DFS Alerts
Supreme Skills vs Lefties
Rendon was lights out against left-handed pitching in 2017, and he stands out a surprisingly weak third base pool tonight. Rendon had elite plate skills leading to a .448 OBP in 2017 against LHP, and had an inredibly low 10% soft hit rate which helped him to a .461 wOBA and .346 ISO. Kyle Freeland’s one strength is ground balls, but even that doesn’t stop Rendon, as he’s had no trouble with GB pitchers.
Huge Upside, Virtually No Downside
I love Betts on all sites in all formats, but he is notably underpriced on FanDuel. Chris Tillman has a long history of reverse splits power, and low strikeout ability. Betts does everything well. He almost never strikes out, he hits for power, he has speed, and he hits atop tonight’s #1 offense. In the early going this season, he has a 50% hard hit rate and .461 wOBA with more walks than strikeouts.
Attack This Pitcher Early And Often
There is no worse pitcher than Chris Tillman. Trust me, I’ve looked. In 2017, he just couldn’t get a left-handed batter out, with an awful 22:39 K:BB ratio and .429 wOBA allowed. Benintendi has strong skills against right-handed pitching with 16.9% K, .356 OBP and 36% hard hits. He is likely to either get walked and score, or be at the plate with runners on base and see a pitch to hit, and he is unlikely to miss it. I love him at this salary in cash games, as well as Boston stacks.
No Mystery At The Top
Cole is in a class of his own tonight. He has opened the season with back-to-back 11-K games for his new team. He has always had the underlying talent and pedigree for this type of breakout, and his jump in slider usage to go along with his 96-mph fastball has been too much for hitters to handle. Even if his strikeouts were to come back down towards his typical 23-24% range, he would still be tonight’s top pitcher at home against a Rangers team with tremendous strikeout risk. Given the safety of his ground balls and soft contact with the upside of his recent strikeout surge, everything lines him up as the play in all formats.
Boston remains a trouble spot in Kevin's evening update
Kevin is out tonight (congratulations on the upcoming nuptials!), so he won’t be around for Crunch Time for the next few days, but he did leave us a detailed forecast concerning one trouble spot he puts as a solid ORANGE tonight. A potential in game delay makes pitchers more of a risk than they already were against these powerful lineups. Hitters are a bit safer, but not out of the woods either with at least some PPD potential. Read Kevin’s full forecast, which includes a couple of high wind spots, on the Weather page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page
Unappetizing matchup between the Giants (Stratton) and Padres (Mitchell) only on the FanDuel main slate
San Francisco at San Diego is not on the main DraftKings slate, but is on the five game board at FanDuel. It’s an unappetizing matchup from any angle, pitting Chris Stratton against Bryan Mitchell in a negative run environment. Both teams have a below average wRC+ with a strikeout rate above 25% against RHP this year. Mitchell has walked nine and struck out one in two starts this year, somehow nearly cutting in half a 6.4 SwStr% from last year. Stratton had a useful 19.9 K% last season until you realize that aside from striking out 10 batters twice, he failed to strike out more than four in all but one of his other eight starts last year. He walked four in his last start and has not exceeded four strikeouts in either of his two starts. If you must, Brandon Belt (131 wRC+, .409 xwOBA, .252 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is a cheap bat ($2.4K), who’s a much better hitter than his home park lets him look and LHBs have a .359 wOBA against Mitchell since last season. Eric Hosmer (151 wRC+, .191 ISO), Joe Panik (112 wRC+, .166 ISO), Cory Spangenberg (115 wRC+, .170 ISO), Jose Pirela (109 wRC+, .162) and Andrew McCutchen (102 wRC+, .163 ISO) are the only other bats who are even average against RHP since last year. Though Franchy Cordero (95 wRC+, .225 ISO, 40 Hard%) hits the ball hard and is in the leadoff spot at a minimum cost ($2K). The San Francisco lineup is not yet confirmed.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Chris Stratton, Bryan Mitchell, Franchy Cordero, Cory Spangenberg, Jose Pirela, Andrew McCutchen, Joe Panik Nick Tropeano missed all of 2017, struck out seven of 16 batters in lone AAA start this year
Nick Tropeano missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery. He’s started one game in AAA this year, striking out seven of 16 batters, but also walking three. In 127.2 major league innings, he has a 21.7 K% and 9.1 BB%, generating just 36.2% ground balls, a trait that does not necessarily hurt him in Kansas City tonight. LHBs have a much higher career .342 wOBA against him while he’s been league average against RHBs with the only real difference a walk rate that more than doubles with a platoon disadvantage. The Royals, who are likely to see a lot of the Los Angeles bullpen, have a middling 4.42 implied run line, on par with the Yankees tonight, making Kansas City bats an interesting pivot off much more expensive New York bats if you buy into Vegas. Lucas Duda (128 wRC+, .300 ISO, 41.9 Hard%, 49.8 FB% vs RHP since last season) and Mike Moustakas (124 wRC+, .273 ISO, 47.1 FB%) are the key bats, though no longer as much of a bargain. No other LHB in the lineup has a wRC+ above 98 or an ISO above .155 vs RHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Mike Moustakas Ian Kennedy has not allowed a HR yet, but has a 46.7 Hard% through two starts
The Angels (5.08) are the third of three teams with an implied run line above five on a five game slate tonight. Ian Kennedy, after allowing 34 HRs last season, has failed to allow on either to the White Sox (at home) or Cleveland (away) through two starts, striking out 13 of 45 batters, while allowing a single run. He’s always been able to miss a few bats, but the other results may be a bit fluky with a 21.4 GB% and 46.7 Hard% so far. The latter is five points above last year, when he ran a board worst 89.3 mph aEV and 11.3% Barrels/BBE to support a .353 xwOBA, .388 at home. The Angels have demolished RHP (127 wRC+) this year and all pitchers over the last week (152 wRC+) and while Kennedy had virtually no split last season (LHBs .330 wOBA – RHBs .328 wOBA), his xwOBA was over 30 points higher against batters from either side. An extreme fly ball pitcher, he was likely aided and will continue to be by a big park that suppresses power, but not overall run scoring. Mike Trout (183 wRC+, .434 xwOBA, .342 ISO, 40.4 Hard%, 46.7 FB% vs RHP since 2017) is someone players are obviously looking to fit into lineups tonight, but he costs nearly as much as some pitchers. Justin Upton (120 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (238 wRC+, .409 ISO through his first 24 career PAs overall) both run expensive price tags as well, the latter potentially pricing himself out of consideration batting eighth tonight. Kole Calhoun (102 wRC+, .149 ISO) is merely an average bat, but appears to be the value play here, around $3K on either site. All eight batters in the lineup with more than 10 PAs over the last week (which excludes Ian Kinsler) has a wRC+ above 125 over that span.
Other tagged players: Ian Kennedy, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun The Rockies have a 29.1 K% against LHBs through 213 PAs this year
Gio Gonzalez had just an 8.8 SwStr% and escaped most of his estimators by around a run or more with a 2.96 ERA thanks to a .258 BABIP and 81.6 LOB% last year. Statcast does give him credit for 26.9% 95+ mph EV last year, lowest on tonight’s board. He’s off to a strong start this year (11.2 IP – 2 ER – 4 BB – 13 K) with an 11.5 SwStr%, but a concerning match in his GB and Hard hit rates (35.5% each). Despite that, he has to be held in high regard on this small slate against a Colorado team with a 29.1 K% against southpaws so far (213 PAs is second most in the majors vs LHP this year). He’s the second most expensive pitcher on either site, but salary should not be a large concern on a four or five team board. While Gonzalez has been better against LHBs (.241 wOBA) since last season, he’s been better than average against RHBs too (.293 wOBA, .306 xwOBA) that a predominantly right-handed lineup is not a large concern here. There’s still some merit to looking at strong RHBs against LHP here too. Gonzalez can still rack up enough strikeouts to hit value even if he runs into some trouble against Chris Iannetta (145 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP since last season), Nolan Arenado (220 wRC+, .408 ISO), DJ LeMahieu (138 wRC+, .189 ISO) or Trevor Story (145 wRC+, .338 ISO, 48.4 Hard%). All except Story (82) had a 100+ wRC+ on the road last season too.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu, Chris Iannetta, Nolan Arenado Rick Porcello has thrown more sinkers through two starts, has not allowed a HR yet
Rick Porcello gave up some of the hardest contact in the league last year (87.9 mph aEV, 8% Barrels/BBE), leading to 38 HRs allowed. Through two starts this season, he’s walked just one batter (19.6 K-BB%) and his hard hit rate is down 10 points (38.3% to 28.2%) with his ground ball up more than 10 points (51.3% from 39.2%). His sinker usage is back up around his career rate (44.8% up 14.4 points from last year). It’s a small sample and both starts were against the same opponent (Tampa Bay) and his velocity is down over a mile per hour. The Yankees pose a much larger threat, though their 4.43 implied run line is middle of the board. There were also significant weather concerns in Kevin’s early forecast. The Yankees get Aaron Hicks back tonight and can now boast a lineup where each of the first seven hitters had a 118 or better wRC+ and .180+ ISO against RHP since last season. Aaron Judge (178 wRC+, .443 xwOBA, .350 ISO, 43.3 Hard%), Giancarlo Stanton (138 wRC+, .311 ISO) and Didi Gregorius (134 wRC+, .253 ISO) have done the most damage with Gary Sanchez (118 wRC+, .240 ISO) and Hicks (120 wRC+, .211 ISO) not far behind. Gregorius (.306 wOBA, .301 xwOBA) is the only one of the first seven batters who has either a wOBA or xwOBA below .340 since 2016 via PlateIQ, should Porcello continue to go that route. LHBs have hammered him for a .354 wOBA (.351 xwOBA), 40.7 Hard% and 33.6 GB% since last season, which makes a potential change in approach a potential necessity. Porcello’s plan of attack may or may not have changed since last season, though a sinker heavy approach may not be ideal against these powerful Yankee bats.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, Rick Porcello Lucas Giolito has stumbled (7 BB, 5K) through two starts after an encouraging spring (17 K, 17.2 IP)
Lucas Giolito has been a prospect of various wide ranging opinions in recent years. He excited people again this spring, striking out 17 in 17.2 innings with four walks, but has now crashed with a nearly one mph drop in velocity through his first two starts (11.2 IP – 8 H – 8 ER – 0 HR – 7 BB – 5 K). His 8.2 SwStr% does suggest some improvement, as he sat at 10.1% through seven starts last year, but he’s going to have to start getting to strike three before ball four. One person’s guess is as good as another’s here. The Twins have a 5.23 implied run line that’s very slightly the highest on the board with Giolito not owning much of a platoon split through these nine starts per xwOBA (.326 LHBs – .308 RHBs). Right-handed batters have actually hit him slightly harder (35.2% to 30.4%) with a lower ground ball rate (40.9% to 44.9%) though. There may be some merit to taking a few shots with a once highly touted arm on a small slate, though his velocity is down over two miles per hour since debuting with Washington in 2016. A look at this Minnesota offense displays surprising proficiency against RHP since the start of last season. All except Byron Buxton (76 wRC+, .274 xwOBA, .157 ISO) exhibit an xwOBA above .320 against them. Only Buxton and Jason Castro (90 wRC+, .148 ISO) have a wRC+ below 100 against them. Of the remaining seven, only Joe Mauer (122 wRC+, .128 ISO) has an ISO below .200, but his .404 xwOBA is highest in the lineup, while his 41.1 Hard% against RHP since last year is only behind Miguel Sano (117 wRC+, .230 ISO, 45.5 Hard%). In other words, this is going to be a very dangerous lineup if he starts continues to hand out the free passes. Giolito has thrown his four-seamer over 50% of the time to batters from either side of the plate over his short career. Each of the first four hitters in tonight’s lineup (Brian Dozier through Eddie Rosario) have a .350+ wOBA and .380+ xwOBA against that pitch since 2016 according to PlateIQ. Rosario (131 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since last year) is stunningly below $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Lucas Giolito, Byron Buxton, Jason Castro, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario Ryan Zimmerman (< $3.5K) is a value play (122 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2017) vs reverse split Chad Bettis
Credit the Nationals with stacking the top of the lineup with RHBs and especially the speedy Trea Turner (111 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since last season) in the leadoff spot, where he hasn’t always been against RHP this year, against a pitcher with a decently sized reverse split. Chad Bettis only has 11 starts since last season, but RHBs have a .360 wOBA against him over that span and it’s actually been worse on the road. While his first two starts this season look fine from a run prevention standpoint (2.56 ERA), his estimators are double that with a 13 BB% and 43.3 GB% exactly six points below his career rate. His 84 mph aEV last year is best on tonight’s board, giving him a .299 xwOBA which is 47 points below his actual mark last year (in part, due to Coors no doubt). While Turner’s speed should be something players could want tonight, he and Bryce Harper (182 wRC+, .437 xwOBA, .347 ISO vs RHP since 2017) are extremely expensive with Anthony Rendon (132 wRC+, .200 ISO) not far behind. Ryan Zimmerman hits same-handed pitching well (122 wRC+, .378 xwOBA, .246 ISO, 39.6 Hard%) and costs $3.4K or less on either site, hitting cleanup for a lineup essentially tied for the top implied run line (5.19).
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Chad Bettis, Anthony Rendon Sonny Gray has a 26.1 K%, 13.7 SwStr%, 64.3 GB% through two starts; Red Sox 16.1 K% vs RHP
Sonny Gray has continued his high strikeout ways from last season (22.6%, 11.9 SwStr%) with a 26.1 K% and board topping 13.7 SwStr% through two starts this year, while his small sample of batted ball results has been tremendous as well (64.3 GB%, -3.5 Hard-Soft%). His 36.8% 95+ mph EV from last season is highest on tonight’s board, so that would be a very welcome turn around. The main issue, of course, is a Boston offense with a 136 wRC+ at home and 120 wRC+ (16.1 K%) vs RHP so far this year. Another concern would be an early weather report that this game could be in danger (ORANGE/YELLOW in Kevin’s morning forecast). Normally, this combination might be enough to remove Gray entirely from consideration, but perhaps not when dealing with a four game DraftKings slate. Neither wOBA or xwOBA (.310 – .315) give him much of a platoon split since last season. Gray will throw his fastballs (four-seam and sinker) over 60% of the time to batters from either side since joining the Yankees and then flip flop his slider and curveball usage depending on the platoon advantage. J.D. Martinez just crushes everything (143 wRC+, .412 xwOBA, .343 ISO, 49.2 Hard% vs RHP since last season – .584 xwOBA vs four-seamers, .470 xwOBA vs sinkers since 2016). In fact, each of the top four batters in the lineup plus Jackie Bradley Jr. have a .370+ xwOBA against sinkers and Andrew Benintendi is the only one of the five who drops below that against four-seamers since 2016. No Boston batter in tonight’s lineup can combine a wRC+ above 100 with an ISO above .200 against RHP since last season though. Mookie Betts (108 wRC+), Benintendi (113 wRC+), Hanley Ramirez (105 wRC+) and Rafael Devers (94 wRC+) all sit between a .177 and .201 ISO though. The Red Sox have a 4.57 implied run line that sits in the middle of tonight’s board. If forced to have exposure to one player in this game, it should probably be J.D. Martinez with the pitcher and rest of the offense probably depending on weather and ownership projections available a bit later.
Other tagged players: Sonny Gray, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, Rafael Dolis, Jackie Bradley Jose Berrios is the most expensive pitcher on the board, struggles with LHBs
Jose Berrios is the most expensive player on the board, either site, tonight. After shutting out Baltimore, Seattle beat him up pretty good in his last start, but plated five of six base-runners who reached by hit or walk. Berrios still struck out seven of 20 batters, though the Mariners did make strong contact (50 LD%, 46.2 Hard%) and he did garner just a 6.5 SwStr%. He’s facing a White Sox offense that was poor against RHP last season, but have a 123 wRC+ against them so far this season, though they have a 25.5 K% over the last week overall. Berrios was a solid contact manager last season (85.2 mph aEV, .300 xwOBA). It’s going to be tough to fade him entirely where you need two pitchers on DraftKings tonight, but considering the high cost, there could be some merit to that line of thought. He does seem to be developing a platoon split issue. LHBs have a .339 wOBA (.354 xwOBA, 36.9 GB%) against him since last season. According to PlateIQ, Yoan Moncada (120 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP career) has a .350+ xwOBA against all three pitches Berrios throws frequently (20%+) to LHBs, though he does struggle with the change-up (thrown 14% to LHBs according to Brooks Baseball). Nick Delmonico (129 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP career) is the other heavy left-handed bat here, though his overall 229 wRC+ over the last week comes with just an 8.3 Hard%. A 3.81 implied run line is lowest on the board for the four game DraftKings slate. Berrios is a strong play on a weak board, but Moncada may be too ($3.3K DK). His .312 xwOBA vs RHP career (Statcast) is also well below his actual .366 wOBA.
Other tagged players: Jose Berrios, Nicky Delmonico Wear Your Hard Hats in the Crowd
Ian Kennedy has looked good over his first two starts this year, but I’m not buying a long-term resurgence. He allows a ton of a hard contact and a lot of home runs, and the good vibes could very much come crashing down tonight against the Angels, who quietly lead the league in runs per game so far in April. This offense looks completely different with a few new acquisitions, and they haven’t even gotten Ian Kinsler into the mix yet. The Angels are my top stack of the night in GPP formats.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun