DFS Alerts
Upside At A Weak Position
I’m always looking for upside at shortstop, and we get that upside with Trevor Story. Richard has a .377 wOBA against right-handed hitters since the start of last season, and he has a very low 13.9% strikeout rate. In that span, he had a 37.8% hard contact rate with a 1.42 HR/9. Since the start of last season, Story had a .338 ISO with a 1.005 OPS against left-handed pitching. He also has a 50.6 hard hit rate, but a 34.6% strikeout rate. With a low strikeout pitcher like Richard, Story becomes a high upside option.
All Depends On The Lineup
The projected starting lineup for Oakland has four left-handed hitters, and if this is the case, I think Fister is an okay SP2 tonight. Matt Olson is the one left-handed hitter that I’m worried about the most in this lineup. Fister had a .258 wOBA with a 53.4% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters last season. He induced as much soft contact as hard contact against right-handed, and did it with his sinker. Looking at PlateIQ, you will notice that Oakland righties struggled with sinkers last season, and that should lead to a lot of ground balls for Fister. I don’t think a 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 K is out of the question for Fister, the question is, will it be enough.
Pivot Off The Chalk
If you’re playing on FanDuel, Panik is one of my favorite plays at 2B, and on DraftKings, I think he’s a great pivot off Solarte. In the off-season Panik changed his swing, and so far, it’s been a great change for him. I don’t expect him to keep hitting home runs, but hey why not ride the hot streak. He has at least one hit in all five games, and three of those games he has multiple hits. It’s a small slate, and Hernandez is still not fully stretched out. Since the start of last season, Hernandez had a .339 wOBA against left-handed hitters, and 2017 was the lowest swinging strike rate he’s had since 2011.
Limiting The Damage As A Cheap SP
The cheap pitchers on the late slate are ugly, and I will likely have Manaea and Gray on most if not all of my teams tonight. If you’re looking for a cheap SP2 on DraftKings, I like Sanchez’s chances to limit the damage against the White Sox tonight. The last full season for him, he had a low strikeout rate, but he had a very good ground ball rate. He has limited upside in this matchup because of the low strikeouts, but it’s the type of slate you just look for a decent pivot off the top options. Five of the starters for the White Sox have strikeout rates over 18% and wOBA’s under .350 against right-handed pitching since the start of last season.
Austin Hedges scratched Tuesday, A.J. Ellis replaces and bats eighth
Hedges has been scratched from the San Diego Padres original confirmed lineup and will not play in Tuesday’s matchup with the Colorado Rockies due to upper back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by A.J. Ellis, who will play catcher and slot directly into Hedges’ eighth spot in the order, meaning the remainder of the Padres lineup stays intact as they face off against Kyle Freeland this evening.
As reported by: San Diego Padres
Houston players are expected to be very popular again tonight
It’s easy enough to project Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander to be the most popular pitchers tonight, but one other starter could potentially see double digit ownership rates on either site tonight and while Houston bats are similarly projected to be extremely popular on the aggregate, the batter with the highest projected ownership tonight is not a Houston Astro. Another American League team may have a very popular top of the lineup low priced play. Premium subscribers can find potential popularity rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw Firepower potential on both sides in an unlikely spot in Oakland tonight
Cole Hamels, an under-performing Texas offense on the road, and a pitcher’s park in Oakland wouldn’t seem the most obvious place for a shootout tonight, but the game total is nine with both sides projected above four runs. Both of these pitchers struggled in their first start. Hamels was down three full miles per hour from last year (89.2 mph). He walked four Astros and allowed two HRs. Kendall Graveman struck out just one of 22 Angels, also generating just a 38.1% ground ball rate and allowing three home runs. While Jed Lowrie tops the lineup with just a 112 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, Matt Olson (.240 ISO), Matt Chapman (.214 ISO) and Khris Davis (.232 ISO) all showed significant power against southpaws, while Stephen Piscotty and Marcus Semien both exceed a .190 ISO for their career against LHP. For the Rangers, only Elvis Andrus and Ryan Rua have an ISO below .187 against RHP since last season. If the opposing pitcher is not going to miss bats, there’s some value in the Texas lineup too. Joey Gallo has a 123 wRC+ and .345 ISO with the platoon advantage since the start of 2017. It should be noted that despite Hamels’ struggles, he did have a 12.8 SwStr% in his first start and Oakland had a 24.2 K% against LHP last year. Hamels could pile up strikeouts and HRs tonight.
Other tagged players: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Cole Hamels, Kendall Graveman, Stephen Piscotty, Khris Davis Start of Tuesday's CHC-CIN game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, but as of now, the teams do plan on starting the game at some point. An update on the situation is expected from the Reds in roughly 30 minutes, also known as 6:30 pm EST.
As reported by: C. Trent Rosecrans via Twitter
Batters from either side of the plate had success against Josh Tomlin last season.
Josh Tomlin failed to have a reverse split by wOBA for the first time in five years last year. While his .346 wOBA against LHBs was higher than his .335 wOBA against RHBs, his xwOBA was actually 19 points higher against RHBs, while being right on the nose vs LHBs. Suffice to say that batters from either side succeeded against him in 2017. While Mike Trout (186 wRC+, .347 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is the obvious bat, both Justin Upton (116 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Zack Cozart (138 wRC+, .247 ISO) have both had recent success against same-handed pitching as well. Shohei Ohtani is in the lineup tonight as well, though he bats left-handed. He costs less than $3K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Zack Cozart, Josh Tomlin, Shohei Ohtani Kevin's latest forecast believes Mets and Phillies could play wet
The evening forecast is available on the Weather page. For a full breakdown, check out our CrunchTime product with Kevin Roth.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time Zack Godley (26.6 K%, 55.3 GB%) and Garrett Richards (25 K%, .274 xwOBA) alternatives to higher priced arms
Zack Godley could be a significant beneficiary of an optimally functioning humidor in Arizona. He combined a 26.6 K% with a 55.3 GB% and 27.7 Z-O-Swing% (the latter two both best on the board tonight). Statcast supports the wOBA below .290 that he posted last year. The lone issue was that 37.6% of his contact was above a 95 mph exit velocity. He allowed nine of his 15 HRs at home with an 18.0 Hard-Soft% (9.5% on the road). The humidor has not been of any great benefit to pitchers in three of the first four games in this park so far, but behind Kershaw and Verlander, he may be the pitcher with the most upside on the slate. Chase Anderson had a 23.4 K% last season, but experienced a potentially concerning two mile per hour drop in velocity in his first start and may be a bit over-priced due to an 80.6 LOB% and 8.6 HR/FB last season. Garrett Richards had a 25 K% in just six starts last season. He could be under-priced tonight, below $8K on either site. After throwing just 12 innings this spring, he worked through 89 pitches in his first start, which should put him at nearly 100 tonight. Cleveland is by no means an easy assignment, but he gets them at home and has a history of managing contact extremely well. Statcast shows a .274 xwOBA last season in limited work last year. That’s 52 points above his actual wOBA, but still exceptional. His 4.1% Barrels/BBE would be the lowest mark on the night slate.
Other tagged players: Garrett Richards Brewers have third highest implied run line (5.08), but Flaherty ($6K) may be under-valued
Jack Flaherty threw just 21.1 innings (five starts) for the Cardinals last year, but may have had one of the best sliders in the league over that run according to a Fangraphs article late last year. That same site’s prospect writers project him as a mid-rotation arm after running a 25% strikeout rate at AA and AAA last season (148.2 innings) and exhibiting more control than he did at the major league level (10.6 BB%). With surprisingly few confidence inspiring arms beyond the big two tonight, Flaherty could be under-valued at $6K on either site and may be an arm to take a shot on, especially if paying up for your other pitching choice on DraftKings. It’s not a great spot against a tough lineup in a tough park with the Brewers actually owning the third highest implied run line on the slate (5.08). Perhaps expecting a strong performance is a bit strong, but there’s a good enough chance he exceeds his low price tag and he’s likely to have low ownership rates considering the run projection. Players will likely want to hedge against in additional lineups if employing him for that last reason too. Travis Shaw (130 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Eric Thames (139 wRC+, .29O ISO, 44.1 Hard%) have been the most proficient against RHP since last season. Christian Yelich (124 wRC+, .166 ISO), Lorenzo Cain (118 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Ryan Braun (104 wRC+, .204 ISO) have all been competent or better. Flaherty allowed LHBs a wOBA and xwOBA over .150 points higher than he did RHBs in his small major league sample last year.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun Carlos Correa (146 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since last season) in lineup after leaving last night's game with an injury
Carlos Correa (146 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since last season) is back in the lineup after leaving with an injury last night. In fact, the Astros employ the exact same lineup they used to assault Chris Tillman last night and it should be much the same result against Mike Wright, who has some similarly horrible contact rates last season via Statcast (88.8 mph aEV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE, 39.4% 95+ mph EV) in 25 innings, all out of the bullpen. While LHBs have a career .402 wOBA against him, RHBs have hit him well too (.335 wOBA) with batters from either side hitting 13 HRs with a ground ball rate around 40%. Every bat in this lineup is a viable choice, with at least a 107 wRC+ and .170 ISO against RHP since the start of last season. The only exception is Derek Fisher (86 wRC+), who has a 46.8 Hard% against RHP since last year. The top six, aside from Alex Bregman (108 wRC+, .172 ISO) all boast a 130+ wRC+ and .180+ ISO against RHP. The chalk paid off last night and Houston is again likely to meet their 5.14 implied run line.
Other tagged players: Chris Tillman, Derek Fisher, Alex Bregman Curtis Granderson (.246 ISO vs RHP since 2017), leads off, costs the min. on FD for top projected offense tonight
Miguel Gonzalez, somehow, provided league average production against RHBs (.314 wOBA, .328 xwOBA, 30.9 Hard%) against RHBs, though he generated ground balls just 38.9% of the time. LHBs torched him for a .360 wOBA (.354 xwOBA) and 34.3 Hard% (33.5 GB%) though, en-root to a 4.62 ERA with estimators even higher. The Blue Jays currently top the board with a 5.23 implied run line and provide strong value with four hitters LHBs in the top six tonight, three of whom cost $3K or less on either site and Justin Smoak’s (128 wRC+, .270 ISO, 40.7 Hard% vs RHP since last season) $3.7K price tag on DraftKings almost seems like a mistake. Leadoff man Curtis Granderson (112 wRC+, .246 ISO) costs the absolute minimum on FanDuel. His 49.6% fly ball rate against RHP is in the top 10% on tonight’s board. Yangervis Solarte (107 wRC+, .195 ISO) is a low cost middle infield option. Josh Donaldson (141 wRC+, .259 ISO) has eased injury concerns with an extra-base hit in two of his last three games.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, Miguel Gonzalez With mediocre pitching and weather concerns, Mets and Phillies should be a DFS pass
The Mets and Phillies were postponed on Monday with similar concerns on Tuesday. Kevin’s forecast is wet and cold, calling for a potential PPD once again. If they do play, it’s probably not a game worth attacking. While starting pitching is questionable on both sides, Gabe Kapler, loves changing pitchers so much, he doesn’t even need a reliever warming up in the bullpen to do so (Saturday night). Matt Harvey looked good enough in his last two spring starts (10.1 IP – 3 BB – 13 K – 80% strikes) to give us pause, though he’s still a long way from gaining any trust. There’s a strong chance we’ll see a lot of bullpen matchups in terrible conditions even if this game does play. Despite the sub-par pitching, neither offense is even projected above four runs tonight. This game should be an easy pass for DFS players.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page