DFS Alerts
With a lack of high cost pitching Friday, players are expected to pay up for Arizona bats on DraftKings
While no batter on the entire slate is currently projected to be in more than 15% of lineups on either site, FanDuel players could gravitate to cheaper bats like Eduardo Escobar and Chris Iannetta on teams with the top projected run lines, while DraftKings players may be more likely to pay up for more of the Arizona lineup, which they can then supplement with more affordable arms. As such, Jon Gray ($8.9K) is expected to be the most popular pitcher on the site with Zack Greinke also projected for 30% ownership. Greinke is also projected for the highest ownership on FanDuel as well, in the 20% range. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Jon Gray, Zack Greinke
Popup storms in Atlanta the only concern on the board on Friday night
Similar to last night, the only concern on the slate is the potential for a popup storm in Atlanta, which could cause a delay. The game between the Phillies and Braves is not likely high on the agenda of most daily fantasy players, so avoiding pitchers here shouldn’t be too difficult, if that’s even going to be necessary. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and catch Kevin in RotoGrinders Premium Chat from 6-7pm with further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Trio of Diamondbacks (Goldschmidt, Martinez, Pollock) among top projected hitters against Adam Conley
Three Arizona Diamondbacks are among the top 10 overall projected hitters by the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight, including the top projected bat on either site, Paul Goldschmidt. The D’Backs host Adam Conley, who has a 46.1 Hard% over the last month. RHBs have a .362 wOBA with five HRs, a 31 GB% and 47.2 Hard%. Goldschmidt leads projections on either site by more than one-third of a point and is joined in the top 10 by J.D. Martinez (.500 ISO vs LHP) and the red hot A.J. Pollock (276 wRC+ over the last week). The Boston Red Sox also place two batters in the top 10. Mookie Betts is joined by Andrew Benintendi in Cincinnati, but neither exceeds a .190 ISO vs RHP this season and Sal Romano has a 54.8 GB% over his last six starts with a -10.5 Hard-Soft% in September. Charlie Blackmon (150 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP) against Jordan Lyles in San Diego and Brian Dozier (163 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP) against Daniel Norris and the Detroit bullpen are both top five projected batters as well. A pair of Rays (Corey Dickerson 4.09 Pt/$/K, Logan Morrison 3.93 Pt/$/K) project as top values on FanDuel against Ubaldo Jimenez, while Dickerson doubles up on DraftKings (2.7 Pt/$/K). Both cost less than $3K on either site due to recent slumps. Jimenez struck out 10 of 19 Yankees last time out and actually has a 17.5 K-BB% over his last 14 starts.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Charlie Blackmon, Logan Morrison, Brian Dozier, Corey Dickerson Nationals post a lineup without a single major league regular against Robert Gsellman
On a dare, someone must have suggested to Dusty Baker that they could beat the Mets without the use of a single major league regular in the lineup. Only Willmer Difo, Howie Kendrick and Adam Lind, all in the top half of the lineup, have seen semi-regular at bats among a confirmed lineup with a .248 wOBA and .090 ISO vs RHP this year with a 19.7 K-BB%. The question is, does this add Robert Gsellman to the plethora of usable arms tonight. He is coming off seven shutout innings with three hits against the Braves, but struck out just three in that start. Despite a hard hit rate below 20% in three straight starts now, his velocity has been dropping and he’s struck out a total of 11 batters over this span. While the matchup does make him look a lot better, this still doesn’t seem ideal for players looking to maximize upside with their fantasy dollars.
Other tagged players: Adam Lind, Wilmer Difo, Howie Kendrick Kyle Gibson and Sal Romano have been pitching better recently
Kyle Gibson has been an endlessly frustrating pitcher for years. He generates a high ground ball rate with a league average SwStr%, but never seems able to put it all together. In fact, he may have coerced daily fantasy players into giving him a look a few starts back and then struck out none of the 27 batters he faced. Despite that start though, he’s still generated a 21.2 K% and 11.2 SwStr% in 11 starts since the All-Star break now. Combining this with a 50.5 GB% and league average hard contact rate (32.1%) over this span should make him a useful contributor and potential daily fantasy asset against a more marginal Detroit offense than their season numbers suggest. His cost is not optimal (around $8K) for a pitcher who still deserves a lot of skepticism, but at the worst players might reconsider attacking him, although RHBs have hit him quite a bit harder over this span (37.8%) and Detroit still has a couple of those who hit same-handed pitching well. Sal Romano is another pitcher who’s recent performance should be noted even if players aren’t ready to roster him quite yet. He threw eight shutout innings at Pittsburgh last time out and has struck out six in two straight. He has a 51.1 GB% for the season, 54.8% over his last six starts, and a -10.5 Hard-Soft% in September. While Cincinnati is a very power friendly park, it doesn’t play much above neutral in terms of overall run environment and he’s facing a low power Boston offense (11.0 HR/FB vs RHP) that loses the DH tonight. Romano costs around $7K on either site.
Other tagged players: Sal Romano Jon Gray and Garrett Richards may be returning to form
Jon Gray and Garrett Richards are at the end of an injury plagued season that has stolen some of their former effectiveness. While Gray has survived with exceptional contact management (85.1 mph aEV, 4.6% Barrels/BBE, 4.9 Hard-Soft%) while his bat missing skills have taken a hit (8.9 SwStr%), there’s certainly reason for optimism in that regard in recent starts. His velocity has been trending up and with it, so have the strikeouts (17 of his last 35 batters with a 12+ SwStr% in each of his last two starts) to go along with a hard hit rate below 25% in five of his last seven starts. He takes on the Padres…who daily fantasy players no longer want to hear about after the damage they’ve done to quality pitchers this week. Though they still have just an 88 wRC+ and 24.4 K% over the last seven days and strikeout a quarter of the time with a 6.1 Hard-Soft% against RHP this year. Gray is a bit expensive, costing around $9K on either site. Garrett Richards threw five innings last time out (74 pitches), striking out a season high seven batters. He has an astounding 64.6 GB% through four starts with a hard hit rate below 28% in three starts since returning from the DL, in which he also now has a 14.3 SwStr%. He’s in Houston, which is not only one of the more difficult overall spots on the board, but they also have just a 17.3 K% vs RHP (15.7 K% last seven days). However, Richards costs just $7K or less on either site tonight and should be able to extend to close to 90 pitches at this point.
Other tagged players: Garrett Richards Rich Hill (29.3 K%) and Zack Greinke (27.4 K%) have highest strikeout rates and projected point totals on slate
While there are no Cy Young contenders on Friday’s board, there are a number of useful arms, including Rich Hill (vs San Francisco) and Zack Greinke (vs Miami), the top two strikeout rates on the board (29.3% and 27.4%). They are also the two top overall projected pitchers on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections). Jeff Samardzija has increased his strikeout rate again too (22 of last 79 batters) and while he’s allowed 20 of 28 HRs on the road, his hard hit rate has been below 25% in four of his five starts over the last month and Dodger Stadium is just as negative a run environment as his home park, if not as power suppressing. Masahiro Tanaka has been wildly inconsistent (seven or more strikeouts in five of his last eight, fewer than five in three of his last six – a ground ball rate either above 60% or below 40% in each of his last seven starts), but has tremendous upside with the highest SwStr rate (15%) on the slate. Michael Wacha has a league average strikeout rate and does well to limit hard contact and is in a great spot to do so again in Pittsburgh (10 HR/FB at home, 20.8 K-BB%, -3.6 Hard-Soft% last seven days). Trevor Bauer has a double digit SwStr% to go with his 27.4 K% over the last month. It’s really been a case of more sliders and less cutters. Hard contact has been an issue for him in the past, but he gets a substantial park upgrade in Seattle and has a hard hit rate below 25% in three of his last four starts. Justin Verlander has a 26.6 K-BB% over his last 12 starts. He still gives up a lot of home runs due to the extreme fly ball rate with a league average hard hit rate over that span, but dominant peripherals solve a lot of contact problems. The Angels struggle on the road and are a league average offense vs RHP. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board and one of only two who exceed $10K on both sites. Those are only most of the rosterable pitchers on tonight’s slate.
Other tagged players: Zack Greinke, Jeff Samardzija, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Wacha, Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer Dexter Fowler leads the majors with a 328 wRC+ (three HRs) over the last week
Dexter Fowler (328 wRC+, 42.1 Hard%, three HRs) is one of two batters above a .300 wRC+ over the last week and the only one with more than 10 PAs. He faces Ivan Nova in Pittsburgh, a more generous park to LHBs. Nova has allowed 24 HRs over his last 18 starts. Pedro Alvarez (312 wRC+, 50 Hard%, one HR) must want to stick in the majors. He’s smoked the ball in 10 PAs since returning. He does have a 124 wRC+ vs RHP since last year and faces Alex Cobb (RHBs 37.2 Hard%) in the very friendly confines of Baltimore (if he’s in the lineup). Josh Donaldson (299 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, five HRs) and Matt Olson (214 wRC+, 38.5 Hard%, five HRs) tie for the league lead in HRs over the last week. Donaldson travels to the Bronx to against HR prone Masahiro Tanaka (32 HRs allowed), while Olson remains at home against Nick Martinez (LHBs .357 wOBA) and is an interesting pivot off of Paul Goldschmidt for the contrarian player at the same price. Will Middlebrooks (19 wRC+, 83.3 Hard%) is the only batter to make hard contact on more than two-thirds of batted balls over the last week, but with only 10 PAs, four of which he’s struck out in. He has hit five of six batted balls hard though.
Other tagged players: Pedro Alvarez, Josh Donaldson, Matt Olson, Will Middlebrooks J.D. Martinez (.500 ISO vs LHP) leads the Diamondbacks to the top run line (5.94) against Adam Conley
Seven teams on a full 15 game slate have an implied run line between 4.79 and 5.04 currently. Half a run above them are the Twins at 5.5 and half a run above them, topping the board, are the Diamondbacks at 5.94 runs, hosting Adam Conley tonight He has a 46.1 Hard% over the last month. RHBs have a .362 wOBA with five HRs, a 31 GB% and 47.2 Hard%. Pitching is not that expensive tonight, so everyone will likely be paying up for J.D. Martinez (229 wRC+, .500 ISO, 54.7 Hard%, 45.3 FB% vs LHP). Paul Goldschmidt (137 wRC+, .262 ISO, 50 Hard% vs LHP) will also be highly coveted, but has just a 42 wRC+ over the last week. A.J. Pollock (118 wRC+, .269 ISO) and Chris Iannetta (135 wRC+, .203 ISO) have been the other big bats against southpaws this year, the former with a 276 wRC+, 50 Hard% and three HRs over the last week. Brian Dozier (163 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP) may be the second best bat on the slate. Daniel Norris makes his first major league start in months. He’s been pitching out of the pen in September, striking out just four of 32 batters faced. RHBs have a 40.1 GB% and 42.9 Hard% against him this year. While Norris is unlikely to make it deep into this game, the Detroit bullpen is nothing to fear, although the Twins probably won’t be holding platoon advantages afterward. Only three additional Twins have a wRC+ above 100 vs LHP (Byron Buxton, Joe Mauer, Robbie Grossman), none above 115. Of those three, only Buxton (.149) has an ISO even above .100 against left-handers this year, though several less potent Minnesota bats may make for reasonable salary savors if needed in a strong matchup tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Daniel Norris, Adam Conley, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Iannetta, A.J. Pollock, Byron Buxton, Joe Mauer, Robbie Grossman Popup showers in Atlanta the only concern in Thursday's forecast
The only concern on Thursday night’s slate is some pop-up showers in Atlanta that have the potential to cause a delay. The concern would be any lengthy interruption to Tanner Roark’s outing, so players are going to want to find Kevin in RotoGrinders Premium chat between 6-7PM for updates there. No other game is very likely to have much weather related impact, though Kevin does note a couple of areas with conditions more favorable towards offense than normal. Read the full report on the Weather page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Zach Davies and R.A. Dickey are the only two pitchers on the board below 30% 95+ mph EV
Tyler Anderson (84.1 mph) and Dallas Keuchel (84.5 mph) have the lowest average exit velocities on the slate, but Zach Davies (84.9 mph) and R.A. Dickey (85.4 mph) aren’t too far behind. In fact, the latter two are the only two with a 95+ mph EV rate below 30% (29.4% for Dickey, 29.6% for Davies), while Davies has the second lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (3.8%) on the board, behind only James Paxton (2.3%). Davies is certainly a quality contact manager (53.1 GB%, 26.1 Hard% over his last 22 starts), but his 15.7 K% does not endear him to daily fantasy players. His 4.66 SIERA and 4.28 DRA might be a bit over-stated, not really taking into account the quality of the contact allowed so much, but the low strikeout rate likely plays a part in his ERA being as high as 3.89 considering everything. Against the Cubs, this might be matchup best altogether avoided tonight. Dickey is a more difficult case. On top of the season long quality contact management, he’s allowed a hard hit rate above 30% in just one of his last 14 starts, yet he’s been lit up in three straight starts and has allowed at least four ERs in five of his last six. Perhaps he’s due for a rebound considering he doesn’t really seem to be getting hit all that hard, but knuckleballs aren’t all that easy to figure out. Multiple lineup players may want to utilize a Washington stack, though no single batter really stands out. Trea Turner (120 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP) adds a lot of speed, which would make him the top overall play here, though his high cost hardly makes him a great value.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: R.A. Dickey, James Paxton, Dallas Keuchel, Tyler Anderson, Trea Turner Josh Donaldson (158 wRC+, .338 ISO vs LHP) is tonight's top projected hitter against Jason Vargas
Josh Donaldson is the top projected batter (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on either site by at least one-third of a point. He has a 158 wRC+ and .338 ISO vs LHP to go along with a 322 wRC+ and five HRs over the last week and a plush matchup against Jason Vargas, who has allowed a .408 wOBA with 16 HRs and 41.2 Hard% to RHBs over his last 13 starts. Brian Dozier (vs Jordan Zimmermann), Trea Turner (vs R.A. Dickey), Nolan Arenado (vs Clayton Richard) and Jose Altuve (vs Carson Fulmer) fill out the top five. Particular attention has to be paid to Arenado (215 wRC+, .429 ISO vs LHP) when facing a southpaw in any park, but at a similar cost, Donaldson has the park advantage, but RHBs have a .373 wOBA, and 37 Hard% against Clayton Richard this year, though that also includes a 56.6 GB%. Eddie Rosario, Daniel Murphy and Justin Smoak gives each team a pair of the top 10 overall projected hitters tonight. Players may not necessarily need to save salary considering the cost of pitching tonight, but value hunting is never a bad idea. Logan Morrison (4.12 Pt/$/K) projects as the top value on FanDuel for just $2.5K against Gabriel Ynoa. Kendrys Morales (2.37 Pt/$K) is among the top values on DraftKings, giving Toronto stackers another difficult decision.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Trea Turner, Nolan Arenado, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, Eddie Rosario, Justin Smoak, Logan Morrison, Kendrys Morales Matt Davidson scratched Thursday
With Davidson scratched, Willy Garcia will now DH and bat 7th, with Kevan Smith and Tyler Saladino shifting up a spot in the order. This is a modest upgrade for Dallas Keuchel, but not much has changed with his outlook.
As reported by: @WhiteSox Other tagged players: Willy Garcia
Arrieta, Paxton and Anderson could all have smaller than normal workloads tonight
The presence of Jake Arrieta, James Paxton and Tyler Anderson would normally make a daily fantasy player happy on a nine game slate, but all three could be restricted tonight, having recently returned from the disabled list without the availability of minor league rehab starts. Arrieta makes his first start in two and a half weeks and will be held to 80 pitches or fewer. Paxton needed all 50 allotted pitches to get through just ten batters without a strikeout in his first start in over a month last week. If he’s following the same plan as Felix Hernandez, he’ll be in the same range as Arrieta tonight. Tyler Anderson has made two starts back from the DL with 59 and 73 pitches, the latter getting him through six shutout innings against these same Padres. He may get a bit more leniency and didn’t need many pitches to get through six last time out, but it’s hard to see him throwing more than maybe 85-90 pitches. The really interesting thing is that all three are facing offenses with a 25% strikeout rate against pitchers of their handedness and these pitchers have three of the top four strikeout rates on the slate. Arrieta costs more than $8K on either site and an astounding $9.6K on DraftKings. Paxton is just $7.4K on DraftKings though and Anderson only $6.4K on FanDuel. Considering the recent performance of the Padres against a good Arizona pitching staff, can players count on him to turn 85 pitches into at least six innings and a quality start again?
As reported by: Sports Tribune Other tagged players: James Paxton, Tyler Anderson Tanner Roark has a 28.5 K-BB% and 21.2 Hard% over the last month
Thursday night’s slate is more populated with contact managers than high strikeout pitchers, which is not always what daily fantasy players are looking for. There are just two guys with strikeout rate above 25%. One just barely meets that criteria and the other (James Paxton) isn’t even usable after throwing just 50 pitches in his return from the DL. That leaves Carlos Martinez as the defacto strikeout king on tonight’s board (25.4%) and it gets even more frustrating when the third best strikeout rate (Jake Arrieta 23.4%) is also working his way back from the DL tonight. Martinez also has the third highest ground ball rate (51.5%) on the board, allowing hard contact at about a league average rate (31.6 Hard%, 86.2 mph aEV). He’s in a marginal spot in Cincinnati. The Reds have a 28.7 K% over the last week, which is in his favor, but he does struggle against LHBs (.331 wOBA, 34.4 Hard%). Dallas Keuchel has struggled with peripherals (6.3 K-BB%) in 10 starts since returning from the DL with a small increase in hard contact (6.4 Hard-Soft%), but still mostly favorable batted ball outcomes (64.7 GB%). Over the last month, he has a -5.1 Hard-Soft%. He has the lowest aEV on the board (84.5 mph) for the season and is in a decent spot, hosting the White Sox. J.A. Happ misses bats at around a league average rate (22.1 K%, 9.5 SwStr%), generates ground balls at around a league average rate (46%) with better than average contact management (6.5 Hard-Soft%). He’s in a favorable spot against a Kansas City offense with a -2.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Tanner Roark has a 28.5 K-BB% and 21.2 Hard% over the last month. Though his 10.4 SwStr% doesn’t fully support a 31.7 K%, it’s easier when you’re not walking anyone. The Braves have an 11.0 HR/FB vs RHP and 22.8 Hard%, 36 wRC+ over the last week. Tyler Anderson has made two starts back from the DL with 59 and 73 pitches, the latter getting him through six shutout innings against these same Padres. He’s struck out seven of 34 batters with maybe a bit too much hard contact, but his Soft% matches his Hard% at 36% with a 60 GB%. His season ground ball and hard hit rate are both league average, not nearly as impressive as last year, while his strikeout rate is just a bit above (22.2%). All of that favorably compares him to any other pitcher tonight, except for the potential for another workload limitation, but he might be low cost enough to make it work. The Padres should be one of the top matchups on the board at home (25.2 K%, 81 wRC+ vs LHP), but after they just punished three quality Arizona starters at Petco, it’s a bit more. With the likely limitations of Arrieta and Paxton, Keuchel and Roark are the top projected pitchers on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections).
Other tagged players: Tyler Anderson, Carlos Martinez, Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, James Paxton, Jake Arrieta