DFS Alerts
Carlos Carrasco is the top priced pitcher, facing the team with the lowest implied run line
Carlos Carrasco is most expensive pitcher on the board, facing the offense with the lowest implied run line (4.2). He has second best strikeout (28.3%) and SwStr (13.4%) rates on the board and it could be argued that facing the Yankees in the Bronx is not really the best spot on the board, though it’s less arguable that he has the longest leash on the board with a two game lead in a five game series and at least six innings in 23 of his 32 starts. Perhaps that gives him the highest floor on the board today. The Yankees still have a few bats worth looking at though. Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO vs RHP) may still be the top overall bat on the board and may even get an additional boost with Kevn’s forecast calling for a light wind (10 mph) blowing out to left with enough moisture in the air to be a slight aid towards hitters. Brett Gardner (124 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP) merits serious consideration at a low price and Gary Sanchez (130 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) is the most dangerous Catcher on the board. Aaron Hicks (119 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP) and Didi Gregorius (120 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP) are both low priced as well. Kevin’s forecast also has this game at YELLOW currently, for the small chance of a delay, which is actually more concerning than a postponement which would cancel a one game slate. It’s more about how the conditions might affect play on the field. Dana DeMuth should be the home plate umpire for Game Three according to Yahoo Sports. In 289 recorded contests by Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters had a 19.4 K% and 8.3 BB% with DeMuth behind the plate, a 1.1 K-Boost and 0.95 BB-Boost signifying a pitcher’s umpire.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks
Masahiro Tanaka finished the regular season with a 15 strikeout performance
Theoretically, Masahiro Tanaka should be on a short leash with a two game deficit in a five game series, but if he pitches the way he did in his season finale (7 IP – 3 H – 0 BB – 15 K) it’s not going to matter. Joe Girardi shouldn’t be gun shy about going to a normally dominant bullpen early after they blew the game in Cleveland, but Tanaka certainly has enough upside to be playable on a two game slate, especially at just an $8.1K price tag on DraftKings. The Tribe has an implied run line of 4.3, which is third highest (or second worst) on the board. Edwin Encarnacion (134 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP) has surprisingly not been ruled out tonight after turning his ankle on Saturday. Michael Brantley (125 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP) would be a capable replacement, though still a step down considering that Masahiro Tanaka did not have much of a split this year (LHBs .316 wOBA, 16 HRs, 21.9 K-BB%, 55 GB%, 32.1 Hard% – RHBs .333 wOBA, 19 HRs, 19.2 K-BB%, 45.1 GB%, 31 Hard%) with the largest discrepancy being in his ground ball rate. Kevn’s forecast calls for a light wind (10 mph) blowing out to left with enough moisture in the air to be a slight aid towards hitters as well. Tanaka has the potential for double digit strikeouts (15.1 SwStr% best on the board), but his 35 HRs surrendered in a power boosting park certainly means players can use Cleveland hitters in the same lineup as the Yankee pitcher. Second Base might be the toughest call on FanDuel between Jose Ramirez (149 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Kipnis (93 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) with the latter costing less than $3K. Both are multi-position eligible on DraftKings to make things easier. Jay Bruce (131 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP) looks to continue his hot start to the post-season and is certainly capable of taking Tanaka deep. Lonnie Chisenhall (120 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) is another value plaly if in the lineup. Kevin’s forecast also has this game at YELLOW currently, for the small chance of a delay, which is actually more concerning than a postponement which would cancel a one game slate. It’s more about how the conditions might affect play on the field. Dana DeMuth should be the home plate umpire for Game Three according to Yahoo Sports. In 289 recorded contests by Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters had a 19.4 K% and 8.3 BB% with DeMuth behind the plate, a 1.1 K-Boost and 0.95 BB-Boost signifying a pitcher’s umpire.
As reported by: Yahoo Sports Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall Brad Peacock has the highest strikeout rate (29.5%) among today's four starting pitchers
It might surprise some to realize that Brad Peacock has the highest strikeout rate (29.5%) among the four starting pitchers today. While he generally doesn’t go very deep in games (more than six innings just twice, more than 6.1 innings just once), he should be expected to have a decent sized margin for error as far as post-season games are concerned with the Astros up two games to none. That’s not to say that Houston is willing to sacrifice a game, but the hook won’t be as immediate as it should be on the other side of this contest. The Red Sox have the second highest implied run line (4.49) and there is a bit of discrepancy in Peacock’s price tag between sites. His $10.2K DraftKings cost makes him the second most expensive arm, but he’s the third most expensive on FanDuel ($8.6K) by over $1K. Players probably shouldn’t entertain most Boston RHBs today (.229 wOBA, 20.5 K-BB%, 50.3 GB%, 22.5 Hard% against Peacock this year). None in today’s lineup even had a wRC+ above 101 or ISO above .190 against RHP this year. LHBs are a different story (.331 wOBA, 35.2 GB%, 31.5 Hard%) with Mitch Moreland (101 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP) a particularly strong value play for $3.3K or less on either site and Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP) a solid OF option today. Kevin’s forecast believes the weather will be a factor in this one, not from a rain standpoint, but with 15 to 30 mile per hour winds blowing out to center, making a normally power suppressing park (though an extremely positive run environment) potentially play more power friendly. Ted Barrett is listed as the Home Plate Umpire by Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders. In 323 games, batters have a 19.9 K% and 7.8 BB% with him behind the dish. Boost Stats show him as a slightly hitter friendly umpire (0.98 K-Boost, 1.03 BB-Boost).
Other tagged players: Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi Doug Fister has greatly suppressed RHBs (.258 wOBA, 25.4 Hard%, 53.4 GB%)
Doug Fister may seem an odd choice to start Game Three for the Red Sox and Houston does have the highest implied run line (5.01) by more than half a run when all four teams exceed four runs today. He’s certainly not a pitcher players want to utilize (even on a two game slate), but there is some real life justification for this choice. The Astros are a predominantly right-handed lineup, at least with their better parts (four LHBs or switch hitters in today’s lineup). LHBs maul Doug Fister both this year (.365 wOBA, 39.6 Hard%) and to some extent, for his career (.323 wOBA, 30.7 Hard%). But he’s been able to smother RHBs to the tune of a .258 wOBA, 14.5 K-BB%, 53.4 GB%, 0.8 Hard-Soft% this year and .293 wOBA, 55.7 GB% and 1.1 Hard-Soft% for his career, far superior to Rick Porcello’s numbers againsts RHBs. That said, RH Houston core bats like Carlos Correa (142 wRC+, .239 ISO), Jose Altuve (158 wRC+, .200 ISO) and George Springer (131 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) have been so efficient against same-handed pitching that their use in a four game slate is certainly not precluded, though they may be a bit over-valued where guys like Marwin Gonzalez (154 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP) and Josh Reddick (131 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) may be your top bats (both exactly $2.7K on DraftKings). Brian McCann (104 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP) and Carlos Beltran (91 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP) are also cheap enough that they may be great values too. The other thing to consider here is that in an elimination game, all hands are on deck. Doug Fister has no margin for error and may only get through the lineup once or twice. Josh Reddick could be facing a LHP in the majority of his plate appearances. The Boston bullpen for this game should be the entire staff (would they use Chris Sale in short relief?). Also, Kevin’s forecast believes the weather will be a factor in this one, not from a rain standpoint, but with 15 to 30 mile per hour winds blowing out to center, making a normally power suppressing park (though an extremely positive run environment) potentially play more power friendly. Ted Barrett is listed as the Home Plate Umpire by Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders. In 323 games, batters have a 19.9 K% and 7.8 BB% with him behind the dish. Boost Stats show him as a slightly hitter friendly umpire (0.98 K-Boost, 1.03 BB-Boost).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Umpire Factors Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa Davante Adams (concussion) is expected to play Sunday
Aaron Rodgers will be pleased to have Adams at his disposal for this pivotal week 5 matchup in Dallas. The game script sets up well for Adams here as this game sports a 52.5 total with Dallas currently sitting as three point favorites. Last season he was held to just two receptions for 34 yards in the game against the Cowboys, but should easily improve upon that against a Dallas secondary that has struggled through the first four weeks.
As reported by: Rob Demovsky
The Dodgers have the second highest implied run line today (4.44) against Taijuan Walker
The 4.44 implied run line for the Dodgers trails only the Astros today, while Taijuan Walker can probably be considered the weakest pitcher on the board, though in the least run friendly environment. While Walker had very little platoon split, batters from both side were league average against him with a wOBA just above .310 and hard hit rate around one-third of batted balls. All Dodger starters except for Logan Forsythe have a wRC+ above 100 against RHP this year, while Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .323 ISO) has been the top hitter on the team. Yasiel Puig (135 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP) is a strong OF play for less than $4K on either site. Corey Seager (120 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP) appears to be a great value for just $3.1K on FanDuel, though he has been dealing with an elbow issue over the last month. It’s hard to find an unreasonable play in this lineup at current prices aside from Forsythe. Additional factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. Kevin notes warmer than usual weather in Los Angeles tonight, which may be a slight boost for hitters. The Arizona bullpen was middling this year, which actually makes it one of the weaker post-season pens, though they are not devoid of weapons with Archie Bradley (20 K-BB%) taking over a set-up role, but certainly capable of going multiple innings in the playoffs. Walker getting the start also means they will have either Zack Godley or Patrick Corbin available as a multi-inning relief option as well. Paul Nauert is the home plate umpire according to Yahoo Sports. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 294 opportunities, players have a 19.9 K% and 7.9 BB%. Swish considers him a pitcher friendly umpire (1.11 K-Boost, 0.91 BB-Boost), as if Kershaw needs the additional help. Jeff Mathis is a strong pitch framer, which could give Walker an additional boost here.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Logan Forsythe, Yasiel Puig, Taijuan Walker Clayton Kershaw is only the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel today
The Diamondbacks have a slate low 2.56 implied run line. Clayton Kershaw is the obvious choice to pitch Game One for the Dodgers, though his 29.8 K% and 14.1 SwStr% are just second on the board behind Corey Kluber, as are his 2.31 ERA and 3.04 SIERA. At $10.2K, Kershaw is only the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, where he should be very popular ($11.4K DK = second). The Diamondbacks had just an 83 wRC+ (23.8 K%) on the road and 85 wRC+ (24 K%) vs LHP, though Plate IQ shows that tonight’s exact lineup had a .348 wOBA, .217 ISO and 21.5 K% vs LHP. The big reason for that is the late season acquisition of J.D. Martinez (235 wRC+, .516 ISO, 55.9 Hard%, 47.1 FB% vs LHP). It may take more than Kershaw (RHBs .245 wOBA, 16 HRs, 26.5 Hard%) to take him completely off the board, especially if he’s going to have low ownership in this matchup. That said, Kershaw did dominate RHBs this year, more so than LHBs actually (.308 wOBA, 30.3 Hard%). Perhaps that’s why Chris Iannetta is absent from the lineup with the Diamondbacks opting to go with the more defensively minded Jeff Mathis (which could add a small boost to Taijuan Walker through framing). Though somewhat cheaper than normal, it’s difficult to consider other Diamondback bats in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Additional factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. Kevin notes warmer than usual weather in Los Angeles tonight, which may be a slight boost for hitters. The Dodger bullpen was a force during the regular season with a 19.8 K-BB% that was second best in the majors and 7.5 fWAR that was third. Kenley Janson is one of the top closers in the game. Tony Cingriani and Brandon Morrow exceeded a 24.1 K-BB%, while Kenta Maeda had a 28.1 K-BB% in eight innings out of the pen and is certainly capable of throwing multiple innings should they need it. Removing Kershaw from this game may not give the Diamondbacks that much of an advantage, unless it’s done really early. Paul Nauert is the home plate umpire according to Yahoo Sports. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 294 opportunities, players have a 19.9 K% and 7.9 BB%. Swish considers him a pitcher friendly umpire (1.11 K-Boost, 0.91 BB-Boost), as if Kershaw needs the additional help. Yasmani Grandal is also considered one of the best framers in the business.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Jeff Mathis Kyle Hendricks had a 19.0 K-BB% and 0.7 Hard-Soft% over his last eight starts
The Washington Nationals have a middling 3.86 implied run line hosting the Cubs and Kyle Hendricks, who is an interesting choice for Game One, though the Cubs really lacked a dominant arm down the stretch. Hendricks was as good as anyone though, over his last eight starts (19.0 K-BB%, 51.8 GB%, 0.7 Hard-Soft%). Over that span, RHBs had just a .234 wOBA (three HRs), 20.6 K-BB%, 60 GB% and -3.8 Hard-Soft%, truly dominating stuff, essentially taking the majority of the Washington lineup out of daily fantasy consideration without a strong discount, though Ryan Zimmerman (130 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP) costs just $3.7K on DraftKings. LHBs were a bit more competent (.325 wOBA, three HRs, 17.3 K-BB%, 41.9 GB%, 6.4 Hard-Soft%). Daniel Murphy (143 wRC+, .231 ISO) is the cheaper of the two big LH bats in the Washington lineup. Bryce Harper (173 wRC+, .332 ISO) could be under-owned after missing the majority of the second half. He does cost $5K on DraftKings though. Plate IQ puts the confirmed lineup at a .356 wOBA, .213 ISO and 20.1 K% against RHP this year, which is quite potent. The Nationals had just a team 100 wRC+ against RHP this season, but the Plate IQ numbers show the potential when they are healthy. Other factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. Kevin notes that it’s slightly warmer than normal for this time of year in Washington, but there is nothing in the forecast that should provide a weather impact for the game. The Cubs’ bullpen was middle of the road. They had a 26.3 K%, but a league high 11.2 BB%. Wade Davis and Carl Edwards both exceeded a 30% strikeout rate, but both had a double digit walk rate as well. As far as post-season participants, it may be one of the weaker bullpens in contention, lacking a real multi-inning weapon that many of the other bullpens seem to have. Cory Blaser will be calling the balls and strikes according to Yahoo Sports. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, Blaser has been a fairly neutral umpire (0.99 K-Boost, 1.01 BB-Boost) in 203 opportunities with a 20.3 K% and 7.8 BB%.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman Stephen Strasburg has the third best strikeout rate (29.1%) and SIERA (3.37) on today's board
The Chicago Cubs have today’s third lowest run line on the board (3.14), facing Stephen Strasburg, who has wrapped up potentially his best major league season (29.1 K%, 13 SwStr%, 2.52 ERA, 3.37 SIERA, 2.93 DRA are all third best among today’s pitchers). Strasburg costs exactly $10.6K on either site, which makes him more expensive than Kershaw on FanDuel. Strasburg had very little split in terms of wOBA (both around .250) or ground ball rate (both around league average), though RHBs had a 30.8 Hard% against him, while LHBs had just a 23.8 Hard%. While exceptional, his 5.9 Hard-Soft% overall is only fifth best among today’s eight pitchers. The Cubs were merely league average (100 wRC+) against RHP this year. The confirmed lineup for the Cubs has a .339 wOBA, .203 ISO and 20.8 K% vs RHP via PlateIQ. Kris Bryant (145 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) may be the key to the Chicago lineup, considering RHBs did hit Strasburg slightly better this year. He costs around $4K on either site though. Willson Contreras (114 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP) costs less than $3K on FanDuel. Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+) and Kyle Schwarber (109 wRC+) also exceeded a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. No other starter has a wRC+ above 100 or ISO above .190 against RHP this year, while Jason Heyward and Javier Baez are in their more for their defense than offense. Other things players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. Kevin notes that it’s slightly warmer than normal for this time of year in Washington, but there is nothing in the forecast that should provide a weather impact for the game. The Washington bullpen had a 21.9 K% that was just 21st in the majors. They were a mess for the majority of the season before being stabilized by the additions of Ryan Madson (33.3 K-BB%) and Sean Doolittle (19.5 K-BB%). It is now more middle of the road, but still lacks a multi-inning, post-season weapon that many other teams seem to have now. Cory Blaser will be calling the balls and strikes according to Yahoo Sports. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, Blaser has been a fairly neutral umpire (0.99 K-Boost, 1.01 BB-Boost) in 203 opportunities with a 20.3 K% and 7.8 BB%.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Umpire Factors Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Javier Baez Jackson (171 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP) and Gomes (123 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP) could be value plays against Sabathia
The Cleveland Indians are the lowest of three teams implied for more than four runs today (4.31) at home against C.C. Sabathia. While Sabathia’s 19.3 K% and 3.69 ERA (4.45 SIERA, 4.52 DRA) are worst on the board and probably take him out of play in as daily fantasy playable, his numbers are not that bad. He’s been a solid real life pitcher for the Yankees this year, mostly due to his contact management improvements over the last couple of years (49.9 GB%, 3.1 Hard-Soft% this year). This leaves players with a question of whether to attack him and how with Cleveland bats. Jose Ramirez (147 wRC+, .254 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (128 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Francisco Lindor (134 wRC+, .224 ISO) are all extremely potent hitters against LHP, but all are quite expensive. RHBs (.310 wOBA, 48.1 GB%, 29.9 Hard%) were certainly much more competent against Sabathia than LHBs (.306 wOBA, 58.9 GB%, 14.3 Hard%), which may remove Jason Kipnis (64 wRC+ vs LHP) and Jay Bruce (88 wRC+, .211 ISO vs LHP) as particularly strong options. Austin Jackson (171 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP) and Yan Gomes (123 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP) are more sneaky value plays, both $3.5K or less on either site. Other factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. This game gets the only YELLOW grade in Kevin’s MLB forecast today. A delay is not likely, though getting Sabathia out of the game is unlikely to benefit Cleveland because the Yankees have the top bullpen in the majors (29.1 K% and 9.2 fWAR). The Yankees utilized Betances for an inning last night and Jaime Garcia took a multi-inning hit with Sonny Gray leaving early, saving the majority of the bullpen for tonight if necessary. Dan Iassonga would be the ball and strike caller for this game according to Yahoo Sports, if the rotation is correct (he was at First Base yesterday). In a 309 game sample according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, players had a 20.6 K% and 8.3 BB% in games called by Iassogna. His 1.14 K-Boost and 0.93 BB-Boost would make him one of the most pitcher friendly umpires in the game. This could be a significant boost for Sabathia, who has become more of a location oriented pitcher after losing several miles per hour off his fastball in recent seasons.
Other tagged players: Yan Gomes, CC Sabathia, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, Jay Bruce, Jason Kipnis Corey Kluber leads today's pitchers in K%, SwStr%, ERA, SIERA and DRA
The New York Yankees have the second lowest implied run line on the board (2.69), facing Corey Kluber, who tops today’s board in strikeout rate (34.1%), SwStr (15.6%), ERA (2.25), SIERA (2.68) and DRA (2.05). He’s the most expensive pitcher on either site with the biggest disadvantage being the fairly positive run environment he pitches in for Cleveland. No other positive run environments are in play today using Seamheads.org three year park factors. He completely dominated RHBs (.233 wOBA, 26.6 Hard%), while LHBs did not fare much better (.251 wOBA, 31.3 Hard%). The first six are the same for the Yankees tonight with Aaron Hicks (119 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP), swapping lineup spots with Todd Frazier (101 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Jacoby Ellsbury (113 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP) replacing Chase Headley. He’s facing a very competent crew against RHP according to PlateIQ: .348 wOBA, .211 ISO, 20.1 K% vs RHP. If the Yankees didn’t like breaking balls from Trevor Bauer last night, they’re really going to hate Kluber though. Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO vs RHP) was eaten up by curveballs and sliders last night, but can still change the game with one mistake, while $4.6K is actually quite reasonable for him on DraftKings. He’s likely to come with lower ownership due to matchup and affordability today. Brett Gardner (124 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP) costs just $2.8K on FanDuel. The Yankees are clearly in a difficult spot though. Other factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. This is where the Yankees could gain some small advantage. This game gets the only YELLOW grade in Kevin’s MLB forecast today. A delay is not likely, but it is possible and anything that could throw Kluber off his game or remove him from it benefits the Yankees. However, the Cleveland bullpen trailed just the Yankees with 8.6 fWAR this season, while their 20.0 K-BB% led all of baseball. The obvious weapon is Andrew Miller, though Danny Salazar gives them an additional dimension they did not have available last year. Miller pitched only one inning last night, but the Yankees made him throw a lot of pitchers, which could take him out of the game tonight or at inhibit him from a lengthy outing. Salazar is surely capable of throwing multiple innings though. Dan Iassonga would be the ball and strike caller for this game according to Yahoo Sports, if the rotation is correct (he was at First Base yesterday). In a 309 game sample according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, players had a 20.6 K% and 8.3 BB% in games called by Iassogna. His 1.14 K-Boost and 0.93 BB-Boost would make him one of the most pitcher friendly umpires in the game. If Kluber is going to get the same calls Bauer got last night, it’s going to be a long (or short) afternoon for the Yankees.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Todd Frazier, Jacoby Ellsbury The Astros have the highest implied run line on the board (4.9) by a large margin
The Houston Astros will run out the same exact lineup as Game One against another LHP today (Drew Pomeranz). Houston has the highest implied run line on the board at 4.9 runs, nearly a half run above the next highest team. Pomeranz is middle of the board when it comes to strikeouts (23.5%), but his 3.32 ERA 3.86 DRA and 4.31 SIERA are both among the bottom three pitchers today. He actually had a bit of a reverse platoon split this year (RHBs .300 wOBA, 44.7 GB%, 32.7 Hard% – LHBs .344 wOBA, 37.1 GB%, 31.7 Hard%), but while both Josh Reddick and Brian McCann were both slightly above a 100 wRC+ vs southpaws this year and both cost exactly $2.7K on FanDuel, neither appears to be more than a punt play today. Via PlateIQ, this lineup pummels LHP (.368 wOBA, .202 ISO, 14.3 K%). These numbers make Pomeranz almost impossible to consider. However, his success could depend on the home plate umpire. Much like Trevor Bauer last night, if he can get called strikes with his curveball, he becomes a more dangerous pitcher (more on that later). Carlos Correa, George Springer, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman all exceed a 160 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP this year. Bregman is the most affordable of the bunch, below $4K on either site. Although wRC+ marks more than 40 points lower, both Evan Gattis and Marwin Gonzalez exceed a .200 ISO vs LHP as well this year. Both cost less than $3K on FanDuel. Other factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. With the roof closed at Minute Maid, weather will not be a factor. A closed roof is generally a small upgrade for the pitcher in warmer weather parts of the country. The Boston bullpen has a strong back end with Addison Reed and Craig Kimbrel and also may be planning on using David Price as their Andrew Miller type weapon out of the pen this post-season. None were used yesterday and no reliever went more than an inning for Boston, though with Porcello expected to start Game Four, he probably shouldn’t be expected to throw a lot of pitchers, if any, today. Angel Hernandez is somehow the ball and strike caller for this game according to Yahoo Sports, if the rotation is correct (he was at First Base yesterday). In a 317 game sample according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, players had a 19.6 K% and 7.7 BB% in games called by Hernandez. His 1.09 K-Boost and 0.87 BB-Boost make him one of the more pitcher friendly umpires in the game. As mentioned above, if Hernandez expands the zone for Pomeranz’s curveball, it could change the dynamics of this game.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: George Springer, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Reddick, Brian McCann, Drew Pomeranz Dallas Kuechel's 66.8 GB% leads Friday's slate by more than 15 points
The Red Sox are right in the middle of the board with 3.6 implied runs today. While Dallas Keuchel is tied for the second lowest strikeout rate on the board (21.4%), he has the fourth highest SwStr rate (10.9%) and a 16.7 point lead with his 66.8 GB% on the next highest ground ball rate today. While today’s slate boasts some exceptional contact managers, Keuchel’s -0.7 Hard-Soft% also leads the slate by a wide margin (3.8 points). The Red Sox have a slate low 16.7 K% on the road and vs LHP this year, but also just a 10.1 HR/FB against southpaws. PlateIQ shows us that today’s confirmed lineup has a middling .333 wOBA, and .156 ISO against LHP, but just a 16.3 K%, very in-line with their team season rate. Keuchel is the fourth highest priced pitcher on the board at right around $9K on either site and players know what they’re paying for if using him today. Batters from either side had at least a 65 GB% against Keuchel this year. RHBs had a .293 wOBA and 26 Hard%, while LHBs were .100 points worse with just an 18.9 Hard%. Boston bats are not ideal this afternoon, but Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, and Deven Marrero all have a 140 wRC+ or slightly better against lefties this year, while Betts (.201), Marrero (.309) and Hanley Ramirez (.208) all exceed a .200 ISO. Betts would be the top bat in the lineup, Pedroia potentially the top value play (just $2.6K on FanDuel), while Marrero would play the part of the sneaky punt for less than $3K on either site. Other factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. With the roof closed at Minute Maid, weather will not be a factor. A closed roof is generally a small upgrade for the pitcher in warmer weather parts of the country. No Houston reliever went more than an inning yesterday and all should be available again today. Their 28.6 K% this season was behind only the Yankees. Although they had a 4.27 ERA, they has the third largest positive gape against their FIP (3.84) this year. Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrave are former starters, who excelled in multi-inning relief roles, while Ken Giles closed and the team picked up Tyler Clippard to add depth. Angel Hernandez is somehow the ball and strike caller for this game according to Yahoo Sports, if the rotation is correct (he was at First Base yesterday). In a 317 game sample according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, players had a 19.6 K% and 7.7 BB% in games called by Hernandez. His 1.09 K-Boost and 0.87 BB-Boost make him one of the more pitcher friendly umpires in the game.
As reported by: Yahoo Sports Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Deven Marrero Trevor Bauer has a 19.9 K-BB% over 13 starts since he began throwing a slider
Trevor Bauer started throwing a slider at the end of July and put up a 19.9 K-BB% with a 10.1 SwStr% over his last 13 starts. The dominance (as one might expect with increased slider usage) was mostly against RHBs (.273 wOBA, three HRs, 23.3 K-BB%, 47.5 GB%, 32.2 Hard%), while LHBs had a .372 wOBA with eight HRs, a 16.2 K-BB% and 29.3 Hard% against him over that span. The Yankees have a 3.94 implied run line that’s second best on the slate, but Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO vs RHP) is certainly the top overall bat and one of the most expensive ones as well. Brett Gardner (124 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP) and Gary Sanchez (130 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) are top of the line bats at their positions as well today. Didi Gregorius (120 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP) is especially valuable on FanDuel, where he costs nearly $2K less than on DraftKings. The Yankee lineup has yet to be confirmed, but it would be a shock if any of those four were not in it. Outside those four, no other projected starter costs more than $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel, though stacking rules will likely limit the number of salary savers players can utilize here if paying up for bats in this lineup as well. Other things players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. The Weather page suggests temperatures around 70 degrees at game time in Cleveland and Kevin mentioned on twitter a small chance of sprinkles, though most likely to play dry. The Cleveland bullpen trailed just the Yankees with 8.6 fWAR this season, while their 20.0 K-BB% led all of baseball. The obvious weapon is Andrew Miller, though Danny Salazar gives them an additional dimension they did not have available last year. While the might be less likely to empty the pen in Game One of a five game series, Trevor Bauer is probably their third best starter in this series and may have less margin for error than the rest of today’s starters. Yahoo Sports names Vic Carapazza as tonight’s home plate umpire. The RotoGrinders Umpire Factors page shows a sample size of 231 games with a 21.1 K% and 7.7 BB%, which might suggest a larger strike zone and a slight boost for pitchers. In fact, his stats signify a K Boost of 1.06 and with negative factors for hitters. Bauer may be the least popular pitcher on the slate, which may make him attractive in a contrarian sense. There is some merit to the idea, considering the numbers he put displayed after he started throwing that slider.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner Sonny Gray has allowed 10 HRs over his last seven starts
Sonny Gray gets the Game One start for the Yankees in Cleveland. The Tribe has a 4.56 implied run line that leads the slate by more than half a run. Although Gray allowed more than two ERs in just three of his 11 starts for the Yankees, he also allowed 10 HRs over his last seven starts with just an 11.5 K-BB% and 47.3 GB% for his new team. He showed very little split against RHBs or LHBs and, in fact, had an identical .303 wOBA against batters from either side in a Yankee uniform, though RHBs have seven of his 11 HRs allowed. The reason to roster Gray as the lowest priced pitcher on the board (either site) would be to stack Yankees, in particular Judge and Sanchez, though FanDuel rules insist that players can only roster a total of four players from one team, which includes the pitcher. Cleveland is a hitters’ park and PlateIQ has this lineup with a .335 wOBA, .210 ISO and 18.1 K% vs RHP. If rostering either Sale or Verlander, Lonnie Chisenhall (120 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) immediately becomes the most interesting player in this lineup, especially on FanDuel ($2.1K), where he may provide a direct path towards one of the higher priced bats like Judge. Jose Ramirez (149 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP), Edwin Encarnacion (134 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP) and Francisco Lindor (110 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) are all fine choices, but likely in-affordable unless rostering Bauer as well and that four-some would cover your Cleveland allotment on FanDuel. Jay Bruce (131 wRC+, 273 ISO vs RHP) costs just $2.9K on FanDuel.
Other things players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. The Weather page suggests temperatures around 70 degrees at game time in Cleveland and Kevin mentioned on twitter a small chance of sprinkles, though most likely to play dry. The Yankee bullpen is a beast, as we saw in the Wild Card game. The good news is that they are unlikely to empty it in the first game of the series, but supporters of Cleveland bats do not want to see this game close late. The Yankees led all bullpens with a 29.1 K% and 9.2 fWAR. Yahoo Sports names Vic Carapazza as tonight’s home plate umpire. The RotoGrinders Umpire Factors page shows a sample size of 231 games with a 21.1 K% and 7.7 BB%, which might suggest a larger strike zone and a slight boost for pitchers. In fact, his stats signify a K Boost of 1.06 and with negative factors for hitters.