DFS Alerts
The Stars At Night Are Big And Bright
I’m just going to jam in as many Angels as possible, and after Trout, it’s his outfield partner in Justin Upton with the next biggest upside on this slate. Left-handed pitchers were no match for Upton in 2017. His 44% hard hit rate helped him to a .472 wOBA, .384 ISO and 201 wRC+ against LHP. Trout and Upton are an ideal pairing in cash and GPP tonight.
Back To The Well
After last night’s explosion, I see no reason not go to straight back to the Angels right-handed bats again tonight. Matt Moore allows way too much hard contact against righties to think that he can survive this game. Trout has a high floor with his elite plate discipline, and his power upside is as big as anyone. He hit his 4th homer of the season last night and carries a 48% hard hit rate for the year. If you’re spending up for a hitter, this is the guy.
Don't Jump Off The Wagon Yet
The season has not started well for Castillo, but I don’t see any red flags here. He has a high 16.2% swinging strike rate which shows his stuff is still there, and he’s still piling up ground balls and soft contact against right-handed bats. He simply ran into a tough opening assignment, and things didn’t go his way. Because of it, he is underpriced for his skill set. Buy in while you can at this salary.
Good Control With An Excellent Changeup
This game has the highest total on the slate, which will lead to little ownership for the pitchers. Barria is a top prospect, and I doubt a lot of people know about him. He’s talented but won’t blow his fastball by anyone. He has great control, a good curveball, and a above average changeup. When digging into the Texas lineup, they struggle against good changeups, and this makes me like Barria at low ownership. Beltre is the only one to have a wOBA over .335 against changeups since 2016. Profar grades really well against the fastball, but he’s the only one to stand out for me. It’s a 21-year old making his Major League debut and it could go terrible, but I think there is upside at this price tag.
Best Pitching Option on the Board
Even if we throw out the salaries, I still prefer Luis Castillo as my number one pitching option tonight. He has massive strikeout upside and has shown an ability to keep the ball on the ground. Even though the wind is blowing out to right field in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, this game features a total of only 7.5 runs. This shows how much respect Vegas has for Castillo.
Big Power at Shortstop
The Cubs have one of the most talented lineups in baseball, especially when they are facing a left-handed pitcher. Addison Russell boasts a .361 xwOBA and a .189 ISO against southpaws since the beginning of last season. Tonight he squares off against Steven Brault, who has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.
A Salary-Friendly Pitching Choice
The Reds are a bad team that is off to a bad start, and Castillo has been included in that mix. His first two starts have not been all that great, but he does draw a little more favorable matchup tonight against the Phillies. This Philadelphia offense has been playing over its head so far this season, and we have to expect some regression at some point. That could start tonight against a quality arm. Castillo had a healthy 27.3% strikeout rate last year, so there is plenty of upside in that right arm. On a night that doesn’t offer a ton for pitching, he makes a lot of sense, especially in multi-pitcher formats.
Breaking out of the Funk
The Cubs have been in a bit of a funk to start the season, and they are also dealing with some injuries, as they have already had to place Anthony Rizzo on the disabled list. However, tonight profiles as a potential breakout spot. The temperatures are warming up a bit in the Midwest, and the wind will be blowing out at Wrigley tonight. They also get to face a relatively weak LHP in Steven Brault, so the RHBs are appealing here. You can get an expensive piece like Bryant and also combine him with a value piece like Almora, who generally hits in a favorable lineup spot against lefties. Don’t sleep on the Cubs this evening.
Other tagged players: Albert Almora, Willson Contreras Potential Shootout in Texas
We have a massive 11.5 run total in Texas tonight and the game is basically set as a pick ‘em. I will be loading up on both offenses. As far as the Rangers go, they get to face Jaime Barria, who is making his major league debut. Shin-Soo Choo is dirt cheap across the industry and has great numbers against right-handed pitching throughout his career.
Load up on this Offense
The Angels were one of the top stacks in last night’s slate and we can go right back to the well in a matchup against Matt Moore, who is a fly-ball pitcher that struggles against both left and right-handed hitters. All of the attention will be on Mike Trout and Justin Upton, but Zack Cozart needs to be included as well. Since the beginning of last season, he owns a .364 xwOBA against southpaws.
A Top GPP Pitching Choice
There is always going to be some risk when it comes to selecting pitchers against the Yankees, but there is some upside to be had as well. Chris Sale handled the lineup fairly well last night, and David Price could certainly do the same. His price tag is not as high as I would have expected, and the best news is that Price seems healthy for the first time in a long time. He has yet to give up a run in two starts, and there are some strikeouts waiting in this Yankees lineup. On a relatively short night slate without a ton of great pitching, Price is my top arm in tournaments.
A Potential Boom/Bust Team Stack
The Rangers have not been firing offensively so far this year, but they will bust out of it at some point. A home matchup in their hitter-friendly park against a pitcher making his major league debut feels like a perfect spot. Jaime Barria is making his debut for the Angels, and while he is a solid prospect, it’s silly to expect big success right out of the gate. The Rangers have double-digit run upside if the rookie struggles in his debut, and the price tags are very affordable, too, given the offensive slumber that the team has been in. If you are looking for an affordable stack with upside in a GPP, the Rangers provide that.
Other tagged players: Jurickson Profar, Nomar Mazara Charlie Blackmon scratched Tuesday; Mike Tauchman replaces
Blackmon has been scratched from the Colorado Rockies original confirmed lineup and will not play in Tuesday’s matchup with the San Diego Padres due to right quad tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Mike Tauchman, who will play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, moving Chris Iannetta all the way up to the second spot, while D.J. LeMahieu, Gerardo Parra, and Pat Valaika all slide up one batting position. It goes without saying that there are some noteworthy changes to this Rockies order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against Joey Lucchesi at Coors Field this evening.
As reported by: Patrick Saunders via Twitter
Players could be looking for cheaper exposure to Coors in order to pay up for expensive arms
Premium subscribers can now view ownership projections on the Projected Ownership page tonight. Coors bats are once again expected to rule, but it’s not just the Rockies expected to be highly owned tonight. See where else players might be looking to save money in order to pay up for expensive pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom
Unusually quiet April evening in Kevin's Tuesday night forecast
Only a single non-Green game in Kevin’s Tuesday night forecast, unusually quiet for an eventful April so far. Premium subscribers can join Kevin for Crunch Time at 6:30 ET, as he’ll go in depth on any remaining risk for tonight’s slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time