DFS Alerts

Favorable Matchups Reduces Risk for Mid-Range Arms

The lack of high priced pitching on a small Monday night slate gives us a larger middle of the board with most of tonight’s arms in the $7-8K range, but one of the better projected values on FanDuel costs less than $7K ($400 less than his DraftKings price). It’s not often we’d consider a pitcher costing this little on a single pitcher site, but the matchup really forces our hand here. Jose Suarez has completed six innings just once this season and that was in one of his two relief appearances. He’s struck out batters at an average rate (21.5%) with an impressive 12.1 SwStr%, but also walked them at a double digit rate (10.1%) with 10.8% Barrels/BBE. The result has been that all estimators are within one-third of a run of his 4.55 ERA. The Athletics have just a 7.6 HR/FB (76 wRC+) at home and 86 wRC+ with a 22.3 K% vs LHP this season. Considering the middle of the board strikeout rate and power suppressing park, Suarez projects as tonight’s second best FanDuel value, though more middle of the board on DraftKings.

Another pitcher in the same mold, but more extreme in both strikeout rate and barrels allowed, is Yusei Kikuchi. He has competently struck out 10 of 35 Rays and Tigers since returning from the IL, allowing just three runs over nine innings. Whether due to previous ailments or some other reason, he’s developed a bit of a control problem this season (13.0 BB%), but has walked just two over these last two starts. He misses enough bats (25.5 K%), but the other issue is the same as it’s been the last few years…too many bombs. He’s allowed 15 home runs (20.3 HR/FB) on 30 barrels (15.3%) and has completed six innings just three times all year. The result is that his 4.86 ERA is about a half run above contact neutral estimators and more than that below contact inclusive ones. On a positive note, his best two pitches have been his changeup (14.3%, -2.2 RV/100, 39.6 Whiff%) and four-seam (51.6%, 0.4 RV/100, 26.8 Whiff%), which are two pitches the Orioles have performed the worst against (-0.26 wCH/C, -0.23 wFC/C). The Orioles, despite a predominantly right-handed lineup, also have just a 92 wRC+ with a board high split 25.4 K% vs LHP. Kikuchi is a top five value on either site for $7.7K or less. To illustrate how pitcher friendly Oakland is and Baltimore has become, the pitchers opposing Suarez and Kikuchi (Cole Irvin and Jordan Lyles) have allowed a combined 29 home runs this year, but only one each at home.

Zac Gallen has just two starts over his last 14 with at least six innings pitched and more than five strikeouts. He’s been fine (16.6 K-BB%), but just not really going deep into games with very many strikeouts all that often. His 3.31 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.49 DRA to a 3.84 xFIP because four of his 45 runs have been unearned and batters have just a .249 BABIP against him. However, he gets to face the Pirates tonight (78 wRC+, 19.8 K-BB% on the road, 85 wRC+, 25.0 K% vs RHP). Gallen is the fifth best projected FanDuel value for $9.6K, but the second best projected DraftKings value for less than $8K.

Basically, Jameson Taillon does everything else about average (20.8 K%, 88.2 mph EV, 7.5% Barrels/BBE, 39.9 GB%), while barely walking anyone (4.4%). His 3.96 ERA aligns within one-fifth of a run of all his estimators. However, with the exception of three straight starts of at least seven innings that started at the end of May, he’s only completed six innings three other times and never more. He costs just $7.7K on DraftKings and slots into your SP2 spot fine in a tough matchup (Mariners 103 wRC+, 21.2 K%), but a substantial park upgrade.

Lastly, neither Jordan Lyles (19.0 K%), nor Cole Irvin (17.0 K%) have much strikeout upside, both have been able to pitch a lot of innings due to their power suppressing home parks. Although, Irvin’s cost might be a bit high for a guy who’s only struck out more than four on four occasions, even if he does have six straight Quality Starts and is facing the Angels (84 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs LHP).

This Pitcher Has Been Better Than His ERA

A short seven game Monday night slate not only features a single $10K pitcher on FanDuel, but no other pitcher exceeding $9K on both sites either. Chris Bassitt costs $10.4K on FD, but $1.1K less on DraftKings. With Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom back and dealing, he’s nearly become an afterthought in this tremendous rotation, but has seven Quality Starts in his last eight (2.52 ERA/3.00 FIP/3.14 xFIP). He’s been a bit unfortunate with 15 of his 20 barrels (5.9%) leaving the yard for a 13.0 HR/FB), but even that has calmed down recently with a 10.0 HR/FB over this eight start stretch. A 3.71 FIP is Bassitt’s only season estimator above his 3.61 ERA, though he’s within half a run of them all. Citi Field is normally a pitcher friendly environment, but hitter friendly weather may make it play more neutrally tonight. The matchup is an extremely favorable one though. The Reds have a 76 wRC+ (8.4 HR/FB) on the road, an 85 wRC+ (24.2 K%) vs RHP and a 68 wRC+ (25 K%) over the last week. Bassitt is the second best projected pitcher on tonight’s board and a top four value on DraftKings, though projecting as the sixth best pitching value on FanDuel essentially places him in the middle of the board. To find out who tonight’s top projected pitcher and value is, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (lower body) scratched Sunday

Ronald Acuna Jr. (lower body) scratched Sunday

Kyle Tucker (illness) scratched Saturday

Kyle Tucker (illness) scratched Saturday

The start of Pirates-Orioles will be delayed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: The start of Pirates-Orioles will be delayed Friday due to inclement weather

Stacking Projections Don't Suggest Much Separation Atop the Board

Although the Brewers top the board with a team run total of 5.49, they don’t really separate much from a large, well distributed board, which results in no single stack currently projecting above nine percent ownership (although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). The Brewers aren’t even projected to be the most popular stack on DraftKingsl right now. That honor currently belongs to the Phillies, who have the second highest team run total (5.32). The same two offenses smash the slate most often in early simulations, but again, only Milwaukee reaches 10% on FanDuel, while they’re not separated very much from the rest of the board. The Pittsburgh Pirates project as the top value stack (15% on FD), but this is not a runaway situation either, as the Phillies are actually a top three value stack as well. While both the Phillies and Brewers do project strong Leverage Ratings, there are a couple of stacks that project even better. For more, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Projections Suggest Strong Value on Either Side of This Matchup

Projections for both sites tonight unanimously agree that some of the top value bats on the board can be found in Baltimore tonight, but not with the home team. Baltimore is no longer a hitter friendly park and Dean Kremer is also one of the top projected pitching values on the board. However, it’s like the Million Dollar Man always said, everybody’s got a price and we have found them for the Pittsburgh bats, despite just a 3.85 team run total. Kremer’s own value lies more in the matchup, price and new park factors since Baltimore moved the fence back. It doesn’t have much to do with his own performance. LHBs have a .313 wOBA and .338 xwOBA against him this year and RHBs are even better (.358 wOBA, .373 xwOBA). The Pirates, as a group, have been awful (86 wRC+ vs RHP), but not every Pirate has been awful. Ben Gamel (111 wRC+, .147 ISO vs RHP this year) is within $100 of $2.5K on either site and is the only Pirate to project as a top 10 value on both sites. He’s joined by minimum priced Cal Mitchell (65 wRC+) and Tucupita Marcano (101 wRC+, .140 ISO) as top DraftKings projected values and Bryan Reynolds (129 wRC+, .239 ISO) as a top FanDuel one for $2.8K.

FanDuel projections also believe a pair of Phillies are too cheap against the barrel prone Josiah Gray (11.5% Barrels/BBE). With LHBs owning a .404 wOBA (.352 xwOBA) against him, Kyle Schwarber (133 wRC+, .335 ISO) is not only the top projected bat on the board, but the second best projected FanDuel value for $3.5K. Nick Castellanos (83 wRC+, .130 ISO) has struggled all season, but projections still believe he’s too cheap in this spot ($2.5K FD).

The Chicago White Sox have a 4.62 implied run line against Glenn Otto. LHBs have just a .283 wOBA, but .370 xwOBA against him this year. FanDuel projections see a lot of value in Yoan Moncada (63 wRC+ vs RHP this year) and Gavin Sheets (102 wRC+, .175 ISO) for less than $2.5K. They are the only two LHBs in the projected lineup tonight, but RHBs have a .399 wOBA and .356 xwOBA against Otto this season.

Josh Winckowsski has struck out just two of his as last 38 batters. Sure, one of those starts was against Cleveland (17.7 K% vs RHP), but he now has nine starts with just a 14.1 K% (6.0 K-BB%). While exactly half his contact has been on the ground, he’s still allowing 8.3% Barrels/BBE, which is around league average, but also kind of disastrous with his strikeout rate. His 5.00 ERA is within half a run of all estimators. This is why the Royals have a 4.5 run team total and DraftKings projections suggest both Vinnie Pasquantino (83 wRC+, .134 ISO vs RHP) and Michael Massey (130 wRC+ since callup) are top values for $2.2K or less. LHBs have a .388 wOBA and .362 xwOBA against Winckowski.

Volatility Could Equal Value with Middle of the Board Arms

While we do have a couple of top of the board pitchers among tonight’s top projected values, many of these top values fall in the middle of the board. Kyle Gibson isn’t a high upside arm, but projects as a top two value on either site for exactly $7K, though he probably fits more as a DK SP2 than carrying a lineup on his own a single pitcher site. Gibson no longer has an estimator below four, but all are below his 4.60 ERA, as he’s allowed at least five runs in three of his last six starts, despite a .228 BABIP over this span (66.8 LOB%). His strikeout and ground ball rates have plummeted (15.5% and 42.2% last 11 starts) and pitching in Philadelphia, 11 of his last 15 barrels have left the yard. Ironically, Gibson still does have seven Quality Starts in his last 11 outings too and he hasn’t faced Washington yet this season. They are the second worst offense against slider this season (-0.92 wSL/C) and that’s been one of Gibson’s best pitches (-0.3 RV/100, 20.7%). They’re also probably a bit worse than their 94 wRC+ and 19.7 K% vs RHP this season after this week’s moves.

Even with a price discrepancy of $1.6K between sites, Dean Kremer is the fourth best projected value on either site, more likely due to park and matchup than his own performance. Kremer doesn’t often go beyond five innings with a below average strikeout rate (18.6%) and 9.9% Barrels/BBE allowed through 10 starts. That just 30.8% of his contact has been on the ground has been a bit less dangerous in Baltimore this year, which explains the gap between his 3.86 ERA and 4.09 FIP and his 5.45 xERA, which register as his estimator bookends. Just six of his 16 barrels have left the yard (8.3 HR/FB). Kremer likes to throw his cutter (-1.3 RV/100) 31.3% of the time. The Pirates have been the third worst offense in the league against cutters (-1.25 wFC/C), but are also pretty bad against every pitch. The Pirates have an 86 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP overall.

Jose Berrios is still a highly volatile, but most recently more interesting arm in a “revenge game” against the Twins. He has a 31.7 K% over his last five starts. Of course, he’s only been above 30% in one of those starts and this run has included facing both Oakland and Detroit, but its far better than what he was giving Toronto before July. He’s a good walk rate (5.5%) with a now average strikeout rate (21.6%) and terrible contact profile (90.6 mph EV, 11.1% Barrels/BBE). His 4.95 ERA is exactly one-third of a run above his FIP and still below his 5.20 xERA. Contact neutral estimators are closer to four. The four-seamer has been his worst pitch (30.9%, 2.3 RV/100, .455 wOBA). The Twins are the fifth best offense in the league against fastballs (0.49 wFB/C), so hopefully he’s smart enough to keep that one in his back pocket, but the Twins also have a 112 wRC+, 22.4 K% and 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP overall. However, Berrio’s recent uptick, along with his $7.7K cost on DraftKings does project him as one of the better values tonight.

Just as volatile, Josiah Gray has at least six strikeouts in eight of his last nine starts with a 29.6 K% and 21.3 K-BB% over this span. Unfortunately, his home run issues continue to rage out of control. He’s allowed 24 of them already (17.9 HR/FB) on 31 barrels (11.5%). While that is a large percentage of his barrels leaving the yard, that’s a large percentage of barrels on contact period. That said, the 5.30 FIP is really the outlier here. The next closest estimator to his 4.59 ERA is a 4.20 xFIP. He allowed two home runs, but struck out 11 in his first trip to Philly this season, just four starts back. There are plenty of challenges here from the park to the weather (which is both hitter friendly and a rain risk) against the Phillies (97 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 13.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but Gray still projects as a top 10 value for $9K or less.

The Cleveland Guardians have a 17.7 K% vs RHP going into Thursday night’s game. What does that have to do with Corey Kluber? He struck out 10 of them in his last start to push his season strikeout rate up to a league average 21.6%. However, a 3.7 BB% is what allows him to so frequently turn less than 90 pitches into six innings. He completed that many (but never more) in 11 of his last 17 starts, including the Cleveland start, where he also allowed four runs, in just 89 pitches. Kluber’s been in a bit of mini-slump (13 runs last 17 innings), but that’s more a BABIP (.375) and strand rate (59.) issue than anything to be worried about. The contact profile has been great as well (6.1 Barrels/BBE, 87.1 mph EV, 20.2 IFFB%). He’s generated six more infield flies than barrels. His 4.03 ERA aligns very well with a 4.02 xERA without any non-FIP estimators more than one-third of a run removed. He has one of the best matchups on the board in Detroit (67 wRC+, 24.6 K%, 7.0 HR/FB vs RHP), but projects as merely a middle of the board value within $300 of $8.5K on either site, in what may be a bit of an oversight, though the risky workload likely has a lot to do with that. This is another spot where his extreme efficiency should win out though.

Patrick Sandoval has an above average strikeout rate (24.2%), but a double digit walk rate too (10.2%). With just four of 17 barrels (6.6%) leaving the yard though. His 3.01 FIP separates itself by around a run from additional estimators. In fact, his FIP and 4.49 xERA bookend those estimators with the remainder a bit above his 3.61 ERA, as a .344 BABIP has balanced out the low home run rate. Sandoval’s ERA has been over five in his last six starts, despite an improvement to his K-BB over this span (17.7%). He’s completed six innings in just one of those starts with his BABIP up to .448. He should be okay if he can keep the walk rate in single digits and projects as a top 10 DK value, where he’s $1.2K less than FD with a park upgrade, but difficult matchup (Mariners 112 wRC+, 23.4 K%, 10.7 BB% vs LHP).

Conditions Are Ripe For This Powerful Lefty

The Milwaukee Brewers top a 26 team Friday night slate at 5.49 implied runs, just a bit ahead of the Phillies (5.32) and Astros (5.06) as the only three teams exceeding five run team totals. However, eight more teams reach four and a half runs or higher currently with another couple right on that cusp. It’s a fairly well balanced board that features a pair of bats from the top two offense among the top 10 projections, though no other offense gets more than a single batter near the top of the board.

Josiah Gray has at least six strikeouts in eight of his last nine starts with a 29.6 K% and 21.3 K-BB% over this span. He may even be worth a shot in GPPs. Unfortunately, his home run issues continue to rage out of control. He’s allowed 24 of them already (17.9 HR/FB) on 31 barrels (11.5%). While that is a large percentage of his barrels leaving the yard, that’s a large percentage of barrels on contact period. That said, the 5.30 FIP is really the outlier here. The next closest estimator to his 4.59 ERA is a 4.20 xFIP. He allowed two home runs, but struck out 11 in his first trip to Philly this season, just four starts back and will have to deal with weather conditions that will likely make the park more hitter and power friendly than it already is. Kyle Schwarber (133 wRC+, .335 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board tonight. LHBs have smoked Gray for a .404 wOBA and .352 xwOBA this year. Gray has had much more success against RHBs (.277 wOBA, .282 xwOBA), but still with a 13.6 HR/FB against them, which is why Rhys Hoskins (113 wRC+, .212 ISO) projects among the top batters tonight as well.

Robert Dugger hasn’t actually started a game for the Reds yet, but has made three long relief appearances, striking out 17 of 52 with three walks and barrels (9.4%). He’s done this with a 15.6 SwStr%. He has just a 16.9 K% (10.0 BB%) over 82.2 career innings and a single digit AAA SwStr% with a sub-20 K% this year. His small sample of work this year has yielded a massive split (LHBs .397 wOBA, .350 xwOBA). Rowdy Tellez (124 wRC+, .274 ISO) and Christian Yelich (121 wRC+, .149 ISO) are both top five projected bats tonight.

This Pitcher Has Thrown His Name in the Cy Young Race

Friday night’s 13 game slate includes just three pitchers hitting the $10K mark, but also three more reaching $9K on both sites, though that latter group may be mostly over-priced. A double digit walk rate has often kept Dylan Cease from pitching deep into games. It’s not a huge improvement, but an 8.5 BB% over his last eight starts, while retaining a 34 K% over this span, has allowed him to produce six Quality Starts. Of course, the 100 LOB% (his only runs allowed have been four solo home runs) won’t sustain, while his 81.5% season rate may have some regression incoming as well, but if he’s striking out one-third of batters faced with a single digit walk rate and sustaining his current contact profile (87.3 mph EV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 31.9% 95+ mph EV), we may have another contender in the Cy Young race. Cease’s slider has been terrific (42%, -3.5 RV/100, 47.2 Whiff%). The Rangers (94 wRC+, 23.4 K%) are bottom third of the league against the pitch (-0.4 wSL/C). Cease is the most expensive pitcher on the board and the second best projected one, also carrying a top five point per dollar value projection on either site. With the roof closed, as it almost always is during the summer, Texas is a negative run environment and park upgrade for Cease. For more on tonight’s most expensive arms, included tonight’s top projected pitcher and value, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Kyle Tucker scratched Thursday.

Kyle Tucker scratched Thursday.

This Stack Dominates Projections in Every Aspect Except Rating

On an eight game slate where the Phillies separate themselves from the rest of the board an paying up for pitching is not a necessity, it makes sense that the Phillies are currently projected to be the most popular stack (though stacking projections are frequently updated and do change throughout the day), but with a couple of other top offenses tonight nipping at their tails. Philadelphia stacks do smash the slate in over 18% of simulations without any other stack reaching 11%. They’re also too cheap on FanDuel, making them the runaway top projected value stack there, while they project very closely and slightly behind the opposing offense (Washington) in terms of projected value on DraftKings. The Phillies are a top rated stack tonight, but you’re going to have to check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out which stacks rate better.

Two Top Offenses With Lots of Projected Value

We can make this easy by suggesting that you don’t necessarily need to pay up for pitching tonight, which makes the need to filter the most value out of your bats less necessary. However, if you do feel like you need Justin Verlander in your lineup, FanDuel makes it a bit easier in that respect as well by posting the top Philadelphia bats too cheaply. Kyle Schwarber (134 wRC+, .339 ISO vs RHP this year), Rhys Hoskings (108 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (84 wRC+, .131 ISO) all double as top projected bats and top projected values on FanDuel. The Phillies have a team run total more than half a run higher than the next best team and Paolo Espino has allowed multiple home runs in four of his last six starts, while RHBs have a .360 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against him this year. All three are $3.5K or less with Castellanos the top projected value on the board for $2.5K.

DraftKings projections believe the Boston lineup is loaded with potential value. They have a 4.79 implied run line in Kansas City. All of sudden, Kris Bubic, who was getting lit up regularly until June, has thrown three straight Quality Starts against the Blue Jays, Rays and Yankees (20 IP – 5 ER). Basically, his strand rate and BABIP have done a complete about face. His 18.6 K% over the last month is the same as his 18.2% rate on the season and he’s still walking batters at a double digit clip and allowing barrels at just under a double digit rate. A 4.69 xFIP is his only estimator more than half a run removed from a 5.45 ERA. His strand rate is up to 67.8% and the BABIP down to .306. RHBs have a .310 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against him this year, while LHBs have been even better (.492 wOBA, .454 xwOBA). Christian Arroyo (82 wRC+, .180 ISO vs LHP this year) is the top projected DraftKings value for just $2K. Yolmer Sanchez and Kevin Plawecki have both done absolutely nothing with the bat in short samples this year, but cost the minimum as well. Jarren Duran (34 wRC+) hasn’t done much more, but bats leadoff for less than $3K. FanDuel projections suggest Bobby Dalbec (109 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Alex Verdugo (92 wRC+) are top values for less than $2.5K as well.

Weather and Homer Prone Pitcher Separates This Offense from the Board

On a 16 team Thursday night slate, the Philadelphia Phillies are the only offense above five implied runs. In fact, they have a 5.51 run team total tonight with temperatures expected to be above 90 degrees with the wind blowing out. While the Phillies separate themselves from the rest of the board by more than half a run, there are four more teams above four and a half runs, separating by nearly half a run from the rest of the board. Kyle Schwarber (134 wRC+, .339 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board. Paolo Espino has now started nine games without missing many bats (17.3 K%), but excellent control (5.2 BB%). More problematically, he’s allowed multiple home runs in four of his last six starts and has allowed 10.5% Barrels/BBE as a starter. He has a 4.95 ERA over this span, even stranding 79.3% of runners. Espino actually has a reverse split. While LHBs have a .291 wOBA, but .320 xwOBA against him, RHBs have been even better (.360 wOBA, .351 xwOBA). That’s why Rhys Hoskins (108 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (84 wRC+, .131 ISO) are also top 10 projected bats tonight. J.T. Realmuto (107 wRC+, .141 ISO) sneaks inside the top 10 on DraftKings, but just misses on FanDuel.

The Houston lineup (4.64) also features a pair of bats projecting among the top five tonight. Zach Plesac’s last four starts have resulted in 17 runs (14 earned) over 18.2 innings, including three home runs on seven barrels (11.5%). It’s really been the contact profile that’s crushed him because his 15.1 K-BB% over this span is a significant improvement over his 11.4% season rate. In fact, his 5.53 xERA on the season is his only estimator more than one-fifth of a run removed from his 4.33 ERA. Plesac’s four-seamer and slider are below average pitches that make up about two-thirds of his arsenal. The Astros are the fourth best fastball hitting team in baseball (0.53 wFB/C) and are top 10 against sliders also. LHBs have absolutely smashed him this year (.361 wOBA, .373 xwOBA). The Houston lineup may only include two of those tonight, but they are Yordan Alvarez (.214 wRC+, .391 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (139 wRC+, .226 ISO).

Players can also find a trio of Rays among the top projected bats tonight. Their 4.84 team run total is second highest on the board in Detroit. Drew Hutchison has struck out just 12.1% of batters (3.6 K-BB%) over seven starts with a 90 mph EV. Even with just three of nine barrels (8.1%) leaving the yard, he has a 4.50 ERA over this span without much disagreement from estimators. Hutchison’s splits are a bit deceptive. LHBs have a .318 wOBA and RHBs a .299 wOBA against him, but RHBs have a .374 xwOBA, while LHBs have a .304 xwOBA. Randy Arozarena (114 wRC+, .170 ISO), Ji-Man Choi (123 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Brandon Lowe (111 wRC+, .168 ISO) project fairly closely together.

Top Projected Pitching Values Appears to be in the Mid-Range Thursday

The first thing worth mentioning is that there aren’t really many great values on the mound. This is not a great pitching slate. In fact, the pitcher currently carrying the top P/$ value projection on FanDuel (and this is certainly subject to change) is Noah Syndergaard in his Philadelphia debut, as they try to reassemble the 2016 Mets rotation. He’s registered a 25.8 K% over his last four starts, pushing his season rate up to 18.9% (12.4 K-BB%), seemingly sacrificing some ground balls (now 44.9%) for strikeouts, though he’s also now allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE over his last 12 starts. He has just one Quality Start in his last six, while season estimators are above, but within half a run of his 3.83 ERA. While the Nationals have a 94 wRC+ and 19.8 K% vs RHP this year, he’s certainly facing something worse than that tonight. However, the temperatures in Philly tonight are projected to be blistering with the wind blowing out. This will not be a pitcher friendly environment for Thor’s debut at all. None the less, he’s less than $8K on either site and is the third best DraftKings projected value as well. Syndergaard is a top four projected overall arm on this board.

Costing a bit less than Syndergaard on either site, Jeffrey Springs has suffered no drop off since moving into the rotation with a 20.4 K-BB% aligning almost perfectly with his 20.6% season rate. However, a .380 BABIP and 18.2 HR/FB over his last five starts has generated 5.32 ERA with six of his eight barrels (10.4%) leaving the yard. While the contact profile is a bit worse, he has an even more impressive 21.3 K-BB% over this span. In other words, as long as you don’t expect six innings (only three times), he should be fine, though season estimators are all more than half a run above his 2.70 ERA (88.6 LOB%). More problematically, the Tigers have a 104 wRC+ with just a 21.9 K% vs LHP and this is the highest weather risk (as in rain) on the slate. However, Springs is the top projected DraftKings value and second best FanDuel one.

In the same price range, Jose Quintana is the third best projecting FanDuel value. He has only completed six innings five times this year, as the Pirates were conservative with his workload. What he has offered though, is a league average 13.4 K-BB% with an 87.1 mph EV. There is a bit of a gap between his FIP (3.23) and xERA (4.17) with just seven of his 23 barrels (7.4%) leaving the yard (7.0 HR/FB). There may be some regression there, but he’s moving to a power suppressing park with a great defense that should help his .307 BABIP too. He also has a favorable matchup in his first St Louis start. The Pirates have a 100 wRC+ vs LHP, but also a 23.8 K%. They also have a 38 wRC+ and 24.6 K-BB% over the last week overall.

Projecting as a strong DraftKings value, Cole Ragan was once an interesting pitching prospect, but two Tommy John surgeries later, that is no longer the case. Ragan’s upside appears to be backend starter with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). He has exceeded a 20 K-BB% at both AA and AAA this year. He’s also allowed 10 home runs in 94.2 innings. With the roof closed, as it generally is during the summer months, Texas is a negative run environment. However, the White Sox have a 120 wRC+ and 21.8 K% vs LHP and with Luis Robert expected back tonight, the lineup finally appears to be whole.