DFS Alerts
Sean Manaea (11.4 SwStr%) faces a Texas offense with a 24.8 K% vs LHP last year
Sean Manaea struck out seven of 26 Angels through 7.2 innings (1 R) in his first start. While he only struck out batters at a league average rate last year, an 11.4 SwStr% that suggests the potential for more. Although he struggled with RHBs (.347 wOBA, 36.9 Hard%), he has immense upside against a balanced Texas lineup that doesn’t have much use for platoons. The Rangers had an 82 wRC+ on the road and a 24.8 K% against LHP last season. Manaea, at just above $8K on either site, sits near the middle of the board on DraftKings, but is actually the second highest priced pitcher on FanDuel. While his issues with RHBs make him a risk, he may be able to match the upside of any other pitcher on the board in this spot. Adrian Beltre (191 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since last year) and Robinson Chirinos (179 wRC+, .284 ISO) are both very affordable bats worth looking at on the other side.
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Robinson Chirinos
Carlos Martinez walked or hit five of the 14 LHBs he faced on Opening Day
Carlos Martinez’s tendency to struggle finding the strike zone against left-handed batters was amplified on Opening Day. He walked four of the 14 lefties he faced, hitting another one. LHBs have presented a problem both last year (.337 wOBA) and in his career (.333 wOBA). While the ground ball rate remains above 50% against them, he walks 10% of lefties with a hard hit rate above 32%, again, both for his career and last season. Martinez is a high risk, high rewards option with the largest discrepancy on the board between his DraftKings ($10.2K) and FanDuel ($7.9K) price tags. No other pitcher on the slate is within $1K of his price difference. This is one players will really want to check the projected ownership rates on. If it looks like he may be under-owned, the upside can certainly win a GPP. If he looks over-sold, Cueto and Gray offer alternatives in better matchups and parks. The Brewers are sending just three RHBs against him. Again, if Milwaukee bats look under-bought, Eric Thames (137 wRC+, .288 ISO, 43.9 Hard% vs RHP since last season), Christian Yelich (125 wRC+, .171 ISO) and Travis Shaw (128 wRC+, .248 ISO) could pay off. Brewers bats may be better suited as part of a stack than one-offs. All three sit in the top half of the order and the way to pile up points against a wild pitcher is to keep the line moving, batting with runners on base and have those walks score some runs. The Brewers have a 4.4 implied run line that’s on the upper half of a ten team board.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, Carlos Martinez Hunter Pence scratched Wednesday; Gorkys Hernandez replaces
Pence has been scratched from the San Francisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not play in Wednesday’s matchup with the Seattle Mariners due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Gorkys Hernandez, who will play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, moving Gregor Blanco to left field and up one spot in the lineup to seventh. Other than that, the remainder of the Giants lineup stays intact as they face off against Felix Hernandez this evening.
As reported by: Alex Pavlovic via Twitter
Ten of 17 batted balls were on the ground with a 23.5 GB% in Johnny Cueto's first start
Johnny Cueto was ineffective in 25 starts with blister issues last season. He dominated the Dodgers for seven one-hit innings (four strikeouts, no walks) in his first start of 2018. Ten of 17 batted balls were on the ground with just 23.5% hard contact. Although ownership projections are not yet available (Premium subscribers check the Projected Ownership page later), a reasonable assumption might be for Cueto to be the most popular pitcher on the five game slate. He’s facing a Seattle lineup not completely without thunder, but lacking Nelson Cruz in an extremely pitcher friendly park. A middle of the order consisting of Robinson Cano (139 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since last season), Mitch Haniger (145 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Kyle Seager (104 wRC+, .196 ISO) may be a bit troubling, though nobody else really has a strong track record against right-handed pitchers. Only the Padres (3.34) currently carry an implied run line lower than the Mariners (3.54).
Other tagged players: Robinson Cano, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager Felix Hernandez looks to build on a solid first start in San Francisco tonight
Felix Hernandez’s Opening Day start (5.1 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 2 BB – 4 K – 7.7 Hard%) was a great source of optimism for a pitcher who sorely needed it after a down and injury plagued couple of seasons. Both pitch selection and velocity were similar to last season, so it’s not immediately obvious what was different in his success against Cleveland. He gets a park and opponent upgrade with a trip to San Francisco. Sudden slugger Joe Panik (113 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since the start of 2017) and Brandon Belt (132 wRC+, .250 ISO), both who have dealt with injury issues of their own last season, could pose problems at the top of the lineup against a pitcher who has major issues with LHBs via both wOBA (.363) and xwOBA (.362) last season. He was more Felix-like against RHBs (23.8 K%, .317 wOBA). While it’s going to take quite a bit more for Felix to earn the trust of DFS players back, this is not a terrible spot on a small slate and there’s not much of a reason to attack him beyond the first two batters in the order in a difficult park. Believe it or not, among remaining confirmed batters, Pablo Sandoval has the highest ISO against RHP since last season (.170).
Other tagged players: Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval Toronto has the top implied run line (5.24) against a pitcher (Fulmer) who struggled to throw strikes last year
The Toronto Blue Jays have a 5.24 implied run line that’s nearly half a run better than any other team on the five game slate. Just a year removed from being rated a back-end top 100 prospect by Fangraphs, Fulmer had a disastrous 2017 AAA campaign and short cup of coffee in the majors, exceeding a 5.9 K-BB% at neither stop. However, holding batters from either side to a hard contact rate below 30% has also allowed him to generate a league average .320 wOBA with no platoon split over 35 career major league innings. It’s been his failure to find the strike zone and the occasional HR (six) with a 34 GB% that has done him in, though he’s consistently run ground ball rates closer to league average in the minors. Players are going to want some Toronto exposure, but if Fulmer can find the plate, there may be some merit to fading the top projected offense tonight in a few lineups. The top/middle of the order with Josh Donaldson (143 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since last season), Justin Smoak (128 wRC+, .274 ISO) and the much more affordable Curtis Granderson (113 wRC+, .250 ISO) are the more obvious key bats here. Considering the lack of platoon split so far, Randall Grichuk (96 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Russell Martin (110 wRC+, .182 ISO) are inexpensive methods of exposure as well.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin, Randal Grichuk, Carson Fulmer We Have to Pay Up Somewhere
This is a strange slate as we almost have too much salary cap space. There aren’t any elite arms on the mound and there are a ton of great value plays. I’ve made lineups that I feel great about with $1,500 left on the table. One of my favorite spends is Christian Yelich, who has really played well so far with his new team. Carlos Martinez sounds like a tough matchup, but he has allowed a 35% hard contact rate to lefties since the start of last season.
Potentially Under-owned Power at First Base
Doug Fister is not a pitcher that I pick on with right-handed hitters. He holds them in check, has a decent strikeout rate, and keeps the ball on the ground. He has problems with lefties though, allowing a .336 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate since the start of last season. Matt Olson is in a great spot here, as he posted a massive .395 ISO with a 44% hard contact rate against righties last season.
Love this Infielder in Cash Games
Jhoulys Chacin has been tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career, but has always struggled against lefties. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .344 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Matt Carpenter has mashed right-handed pitching throughout his career and he sees a significant ballpark bump playing in Milwaukee.
Cheap SP2 for Cash Games and Tournaments
Jon Gray is the top pitching option on the board. Everyone agrees that this is the case, but an argument can be made for a number of pitchers as the best SP2. I’m a fan of Aaron Sanchez, who was an elite pitcher at his peak. He has dealt with a number of injuries over the years, but looks healthy heading into this season. Considering the fact that he faced the Yankees in his first start, four runs allowed isn’t terrible. He should be able to improve on that tonight against the White Sox, who do not hit right-handed pitching well.
No Need to Get Cute
Pitching is scarce tonight and that’s putting it kindly. Jon Gray is head and shoulders above the other options, so this isn’t a spot where we should try to get cute and fade him. He has the highest strikeout rate, he has the best matchup, and he is pitching in a good ballpark. The Padres’ lineup doesn’t have much power to begin with and they tend to strikeout at a high rate.
Aaron Sanchez has a career 60.1 GB% and 3.1 Hard-Soft% against RHBs
Aaron Sanchez struck out just two while walking four of the 27 Yankees he faced in his first start of 2108 after an injury plagued 2017. He did have a solid spring, allowing a runner per inning over 17.2 innings with 16 strikeouts and generally keeps the ball on the ground. While the White Sox have a 3.77 run line that sits in the middle of the board, the majority of the top pitching choices reside on the day slate and Sanchez would seem a viable choice if it looks like his ownership rate might run low. At less than $8K on either site ($6.2K FD), his second matchup is a significant upgrade from his first, as the White Sox were one of the worst offenses in baseball against RHP last year. Yoan Moncada (122 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Nick Delmonico (119 wRC+, .207 ISO) could pose some issues from the left side, but even if he doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts, Sanchez has generated a 60.1 GB% and 3.1 Hard-Soft% in his career against RHBs and he’ll face six of them on Wednesday night. Aside from some command issues against a dangerous lineup, Sanchez’s velocity was there against the Yankees, averaging 95 mph on his sinker.
Other tagged players: Nicky Delmonico, Yoan Moncada Start of Wednesday's PHI-NYM game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets on Wednesday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, but as of now, the teams do plan on starting the game at some point. An update on the situation is expected from the Mets within the next hour, essentially before 1:45 pm EST. The late start is good news for the prospects of Noah Syndergaard not being pulled from his start due to a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, sustained winds are blowing out at 25mph, with gusts over 40mph, a sizable boost to hitters’ projected fantasy values from both teams.
As reported by: Tim Britton via Twitter Patrick Corbin struck out 33% in his first start after a strong finish to 2017
Patrick Corbin was one of few pitchers to have success with the humidor in Arizona last week, striking out 33% of 24 Rockies faced on Opening Day, though they did go deep twice against hiim. Corbin exited last season on a strong note. Over his last 20 starts, he had a 23.7 K% (51.3 GB%) and an ERA and FIP both below three and a half pitching in one of the worst pitching environments in baseball. He also held his hard hit rate below 30% over that stretch. For the season, his .314 xwOBA was 27 points below his actual one. The Dodger lineup has some dangerous bats against LHP and while Corbin allowed a .349 wOBA to LHBs last season, his .332 xwOBA against them is much closer to league average and certainly acceptable considering the environment. Batters from either side kept the ball on the ground on at least half of batted ball events. While the Dodgers are the only lineup with an implied run line between four and four and a half on the afternoon slate, strategic, targeted exposure to either side of this matchup could be worthwhile. Corbin is a viable second arm on DraftKings for $7.3K if paying up for one of the $10K+ stars. Alternatively, Kike Hernandez (141 wRC+, .304 ISO, 42.4 Hard% vs LHP since last season) continues to go severely under-priced against southpaws ($3.4K DK/$2.7K FD) and is projected to bat in the upper half of the lineup. Austin Barnes (138 wRC+, .252 ISO, 39.6 Hard%) is even cheaper, though with a lower spot batting order projection. Chris Taylor (124 wRC+, .194 ISO) is a bit more expensive, but still affordable and should be in the leadoff spot. Don’t forget to check back for the confirmed lineup when it’s released.
Other tagged players: Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Austin Barnes Alex Wood's velocity remained down in an otherwise sharp first start against the Giants
Left-handed batters had .265 wOBA (.261 xwOBA) with a 59 GB% and 16.8 Hard% against Alex Wood last year, making it very surprising that the Diamondbacks would choose to lead one off against him. Especially considering Jarrod Dyson’s 59 wRC+, .050 ISO and 14.1 Hard% in 344 career PAs against them. Though, perhaps with his speed, weak ground balls might be a positive. Arizona will lineup with seven right-handed batters among their remaining eight position players. They didn’t have much more success against Wood last season (.267 wOBA, .281 xwOBA), whose velocity and performance steadily declined throughout the second half of the season last year. The bad news is that it began 2018 right where it left off last year (90.3 mph average in his first start), though the good news is he still managed to one hit the Giants through eight innings without a walk and five strikeouts, in which 14 of 22 batted balls were on the ground. Comparing him to a very similar Dallas Keuchel, both have a similar cost on FanDuel with Keuchel in the better spot, but Wood is nearly $1K cheaper on DraftKings. Paul Goldschmidt (147 wRC+, .277 ISO, 49.6 Hard%) and A.J. Pollock (117 wRC+, .260 ISO) have been the two most productive bats against left-handed pitching here. The surprise would be Deven Marrero’s 139 wRC+ and .283 ISO, though that has come in just 66 PAs and a 28.8 FB% against LHP since last year. He does cost the minimum on FanDuel though and less than $3K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Deven Marrero