DFS Alerts
Cy Young Winner? What Former Cy Young Winner?
Remember when Rick Porcello won the Cy Young award? That was a hoot. He gets by with throwing a lot of strikes and not walking anyone, but his stuff is entirely hittable at times. The Yankees bring a plethora of power bats to the table, and this could get ugly for Porcello in a hurry. I like all the Yankees in the top six in the order tonight, with the power upside being extremely appealing. Don’t fall for the “name value” of Porcello – he’s not nearly as good as a lot of people think he is.
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner
Solid Stack with Upside Potential
With only four or five games on the slate tonight (depending on where you are playing), this isn’t necessarily a night where I think you need to stack. That’s a rare comment from me, too, given that I run stacks about as much as anyone in DFS. However, one-off bats have a lot of potential this evening. The Nationals are on my list of potential stacks, as they draw a nice matchup against a relatively weak RHP in Chad Bettis. Bryce Harper is arguably the top overall bat on the slate, and you can get cheap upside with guys like Goodwin and Adams as well.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Brian Goodwin A Cheap Salary Relief Option on the Mound
This pick is not for the faint of heart, but I could absolutely see using Tropeano as a pitching option tonight. There isn’t a ton to love on the mound, and it’s a slate that includes a lot of high dollar bats. If you are looking to spend up for those bats, taking a cheap pitcher certainly helps. Tropeano is a young arm with a decent skill set, and he faces a relatively weak offense in a good park for pitching. If he can muster up about 15-20 fantasy points tonight, you could still win a GPP with him. I’ll try to get up to Berrios on FanDuel, but Tropeano is certainly in play as a punt or especially on multi-pitcher sites
The Clear-Cut Top Arm
No matter how you put the numbers together, Berrios is the clear top arm on a short slate Thursday. He is dominant against RHBs and gets to face a White Sox team whose biggest bats hit from the right side. There’s not much to fear for lefties in this lineup, and Berrios brings some strikeout upside to the table. Righties hit for a .269 wOBA and had a strikeout rate north of 24% against the Minnesota pitcher last year. He’s a top selection in all DFS formats.
Value in the Outfield
There are plenty of elite hitters that we want to pay up for tonight, but in order to afford the likes of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, we have to save cap space somewhere. One of my favorite values is Jon Jay, who should be batting leadoff against Nick Tropeano, who hasn’t made a major league start since 2016. This could be a multi-hit, multi-run type of game for Jay, who is dirt cheap across the industry.
Huge Ceiling at Low Ownership
Ian Kinsler is expected to be back in the Angels’ lineup tonight, which will move Zack Cozart down to fifth in the order (hopefully). This will lead to lower ownership, especially since the masses will gravitate to Kinsler at the same position. I’ll take Cozart at lower ownership, as he has good power against right-handed pitching. The Angels get to face Ian Kennedy, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher and we have big winds blowing out to left field in Kansas City.
Good Night to Spend up in the Outfield
Since the beginning of last season, Bryce Harper owns a .533 wOBA and a .408 ISO against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Chad Bettis has allowed a 34% hard contact rate to lefties. The Nationals are playing at home and have one of the highest implied run totals on the board.
This Chalk Tastes Better than Most
Berrios is the top pitching option on the board tonight and it’s not particularly close. I’m always willing to pivot off of a chalky player in tournaments when there are viable alternatives, but I’m not sure there are any in this slate. Berrios will be the chalk, but he’s the good kind of chalk that you eat and look to differentiate your lineups elsewhere. He has elite stuff and is only going to get better as he gets more experience under his belt. He draws an exploitable matchup against the White Sox, who are going to struggle against right-handed pitching all season long. Their projected lineup has five batters with a 25%+ strikeout rate against righties.
Everything Sets Up Well, Which is Usually Bad News
Tonight’s matchup against the Rockies actually sets up pretty well for Gio. They aren’t nearly as effective on the road and have five batters in their lineup with a strikeout rate of at least 23% against left-handed pitching (and that doesn’t even include the pitcher). Gonzalez is a large favorite and he’s pitching at home in a good ballpark. He has also been very sharp in his first two starts of the season.
Cheap Home Run Upside
I was never a big fan of Logan Morrison, but he really changed his approach at the plate last season and the results were very noticeable. He has a 25.1% strikeout rate against righties since the start of 2017, and he’s only hitting .240 in 409 at bats. In that same span he has 32 home runs with a .281 ISO, 39.2% hard contact rate, and a .866 OPS. Lucas Giolito is a talented young pitcher but hasn’t been able to put it all together at the Major League level yet. He has a 1.71 HR/9 with a 17% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters since being called up last season. Low strikeout pitcher against a power lefty, and I’ll take my chances at this price tag on a small slate like tonight.
Cheap Cleanup Hitter
Lucas Giolito is a talented young pitcher but hasn’t been able to put it all together at the Major League level yet. He has a 1.71 HR/9 with a 17% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters since being called up last season. So, I really like the value of the lefties for the Twins tonight. Since 2017, Eddie Rosario has a .370 wOBA with a 131 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. He’s also hitting .288 in that span in 400 at bats. Looking for value on a small slate is tough, but we get that necessary value with these Minnesota lefties.
Great Values In This Lineup
I could put several different Twins bats as Core Plays tonight, but I have to start with these clearly under-priced left-handed outfielders. Both Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are priced as if they are below average hitters facing a top pitcher. Lucas Giolito has yet to show any ability to get major league hitters out, and has shown no strikeout ability to lefties. Both Kepler and Rosario strike out less than 18% against RHP, both guys hit the ball hard, Kepler in particular in the early going this season, and there’s even some moderate speed potential here as well in addition to home run power.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario
Keep On Playing The Best
There are several high end bats to consider, but I’ll again side with Trout tonight as the Core spend. Ian Kennedy is not a bad pitcher, but he allows a lot of hard contact and a lot of fly balls. Trout has no issues at all with right-handed pitching, no issues with fly ball pitchers, and no weakness in his game. He continues to hit the ball extremely hard with below average strikeouts. He’ll hit home runs, steal bases, take walks, score runs, collect RBI, hit for average, and so on and so forth.
Good Hitter At Top Of High End Offense
The Yankees are a team to target tonight against the hittable Rick Porcello. While we can play righties against him, throughout his career, it’s been left-handed bats to look for first against Porcello. Last season he allowed 41% hard hits and a .360 wOBA to lefties. Gardner make contact, still has power and speed and will be hitting in front of a parade of high power bats ready to hit him in. His salary is too low for the Yankees leadoff batter.
No Need To Get Tricky Tonight
This is a terrible slate for pitching, and when the choices are obvious, just go with the obvious. Gonzalez has been a steady pitcher, and though he’s far from dominant, his strikeout rate of 22.7% in 2017 is enough to put him at the top of the list tonight. So far this season, he has ramped up the strikeouts, but he has three straight seasons with a strikeout rate between 22.3%-22.7%, so that’s what we should assume we’re going to get. It’s really the long-term soft contact ability and the matchup that puts him over the top. He doesn’t get hit hard, and outside of Nolan Arenado and a high K Trevor Story, the Rockies don’t have much to worry about with right-handed power. Both his floor and ceiling look higher than anyone outside of Berrios.