DFS Alerts
Mike Foltynewicz has a 26.9 K%, but just a 7.9 SwStr% and continues to struggle with LHBs (.364 xwOBA since 2017)
Mike Foltynewicz has a shiny 26.9 K% that comes with just a 7.9 SwStr%. He struck out just three last time out. The Phillies do have a 26.4 K% vs RHP, so there’s not a complete lack of upside here, but LHBs continue to pummel him. They have a .364 xwOBA against him with a 34.5 Hard% (32.3 GB%) since last season. Rhys Hoskins (169 wRC+, .315 ISO vs RHP career) is just one of two RHBs they send up against him tonight. Among the LHBs, only Andrew Knapp (95) has a wRC+ below 105 against RHP since last season, though only Carlos Santana (114 wRC+, .211 ISO) exceeds a .200 ISO. He has just a 13 wRC+ (26.3 Hard%) over the last week. Nick Williams (115 wRC+) is sitting on exaclty a .200 ISO for his career against RHP and may be the most interesting bat in the middle of the lineup for $3.2K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins, Mike Foltynewicz
Cincinnati has an implied run line below four, but send a quartet of high powered bats (.200+ ISO vs RHP) against Junior Guerra
The Reds have just a team 3.96 implied run line in Milwaukee against Junior Guerra, but they are facing a pitcher who has allowed batters a .340+ wOBA and .350+ xwOBA from either side of the plate since last season. With a ground ball rate below 40%, we can look for some upside in several Cincinnati bats with pop in power friendly park. Joey Votto (160 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2017) hasn’t gotten it going this season yet, but it’s safe to say the man has established a track record. Jesse Winker (152 wRC+, .203 ISO) returns in the two spot. Scooter Gennett (134 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Adam Duvall (84 wRC+, .211 ISO) round out a high powered quartet, with all except Votto around the $3K mark or less on either site. Duvall has a 44.4 Hard% over the last week and RHBs have actually hit Guerra harder (37.3% to 30.2%) since last season.
Other tagged players: Junior Guerra, Adam Duvall, Scooter Gennett, Jesse Winker Corey Kluber headlines a group of four high upside (33+ K% in 2018) arms on Tuesday night
Although all on the upper end of the price range, Tuesday features several extremely high upside arms. Corey Kluber is the most expensive of these because he’s the guy players can most count on to give them at least seven innings, while piling up strikeouts more often than not. The majority of the uncertainty here comes from an unknown park in Puerto Rico, where the Indians and Twins play tonight. The great news for Kluber is that the Twins still have to hit the ball to do damage in any environment. Lance McCullers walked six Twins last time out, but that could be a function of an inability to grip breaking pitches in freezing temperatures in Minnesota. His hard contact rate is up overall through three starts, but player are getting a 14.8 SwStr% and 62.9 GB% for less than $10K. The Mariners aren’t a bad offense, but Seattle is still a pitcher’s park. Patrick Corbin has struck out 29 of 71 batters with a 17.9 SwStr%. Here, players are offered a 40% strikeout rate with a 62.2 GB% for less than $10K. The Giants should be better against LHP this season, but they haven’t been (81 wRC+, 24.6 K%). He struck out nine Giants in his last start. Shohei Ohtani had a poor spring and struggled for about three innings once the season started. He’s struck out 18 of 45 with a 23.5 SwStr%. However, this is the first time he won’t be facing Oakland and while both offenses have positive aspects, it’s safe to say Boston will represent a more difficult matchup. They have just a 16.3 K% vs RHP this season. A lot of Ohtani’s magnificence has been within the strike zone. He has an amazing 65.5 Z-Contact% through 13 innings.
Other tagged players: Patrick Corbin, Lance McCullers, Shohei Ohtani Nice Batted Ball Profile
Matt Carpenter doesn’t get the credit he deserves from the DFS community. Everyone just writes him off as a boring cash game play, even though he owns a .387 xwOBA against right-handed pitching. Tonight’s matchup against Tyler Chatwood bodes well for Carpenter. Not only has Chatwood struggled against lefties, but his biggest strength is inducing ground balls. Meanwhile, Carpenter has one of the lowest ground ball rates of any hitter in baseball.
Keep Playing this Outfielder
Matt Olson is a superstar. He hasn’t received the accolades just yet, but they are on their way. Since the beginning of last season, he owns a .394 xwOBA and a .376 ISO when facing right-handed pitching. He plays on an underrated offense and he gets to square off against Miguel Gonzalez, who is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs to left-handed hitters. I basically play Olson every time he faces a righty and tonight is no exception.
Great Value at Catcher
Wilson Ramos is one of the best value plays at catcher tonight. He draws a favorable matchup at home against Matt Moore, who is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters. Even though Ramos is getting up there in age, he still owns a .343 xwOBA against southpaws. He’s an elite option on DraftKings and I actually don’t mind using him on FanDuel if you are stuck and need a value play for the C/1B roster spot.
Solid Upside at a Discounted Price Point
Trevor Cahill has yet to make a start in the majors this season, but he pitched nearly six innings in last rehab start. After pitching out of the bullpen two years ago, he transitioned back into being a starter last season. While his ERA and WHIP were ugly, he did show some strikeout upside. He’s only $5,100 on DraftKings tonight and he gets to face the White Sox, whose projected lineup has a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Cahill should see plenty of run support with Miguel Gonzalez pitching opposite him, so if he can last five innings, we have to like his chances of picking up the win.
Easily the Top Pitcher of the Slate
The Klubs takes the mound tonight against the Twins. He is off to a tremendous start this season, posting a 2.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33% and a walk rate of 5%. In addition to the elite strikeout rate, he is very good at inducing soft and medium contact. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup against the Twins. While they do hit right-handed pitching very well, they have five projected starters with a 21%+ strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Even though this isn’t a great matchup, I’m willing to bet on the talent of Kluber.
Sneaky Value Team Stack
I wrote up Yonny Chirinos today, and while I like him as a potential SP2 play, I don’t mind attacking a Rangers stack on DraftKings. The entire team is 3.5k or less tonight, and you can build an entire team stack full of value hitters. This is the first time this season I’ve talked about a value stack, but with the pitchers on this slate, I love the idea of doing it. I think Chirinos is good, but if he has any issues and doesn’t make it past the third, we’re going to get a Tampa bullpen game. While there is a lot of strikeouts in this lineup, there is also a lot of power, and they have five hitters with wRC+ over 100 against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017. Here are the wOBA/ISO numbers against righties since the start of 2017: Joey Gallo .360/.339, Beltre .360/.199, Choo .333/.190, Mazara .329/.183, and Chirinos .335/.238.
Sneaky Value Team Stack
I wrote up Yonny Chirinos today, and while I like him as a potential SP2 play, I don’t mind attacking a Rangers stack on DraftKings. The entire team is 3.5k or less tonight, and you can build an entire team stack full of value hitters. This is the first time this season I’ve talked about a value stack, but with the pitchers on this slate, I love the idea of doing it. I think Chirinos is good, but if he has any issues and doesn’t make it past the third, we’re going to get a Tampa bullpen game. While there is a lot of strikeouts in this lineup, there is also a lot of power, and they have five hitters with wRC+ over 100 against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017. Here are the wOBA/ISO numbers against righties since the start of 2017: Joey Gallo .360/.339, Beltre .360/.199, Choo .333/.190, Mazara .329/.183, and Chirinos .335/.238.
Sneaky Value Team Stack
I wrote up Yonny Chirinos today, and while I like him as a potential SP2 play, I don’t mind attacking a Rangers stack on DraftKings. The entire team is 3.5k or less tonight, and you can build an entire team stack full of value hitters. This is the first time this season I’ve talked about a value stack, but with the pitchers on this slate, I love the idea of doing it. I think Chirinos is good, but if he has any issues and doesn’t make it past the third, we’re going to get a Tampa bullpen game. While there is a lot of strikeouts in this lineup, there is also a lot of power, and they have five hitters with wRC+ over 100 against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017. Here are the wOBA/ISO numbers against righties since the start of 2017: Joey Gallo .360/.339, Beltre .360/.199, Choo .333/.190, Mazara .329/.183, and Chirinos .335/.238.
Sneaky Value Team Stack
I wrote up Yonny Chirinos today, and while I like him as a potential SP2 play, I don’t mind attacking a Rangers stack on DraftKings. The entire team is 3.5k or less tonight, and you can build an entire team stack full of value hitters. This is the first time this season I’ve talked about a value stack, but with the pitchers on this slate, I love the idea of doing it. I think Chirinos is good, but if he has any issues and doesn’t make it past the third, we’re going to get a Tampa bullpen game. While there is a lot of strikeouts in this lineup, there is also a lot of power, and they have five hitters with wRC+ over 100 against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017. Here are the wOBA/ISO numbers against righties since the start of 2017: Joey Gallo .360/.339, Beltre .360/.199, Choo .333/.190, Mazara .329/.183, and Chirinos .335/.238.
Sneaky Value Team Stack
I wrote up Yonny Chirinos today, and while I like him as a potential SP2 play, I don’t mind attacking a Rangers stack on DraftKings. The entire team is 3.5k or less tonight, and you can build an entire team stack full of value hitters. This is the first time this season I’ve talked about a value stack, but with the pitchers on this slate, I love the idea of doing it. I think Chirinos is good, but if he has any issues and doesn’t make it past the third, we’re going to get a Tampa bullpen game. While there is a lot of strikeouts in this lineup, there is also a lot of power, and they have five hitters with wRC+ over 100 against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017. Here are the wOBA/ISO numbers against righties since the start of 2017: Joey Gallo .360/.339, Beltre .360/.199, Choo .333/.190, Mazara .329/.183, and Chirinos .335/.238.
Watch The Lineup
It’s tough to say what the Dodgers lineup will look like tonight, but if Joc cracks the lineup against the righty, he should play the entire game. The Padres bullpen is full of right-handed arms, which leads to Pederson staying in the game. The Dodgers are one of the top stacks on the slate for me tonight, and Pederson is $2,100 on FanDuel. Bryan Mitchell continues to show little to no strikeout ability. Since the start of 2016, he has a contact rate over 85% with a swinging strike rate right at 6%. He didn’t allow a lot of hard contact last season out of the bullpen, but that’s not been the case early in the season this year. Pederson has a .205 ISO with a 32.6% hard contact rate against righties since the start of 2017. Joc Pederson and Yasmani Grandal mash hard throwing righties, so with Mitchell averaging 94-96mph, they’re two of my top plays on the slate tonight.
Right Back At It
I talked about Cron yesterday, and I’m going right back there again tonight. Matt Moore has a 36% hard contact rate with a .332 wOBA against right-handed hitters since the start of 2017. His 5.20 xFIP suggest he’s just not pitching well against righties, and I’m taking advantage of that tonight. In 2017, he had a .187 ISO with a .344 xwOBA against righties. He threw his fastball over 50% and had a .250 ISO with a .399 xwOBA with a 6.5% swinging strike rate against righties. Like I said yesterday, Cron’s wOBA isn’t anything special against lefties, but he has a lot of power upside.