DFS Alerts
Hunter Renfroe has homered in four of 13 PAs since returning from the DL
Hunter Renfroe (361 wRC+, 50 Hard%, four HRs) has come back from the disabled list like a big ball of fire because he’s smoking baseballs. He’s homered four times in 13 PAs and faces a LHP (Tyler Anderson) tonight, against whom he has a 196 wRC+ and .379 ISO this season. Perhaps the best news is that he costs less than $3K on either site. Dexter Fowler (329 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, three HRs) gets to tee off against Homer Bailey (LHBs .345 wOBA) in Cincinnati. Josh Donaldson (322 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, five HRs) should be a top priority of daily fantasy players tonight when the Blue Jays host Jason Vargas, who has allowed RHBs a .408 wOBA with 16 HRs and a 41.2 Hard% over his last 13 starts. He is tied for the league lead in HRs over the last week as well. Addison Russel (266 wRC+, 83.3 Hard%, one HR) has also returned from the DL red hot. He has just 10 PAs with six batted balls, but has made hard contact on five of them over the last week. Domingo Santana (246 wRC+, 72.7 Hard%, three HRs) will be in the opposing dugout tonight, facing Jake Arrieta with a lower than normal pitch limitation tonight. Russell and Santana are the only projected starters on the slate with a hard hit above 67% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Josh Donaldson, Addison Russell, Domingo Santana
The Astros have the highest implied run line on the slate (5.65) against rookie Carson Fulmer
Half of the teams on a nine game slate have an implied run line between 4.6 and 5.65 runs with the Houston Astros (5.65) leading the Minnesota Twins (5.27) by a substantial margin at the top of the board. The Astros didn’t particularly dominate James Shields last night and have a less enticing matchup against rookie Carson Fulmer, just by the reasoning that few pitchers can give up the long-ball like Shields. Fulmer made his first career start in August and was bombed, but the rest of his appearances in September haven’t been bad (16.2 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 6 BB – 17 K – 66 BF – 10.9 SwStr% – 19.1 Hard% – 19.5 GB%). The ground ball rate would be the most alarming there. Fulmer is a decently thought of prospect (#6 in the organization, 50 FV grade via Fangraphs), but struggled to a 5.4 K-BB% at AAA this year with 18 HRs in 126 innings. The fact is that there’s little information in and some of it is conflicting. If the Astros are going to be over-owned here, there is some merit to fading them, though they’re generally running out six guys with a 120+ wRC+ and .190+ ISO vs RHP with Alex Bregman (104 wRC+, .171 ISO) not too far behind that. The Cardinals are third on the board with a 5.17 implied run line against Homer Bailey, who is coming off his best start of the season (5.2 IP – 1 ER – 7 K), but has had an otherwise miserable season and is pitching in a power friendly park under humid conditions (see Kevin’s early forecast). Tommy Pham (202 wRC+, 40 Hard%), Dexter Fowler (329 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%) and Matt Carpenter (159 wRC+, 36.4 Hard%) have all been torching the ball over the last week and all are above a 130 wRC+ and 190 ISO vs RHP this year.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Homer Bailey, Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter Houston is up to 6.44 implied runs along with several more substantial run line moves today
The Houston Astros are now up to 6.44 implied runs and lead the slate by nearly a full run over the St Louis Cardinals (5.52). It’s an upward movement of nearly a quarter run. They were at 6.21 runs earlier this afternoon. In a corresponding move, their opponents, the White Sox, have dropped from 3.29 to 3.06 implied runs and now have the lowest total on the board. That was not the only game with significant run line movement this afternoon, although each of the other three games affected had teams going in the same direction. Both the Nationals and Braves are up, the former three-tenths of a run (4.94 to 5.24) and the latter two-tenths (4.06 to 4.26), since early this afternoon. Two more games have seen significant drops. The Royals (4.36) and Blue Jays (4.64) are both down one-quarter of a run, while the Diamondbacks (3.78) and Padres (3.22) are each down around the same amount. Players can view run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Luke Weaver expected to compete with Chris Sale for highest ownership rate on DraftKings
An inexpensive Corey Seager on FanDuel is the only batter expected to reach 20% ownership tonight. Realize that Seager is likely only below $3K due to a recent elbow injury that he still may be dealing with the effects of (64 wRC+ last seven days). None the less, a healthy Corey Seager would be a major bargain at this price in most matchups. Chris Sale is facing a Baltimore lineup absent both Tim Beckham and Manny Machado on Wednesday. He’s expected to compete with Luke Weaver for the highest ownership rate on DraftKings, while Sale is expected to be in around 25% of FanDuel lineups, 10 points higher than Brad Peacock, who costs nearly $3K less. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Brad Peacock, Corey Seager Felix Hernadez unlikely to throw more than 80 pitches tonight
Felix Hernandez won’t throw more than 80 pitches on Wednesday night according to his manager. He threw just 54 in his first start back from a long DL stint last time out. Hernandez has a great matchup against the Rangers, who have just an 84 wRC+ and 25.9 K% on the road with an even worse 32 wRC+ and 30.2 K% over the last week, but he hasn’t been his previously dominant self for a number or seasons and has a board high 10.4% Barrels/BBE this year. The workload limitation is likely to make him not worth the risk tonight, though players probably shouldn’t be rushing to roster Rangers in a difficult park either. Joey Gallo (127 wRC+, 50 Hard%) is the only batter on the team with at least 10 PAs and a wRC+ above 70 over the last week.
As reported by: MLB.com Other tagged players: Joey Gallo No serious concerns in the evening weather forecast
A few isolated showers in Pittsburgh gives the Brewers and Pirates a low chance of a late start or delay, but that’s the only game even mentioned as a weather issue in tonight’s forecast. Kevin also mentions some pitcher friendly conditions in Seattle. Read the entire report on the Weather page and catch Kevin in RotoGrinders Premium Chat between 6-7pm in for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Alex Wood and Jon Lester have struggled recently, but had improved stat lines last time out
Both Jon Lester and Alex Wood has strong conventional results last time out after a recent period of struggles. Lester has gone six innings in each of his last two starts with two runs or less. However, he’s walked four with just five strikeouts in each start. He’s generated enough ground balls (53.1%) and weak contact (0.0 Hard-Soft%) in those two starts to make it work though. While there are several higher upside arms in his price range tonight, Tampa Bay has a 26.3 K% and 87 wRC+ against LHP that could make him interesting. Alex Wood struck out eight in six scoreless innings in Washington last time out among concerns of a drop in velocity and arms slot recently. In fact, his velocity has been slowly trending downward for months and dropped even further in his best start since the All Star break. His 33.3 GB% also matched his hard hit rate against the Nationals, not inspiring a ton of confidence. Further, aside from a few more change-ups to account for the predominance of RHBs in that lineup, there looked to be no further alteration in his pitch allocation or any other obvious reason for the turn around. The good news is that he faces a Philadelphia team with a 28.7 Hard both at home and against LHP this year. They do have a 17.3 HR/FB over the last week, but with just a 23.8 Hard%. PlateIQ shows tonight’s confirmed Phillies lineup with a .335 wOBA, .230 ISO and just an 18.1 K% vs LHP this year though.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jon Lester Tonight's confirmed Baltimore lineup against Chris Sale is without Machado and Beckham
While Chris Sale is always considered one of the if not THE top arm on any slate (he’s the top projected pitcher on the slate according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections), he has some serious competition for players’ daily fantasy dollars tonight among three additional arms above a 30% strikeout rate tonight. The Orioles may have just put out a lineup that is going to make it difficult to resist attempting to squeeze Sale into a lot of lineups tonight. Out are both Manny Machado and Tim Beckham in favor of Austin Hays in the leadoff spot and Ryan Flaherty at third base. While PlateIQ still shows this confirmed lineup with a formidable .329 wOBA and .176 ISO against LHP this year, it’s really not that impressive when considering the power boosting properties of that park and comes with a 24.5 K%, just a bit higher than the team’s overall 23.1 K% vs LHP.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Austin Hays, Ryan Flaherty Mike Trout and Mookie Betts are top projected batters tonight
Mookie Betts and Mike Trout are the top projected batters by the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. While the order may be reversed no either site, they’re clearly the top two bats by more than a quarter of a point on both sites tonight. Trout faces Josh Tomlin, who’s normally pronounced reverse split is absent this year, but RHBs still have a .337 wOBA and 34.1 Hard% against him this year. Trout (193 wRC+, .361 ISO) has just a 63 wRC+ over the last week. Someone had to teach him what the word slump meant. Betts is facing Wade Miley (RHBs .372 wOBA, 49.4 GB%, 31.5 Hard%), who lasted just seven batters in his last start due to a rare condition that produces an inability to record outs. He’d generated a 50% or better ground ball rate with a hard hit rate below 27% in five of his six previous starts with a league average strikeout rate over that span. While there’s certainly room for some exposure against him, he hasn’t been the traditional whipping boy as often since the start of August. Houston and Washington are the only two teams with multiple top 10 projected batters on both sites tonight. The Houston contingent of George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa is obvious against James Shields (26 HRs in 19 starts this year), while the appearance of Daniel Murphy (along with Trea Turner) against Lucas Sims might be more curious due to his current hamstring issues. He is in the lineup tonight, but has just a 17 wRC+ over the last week (12 PAs, four strikeouts), but has made hard contact on 71.4% of batted balls (seven) over that span. Sam Travis (4.06 Pt/$/K), Yonder Alonso (3.93 Pt/$/K) and Corey Seager (3.74 Pt/$/K) are all projected as great, cheap value plays on FanDuel. Whit Merrifield (2.42 Pt/$/K) is a top DraftKings value against Brett Anderson for just $3.3K.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Whit Merrifield, Sam Travis, Corey Seager Aaron Wilkerson is a 28 year-old rookie with a 19.0 K-BB% at AA this year
As is customary this time of year due to attrition, inning conservation or just organizational assessment, a number or rookies find their way into rotations in September, complicating life for daily fantasy baseball players who know little about these new arms. While seven of tonight’s starts have come into this season with fewer than 50 innings pitches in their major league career, a few, like Luke Weaver, Dinelson Lamet and even Jakob Junis have thrown enough innings for players to understand who they are. Three of tonight’s pitchers have made five or fewer starts this year and one is making his first major league start. Aaron Wilkerson is the guy to concentrate on here because he’s the most interesting. Upon perusal of his Fangraphs page, one is initially unimpressed that this 28 year-old has yet to reach the majors and even spent all 24 starts in AA this year. A rookie of this age is not expected to be on the prospect radar and in fact, he isn’t. However, he generated a 19.0 K-BB% in those 24 AA starts after a similar record in 20 AAA starts across two organizations last year. Why was a clearly competent arm demoted? There’s no HR problem apparent, he’s only been even in double digits in HR/FB at one level two years ago and has a low of a 21.9 K% at any level of his minor league career. Of course, he’s played quite a bit old for every level and the information available suggests league average velocity, but there the minor league numbers dictate he could be a bit more interesting than your average 28 year-old September roster filling rookie. This is not an endorsement to roster him tonight as there’s still clearly very little known about him (Chris Flexen has similar AA numbers this year and look how that’s worked out), but the Pirates do have just a 10.5 HR/FB at home and 21.5 K-BB% over the last week. Players should probably be cautious in rostering Pittsburgh bats in this spot.
Four of tonight's pitchers have a strikeout rate above 30%
Tonight’s slate boasts no fewer than four pitchers exceeding a 30% strikeout rate this season and yet another one just below that mark (Dinelson Lamet 29.2%). Chris Sale (35.9 K%, 14.9 SwStr% both top the slate) is the widely accepted top arm on the board and there’s nothing wrong with that if he can be afforded. He has just one double digit strikeout performance over his last six starts, but at least eight in four of them. He’s been a bit more homer prone lately (14 over his last 16 starts and multiple homers in six starts) and Baltimore has power (17.5 HR/FB at home, 15.5 HR/FB vs LHP), but they also have a 17.6 K-BB% vs LHP. If most superhero origin stories start with a freak accident, then Robbie Ray may be the newest member of the Avengers. Since returning from a line drive off his head, he’s struck out 55 of 123 batters. His 43.4 mph aEV is higher than Ricky Nolasco and lower only than Brett Anderson on tonight’s board, but that’s not as important when nobody’s making contact. While the appropriate response might be to point and laugh at the Padres in San Diego, they’ve somehow been able to make a mockery of two fairly competent Arizona pitchers in this series (Patrick Corbin and Zack Godley). Luke Weaver had a HR problem last year (21.2 HR/FB). He doesn’t this year (12.9 HR/FB). Add his 31 K% and 5.9 BB% to his 55.7 GB% and 22.2 Hard% over a full season and he’s a Cy Young contender. Of course, an 87.8 LOB% is unsustainable and 10.3 SwStr% does not entirely support the strikeout rate, but there’s no doubt he’s been a superior arm since being recalled. Cincinnati (16.3 HR/FB at home) could present a challenge to his newfound contact suppression ability, but they have a 25.5 K% over the last week. Brad Peacock struck out just three in his last start, his second start with fewer than five with a single digit SwStr% in his last three. His 30.4 K% is just fourth on this board with the concern being that he’s only gone more than six innings twice this year, but that’s probably why he costs less than $10K. He’s been a quality contact manager as well (2.4 Hard-Soft%) and has induced more hard contact than weak in just one of his last five starts. The confirmed White Sox lineup has a .320 wOBA and .175 ISO vs RHP, better than their season 91 wRC+, but the strikeouts (25.5%) have remained in line with their 23.7% rate for the season. Lamet has struck out eight or more in three of his last five starts. His 47.1% hard hit rate in Minnesota last time out was only his second time above 25% in nine starts. While his 14 HRs have been split evenly this season, his .231 wOBA against RHBs is over 100 points lower than against LHBs due to a 16.5 point increase in K-BB (26.9%) against them vs LHBs. Pertinent information hosting Arizona tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Luke Weaver, Brad Peacock, Dinelson Lamet Josh Donaldson has a 328 wRC+ with a slate leading five HRs over the last week
Albert Almora (421 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, one HR) is the hottest batter on the slate by wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.). Both he and Dexter Fowler (362 wRC+, 45.5 Hard%, two HRs) meet the minimum PA requirement, but both are below 15 PAs. Almora is in the middle of the Cubs’ lineup against Blake Snell tonight. RHBs have all 14 of his HRs he’s surrendered this year, but over his last 10 starts, they have just a .305 wOBA with four HRs (15.5 K-BB%, 5.3 Hard-Soft%). Fowler is in a nice spot facing the rookie, Rookie Davis in Cincinnati. Josh Donaldson (238 wRC+, 47.6 Hard%, five HRs) is probably the top hitter in the league over the last week taking all factors into account. Donaldson also leads the slate in HRs over the last week with Matt Olson (six HRs) the only batter in the majors with more over that span. He’s at home against another rookie tonight, Jakob Junis, who has allowed RHBs just a .310 wOBA, but also has allowed them a hard hit rate (39.5%) that’s 10 points higher than his ground ball rate (29.7%) against them. A.J. Pollock (325 wRC+, 52.9 Hard%, three HRs) is heating up too. He homered in San Diego last night, but has a more difficult task against Dinelson Lamet tonight (RHBs .231 wOBA). Among those who have made hard contact on at least 70% of batted balls over the last week, there are six such batters with at least 10 PAs. All have at least a 30 K% and only Domingo Santana (225 wRC+, 70 Hard%, two HRs) has more than 13 PAs, giving us a reasonable sample size of 10 batted balls to work with.
Other tagged players: Domingo Santana, Dexter Fowler, Albert Almora, A.J. Pollock The Houston Astros are implied for 6.2 runs against James Shields (26 HRs in 19 starts)
The Houston Astros have the highest implied run (6.2) line on the slate tonight at Coors…wait, no, they’re just facing James Shields, who has allowed 26 HRs in 19 starts this year. In fact, he’s only started two games this year in which he hasn’t allowed a HR. While batters from either side have hit the ball hard on about one-third of contact with a ground ball rate below 40%, LHBs have a .394 wOBA with 17 HRs against him compared to .315 to RHBs with nine HRs. This might give players like Josh Reddick (131 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP), who has three career HRs in 22 PAs against Shields, and Marwin Gonzalez (147 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) some extra appeal from the left side of the plate, but the power from the right side is certainly in play as well. Five more teams are projected between 4.9 and 5.55 runs by Vegas, which is a bit light on an 11 game slate and could bunch hitter ownership tonight, but there are enough pitchers that players should clearly want to attack on this slate, including Ricky Nolasco, who is tied for the third most HRs allowed in the majors (34). He has an 89.8 mph aEV this year, while no other pitcher on the board even reaches 89 mph. He also has the displeasure of facing the Indians, albeit in a favorable park at home. The Indians have six projected starters with an ISO above .225 against RHP this year. Without Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor (both .228), that improves to four batters (Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce and Lonnie Chisenhall) with a .250 or better ISO vs RHP. Brett Anderson is another optimal target. Without ground balls, he loses all effectiveness and his rate has been below 48% in five of his last six starts, which stretches back to early in the season before his standard DL stint. RHBs have a 37.9 GB% and 47.8 Hard% against him over this span (.420 wOBA, 4 HRs). While the Royals are not a proficient offense against LHP (86 wRC+), they do have a few bats who can do damage in Whit Merrifield (125 wRC+, .234 ISO vs LHP), Lorenz Cain (102 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP), Salvador Perez (90 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Melky Cabrera (103 wRC+, .191 ISO).
Other tagged players: Marwin Gonzalez, James Shields, Ricky Nolasco, Brett Anderson, Whit Merrifield, Lorenzo Cain, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce Start of A's @ Tigers to be delayed
The start of the game between the A’s and Tigers will be delayed in Detroit. First pitch is now expected at 7:25 ET. Kevin is still in RotoGrinders Premium Chat giving updates on this and other games with weather concerns.
As reported by: Detroit Tigers Start of Tuesday's LAD-PHI game will be delayed due to rain, expected to begin at 7:35 pm ET
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies will start in a rain delay. The game is tentatively expected to begin play at 7:35 pm local time. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW/ORANGE in his updated weather forecast due to the likelihood of a rain delay, and, unfortunately, a postponement cannot be fully ruled out either. So, this does put both starting pitchers and hitters at risk in this matchup should there be another rain delay or an eventual postponement. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page for more information. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: Alanna Rizzo via Twitter