DFS Alerts
Houston, We Have Lift Off
SafeCo is commonly viewed as a pitcher’s park because, well, it is. But often overlooked is the fact that SafeCo actually plays average to slightly above average for power. That’s good news for Houston’s right handed power hitters as they’ll square off against southpaw Ariel Miranda who is making his season debut Tuesday night. Miranda is very susceptible to the long ball as he has a career 31.5% groundball rate and a poor 14.9% homerun to flyball ratio. The Astros have continued to crush left handed pitching in 2018 (121 wRC+) as they tied for first in that category last year (120 wRC+).
Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yulieski Gurriel, Evan Gattis
Limiting The Damage In The Cold
Like the title says, I really like Williams to limit the damage against the Rockies tonight. This is one of the coldest games on the slate, and it’s already in a very favorable pitchers ballpark. When looking for value pitchers on this slate, it’s tough, and that’s why most will pay up (not a bad idea). Since the start of 2017, Williams has a .329 wOBA with a .70 HR/9 against lefties, and his hard to soft contact ratio is .8%. He allows more hard contact to righties, and with Arenado out of this lineup, it’s not like the Rockies have a lot of right-handed power bats that are good against right-handed pitchers. He throws a fastball/sinker/changeup combo to lefties, and those pitches had a combined .117 ISO against lefties last season. I don’t love the upside here, but I think Williams could go 6 innings with one ER and post a 18+ on DK and 30+ on FD.
Big Reds
I mentioned in the Brewers blurb that game stacking isn’t a very common strategy in MLB DFS (except for maybe Coors game stacks) but the Brewers + Reds inarguably are two of the best offenses to target on Tuesday night. Interestingly, the Reds opened with an implied run total sitting at just 3.9 but I would expect that number to creep up as we get closer to first pitch. Junior Guerra has randomly shown flashes of brilliance throughout his time with the Brewers but season long projection sites look unfavorably upon him (ZIPS 5.00 ERA, STEAMER 4.76 ERA, THE BAT 4.95 ERA). While he only allowed 1 ER his first game of the year, Guerra only had a 5.8 SwStr% and left 83% of runners on base. When he’s off, Guerra has really struggled containing the long ball and this profiles as a strong HR matchup for Reds power hitters.
Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton What's Brewing
When looking at team’s to stack it never hurts to look at which team has the highest implied run total of the slate. Tuesday night that’s the Brewers as they take on Sal Romano and the Reds in Miller Park. Injuries have allowed Villar to creep back up into the leadoff spot for the Brewers and he has good power + stolen base upside for his cheap price tag. Romano has pretty even splits in his brief Big League career so you’re fine targeting some Brewers right handed hitters here as well. Baseball isn’t much of a “game stack” sport but Reds hitters are also a strong stack candidate.
Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw A Swing and a Miss
Ohtani + high price tag + poor matchup + Kluber vs Twins = low ownership. It’s extremely early in the season but Ohtani leads all starting pitchers, and is fourth overall (min 50 pitches), in terms of swing and miss percentage sitting at 47.3% (via Darren Willman @darenw). Notably, Patrick Corbin, who is also pitching on Tuesday night, sits in 11th overall at 43.2%. Guys who are able to get swings and misses at that sort of rate make great GPP targets as, get this, swings and misses lead to strikeouts! Ohtani’s 40% strikeout rate will surely drop as the season progresses but it does highlight the type of upside he gives you, regardless of matchup.
Worth A Look On DraftKings
I’m never a big fan of taking a pitcher that doesn’t pitch deep into games, but on DraftKings, it’s hard to overlook Yonny Chirinos as an SP2. He threw a season high 75 pitches against the White Sox in his last start and would be a steal if he throws 80+ pitches tonight against Texas. This lineup worries me, and I think in cash you pay up for two pitchers tonight. There are six projected starters with strikeout rates over 20% since the start of last season, which provides the upside at his price. He has a 3.07 SIERA with a 10.8% swinging strike rate in 14.1 innings this season. He’s yet to allow a home run and continues to have a 50% groundball rate. He had an above average groundball rate in AA and AAA last season.
DK Exclusive
I typically try to avoid writing up site specific plays but it’s worth highlighting Cahill’s DraftKings price + matchup versus the White Sox in his 2018 debut. Cahill worked as a relief pitcher for the Cubs in 2016 and then transitioned back into a starter in 2017 when he split an injury shortened season between San Diego and Kansas City. Cahill had a memorable, albeit short, stretch with the Padres where he racked up strikeouts and was good in terms of run prevention showing he has some decent upside at a $5,100 price tag. The matchup against the White Sox in Oakland is a good one and Cahill should see very little, if any, limitations as he threw 83 pitches in his last rehab start. FanDuel inexplicably left Cahill out of the player pool so you’ll have to look elsewhere for a value pitcher there.
Load Up The Top Of This Lineup
Along with Jose Altuve and George Springer, this Astros lineup is in an ideal spot against fly ball lefty Ariel Miranda. In 2017, Correa smashed lefties with a 43% hard hit rate and just 11.4% strikeouts. Though it;s only 17 AB, it is continuing this year against lefties with 42% hard hits, 75% line drives and a .435 wOBA. The middle infield is a good place to spend up tonight.
Slow Start = Too Cheap
The slow start to the season has left us with a proven, elite hitter at too low of a salary. He’s better suited to cash games on this sized slate, but he can be played in GPP’s as well in this ballpark. Junior Guerra just has nothing special to deal with a hitter of Votto’s caliber. Votto’s line drives and contact are as elite as ever, and the extra base hits will be coming sooner than later.
Take The Savings Here
This is a DraftKings only play, as there’s no need to use a catcher on the other sites tonight. With so much to pay up for across the other positions, this is an ideal place to save some money, while getting a strong hitter against a bad pitcher. Matt Moore allows hard hits and fly balls to right-handed batters, while Ramos has good contact ability and a history of success against fly-ball pitchers.
Elite Outfielder At A Savings
As much as I love Mike Trout and Bryce Harper tonight, Springer is in the better matchup at a significant savings. The salary makes him a higher priority spend for me tonight. Ariel Miranda is a high fly ball lefty with home run issues. That is not a good setup for him against this Astros team. In 2017, Springer had just a 12.2% K rate against lefties and a .423 OBP, .413 wOBA and .248 ISO. In a small sample size to open 2018 he has a silly 53% hard hit rate with 60% fly balls. I spy a home run.
Not Priced To Match The New Skills
SP2 is wide open tonight, and there is not one guy who stands out as both the cash game and GPP lock. I will not have as tight a pitching core as usual, but if forced to pick my #2 guy in all formats, I’ll start with Corbin at home against the Giants. It’s only been three starts and 18 innings, so we really can’t know how much of this new skill set is real, but there’s just nothing to argue with so far. It’s not just the elite 40.9% strikeouts and 17.9% swinging strikes, mostly on the back of his heavy slider usage. He’s also not walking anybody, with just four walks so far, and on top of that, he’s piled up a high 62% ground ball rate. The skills are just so far off the charts, that until he gets priced up to the $12k range, or starts to show decline, it’s hard to pass on this guy.
Flawless Skill Set From This Ace
There are several high end options at pitcher tonight, but Kluber stands alone at the top with his track record of elite skills. Yes, early season darlings Ohtani and Corbin have similar upside, but Kluber has been at an elite level for four years, which outshines 2-3 good starts. In 2017, Kluber’s 34.1% K rate was the 3rd highest in the league, his 4.6% walks were the 4th lowest and his 2.68 SIERA ranked 2nd. He has started out every bit as good this year with a 33.3% K rate and 4.9% walks. He’s as close to a guarantee as you can find in this league.
The Mets may have both tonight's most popular arm and bat
The New York Mets boast both the arm and bat with the highest projected ownership on Monday night. Neither should be much of a surprise on a night where the only lineup above five implied runs has had their game postponed and salary is not expected to be an issue. Premium subscribers can find out where player might be looking beyond Jacob deGrom and also find ownership projections for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership
Attack With Lefties
Losing the Blue Jays game tonight has made it tougher to find bats worth targeting. One of the most attackable skill sets on the board is lefties against Julio Teheran. He has shown no ability to get left-handed batters out, especially at home. Carlos Santana’s slow start can be blamed solely on unlucky BABIP, as he’s not striking out, and he’s hitting the ball hard. This is a well rounded skill set in a strong matchup.