 3.1 innings in his most recent of three rehab starts. He was scheduled for another one before Aaron Ashby went down. Houser was generating fewer ground balls this year (47.3%) and more walks (9.2%) with just a 17.0 K%, while LHBs have punished him (.385 wOBA, .343 xwOBA), as they generally do. The Dodgers also punish fastballs (0.81 wFB/C) and Houser throws his sinker about half the time (49.2%, -0.1 RV/100, .372 wOBA, .378 xwOBA). Freddie Freeman (172 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Mookie Betts (137 wRC+, .252 ISO) are your top projected Dodgers. RHBs have just a .282 wOBA against Houser this year, but a .329 xwOBA. Every batter in the Dodger projected lineup exceeds a .150 ISO vs RHP this season with only Cody Bellinger (96) below a 105 wRC+ and that includes Joey Gallo (118).

The Blue Jays have tonight’s third highest team run total (5.18). Brayan Bello has struck out just 15 of 87 batters (9.1 SwStr%) with 11 walks, but has kept 65.5% of his contact on the ground with an 86.6 mph EV, allowing just two barrels (3.4%). His 3.98 xERA is about half a run less than contact neutral estimators. In this small sample, batters from either side of the plate are within a point of a .445 wOBA against Bello and while xwOBA drops them both more than .100 points, the bad news for Bello is that RHBs are still 25 points higher (.324). The Toronto lineup is predominantly right-handed with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (147 wRC+, .233 ISO) and George Springer (140 wRC+, .221 ISO) projecting best, though this lineup is loaded too. Each of the first eight projected have at least a 110 wRC+ vs RHP this season.

Potential Top Value Has Pitched Exclusively Out of the Pen

When filtering LineupHQ by P/$, which are value projections, we’re finding a lot of the spot starter types pop atop the board, especially on FanDuel, where it’s a problem if they don’t make it through six innings. The top projected value on either site tonight is currently Mike Mayers (though projections are updated throughout the day). He has worked exclusively out of the pen this year, while his three major league career starts were more openings, but the Angels have been slowly stretching him out in the pen, up to where he threw 96 pitches in his last outing. His 14.2 K-BB% in relief is fine, but he’s allowed eight home runs and 12 barrels (13.5%) with just a 29.2 GB%, which is not necessarily a killer in this park. Mayers is still throwing his four-seamer (-1.4 RV/100, 21.8 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .280) about half of the time, even as he stretches out and includes more secondaries. That won’t necessarily hurt him here, as the Rays have struggled with fastballs this year (-0.23 wFB/C). He’s also pitching in the most negative run environment on the board tonight for $5.6K or less. He’s a viable arm here, especially as an SP2 on DraftKings. The Rays have a 101 wRC+ and 24.5 K% vs RHP this season.

Christopher Sanchez and Brayan Bello are currently top three projected FanDuel pitching values as well, but aren’t pitchers you want to consider using on a single pitcher site and may even be questionable in your SP2 spot tonight. Lucas Giolito projecting as a top five value on either site is a different story. He has allowed just four home runs on four barrels (2.5%) over his last 10 starts, but he’s also down to a 24.2 K% over that span (25.9% on the season) with a 5.26 ERA. However, estimators are below four over this span (16.5 K-BB%). What had been a home run problem is now a BABIP (.373) and strand rate (64%) problem. Neither is much fun, but this is less concerning that barrel issues and often times fixes itself with sequencing. Giolito’s season ERA (5.34) is still well above estimators ranging from a 3.61 xFIP to a 4.21 xERA. Not the Cy Young candidate we thought he might be, but better days should be ahead and his price is discounted (less than $9K) in the now pitcher friendly confines of Baltimore, facing a predominantly right-handed Orioles’ lineup (102 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs RHP) where we do have to be at least a bit concerned about his reverse split (RHBs .415 wOBA, .348 xwOBA).

Also projecting strongly from a value standpoint, like most of the St Louis rotation, Miles Mikolas lets his great defense (17 Runs Prevented) do a lot of the work (18.8 K%). What he does better that most of his rotation mates is walk just 4.4% of batters, which allows him to pitch even deeper into games. He’s gone at least seven innings in six of his last eight starts and at least eight in four of his last 14, including his last two. His 3.32 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.67 FIP to a 3.96 SIERA, but his defense might keep it there. Mikolas is sinker. four-seam, curveball about three quarters of the time. The Cubs have hit both fastballs (0.22 wFB/C) and sliders (0.07 wSL/C) better than most teams in the league. If you’re rostering Mikolas, it’s for the workload and run prevention, not the upside and he does cost $2K more on FanDuel. The Cubs have been a perfectly average offense vs RHP (100 wRC+, 23.1 K% vs RHP).

One extremely volatile arm that probably can’t be completely ignored on this slate is Jose Berrios. Coming into his last start, Berrios had allowed 13 runs over 7.2 innings with twice as many home runs and walks (four each) as strikeouts (two). He proceeded to strike out nine of 28 Yankees with one walk and no home runs. That’s the type of pitcher he is in a nutshell, though the barrels have been more frequent (11%) and the strikeouts much less so (20.9%) this season. His 5.39 ERA is well above most estimators, running as low as a 3.96 SIERA, but aligns nearly perfectly with a 5.36 xERA. On a positive note, Boston’s weak spot (-0.39 wCB/C) has been Berrios’s most frequent (32.3%) and best pitch this year (-0.5 RV/100, 31.5 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .280). They’ve also been a pretty mediocre offense against RHP (96 wRC+, 21.7 K%, 9.1 HR/FB), which sort of helps balance out the most positive run environment on the slate. Berrios costs just $7.2K on DraftKings, where he could help win someone a GPP, but if not, you’ll at least probably know early on.

Wednesday Night Slate Features a Clear Top Pitcher

An eight game Wednesday night slate includes three $10K pitches and another pair exceeding $9K on both sites, but also a handful of spot starter types, who may not be usable at all, which has the potential to bunch up ownership a bit. Despite 26.8 K-BB%, 51.8 GB%, 87.3 mph EV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE and 31% 95+ mph EV with 17 Quality Starts in his last 21 outings, Shane McClanahan appears to be playing second (or even third) fiddle to Justin Verlander’s fountain of youth and Dylan Cease’s ability to keep a lot of his runs from being earned in the American League this year. All he’s done is dominate fairly consistently and for at least seven innings in more than one-third of his starts. His 2.29 ERA is within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators. In the most negative run environment on the board, the most expensive pitcher on it has one of the best matchups against the Angels (81 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs LHP). He is the top projected pitcher on the board by a pretty wide margin and also a top five projected value (top three on DraftKings). However, this also means you’re very likely to see McClanahan in a ton of lineups. For potential McClanahan pivots and/or complements, including a potentially sneaky high priced GPP play, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Javier Báez (back) scratched Wednesday

Javier Báez scratched Wednesday

Gavin Lux scratched Tuesday

Gavin Lux scratched Tuesday

The start of Blue Jays-Red Sox will be delayed Tuesday due to rain

Game update: The start of Blue Jays-Red Sox will be delayed Tuesday due to rain

Coors is Not Projected to Smash the Slate Tonight

On a slate that includes all 30 teams, current projections for DraftKings (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) don’t project any single stack for double digit ownership, though the Rangers (at Coors) are a couple of percentage points above the pack. On FanDuel, it’s much the same, expect that the Rockies are the stack that separates from the group of 28 teams by a couple of points (though also still below ten percent). No offense projects to smash the slate even nine percent of the time on this large slate, but neither Coors offense is among the top three currently, despite topping the board at 5.25 implied runs apiece. It’s the Phillies and Blue Jays very closely atop the Smash% column right now with the Giants on their heels. The first two are facing rookie pitchers, one (Nick Lodolo) an actual prospect, the other (Josh Winckowski) a struggling spot filler. The Giants are also facing a struggling spot filler in Drew Hutchison. We do find some double digit numbers in Value projections, but it’s not the same stacks on both sites. On FanDuel, the Royals project as the top value stack, a bit ahead of the Giants, but on DraftKings, the platoon heavy Giants separate a bit more from their opponents (the Tigers) projecting for 50% more value, just above 20%. Find out which of these stacks currently project the best Leverage Ratings in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Cheap Lineup That Projects for Lots of Value on Both Sites

Pitching is expensive tonight and without a runaway offense above 5.25 implied runs, even with Coors on the docket, perhaps you want to fill up your lineup with value bats. For once, that doesn’t include the visiting lineup at Coors. While Brad Miller (73 wRC+) is currently the top projected DraftKings value, costing the minimum against German Marquez (LHBs .359 wOBA, .345 xwOBA), he is the only Texas (or Colorado bat) projecting as a top 10 value on either site tonight.

We do find a good chunk of the Kansas City lineup projecting as top values tonight, even with Vinnie Pasquantino expected to be out of it. Although Zach Davies did strike out six last time out and even went through a stretch where he struck out 25 of 100 batters in early June, he remains a low strikeout (18.3%) contact manager (86.3 mph EV, 31.9% 95+ mph EV). His 3.99 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 4.12 xERA to a 4.59 FIP, while he hasn’t completed six innings since before hitting the IL in June. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .296 and .324 wOBA and xwOBA against Davies this year (average is around .310) and the key here is a lot of Kansas City bats below $2.5K. On FanDuel, that includes MJ Melendez (99 wRC+, .182 ISO), a cheap leadoff bat, who is catcher eligible and projects as the top value on the site tonight, Hunter Dozier (92 wRC+, .168 ISO), Michael A. Taylor (102 wRC+) and Michael Massey (130 wRC+, .127 ISO). On DraftKings, Massey, Taylor and Nick Pratto (55 wRC+, .173 ISO) all cost no more than $2.1K.

Despite the abundance of Royals among the top 10 projected values, a pair of Phillies also find residence on that list, including Kyle Schwarber (104 wRC+, .221 ISO), who also projects as a top overall bat against Nick Lodolo (RHBs .368 wOBA, .323 xwOBA – LHB .304 wOBA, .256 xwOBA) and Nick Vierling (95 wRC+) with the latter costing just $2.1K. Vierling is also the third best projected value on DraftKings for $100 less.

We also find a pair of bottom half of the order left-handed Braves costing $2.1K or less against J.T. Brubaker (LHBs .333 wOBA, .313 xwOBA). Fortunately for Brubaker, he’ll be facing more RHBs than left, but Eddie Rosario (47 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Robbie Grossman (41 wRC+) project as top values. While their numbers against RHP this season are terrible, both have been a bit better in August with a 90+ wRC+ over the last 30 days.

The Only Offense Projecting Multiple Top 10 Bats on Both Sites

On a Tuesday night slate that includes the full 30 teams (or 28 on FanDuel), but is also loaded with top end pitching, we find two teams with 5.25 implied runs lines (both at Coors) topping the board. The Blue Jays (5.06) are the only other team exceeding or reaching a five run team total with seven more at four and a half or higher. Without either of the Coors offenses running away on a closely bunched board, this should be interesting. The results from the standpoint of batter projections (PlateIQ projections are updated throughout the day and subject to change), is that only a single team boasts multiple hitters among the top 10 tonight and it’s not a Coors offense. Despite a 13.5 K% (5.6 K-BB%) the Red Sox just keep running Josh Winckowski out there because they seemingly have no choice. He’s somehow allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE, despite a 50.5 GB%. Essentially, one-fifth of his non-ground ball contact have been barrels. His 5.19 ERA is not that far above estimators ranging from a 4.62 xFIP to a 5.22 FIP. The projected Toronto lineup is entirely right-handed tonight and batters from that side have a .343 wOBA, but .316 xwOBA against Winckowski this season. In a hitter friendly environment like Fenway, that’s more than enough for this offense. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (145 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP this season) and George Springer (142 wRC+, .223 ISO) are top projected bats tonight, but the first seven in tonight’s projected lineup all exceed a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. The largest problem here is that this is the riskiest game on the slate from a weather perspective. A delay won’t change things much, but a dreaded PPD could have a massive effect on the entire slate, separating Coors bats further from the rest of the board.

A pair of Phillies feature as top 10 projected bats only on FanDuel tonight against Nick Lodolo, who is actually one of the more expensive pitchers on the board. The young prospect has flashed signs of greatness, but hasn’t put it all together at the big league level yet. While he’s one of the few pitchers in the league that can call Philadelphia a park upgrade, it’s still a positive run environment and very power friendly and Lodolo has had his issues with RHBs (.368 wOBA, .323 xwOBA). However, it’s a LHB (.304 wOBA, .256 xwOBA), who projects best against him. Kyle Schwarber has been nearly as dangerous against same-handed pitching (104 wRC+, .221 ISO), while Rhys Hoskins has really punished southpaws (179 wRC+, .303 ISO).

Aaron Judge (200 wRC+, .360 ISO) homered off Max Scherzer last night and is the top projected bat on the board against Taijuan Walker (RHBs .274 wOBA, .314 xwOBA), who left his last start early due to a back issue. A single Coors bat from each team project among the top 10 tonight, both from the left side. Corey Seager (121 wRC+, .189 ISO) is in a great spot against German Marquez (LHBs .359 wOBA, .345 xwOBA), while Dane Dunning sizeable splits (LHBs .369 wOBA, .346 xwOBA) should help him against a predominantly right-handed lineup, but not against Charlie Blackmon (90 wRC+, .200 ISO).

Some Top Projected Pitching Values Are Lower Priced Arms

One-third of the board costing $9K or higher are covered in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog, but that doesn’t include all of tonight’s top projected values. In fact, four of the top five projected point per dollar values on FanDuel cost less than $9K, but the question is whether you would consider using them on a single pitcher site or not. The top projected value on either site is Zach Logue, who would absolutely not consider at all on his own merits. His 6.35 ERA isn’t even above all estimators, ranging from a 5.34 SIERA to a 6.44 DRA. With only 28% of his contact on the ground 10 of 19 barrels (12.5%) have left the yard with a 6.9 K-BB%. That’s all pretty atrocious, but he’s also potentially in the top spot on the board. Despite the predominantly right-handed lineup (.395 wOBA. .383 xwOBA against Logue), the Marlins have the worst splits on the board in terms of wRC+ (70) and strikeout rate (28.2%) against LHP. In addition, Oakland is one of the most pitcher friendly environments in the league, while Logue costs $6.3K or less on either site. The only additional negative here is a hitter friendly umpiring assignment behind the plate. Enough to consider on a single pitcher site? Probably still a better SP2 in GPPs.

Opposing Logue, a first inning grand slam ensured that Pablo Lopez would not pick up a Quality Start for the seventh time in eight starts, having gone past the fifth inning in just two of those. The odd thing is that his velocity has actually increased over the last month, yet he’s allowed 18 runs over his last 18 innings with just a 14.8 K% and nine barrels (12.9%). While regression was expected from his early season league ERA leadership, he’s now come completely full circle to the point where his 3.83 ERA exceeds every estimator except for a 3.90 xERA. No estimator is more than a quarter run below actual results though. The Oakland offense (MLB worst -0.58 wCH/C, 82 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP) may be just what the doctor ordered for Lopez’s changeup (35.8%, -1.1 RV/100, 37.5 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .290). In the $8K range, Lopez projects as the third best value on either site and is probably the pitcher you’re more apt to consider on a single pitcher site.

Speaking of high upside matchups in negative run environments, perhaps Corey Kluber broke out of a BABIP fueled slump last time out against the Yankees (two runs over six innings with eight strikeouts). He had previously allowed 23 runs over 28.2 innings (.375 BABIP, 56.9 LOB%) with a 16.2 K-BB% that’s exactly two points below his 18.2% season rate. A league average strikeout rate (21.7%) with an elite walk rate (3.5%) along with a contact profile that includes a 17.2 IFFB%, 87.2 mph EV and 6.1% Barrels/BBE allow him to consistently produce six inning efforts while rarely going beyond 90 pitches. A 28.9 Z-O-Swing% ensures that batters aren’t making their best contact. Never the less, a .311 BABIP and 68.2 LOB% suggest he’s run a bit bad (Tampa Bay defense .276 BABIP allowed) with his 4.33 ERA more than a third of a run above estimators that don’t reach four. A 92 wRC+ and 27.0 K% for the Angels against RHP this season help make Kluber a top five projected value on either site for within $300 of $8K on either site, where the largest concern (aside from BABIP) is workload.

Other than that, you’re probably opting for higher priced arms on FanDuel, but from the cheaper SP2 bin on DraftKings, Aaron Civale struck out a season high 10 of 22 batters last time out. It was the Tigers, but it was also interesting to note that his velocity has been up in both starts back from the IL so far. He has a healthy 17.9 K-BB% this season, but with some contact issues (8.9% Barrels/BBE) that have led to a 4.27 xERA, which is the only estimator he has above four. His 5.63 ERA is the further product of a .341 BABIP and 59.4 LOB% and should regress. He gets a park upgrade in San Diego against an offense that’s probably better than their season numbers against RHP (102 wRC+, 21.7 K%), but only costs $7K.

J.T. Brubaker is coming off his best start of the season, shutting out the Red Sox on two hits over seven innings, striking out seven. It was his seventh Quality Start in his last 15 outings. Brubaker has struck out batters at an above average rate (23.2%), walking them at an average one (8.6%) with last year’s home run issues seemingly non-existent (9.9 HR/FB, 7.3% Barrels/BBE). His 4.19 ERA sits in the higher end of his estimators, ranging from a 3.68 FIP to a 4.24 xERA. The Braves are a dangerous offense, but one with some upside for pitchers (105 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP) with a predominantly right-handed lineup in a park that suppresses RH power. Brubaker costs just $200 more than Civale.

Few Recent Ceiling Performances & Tough Matchup for Tonight's Most Expensive Arm

The Tuesday night slate includes the full 15 on DraftKings, while FanDuel wisely omits the second game of the St Louis/Chicago double-header to avoid running into lineup confirmation issues should the first game run long. It’s a season record seven $10K pitchers on the board with two more reaching the $9K mark on both sites. The most expensive pitcher on the board, Corbin Burnes hasn’t had a lot of ceiling games with just three Quality Starts in his last six and more than six strikeouts in just two of those starts, but still owns a tremendous 25.2 K-BB% and has allowed 5.5% Barrels/BBE on the season. He’s recorded sixth inning outs in 20 of his last 23 starts and all non-FIP estimators are below three. He runs into the top offense in the league tonight. Though the Dodgers were shut out by Eric Lauer and friends last night, their 126 wRC+ both at home and vs RHP (21.3 K%) tops the board in either category. With the most difficult matchup on a loaded pitching board, Burnes projects as just the sixth best arm tonight and a middle to bottom of the board value. On a positive note, this is likely the lowest ownership you’ll see Burnes at all season, which is probably worth taking a shot on in GPPs. All of tonight’s most expensive arms, from the most volatile to the potentially overpriced to the top projected pitcher on the board, are covered in Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Game update: Braves-Pirates expected to start at 8:05 pm ET Monday

Game update: Braves-Pirates expected to start at 8:05 pm ET Monday