DFS Alerts

Stacking Projections See This Offense Being More Dominant Than Sportsbooks

The most obvious thing about Tuesday night’s 13 game slate is that it seems fairly well distributed and early stacking ownership projections (which are fluid and subject to change) agree without any offense currently projecting in double digits on either site. In fact, on FanDuel, no stack currently projects for even seven percent ownership. However, it seems that stacking projections slightly disagree with the sportsbooks because while the Blue Jays do have the highest team run line tonight (5.07) they don’t separate from the rest of the board nearly as much as they do in early simulations which have Toronto smashing the slate around 15% of the time, almost twice as often as any other offense on either site. We can’t find a clear answer in the Value% column either though, Washington (FanDuel) and Detroit (DraftKings) stacks have small early projection leads. It’s probably no secret that the Blue Jays do rate as a top stack tonight, but which stack currently projects a better rating on one site? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

When Cheap Bats Meet Cheap Pitching: Value on Both Sides

While hitter projections aren’t dominated by any single offense tonight, they do suggest quite a bit of value in the Washington lineup. Justin Steele has struck out 19 of his last 45 batters (Marlins & Nationals) and has struck out at least six in six of his last eight starts. That he’s been able to do this while actually increasing his ground ball rate (51.3%) over this span is quite the accomplishment, though it’s hard to find anything he’s doing differently. He appears to be throwing a few more sliders (30.2%, -1.5 RV/100, 32.8 Whiff%, .165 wOBA, .203 xwOBA), but that’s it. On the season, Steele is up to a 23.7 K% with a 9.6 BB% (one walk or less in four of his last five starts) with 50.7% of his contact on the ground, while allowing just 3.6% Barrels/BBE (86.8 mph EV, 32.3% 95+ mph EV). His 3.63 ERA is within one third of a run of all estimators and he’s suddenly become quite interesting. However, RHBs have been about average against him this year (.308 wOBA, .313 xwOBA) and the entire Washington projected lineup costs $3K or less on FanDuel. Projections believe Victor Robles (119 wRC+ vs LHP), if in the leadoff spot, Lane Thomas (92 wRC+, .172 ISO) and Joey Meneses (.347 wRC+, .600 ISO is an extremely small sample) contain the most value.

We don’t find another offense with multiple top 10 projected values tonight, though Alejandro Kirk (141 wRC+, .158 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value for less than $3K against Dean Kremer (RHBs .354 wOBA .361 xwOBA).

The Detroit Tigers are the only offense with more than a single top 10 projected value bat on DraftKings tonight. Zach Plesac has had some very recent success against the Tigers and is one of the top projected pitching values on the board tonight for less than $8K, but everybody has a price and Detroit hitters appear to have hit theirs on DraftKings, particularly Victor Reyes (90 wRC+ vs RHP this year) and Harold Castro (97 wRC+) at minimum cost ($2K). It is important to note that no batter in the projected lineup for the Tigers reaches a 100 wRC+ or .160 ISO vs RHP this year.

A Reverse Platoon Split Could Mean Trouble Against This Powerful Offense

On a 13 game Tuesday night slate that features a lot of expensive arms facing some of the top offenses in the league and few very positive run environments on the board, only the Toronto Blue Jays exceed a five run team total and barely so (5.07). Six more offense are at four and a half implied runs or higher. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (140 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board with Alejando Kirk (141 wRC+, .158 ISO) just outside the top five. The Toronto Blue Jays are the only offense tonight to feature multiple top 10 projected bats. The Orioles have limited Dean Kremer to less than 90 pitches in each of his last five starts, a conservation effort they’ve begun practicing with all of their young pitchers late in the year. Over his last seven starts, he’s shut out the Angels and Pirates over five and 6.1 innings, but at least three runs in fewer than six innings in each of the other five. With just an 18.5 K%, his only asset has been a 5.7 BB%, though with just six of 17 barrels (8.6%) leaving the yard, all non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.69 ERA. Like Bradish yesterday, Kremer has also exhibited a reverse platoon split that will likely hurt him here. RHBs have a .354 wOBA and .361 xwOBA against him this season. The only drawback is if Kremer only lasts two trips through the lineup, the Baltimore pen has been one of the best in the league (3.09 xFIP, 2.87 SIERA last 30 days).

While Willson Contreras (162 wRC+, .356 ISO vs LHP this year) is the only top of the board projecting Cub, you really have to consider attacking Patrick Corbin with an entirely right-handed projected lineup (.397 wOBA, .391 xwOBA vs Corbin this year). He has failed to strike out a single batter in two of his last three starts (Dodgers & Phillies) and has allowed 31 runs over his last 21.2 innings with seven home runs on 10 barrels (10.9%). Season estimators range from a 4.14 xFIP to a 6.17 xERA. While all are quite a bit lower than his 7.02 ERA (.384 BABIP, 61.7 LOB%, 17.1 HR/FB), none of it is any good. Patrick Wisdom (143 wRC+, .267 ISO), Seiya Suzuki (102 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Ian Happ (144 wRC+, .151 ISO) have shown some life against southpaws as well.

Garrett Hill has a 1.3 K-BB% and 10.5% Barrels/BBE through seven starts. His 4.66 ERA is more than a run below all estimators. Jose Ramirez (159 wRC+, .279 ISO) is the only top projecting Cleveland bat, but Hill has actually been much worse against RHBs (.369 wOBA, .412 xwOBA) than LHBs (.287 wOBA, .334 xwOBA). Oscar Gonzalez (130 wRC+, .167 ISO) has been the top performing Cleveland RHB against RHP.

Paul Goldschmidt (269 wRC+, .383 ISO vs LHP this season) is the only top 10 projecting Cardinal tonight. It’s a firmly negative run environment, but the Cardinals have smashed LHP (125 wRC+, 19.3 K%) and Kyle Freeland has just a 16.4 K%, while allowing 9.1% Barrels/BBE. Forget Coors, that won’t play well in any park. Despite just 13 of 37 barrels leaving the yard, his 4.84 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. RHBs have a .328 wOBA and .325 xwOBA against him. Tyler O’Neill (124 wRC+, .151 ISO) sneaks inside the top 10 on DraftKings, though Nolan Arenado (179 wRC+, .429 ISO), Albert Pujols (183 wRC+, .312 ISO) and Dylan Carlson (153 wRC+ .214 ISO) have smashed LHP too.

Low Priced Pitcher Projecting for Great Value in Top Matchup

While a large Tuesday night slate is headlined by several top arms, most of them appear to be in marginal to difficult spots with the best matchups reserved for marginal pitchers. What’s a daily fantasy player to do? You’re certainly not trusting your single pitcher FanDuel slot to Patrick Corbin and probably not J.P. Sears (17.6 K%) either, though both project very strongly from a point per dollar perspective. Zach Plesac may be a different story. He has a 23.7 K% over his last five starts, but three of those starts have been against Tampa Bay and Detroit (twice), while he just snapped a stretch of five straight starts without completing six innings. While his 18.2 K% (11.3 K-BB%) and 10.4% Barrels/BBE produce estimators ranging from a 4.27 FIP to a 5.21 xERA, he is facing the Tigers (66 wRC+, 25.3 K%, 7.2 HR/FB vs RHP) again here. While Plesac hasn’t had much success with his four-seamer (42.7%, 0.5 RV/100, 15.3 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA above .400), the Tigers are the worst fastball hitting team in the majors (-0.75 wFB/C). With the Cleveland bullpen being heavily worked in Monday’s double-header as well, Plesac could be pushed a bit harder than usual.

Other than Plesac, it’s pretty hard to get away from the top of the board on FanDuel, but there are a few more SP2 options on DraftKings, though Plesac can also serve in that spot for just $7.2K. J.P. Sears at $6.0K is one option. He has failed to come close to reproducing his 33.7 AAA K% (43 IP) though 27.1 major league innings (17.6 K%). That’s not to say he’s pitched poorly though. Sears has walked just five of 102 batters with more popups (eight) than barrels (five) allowed. Estimators widely range from a 2.94 FIP/3.10 xERA to a 4.74 DRA in his small sample of work. Texas is a negative run environment with the roof closed, as it generally is during the summer, and while the Rangers are a dangerous offense against LHP (114 wRC+, 17.1 HR/FB), they also have a 23.4 K% against southpaws.

Justin Steele has struck out 19 of his last 45 batters (Marlins & Nationals) and has struck out at least six in six of his last eight starts. That he’s been able to do this while actually increasing his ground ball rate (51.3%) over this span is quite the accomplishment, though it’s hard to find anything he’s doing differently. He appears to be throwing a few more sliders (30.2%, -1.5 RV/100, 32.8 Whiff%, .165 wOBA, .203 xwOBA), but that’s it. On the season, Steele is up to a 23.7 K% with a 9.6 BB% (one walk or less in four of his last five starts) and 50.7% of his contact on the ground, while allowing just 3.6% Barrels/BBE (86.8 mph EV, 32.3% 95+ mph EV). His 3.63 ERA is within one third of a run of all estimators and he’s suddenly become quite interesting. The Nationals don’t like sliders, by the way (-0.81 wSL/C is third worst in baseball). The reason we like him much more as an SP2 on DraftKings than on FanDuel is because he is $3.5K less on DraftKings.

While Sonny Gray has struck out 22 of his last 84 batters to push his season strikeout rate up to 22.9%, he’s exceeded five innings in only two of his last 10 starts. He’s still managing contact well (5.9% Barrels/BBE) with popups (16.7 IFFB%) replacing the normally high ground ball rate (43.4%), though his 3.33 ERA is below all estimators, ranging from a 3.55 FIP to a 3.88 SIERA. The Royals are more a good run prevention spot than a really high upside one (92 wRC+, 21.9 K%, 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP). Gray would probably be fine for less than $9K if you really needed to save the salary with a decent floor, but just understand that the upside is likely limited.

Tonight's Most Expensive Pitcher Has Generated More Popups Than Barrels

A 13 game Tuesday night slate includes six $10K pitchers on FanDuel (three on DraftKings) with one more reaching $9K on both sites. The loaded pitching board starts with Justin Verlander most expensively on either site. He has produced eight Quality Starts in a row and has completed seven innings in 10 of his 21 starts. The workload is the real value here, as the strikeout rate (25.7%) isn’t elite, but he’s still able to rack up strong game totals by not walking anyone (4.6 BB%) and pitching deep into games. A 19.9 IFFB% and 34.7% 95+ mph EV that have produced more popups (30) than barrels (26) have also helped. All estimators are more than a run above his 1.85 ERA (.233 BABIP, 81.6 LOB%, eight unearned runs), but a 2.90 xERA to a 3.41 xFIP isn’t a bad range either. Verlander is throwing his four-seamer 50.5% of the time (-1.7 RV/100, .266 wOBA). The White Sox are a bottom third of the league offense against fastballs (-0.27 wFB/C), though they don’t strike out a ton vs RHP (20.2% with a 96 wRC+). Verlander projects in an essential tie as the second best arm on the board (though with a different pitcher on each site), though he’ll have to face some hitter friendly conditions (weather and umpire). The high cost places his point per dollar projection merely among the middle of the pack tonight. For much more on all of tonight’s top of the board pitchers, including the highly volatile top projecting arm tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Jeremy Peña scratched Monday.

Jeremy Peña scratched Monday.

Jonathan India scratched Monday.

Jonathan India scratched Monday.

The Surprising Stack That Projects to Smash the Slate Most Often

The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins are tied atop the board at just under five implied runs, so it probably makes some sense that they are essentially projected in a tie to be the most popular stack on DraftKings tonight, while on FanDuel the Twins slightly edge out the Blue Jays as the only stack with double digit projected ownership. The stack that projects to smash the slate most often in early simulations is the Houston Astros, who are currently in a three way tie for the fifth highest team run total at 4.44. Finding a team with a team run total this low atop the Smash% column is a bit of a surprise, though there’s isn’t much separation, between the top four projected offenses tonight (the second of which is actually the Giants). Johnny Cueto has 13 Quality Starts in 15 attempts, including eight straight. He’s done this with an elite walk rate (5.6%), but 16.5 K% and every single estimator more than a run above his 2.91 ERA (81.4 LOB%). The expected regression here is certainly a valid reason for Houston projecting better here than they do for sportsbooks. Cheap RH platoon bats against Madison Bumgarner gives San Francisco stacks the runaway top projected value, as is often the case when they’re facing marginal left-handed pitching. For much more on tonight’s top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Lineup Almost Always Projects Top Values Against LHP

While there are a lot of high upside mid-range arms tonight, they’re almost all also highly volatile arms in dangerous spots as well, which means that you’re probably paying up for pitching tonight and without a single offense above five implied runs, maybe you want to fill out the majority of your lineup with value bats. To start with, the Giants are facing a marginal lefty, which generally means that by rostering some cheap RHBs (with some pinch-hit risk), you can generally do whatever else you want in your lineups. This is especially true on FanDuel, where Austin Slater (138 wRC+, .156 ISO vs LHP this season), Evan Longoria (101 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Brandon Belt (102 wRC+) are all top of the board projected values for $2.6K or less. With just a 16.5 K% on the season and 90.1 mph EV, Madison Bumgarner’s estimators range from a 4.51 FIP to a 5.32 DRA, all more than one-third of a run above his 4.13 ERA (10 of 66 runs unearned). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .327 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. We should also mention that J.D. Davis (126 wRC+, .176 ISO) is in a similar price range and has a 158 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Luis Gonzalez (68 wRC+) is the only top projected DraftKings value in this lineup, costing the minimum, although Davis is also less than $3K.

Each of the top nine projected values on DraftKings cost $2.1K or less. In fact, only one of them (Vinnie Pasquantino) costs even that much. While Pasquantino (117 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Nick Pratto (81 wRC+, .203 ISO) are the only pair of teammates that appear on this list, it doesn’t mean much because they both play the same position, though Pratto has recently gained OF eligibility on DK. LHBs only have a .310 wOBA and .311 xwOBA against Joe Ryan this year, but we’re talking about a pair of decent power bats in an average spot at minimal cost.

If we drop down one more spot, we also find a pair of Cubs among the top 10 projected DraftKings Value. Rafael Ortega (88 wRC+, .119 ISO) costs a lofty $2.8K with Zach McKinstry (48 wRC+) costing the minimum against the very barrel (11.2%) and walk (9.5%) prone Josiah Gray. LHBs have a .388 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against Gray this year. Optimistically for Gray, Ian Happ (114 wRC+, .162 ISO) is the only other LHB in this projected lineup. With Gray holding RHBs to a .310 wOBA (.258 xwOBA), there’s justification for stacking LH Cubs, while using Gray (26.3 K%) in additional lineups.

Large Reverse Platoon Split Could Be Problematic for Tonight's Matchup

On a 10 game slate that doesn’t include Coors, Cincinnati or many very positive run environments at all, not a single offense exceeds five implied runs, though the Blue Jays (4.96) and Twins (4.96) come in just under with the Yankees and Giants also above four and a half run team totals. The result is that we don’t really find PlateIQ batter projections (which are fluid and subject to change) dominated by any particular lineup.

The Twins do project the most top 10 batters tonight (three on DraftKings, two on FanDuel). Kris Bubic still has a 5.02 ERA with all estimators above four and a half, which really illustrates how poorly his season started because over his last five starts, he’s allowed 12 runs (eight earned) over 31.2 innings (2.27 ERA/3.65 FIP/3.96 xFIP) with a 13.3 K-BB%. However, he’s also allowed nine barrels (9.8%) over this span with just three turning into home runs. That’s actually a bit higher than his season rate (9.0% Barrels/BBE, 45.1% 95+ mph EV), though we also have to note that he’s been having his recent success against offenses that have crushed LHP this year (White Sox, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays). He gets another tough one here. Despite their 103 wRC+ and 20.4 K% vs LHP, only three batters in their projected lineup exceed a 99 wRC+ or .131 ISO vs LHP this season, so the books may be over-valuing the Twins here, but if you’re going to stack Twins, be sure to include the three batters the projections like the most: Byron Buxton (171 wRC+, .380 ISO), Carlos Correa (144 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Luis Arraez (90 wRC+), though Jose Miranda (129 wRC+, .256 ISO) has hit LHP well too. RHBs have a .312 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against Bubic this year, while LHBs are above .400, which explains Arraez’s healthy projection.

The Blue Jays are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected bats in their matchup against Kyle Bradish, who’s 14.1 K-BB% is fine. He’s both struck out and walked batters at a near league average pace, but 13 of his 19 barrels (10.2%) have left the yard with a 91.1 mph EV overall. The new dimensions in Baltimore haven’t helped him much, as 10 of those home runs have been surrendered at home. After completing six innings in two of his first three starts, he hasn’t done so in any of his last 10. A 6.42 ERA is more than two runs above contact neutral estimators, but his FIP and xERA exceed five. Incredibly problematic for this matchup, RHBs have torched Bradish (.435 wOBA, .394 xwOBA). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (138 wRC+ .218 ISO vs RHP this season) and Alejandro Kirk (141 wRC+, .158 ISO) are top of both top five projected bats tonight.

Aaron Judge (183 wRC+, .387 ISO vs LHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board against Jalen Beeks and Ryan Yarbrough (RHBs .380 wOBA, .365 xwOBA this season), but is not joined by any other Yankees among the top 10 tonight, though Gleyber Torres (155 wRC+, .320 ISO) and Jose Trevino (195 wRC+, .342 ISO) have hammed LHP as well.

Plenty of Volatile, But High Upside Mid-Range Arms on Monday Night

This is a slate where you’re probably paying up for pitching, as the top pitchers on the board are generally the top projected values as well. There are some exceptions in a couple of lower priced high upside arms, but with those high strikeout rates come some extremely high barrel rates as well. There’s a reason these pitchers cost less than $9K. Yusei Kikuchi has struck out exactly one-quarter of the batters he’s faced and that’s where the good news ends. He’s walked 13.1% with a 22.5 HR/FB that you’d think has to regress, but the contact profile includes a 91.6 mph EV, 47.9% 95+ mph EV and 15.6% Barrels/BBE. He’s allowed 14 home runs on 21 barrels (21.0%) over his last 10 starts. That’s more than a barrel for every five batted balls. The O’s took him deep three times last time out. Despite a predominantly right-handed lineup, the O’s also have just a 93 wRC+ and 24.9 K% vs LHP, resulting in a top of the board value projection for Kikuchi for $7K or less on either site, though he would be mighty difficult to trust on a single pitcher site.

Also projecting as a top five point per dollar value on either site, the main and obvious problem is that 29 of Josiah Gray’s 34 barrels have left the yard. While the good news is that his 18.8 HR/FB should regress, the 11.2% Barrels/BBE is still pretty awful. He can offset some of the damage with a 26.3 K%, but really needs to have a 30% strikeout rate to pitch successfully with that contact profile, especially when you add in a nearly double digit walk rate (9.5%). Gray has completed six innings in less than 40% of his starts with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.93 SIERA to a 4.27 xFIP. The Cubs do have a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with a 23.1 K% vs RHP, but there’s also some rain risk in this game.

Players should probably stick to one of the big three on FanDuel tonight, but along with Kikuchi and Gray, there are a few more interesting sub-$8K SP2 choices on DraftKings. Alex Cobb still has a 4.15 ERA that’s more than a run above estimators ranging from a 2.83 xFIP to a 3.13 DRA, as he struggles to consistently keep runs off the board, due to a .328 BABIP and 61.5 LOB%. His 25.3 K%, 18.2 K-BB%, 61.1 GB% and 4.2% Barrels/BBE look like a top of the rotation star. Cobb does have five Quality Starts in his last seven, but only twice with less than three earned runs. The Diamondbacks have a 93 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP.

Joe Ryan was lit up for six runs over five innings by the Dodgers last time out after being crushed for 10 by the Padres two starts early, while striking out nine of 20 Tigers in between, which all really doesn’t give us much help in trying to figure him out. He had struck out 23 of 66 batters entering that Dodger start, but again, two of those starts were against Detroit. He hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last six starts, five of his 15 home runs and 24 barrels this season came in that start against San Diego. It might be hard to understand how a 23.4 K%, 6.5 BB% and 8.9% Barrels/BBE works out to a 3.49 xERA, but no other estimators below four. A 27.6 GB% may be one reason why. A 3.95 ERA is aligned fairly closely to a 4.09 SIERA. The Royals are similar in scale to the Diamondbacks here (92 wRC+, 21.9 K% vs RHP).

A more sinker heavy Marcus Stroman has a 54.5 GB% in six start back from the IL, while his 16.7 K-BB% over this span aligns perfectly with his season rate. His 90.1 mph EV is actually nearly a mile per hour lower too, so there seems to be no drawbacks to returning to his sinker throwing ways. He has allowed multiple home runs in each of his last two starts and with a 93.2 Z-Contact% and 47% 95+ mph EV, well…that’s why you want more ground balls in the first place. Stroman has only completed six innings in 40% of his starts this year, while a 4.41 xERA is not only his only estimator above a 4.20 ERA, but the only one above four. The Nationals have a 93 wRC+ and 19.7 K% vs RHP, which is probably quite a bit worse since trading Soto and Bell, though they still don’t strike out a ton.

Over his last five starts, Julio Urias has allowed four runs in 33 innings with 31 strikeouts and just two walks. Despite completing seven innings three times in this span, the Dodgers have only let him exceed 91 pitches once and that was a six inning start. It’s rather extreme efficiency that allows Urias to get through six innings on a regular basis (5.0 BB%, 86.6 mph EV, 29.5% 95+ mph EV). The 24.2 K% is more above average that elite. That said, a .240 BABIP and 80.4 LOB% don’t hurt. A 2.79 xERA is the only non-FIP estimator within a run of his 2.49 ERA. Urias throws his curveball (-0.7 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA below .300) 32.9% of the time. It’s a pitch Milwaukee struggles with (-0.42 wCB/C), especially against LHP (87 wRC+, 25.0 K% vs LHP). Urias is a bit of a higher priced arm, but in a better spot than many people might realize.

Carlos Carrasco owns a 23.7 K% that’s above average, but below his career standard, though his 13.5 K% is actually above his career rate. He also now has four Quality Starts with at least six strikeouts in his last five. A 4.06 xERA is the only estimator above his 3.76 ERA. He doesn’t project extremely well for more than $8.5K in a tough spot with a park downgrade, but the Braves (104 wRC+, 16.0 K% vs RHP) also have a 25.4 K% vs RHP this year.

If you’re looking for a pure SP2 punt on DraftKings, Glenn Otto ($5.6K) has struck out 22 of his last 95 batters to push his season rate up to 18.9%, though an 11.8 BB% is certainly a drawback. He’s also allowed a 14.0 HR/FB, but just 12 of 23 barrels (9.5%) have left the yard. His 5.20 ERA sits between estimators ranging from a 4.90 SIERA to a 5.56 xERA. Pushing his strikeout rate up to league average would be a start, but he’ll need a lot more help than that and Oakland (79 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs RHP) might give it to him.

The Pitcher Who Separates Himself from the Board in a High Upside Spot

A 10 game Monday night slate features one-quarter of the board reaching $10K on FanDuel, though just two on DraftKings without anyone else above $9K on both sites. With Gerrit Cole, there’s a great chance you’re going to get at least six innings and seven strikeouts. He’s done that in 15 of his 23 starts this year. When a pitcher has a 26.5 K-BB%, you generally don’t worry too much about the contact profile, but Cole will also occasionally allow some bombs. He’s allowed multiple home runs in four of his last 12 starts and a total of 15 over this span, which only includes 16 barrels (9.1%). With the 16.2 HR/FB, his 3.38 ERA is in line with a 3.25 FIP and not too far ahead of a 3.08 xERA with more contact neutral estimators below three. Cole is in a high upside spot at home against the Rays (100 wRC+, 24.6 K% vs RHP) as the only pitcher exceeding $10K on both sites. He is the top projected pitcher on the board by a quite a large margin. He’s also the top projected value on either site, which will likely also make him the most popular pitcher on the board. For more on a couple of top end Cole pivots, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

MJ Melendez scratched Sunday

MJ Melendez scratched Sunday

Neither Coors Offense Projects to Smash the Slate Most Often

While the two Coors teams do currently project to be the most popular stacks on a 13 game board (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), neither gets to 10% on a board that includes three more teams above five and a half implied runs. The Smash% column is a really interesting one today because neither Coors offense projects to smash the slate most often in early simulations. In fact, while the Dodgers currently smash the board most often as the only stack with a double digit Smash% on DraftKings, the Padres actually smash slightly more often on FanDuel, where non team reaches a double digit projection. Where we do find a dominant stack on both sites is the Value column, where San Francisco stacks currently project for more than twice the value (FanDuel) or even three times (DraftKings) any other team. Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out which stack, not mentioned above, currently projects to be a top rated one.

Projections See a Lot of Value in this Cheap West Coast Lineup

What we’ve seen a lot of this year is that neither DraftKings, nor FanDuel have been pricing up opposing offenses at Coors this year, resulting in many of those batters doubling as top projected bats and values. Though Seth Beer (51 wRC+ vs RHP this year) is the top projected DK value for $2K, you won’t find many Coors bats among the top 10 projected values on either site tonight. Value projects are pretty much dominated by a quality offense facing a below average pitcher in a park that’s played much more neutrally over the last few seasons. The only positive attribute Bryse Wilson adds to the Pittsburgh rotation is a 6.1 BB%. He’s struck out just 15.8% of batters with an average ground ball rate and 91.3 mph EV. That said, while his 5.86 ERA is at least three-tenths of a run above all estimators, they run only as low as a 4.45 xFIP. LHBs have punished him to the tune of a .438 wOBA and .390 xwOBA this season. Although not the same batters, four of the top five projected values on either site are Giants tonight. On FanDuel, LaMonte Wade (132 wRC+, .250 ISO), Brandon Belt (112 wRC+, .174 ISO), Tommy La Stella (93 wRC+. .149 ISO) and Joc Pederson (133 wRC+, .250 ISO) all cost $2.6K or less with Brandon Crawford (82 wRC+) projecting strongly as well in the same price range. On DraftKings, Crawford, La Stella, Luis Gonzalez (120 wRC+, .143 ISO) and Wade all cost $2.6K or less as well with Austin Wynns (69 wRC+) also projecting for strong value for $2K.

While no other pair of teammates project as top of the board DraftKings values, both Yasmani Grandal (145 wRC+, .064 ISO vs LHP this year – almost all his value comes from walking!) and Josh Harrison (90 wRC+, .131 ISO) project as top 10 FanDuel values for $2.1K each against Daniel Norris (RHBs .404 wOBA, .362 xwOBA) and the Detroit bullpen. Yuli Gurriel (83 wRC+, .124 wRC+ vs RHP in 2022) and Chas McCormick (83 wRC+. .145 ISO) also project strongly for $2.4K each against Adam Oller (RHBs .404 wOBA, .346 xwOBA). Despite the small samples, apparently serving up wOBAs above .400 does not lead to much success for pitchers. Who knew?