DFS Alerts
Clear Cut Top Pitcher
It’s a very open and shut case at pitcher tonight. Jose Berrios is a shut down pitcher to right-handed batters. Last season, Berrios had a 24.6% K rate with 4.3% walks and just 24% hard hits to right-handed batters. In the very early going this year, we haven’t seen anything different, with a 25.9% K rate, no walks and just 15% hard hits allowed. The White Sox are a right-handed heavy lineup, and their few lefties have obvious weaknesses.
Cheap Pitcher With A Nice Floor
I was really disappointed to see DraftKings take the late game off the slate, but if you’re playing on FanDuel or FantasyDraft, you can still the guys in the late game. In 58.2 innings last season, Stratton posted a 4.42 xFIP with a 1.48 WHIP. With that said, he limited hard contact to 28.4% and had a 19.9% strikeout rate. Walks were the big downfall for him, but he only faces three hitters in this lineup with an above average walk rate. There is a lot of strikeout upside in this lineup, which bumps up a guy like Stratton. The projected starters have a .323 wOBA with a 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017.
Strikeout Upside In A Tough Matchup
When looking at this slate, we have very limited pitching options, so I’m more willing to take a pitcher in a tough matchup with strikeout upside, rather than a pitcher with limited upside. This Angels lineup is better than it was last season, but it also has more strikeout upside. Upton, Marte, Maldonado, Valbuena, and Schimpf all have strikeout rates over 20% since the start of 2017. Kennedy has a .328 wOBA with a 37.9% hard contact to right-handed hitters, but a 22.2% strikeout rate. I worry about the home runs and the power in this lineup. I don’t think Kennedy has a clean start or anything here, but I like the upside for 6+ strikeouts, which could make up for a few earned runs.
Matt Moore owns a 6.07 xFIP and 53.9% HH% versus RHB through two starts
It’s more than an understatement to say that Matt Moore is off to a rough start, as the left-hander has yet to make it past the fourth inning in either of his two starts and has allowed a total of nine earned runs in just 7.1 innings pitched. Moore is having the same issues as he did last season, surrendering a 51.9% hard-hit percentage and 51.9% fly ball rate thus far, and while those numbers may be a bit fluky due to sample size, Moore did finish the 2017 campaign with a career-high 34.7% hard-hit percentage, possibly indicating a continued trend moving forward. Even with the presumed positive regression in those departments, Moore is an extremely attackable pitcher at this stage of his career, evidenced by a mediocre 19.4% strikeout rate to right-handed batters that was accompanied by a 45.4% fly ball rate, 35.1% hard-hit percentage, and 5.06 xFIP last season. Now that Moore is out of the friendly confines of AT&T Park in San Fransisco, he may continue to see his advanced statistics decline at a rapid rate and a matchup with this righty-heavy Los Angeles Angels lineup doesn’t appear to be a spot for him to begin getting back on track. In fact, Mike Trout (14.2% K, .443 OBP, .387 wOBA), Justin Upton (20.3% K, .427 OBP, .384 ISO), Zack Cozart (13.9% K, .426 OBP, .296 ISO), Albert Pujols (15.9% K) and Andrelton Simmons (11.8% K) all have the ability to cause him a plethora of trouble at the top of the batting order, making the Angels an ideal stack in tournaments on Wednesday’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Zack Cozart, Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons, Matt Moore
Couple of games with rain possibilites in Wednesday's MLB weather forecast
While the concerns appear minor, there certainly are a couple of situations worth monitoring on Wednesday’s MLB main slate, according to Kevin Roth’s updated forecast. The primary game to be on the lookout for appears to be the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, as it has been classified as YELLOW due to an increased chance of rain as the game progresses. So, be sure to check out the full updated forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below for all your weather-based daily fantasy needs, and if you’re a Premium subscriber, you can also catch Kevin Roth on Crunch Time at 6:30 pm EST, breaking down any last-minute weather developments to help you gain an edge on the competition.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Five Orioles hitters have a Whiff% higher than 21.7% versus changeups since 2016, a pitch Marco Estrada has thrown 30.9% of the time
Estrada may not possess the alluring upside as some of the other starting pitchers on the mound for Wednesday’s main slate, but he has certainly been one of the most reliable, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his first two starts of the 2018 campaign and racking up seven strikeouts in just six innings against the Texas Rangers his last time out. Estrada can be prone to the home run ball on occasion since he’s an extreme flyball pitcher, as evidenced by a 50.3% fly ball rate in 2017, but he’s done a fairly good job of limiting damage overall with a well below-average 27.2% hard-hit percentage, making it easy to understand why he’s been able to maintain a minuscule .262 BABIP throughout his career. Other than that, Estrada is a fairly average pitcher in the strikeout and walk departments, owning a 21.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate, however, he may present a bit more upside on Wednesday night against this Baltimore Orioles lineup that sports plenty of strikeout-prone hitters throughout their lineup. While that extra strikeout potential comes with some added risk at a hitters ballpark like Camden Yards, the tournament appeal of Estrada becomes that much more intriguing when delving into his pitching repertoire, as he has thrown a changeup nearly 31% of the time and recorded a 20.0% whiff percentage on those pitches dating back to the 2016 season. That statistic becomes relevant because Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Davis, and Tim Beckham all own a whiff percentage of at least 21.7% on changeups during that same time frame, increasing their projected strikeout totals in this matchup. Normally, on most slates, the best course of action would be to avoid this game altogether given the volatility, but once taking into account the abbreviated slate size and lack of elite arms in the top pricing tier, it makes perfect sense to utilize some of these mid-range pitchers like Estrada in hopes they can provide equal or better value than their more expensive peers in large-field tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Despite a 19.6% K%, Luis Castillo has induced a 16.2% SwStr% through two starts
It’s no secret that Luis Castillo hasn’t had the greatest start to the 2018 campaign from a pure results perspective, as the second-year right-hander has already surrendered 10 earned runs in his first 10 innings pitched over the course of two starts. However, a lot of that damage stems from an elevated .323 BABIP and 39.4% hard hit percentages, both numbers that are atypical from 89.1 inning sample size Castillo recorded in the Majors last season. The 8.7% walk rate is right in line with Castillo’s control numbers from 2017, but his current 45.5% ground ball rate will need to rebound a bit toward the 58.8% rate he posted a year ago in order to maintain his elite pitching profile and overall effectiveness. His strikeout rate is down to 19.6% through two outings as well, but Castillo has still induced a massive 16.2% swinging strike percentage, indicating some possible positive regression in the strikeout department should he continue to maintain that type of stuff on a game-to-game basis. Another positive sign that Castillo can get his year back on track is that he’s continued his dominance against right-handed batters thus far, evidenced by a 58.8% groundball rate and 23.5% hard-hit percentage, which essentially means that he’s been hit around by a few lefties in the early going that has drastically skewed all of his vital advanced statistics. With all of the in-depth analysis available in the daily fantasy industry, it’s difficult to imagine Castillo flying under the radar at his price tag on DraftKings and FanDuel, but this still remains a great spot to continue allocating heavy exposure to a talented young pitcher in both cash games and tournaments on Wednesday’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs I'm A Believer In These Skills
SP2 on DK/FDRFT is not an easy call tonight. But, when factoring in skill set vs salary, even in this difficult matchup, I can’t get past Tanaka. He has elite control with high strikeout upside. His only issue is home runs, but with so few walks, even if he ends up allowing a couple home runs, he can be a top scoring pitcher tonight. He’s a borderline cash play, but I love him for tournaments.
Too Cheap In The Middle Of The Lineup
This is not a case of overreacting to a two-home run night, it’s a case of a guy who is just underpriced on a slate without a lot of obvious value. While Cabrera has some power, we’re not really buying him for the home runs, but it’s nice to know that’s in there. We’re buying for his strong lineup spot, elite contact skills and hard hit ability against left-handed pitching. He gets the added bonus of being a switch hitter who doesn’t lose effectiveness once we get into the Miami bullpen.
Underpriced Low Owned Option
I’m not going to target hitters from the Marlins a lot this season, but when I do, it will likely be Dietrich and Bour. I think they’re both underpriced for the matchup tonight. Wheeler was really good before he was injured in 2014. He struggled a lot last season, and while I believe in the talent, he needs to prove it at this point. He allowed a .364 wOBA with a 38.3% hard contact in 38 innings against lefties last season and he allowed nine home runs (2.13 HR/9). Dietrich should hit leadoff tonight, and he had a .357 xwOBA against right-handed pitching last season. He has a .403 xwOBA with a 4.76% whiff rate against fastballs in Wheelers velocity since the start of 2016. I don’t think he’s a home run guy tonight (I hope he is), but I like his chances for multiple hits in this spot.
Finally On The Board
When the Marlins had the fire sale this offseason, I was worried about Justin Bour’s production. While I’m still worried about it, I think he’s too cheap to overlook tonight. Wheeler was really good before he was injured in 2014. He struggled a lot last season, and while I believe in the talent, he needs to prove it at this point. He allowed a .364 wOBA with a 38.3% hard contact in 38 innings against lefties last season and he allowed nine home runs (2.13 HR/9). Bour had a .464 xwOBA with a .253 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. He has some really nice upside at this price, and I’m considering him in all formats.
Going Right Back to the Well
I’ve targeted Andrew Cashner and Dylan Bundy against the Blue Jays the last two nights and it has really paid off handsomely. Toronto is a right-handed heavy lineup that strikes out a high rate, so I will be picking on them often with right-handed pitchers. Kevin Gausman doesn’t throw a slider (Toronto can’t hit the slider), but he does bring plenty of upside at a cheap price point. I will be pairing Gausman with Luis Castillo on DraftKings.
Right Back To The Well
After writing him up and playing him across the industry last night, I’m going right back to Flores and the Mets tonight. In 32 innings since 2017, Garcia has a .323 wOBA with a 5.62 xFIP against right-handed hitters. His xFIP and BABIP suggest he has some regression coming to his ERA. In 2016, he pitched in AA for 39.2 innings, and had a low 16.1% strikeout rate with a 9.5% swinging strike rate. This will be his first start, and I don’t expect it to go well. Flores has a .255 ISO with a 38.3% hard contact rate against lefties since 2017, and should bat third again tonight.
Top Stack of the Night
This Angels offense is definitely legitimate. They have been raking over the last few days against these Rangers, and there’s no reason to expect that to slow down tonight. Matt Moore is nowhere near the pitcher he once was, and he simply can’t get right-handed batters out right now. He couldn’t find the strike zone in his last start, and trouble is brewing against all the RHBs in the middle of this Angels order. The 2-3-4 combination of Trout, Upton, and Pujols is a great stack this evening.
Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Justin Upton
Check Out This Whiff Rate
Monday I talked about the Blue Jays against sliders, and today I get the pleasure of talking about the Orioles and sliders. When we dig into the Orioles against changeups, we notice massive whiff rates. Since 2016 against sliders: Mancini 24%, Machado 16.5%, Schoop 21.7%, Davis 22.2%, Beckham 24%, Jones 17.8%. In 2017, Estrada threw his changeup 34% to lefties and 30% to righties. He had a 22.2% swinging strike rate with it against lefties and a 17.7% against righties. He struggled with his fastball against righties, and that’s the one thing I worry about in this start tonight. With limited options tonight, I think he’s a really solid option in this matchup.