DFS Alerts
Twins @ Yankees to be delayed
The Twins and Yankees are going to be delayed. Just a reminder, Kevin is in RotoGrinders Premium Chat right now giving updates on a busy weather night.
As reported by: New York Yankees
Daniel Murphy scratched, Wilmer Difo replaces and bats sixth
Daniel Murphy scratched, Wilmer Difo replaces and bats sixth
As reported by: Mark Zuckerman Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy Max Scherzer is not projected to be the most popular pitcher the board
It might be fair to call Tuesday a pitching leaning slate with questionable weather and a lack of high run scoring environments in play, along with several strong arms on the mound. This leads to a projection of just a couple of batters projected to even reach 15% ownership on either site. Chris Iannetta is the only one currently expected to reach that number on both sites. It’s also rare that Max Scherzer is not projected to be the most popular pitcher on a slate absent names like Sale, Kluber and Kershaw either. However, he’s expected to be only the second most popular pitcher on either site right now, behind Zack Godley on FanDuel and Chris Archer, now below $8K on DraftKings due to recent struggles. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projacted Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Zack Godley, Chris Archer, Chris Iannetta Several games have the potential to be impacted by weather tonight
The remnants of Hurricane Jose are being felt in the north east and have some impact on the MLB slate tonight. Minnesota New York (AL) and Los Angeles (NL) Philadelphia are most likely to be impacted by this. Both are currently YELLOW/ORANGE. Washington Atlanta gets a YELLOW/ORANGE too, while Oakland Detroit gets the lone ORANGE grade. The good news there is that they may start okay, but may also need to hurry to play nine. There are now several pitching concerns on the slate including Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. Players will want to be sure to follow Kevin into RotoGrinders Premium Chat between 6-7PM to further assess their risk in these spots tonight. The full report is available on the Weather page.
The big three in Houston (Springer, Altuve, Correa) project as top bats against Lucas Giolito
Paul Goldschmidt is the top overall projected batter on either site according to the RotoGrinders player projections. That much the projections for each site agree upon. Goldy faces Travis Wood (RHBs .392 wOBA, 31.3 Hard%), which is going to be strong matchup in any park. Teammate J.D. Martinez (239 wRC+, 518 ISO vs LHP) sits one spot outside the top 10 on either site and the argument might be made that those two spots deserve to be switched. While both Carlos Correa and George Springer are among the top four DraftKIngs against Lucas Giolito (RHBs 42.5 Hard%), Jose Altuve sits behind J.D. Martinez. However, the three Astros run fifth through seventh on FanDuel, though there’s less than a half point of projected difference between the third and 11th spot there. Brian Dozier is the other player who appears among the top five on either site because he punishes LHP (158 wRC+, .315 ISO since last season). The difficult here is that C.C. Sabathia hasn’t been very bad against RHBs (.317 wOBA, 31.3 Hard%) and may not see the order a third time due to the strength andn depth of the Yankee bullpen. Miguel Cabrera projects as a top value on either site for $3K or less against Daniel Gossett (RHBs .363 wOBA, 35.1 Hard%), while a pair of Nationals (Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman) project as top FanDuel values against Luiz Gohara, who blew through three levels of the minors to reach the Braves as a fire-balling 21 year old, but he has occasionally struggled with control at stops and the fact that the Nationals have just seen him in his last start likely benefits the hitters more than the pitcher.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer, JD Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, Brian Dozier, Miguel Cabrera, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Lucas Giolito Six pitchers on tonight's slate have an aEV below 86 mph with low Barrel and 95+ mph rates too
Tuesday night’s slate is particularly abundant in strong contact managers with 11 pitchers carrying an average exit velocity below 86 mph. Six of those have allowed barrels on 5% or fewer of batted balls and 95 mph exit velocity on less than 30% of batted balls. Those six may include some pitchers on players’ radars, but also probably many who aren’t (and probably shouldn’t be due to either low strikeout or high walk rates or both). They are C.C. Sabathia (84.1 mph aEV, 4% Barrels/BBE, 29.6% 95+ mph EV), Chase Anderson (84.5 mph, 4.4%, 25.5%), Jose Berrios (85.3 mph, 4.6%, 28.7%), Mike Montgomery (85.1 mph, 3.2%, 28.4%), Odrisamer Despaigne (82.3 mph, 3.9%, 28.4%) and Trevor Williams (84.8 mph, 5%, 28.7%). Anderson and Montgomery have workload concerns. The former has only completed six innings once in six starts since returning from injury, while the latter has thrown more than 90 innings just once this season. Sabathia has increased his strikeout rate to 21.4% over the last month, but with a small drop in swinging strike rate to 8.2%. Despaigne has an 11.3% strikeout rate and has worked almost exclusively out of the pen until recently. Williams has just a 17.5 K% this season and an 11.8 BB% over his last six starts, which has held him to five innings or less in three of them. Berrios is probably the most interesting name, but he has one of the more difficult matchups at Yankee Stadium tonight. He’s also been fairly inconsistent, striking out seven or more in four straight before six strikeouts to go with six walks over his last two starts. He had a stretch of eight straight starts with six strikeouts or fewer to start July too. Whether considering rostering any of these pitchers or not, players may want to think twice about rostering batters against them as well.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: CC Sabathia, Chase Anderson, Mike Montgomery, Odrisamer Despaigne, Trevor Williams Tuesday's slate is lacking favorable run scoring environments
One particularly interesting thing to note tonight is the lack of positive run environments in play tonight. While AL East parks like Baltimore, New York and Toronto play favorably for power, along with Cincinnati, none are too much worse than neutral in terms of run scoring. Actually, according to Seamheads’ three year park factors, those four parks are the only parks in play tonight that are even slightly run positive. West coast parks like San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles (AL), and San Diego are all in play tonight and all have been extremely run negative in recent years. Zack Godley has struck out 24 of his last 77 batters with a 59.6 GB% over his last three starts and looks like a particularly strong pitching candidate with the park upgrade at Petco tonight. Then there are parks like Pittsburgh, which plays nearly neutral, but crushes power from the right-hand side and has two pitcher who have excelled at contact management on the mound tonight (Chase Anderson vs Trevor Williams). Players might be surprised to know that although parks like Houston and Philadelphia have been power friendly in recent season, they too have been run negative. If targeting the more favorable parks of the north east for offense tonight, weather is another thing to take into account, as parts of the area are feeling the remnants of Hurricane Jose with potentially strong gusts throughout the evening.
As reported by: Seamheads Three Year Park Factors Other tagged players: Chase Anderson, Trevor Williams Underlying numbers (13.2 SwStr%, 20.8 Hard%) better than results in Max Scherzer's recent starts
Last week, there was a bit of concern for a group of normally top pitchers including Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, Aaron Nola and Marcus Stroman. Of that group, Nola was the one to go out and dominate, striking out 11 in seven innings and now 19 of his last 52 batters. While his season ground ball rate (49.6%) dipped under 50% with that start, he’s now generated a hard hit rate below 17% and swinging strike rate above 13% in three of his last four starts. He may be the guy players should have the most confidence in among this group right now. The Dodgers have a 22 K% on the road and vs RHP, a 27.8 K% over the last week. Yu Davish had his best start in over a month last time out (7 IP – 3 H – 0 ER – 0 BB – 5 K – 22 BF – 87 pitches). The concerns were that the start took place in San Francisco and that he’s failed to reach 100 pitches in all but one start as a Dodger. He remains a high priced arm on a team that appears to be looking to conserve all of their arms as they coast into the post-season. Max Scherzer’s last three starts: 17 IP – 15 H – 12 ER – 1 HR – 5 BB – 16 K – 76 BF. To make it even worse, this was against the bottom of the NL East (Phillies and Braves) last two times out. The good news is that the underlying numbers (13.2 SwStr%, 20.8 Hard%) are a bit more encouraging than results over this span. Stroman is a bit of a concern from a hard contact perspective. He’s always allowed it at about a league average rate with the elite rate of ground balls actually pushing his BABIP above .300, but his hard hit rate has been above 33% in seven straight starts now (40.3%). For the season, his 88.4 mph aEV and 38.8% 95+ mph EV are each second worst on the board, though the elite ground ball rate results in 5.2% Barrels/BBE. Kansas City is a weak enough matchup (92 wRC+ vs RHP) that he can probably still be considered for less than $8.5K on either site though. Chris Archer remains the biggest concern among the group. His last three starts: 7 IP – 13 R (11 ER) – 3 HR – 4 BB – 10 K – 43 BF. He left his first start of the month with an injury after allowing HRs to the first two batters. Although his velocity has rebounded, he hasn’t looked sharp. He has a 55.6 GB% in two starts since, but without a single weakly hit ball (0.0 Soft%). His 88.9 mph aEV and 39.1% 95+ mph EV are both highest on the board. The Cubs 23.3 HR/FB last seven days and perhaps some exposure to their left-handed bats is not a terrible idea. LHBs have a 43.3 Hard% against Archer this season. .
Other tagged players: Aaron Nola, Marcus Stroman, Chris Archer, Yu Darvish Eric Thames (368 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%) and Josh Donaldson (five HRs) are hottest batters over the last week
Eric Thames (368 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, three HRs) is the hottest active batter on the slate over the last week according to wRC+ (10 PA min.). The difficult in his matchup tonight is going to be that Trevor Williams, who struggles peripherally (walks and strikeouts) has been a superior contact manager (LHBs .330 wOBA, 23.1 Hard%). Josh Donaldson (344 wRC+, 50 Hard%, five HRs) will now be teeing off against Ian Kennedy (RHBs .332 wOBA, 36 Hard%). Jose Ramirez (300 wRC+, 40 Hard%, one HR) faces Tyler Skaggs (RHBs .326 wOBA, 33.8 Hard%) in Los Angeles, not an ideal hitting environment. Yasmani Grandal (-6 wRC+, 80 Hard%, no HRs) has struck out in seven of 14 PAs, walking in two more despite just a 7.3 SwStr%. Odd weak, but has hammered the ball four of the five times he has made contact. No batter with more than his 14 PAs has a hard hit rate above 70% over the last week. Mike Zunino (277 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, two HRs) is tied with Thames for hard contact on two-thirds of batted balls. He’ll face Martin Perez, whom he homered against in Texas last week. Aside from the significant environmental downgrade though, Perez has generated a 51.7 GB% and 25 Hard% against RHBs over his last eight starts. Donaldson’s five HRs are tied for the league lead with Eddie Rosario (260 wRC+, 45.8 Hard%) and Matt Olson (229 wRC+, 37.5 Hard%). Both of the latter are LHBs facing LHPs, though Olson has spanked same-handed pitching in a small sample (101 wRC+, .231 ISO) with his team owning the highest implied run line against Chad Bell tonight.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Jose Ramirez, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Zunino, Eddie Rosario, Matt Olson Oakland (5.5) and Houston (5.46) have top run lines against rookie pitchers
Just seven of 30 teams are projected above 4.8 runs tonight with two teams (the Royals and Blue Jays) without a line currently due to Ian Kennedy just being named the starter this afternoon. Oakland (5.55) and Houston (5.46) are currently at the top of the board, nearly one-third of a run separated from the rest of the pack. Each is facing a rookie starter with no more than five starts this season. Chad Bell is a 28 year-old reliever and temporary spot holder in the Detroit rotation. Has allowed more hard contact than most pitchers on today’s board (38.7% 95+ mph aEV is third highest on the board). The A’s strike out a ton (25% on the road and vs LHP), adding just an 84 wRC+ and 10.9 HR/FB vs LHP. Khris Davis (108 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Ryon Healy (137 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP career) have previously been their best bats against LHP, though Matt Olson (101 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP) has added more legitimate power to that offense in a small sample and batting from the left-hand side. In 54.2 major league innings with three starts, RHBs have pounded Bell though (.403 wOBA – 179 BF – 8 HR – 5.6 K-BB% – 42 Hard%). While he hasn’t completed five innings in a start yet, it’s not like there should be concern about the Detroit bullpen, while most of their hitters are better against RHP. Lucas Giolito has long been a polarizing prospect, high on some lists, lower on others. To illustrate, he’s started five games this year, striking out 10 Tampa Bay batters in seven innings with one run during one of them. He’s struck out 16 with 10 walks over his other four starts. The Astros have been a more average offense the last couple of months, but started so strong that they still carry a 122 wRC+ at home and 121 wRC+ vs RHP. Individually, RHBs have a 42.5 Hard% against Giolito this season despite a .258 wOBA due to a .180 BABIP. LHBs have a .143 BABIP, which has resulted in a .295 wOBA despite five HRs, but he’s at least kept the hard contact to 29.8% against them. Overall, Giolito’s 86.4 mph aEV, 6.0% Barrels/BBE and 34.3 95+ mph EV is not terrible. The Houston lineup is full of strong RHBs against RHP though. The core three would seem strong plays tonight. None of George Springer (135 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP), Jose Altuve (162 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP) and Carlos Correa (131 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP) are above $4K on FanDuel. Alex Bregman (104 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP) has been competent as well for less than $4K on either site.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Chad Bell, Lucas Giolito, Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Ryon Healy Ian Kennedy will start for the Royals in Toronto tonight
Ian Kennedy will make the start for the Royals in Toronto tonight and not Sam Gaviglio as originally thought. Batters from either side have torched Kennedy this season for a wOBA above .330 and double digit HRs. However, LHBs have hit him a bit harder (33.3 GB%, 45.6 Hard%) than RHBs (40.6 GB%, 36 Hard%). While batters had a similarly high wOBA against Gaviglio from either side, he generated a few more ground balls with hard contact more in the league average range. This would seem like an overall upgrade to the Toronto offense from a daily fantasy perspective.
As reported by: Rustin Dodd Raul Alcantara will start for Oakland tonight, Jharel Cotton has been scratched
Cotton is a last minute scratch, and a reason has not yet been given. His replacement – Raul Alcantara – has allowed 15 runs and four home runs in 11 IP this season, so the Detroit offense gets a modest upgrade as a result of the change. The Oakland lineup still probably makes for a better overall stack given their HR upside, but Detroit has more appeal now than they did earlier this afternoon. Kinsler, Castellanos and Cabrera are the top three Detroit targets, but Jeimer Candelario is a lesser known name with considerable appeal out of the two spot in the lineup.
As reported by: Evan Woodbery Other tagged players: Raul Alcantara
Patrick Corbin expected to compete with Clayton Kershaw for highest ownership rate tonight
Along with the elite power bat of Giancarlo Stanton in a favorable spot against Matt Harvey, players are also expected to flock to Dodger bats against Nick Pivetta (RHBs. .415 wOBA) with Austin Barnes potentially being the low cost value play of choice tonight, though no batter is currently projected higher than 20% ownership on either site. This might allow players to pay up for Clayton Kershaw in Philadelphia on a weak slate. Normally, that’s an easy choice, but Kershaw has not been as dominant as usual since returning from injury. Patrick Corbin is expected to give him some competition tonight, projected to be within 10 points of ownership of Kershaw on either site. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Austin Barnes, Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Harvey, Nick Pivetta A quiet MLB weather forecast on Monday night.
Monday’s slate is quiet on the weather front with nothing more than the potential for a few sprinkles on the east coast, but Kevin is not worried about any serious impact on tonight’s games. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and find Kevin on RotoGrinders Premium Chat between 6-7PM for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Elite power hitters (and Byron Buxton) top the RotoGrinders Player Projections board tonight
Power hitters top the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. On a slate consisting of many home run prone pitchers, this shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Giancarlo Stanton is the top overall projected batter by nearly a full point on either site tonight. While opposing pitcher Matt Harvey has had severe issues with LHBs this season, RHBs have a .328 wOBA and 31.4 Hard% against him, while Stanton’s 40% fly ball rate against RHP should counteract Harvey’s 51.1 GB% against RHBs. Jaime Garcia hasn’t been as HR prone this season (17 allowed), but Brian Dozier is still destroying LHPs (172 wRC+, .305 ISO). One thing players should note is that Garcia’s outings have been shorter as a Yankee and he’s backed up by a lights out bullpen. There’s every chance in the world he doesn’t see Dozier a third time unless he’s pitching extremely well. Cody Bellinger, like Stanton, is facing another pitcher who has more issues with batters from the other side of the plate, but his dominance against RHP (146 wRC+, .345 ISO) can not be questioned. Aaron Judge faces Ervin Santana, who has allowed 27 HRs over his last 24 starts. The potential surprise among the top five projected batters in Byron Buxton, but that’s only for those who haven’t been paying attention to his recent work (126 wRC+ vs LHP this season, 209 wRC+ last seven days). However, keep in mind he faces the same dilemma as Brian Dozier, their platoon advantage likely to be negated not much further than halfway through the game. Miami places several batters among the top 10 with Marcell Ozuna and Justin Bour appearing in the FanDuel projections and Ozuna with Dee Gordon on the DraftKings portion. Gary Sanchez joins Judge to make for the third team with at least two batters among the top 10 tonight. Buxton (3.79 Pt/$/K) doubles as a top value on FanDuel ($3.1K), while Miguel Cabrera (3.78 Pt/$/K FD, 2.49 DK) projects as a top value for $3K or less on either site.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gaby Sanchez, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, Cody Bellinger, Miguel Cabrera