DFS Alerts
Rick Porcello expected to be available out of the bullpen.
Rick Porcello is currently slated to start Game Four (should it be necessary), but will be available out of the bullpen today. David Price is projected to be the more impactful arm here, though with Sale starting, there may be more of a chance the Astros could see Porcello as a different look, should he be needed, especially considering the predominance of RHBs in the Houston lineup. Porcello allowed 17 HRs to RHBs with a .336 wOBA this year (16.2 K-BB%, 44.6 GB%, 35.7 Hard%), which is actually quite a bit better than he did against LHBs (.360 wOBA, 21 HRs, 13.8 K-BB%, 33.1 GB%, 41.2 Hard%). Starting pitchers have been know to receive a boost when coming out of the pen in shorter stints though and he certainly deepens the Boston relief corps today.
As reported by: David Barron
Justin Verlander had a 26.2 K-BB% in the second half (33.1 K-BB% vs LHBs)
The Boston Red Sox have a 3.71 implied run line against Justin Verlander that’s second lowest on the board. Verlander’s 25.8 K% (10.7 SwStr%) is third on the board, his 3.36 ERA (4.05 SIERA, 3.24 DRA) is second. He’s just $300 less than Chris Sale on FanDuel and $800 less on DraftKings. After just a 10.1 K-BB% in the first half of the season, he transcended to a 26.2 K-BB% in the second half of the season, post-All-Star break. While he still allowed 15 HRs over that span (nearly split evenly between RH and LHBs), LHBs had the higher wOBA (.261 to .214), due to a 35.7 Hard% (31.3 GB%) against him, but they also had an enormous 33.1 K-BB%. The Boston lineup is filled with marginal bats (.321 wOBA vs RHP per PlateIQ) with average power (.162 wOBA vs RHP), but a lot of contact (18 K% vs RHP). Eduardo Nunez (20 PA, 3 XBH, 7 BBE, 96.6 mph aEV) is the only batter in the lineup to have homered against Verlander, according to Baseball Savant, though Mitch Moreland (34 PA, 6 XBH, 6 BBE, 94.5 mph aEV) has some quality numbers as well. In fact, Moreland (101 wRC+, .214 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup to exceed a .200 ISO vs RHP this year and costs $3.5K or less on either site. Rafael Devers (87 wRC+, .198 ISO) didn’t miss by much, while Nunez (118 wRC+, .152 ISO) and Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+, .178 ISO) were the only other above average hitters against RHP this year. Mookie Betts (99 wRC+, .190 ISO) wasn’t bad either, but he’s the highest cost bat on either site ($4.4K DK, $3.7K FD). Other things players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. The roof is expected to be closed in Houston. The Houston bullpen has been a strength. Their 28.6 K% this season was behind only the Yankees. Although they had a 4.27 ERA, they has the third largest positive gape against their FIP (3.84) this year. Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrave are former starters, who excelled in multi-inning relief roles, while Ken Giles closed and the team picked up Tyler Clippard to add depth. Yahoo Sports names Dan Belino as today’s home plate umpire. The RotoGrinders Umpire Factors page shows a sample size of 240 games with a 20.6 K% and 8.1 BB%, basically a neutral umpire in most aspects with a slight BB Boost (1.05). RotoGrinders is not projecting ownership for post-season games, but Verlander could challenge Sale’s popularity considering his second half performance and superior matchup today.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez Chris Sale has allowed multiple HRs in three of his last five and five of his last 11 starts
Post-season baseball is a much different animal than the regular season, but in the first game of a five game series, Chris Sale is certainly the player pitchers should expect to have the longest leash tonight. He finished the season with a 36.2 K% (14.9 SwStr%), 2.90 ERA, 2.58 SIERA and 2.37 DRA, all easily best on today’s board by a large margin (the strikeout rate by 10 full points above Trevor Bauer). While Sale is the top pitcher on the board if players can afford him, there are certainly reasons to fade him as well considering how popular he’s likely to be. One of which is that it makes lineup construction quite a bit simpler. Another is that he finished the season allowing four HRs to the Blue Jays. That in itself doesn’t mean much, but he also allowed multiple HRs in three of his last five and five of his last 11 starts. Against the Astros he will be facing today, PlateIQ shows a stunning .364 wOBA and .196 ISO vs LHP this year with just a 14.2 K%. Josh Reddick (109 wRC+, .087 ISO vs LHP) and Brian McCann (102 wRC+, .186 ISO vs LHP) are the only two LHBs in the lineup, which may be too many, considering Sale’s .234 wOBA and 17.9 Hard% against them this year. According to Baseball Savant, Jose Altuve (22 PA, 2 XBH, 7 BBE, 83.9 mph aEV) and Evan Gattis (9 PA, 1 XBH, 7 BBE, 86.1 mph aEV) both have a single HR against Sale in their career. RHBs had a .265 wOBA and 32.1 Hard% against Sale with 21 of his 24 HRs allowed. Not ideal, but consider that Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve all had a 160 wRC+ or better with an ISO above .200 against LHP this year. Springer costs just $3.1K on FanDuel, Bregman just $3.7K on DraftKings. Evan Gattis and Marwin Gonzalez exceeded a .200 ISO vs LHP as well this year. Both cost exactly $3.3K on DraftKings today and less on FanDuel. None the less, the Astros have a slate low 3.29 implied run line, worst on the board by nearly half a run. Other things players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. The roof is expected to be closed in Houston. The Boston bullpen has a strong back end with Addison Reed and Craig Kimbrel and also may be planning on using David Price as their Andrew Miller type weapon out of the pen this post-season, which is probably less of a factor in Chris Sale starts. Yahoo Sports names Dan Belino as today’s home plate umpire. The RotoGrinders Umpire Factors page shows a sample size of 240 games with a 20.6 K% and 8.1 BB%, basically a neutral umpire in most aspects with a slight BB Boost (1.05).
As reported by: Yahoo Sports Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Brian McCann, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis Aaron Wilkerson will start for Milwaukee; Zach Davies scratched
Wilkerson posted a rock solid 3.18 ERA with 143 strikeouts in 142.1 innings at AAA Biloxi. He’ll face a watered down St. Louis Cardinals lineup today and therefore has some GPP appeal.
As reported by: Adam McCalvy Other tagged players: Zach Davies
Anthony Santander scratched; Chris Davis now in the lineup batting 6th
Davis will now enter the lineup and hit sixth in the Orioles season finale while Santander finds himself on the bench.
As reported by: @Orioles Other tagged players: Anthony Santander
Tyler Anderson scratched Sunday; Kyle Freeland will now start in his place
Anderson has officially been scratched from his start in today’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers due to a manager’s decision. In his place, Kyle Freeland will receive the starting nod for the Colorado Rockies this afternoon. Considering that Freeland is still a left-handed pitcher with a similar overall skillset to Anderson, albeit, a slightly less exciting one, the Dodgers hitters could be expected to see an uptick in production and could actually see a decent bump to their projected values on Sunday’s main slate from their original projections.
As reported by: Thomas Harding via Twitter Other tagged players: Kyle Freeland
Start of Saturday's LAD-COL game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies will start in a rain delay. The contest is currently expected to get underway at 8:30 pm EST, equating to roughly a 20-minute delay. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW/ORANGE in his updated weather forecast due to the possibility of a rain delay with scattered showers in the vicinity of the stadium. However, the threat of a postponement still does remain relatively low as usually is the case with a game at Coors Field. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page for more information. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: Patrick Saunders via Twitter Andrew Moore scratched Saturday; Andrew Albers will start in his place
Moore has officially been scratched from his start in tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Angels due to reported neck spasms. In his place, Andrew Albers will receive the starting nod for the Seattle Mariners this evening. Considering that Albers is a left-handed pitcher and a marginal downgrade from Manaea in terms of pitching ability, the Angels now suddenly become a more intriguing offense to target and the Los Angeles righties should see a noteworthy boost to their projected values on Saturday night’s slate.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter Other tagged players: Andrew Albers Andrew McCutchen scratched Saturday; Jordan Luplow replaces and will bat fourth
McCutchen has officially been scratched from the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup for tonight’s game against the Washington Nationals due to what is being reported as left foot discomfort. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jordan Luplow, who will take over the left field duties defensively and bat fourth. This lineup change will also bump Josh Bell up one spot to third from his original clean-up spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Pirates previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Adam Berry via Twitter Other tagged players: Jordan Luplow Zach Davies has been pushed to Sunday; Junior Guerra will now start Saturday
The Milwaukee Brewers have made a late change to their starting rotation for this afternoon’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals as they attempt to keep their season alive. Previously announced starting pitcher, Zach Davies, will have his start moved to Sunday and Junior Guerra will now take the mound Saturday as the lead pitcher in what has been deemed as “bullpen day” by the Brewers coaching staff. Not that Davies should have been strongly considered for daily fantasy lineups on the early slate, to begin with, but this Milwaukee pitching situation is now an easy one to avoid with Guerra unlikely to see a full workload and very likely to receive a quick hook should he struggle whatsoever.
As reported by: Sophia Minnaert via Twitter Other tagged players: Junior Guerra Two YELLOW/ORANGE games headline Saturday's early MLB slate forecast
All in all, it’s a great day for baseball across the Major League Baseball this fine late-September Saturday, but two of the six “early slate” games have rain delay potential and minimal postponement risk. These weather issues come to us in Boston and New York for the matchups between the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees with grades of YELLOW/ORANGE due to the aforementioned chances of a delay in each contest. Even with the likelihood of rain relatively high, Kevin Roth feels pretty confident in both games finishing eventually. Still, be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Dustin Pedroia scratched Saturday; Brock Holt replaces and will bat eighth
Pedroia has officially been scratched from the Boston Red Sox lineup for today’s game against the Houston Astros due to a manager’s decision and expected field conditions at Fenway Park with rain in the forecast. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brock Holt, who will take over the second base duties and bat eighth. This lineup change does shake up the Boston lineup quite a bit, as everyone except for Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. will slide up one spot in the batting order to compensate for Pedroia’s sudden unavailability. Be sure to check out the RotoGrinders lineups page for further clarification, if needed.
As reported by: Jen McCaffrey via Twitter Other tagged players: Brock Holt Jaime Garcia scratched Saturday; CC Sabathia will now start in his place
Garcia has officially been scratched from his start in today’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays due to a manager’s decision. In his place, CC Sabathia will receive the starting nod for the New York Yankees this afternoon. Considering that Sabathia is still a left-handed pitcher with a similar overall skillset to Garcia, albeit, a slightly more honed one, the Blue Jays hitters shouldn’t be expected to see an uptick in production and could actually be knocked with a slight downgrade to their projected values on Saturday’s early slate from their original projections.
As reported by: Pete Caldera via Twitter Other tagged players: CC Sabathia Delay potential in Cleveland and Colorado on Friday night
While Colorado gets the worst game grade from Kevin tonight (YELLOW/ORANGE), it’s less of a concern to players not using pitchers in that game. Kevin is calling weather impact low risk towards hitters here. Cleveland (vs the White Sox) is a straight YELLOW with the chance of a delay. Trevor Bauer is actually one of the more interesting pitchers on a weak board with winds blowing in from left-field in his favor. A lengthy delay would be a concern though, as the Indians would have no reason to risk injury. Read the full report on the Weather page and find Kevin on RG premium chat 6-7PM with further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Christian Vazquez scratched Friday; Sandy Leon will catch
Christian Vazquez has been scratched from the Boston lineup. Sandy Leon will now catch. Leon has just a 59 wRC+ vs RHP, while Charlie Morton actually has a reverse split this season.
As reported by: Pete Abraham Other tagged players: Christian Vazquez