DFS Alerts
Amed Rosario scratched (illness) Monday
Rosario has reportedly been scratched with an upset stomach, which will now allow Jose Reyes to shift over to SS while Gavin Cecchini will now enter the lineup at 2B and will bat 9th. This doesn’t change the outlook of the Mets offense – Reyes and Smith are still viable one-offs, but Dan Straily isn’t an ideal arm to pick on given the rest of the options on this slate. Straily is a very nice target on multi-SP sites and can be considered in tournaments on single-pitcher sites.
Other tagged players: Gavin Cecchini
PlateIQ confirmed lineups can give a more accurate assessment than team stats at this point in the season
At this point in the season there has been a large build up of statistically significant data, but it’s also possible that some of that data has already become outdated. It’s probably still statistically relevant that teams like the A’s, Brewers and Padres strike out a ton, though considering the turnover in lineups like the Mets and Tigers, it’s difficult to look at team-wide data and come to any meaningful conclusions at this point. The same may even be said of lineups like the Diamondbacks and Phillies, who have each added a game changing bat in the middle of the order late in the summer. The Phillies have an 85 wRC+ vs LHP and the Diamondbacks an 81 wRC+ on the road, but are those really numbers players can trust with Rhys Hoskins and J.D. Martinez in the lineup. This is why it’s probably best for players to utilize the PlateIQ tool after lineups have been confirmed to get a more current snapshot of the situation. We can do that already with the Phillies and see that Hoskins and other recent call ups have brought the Phillies up to a .330 wOBA, .208 ISO and 21 K% for the confirmed lineup that will be facing Clayton Kershaw tonight. Certainly not strong enough to move players off the top pitcher on the board, but probably better than an 85 wRC+ suggests. Considering that Dan Straily has a reverse split (RHBs .342 wOBA, 35.9 Hard%, LHBs .310 ISO, 28.5 Hard%) and the Mets don’t have a single RHB in the confirmed lineup with a wRC+ above 85 or ISO above .160, this could be considered an optimal spot for the pitcher. However, has struck out more than five in just three of his last 15 starts and PlateIQ tells us that this Mets lineup has just a 19.2 K% vs RHP this year (.308 wOBA, .157 ISO), which is lower than any offense against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Clayton Kershaw, Dan Straily
Clayton Kershaw is the top projected pitcher by a mile on a difficult board.
Clayton Kershaw is the top projected pitcher on tonight’s slate by more than 10 points on either site according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. He has no peers on this board with a 30.9 K% that’s a touchdown higher than the next best pitcher (Buck Farmer 24.4%), more than seven points higher than any other pitcher with at least 10 starts (Nick Pivetta 23.5%) and 8.8 points above the next best pitcher with at least 10 starts and a SwStr rate above 9% (Dylan Bundy 22.1%). While he hasn’t dominated in three easy matchups since returning from the DL, he has pitched well in two of the three (six IP with one ER or less and at least six strikeouts) and is in another nice spot in Philadelphia tonight (85 wRC+ vs LHP). While recent performance does not merit the enormous price tag, players are hard pressed to find another pitcher with even a season’s worth of All-Star results on this slate. That doesn’t mean there aren’t additional options. Dylan Bundy has at least eight strikeouts in five of his last six starts with a 34.2 K% (16.3 SwStr%) over that span that tops tonight’s board. A strikeout rate that high takes away some of the concern of a hard hit rate (40.7%) five points above his ground ball rate (35.6%) in those starts. By Statcast, his 88 mph aEV and 8.1% Barrels/BBE are highest on the board and the Red Sox have the lowest team strikeout rate (19.6%) against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing tonight. Patrick Corbin inexplicably got lit up by the same Padres he faces tonight in Arizona two starts back, but bounced back with 6.2 dominant innings (1 ER – 7 K) against the Rockies. Over his last eight starts, including that outing against the Padres, he has an 18.0 K-BB% (25.1 K%) with a 54.3 GB% and 4.2 Hard-Soft%. RHBs have a 55.1 GB%, 26.5 Hard% over this span and he gets a significant park upgrade in San Diego tonight. Jameson Taillon has a 53.7 GB% and 6.8 Hard-Soft% over his last four starts and faces a high strikeout offense (25% on the road and vs RHP) in a park that’s equipped to suppress Milwaukee’s RH power. However, they have some LH power in that lineup too now and Taillon has just 12 strikeouts with four walks over that span.
Other tagged players: Dylan Bundy, Patrick Corbin, Jameson Taillon RHBs have a .415 wOBA (18 HRs) against Nick Pivetta; Yasiel Puig has a .270 ISO vs RHP
Nick Pivetta has generated an extreme reverse platoon split in his rookie season. RHBs have a .415 wOBA and 43.1 Hard% with 18 HRs against him (LHBs .322 wOBA, 29.6 Hard%, five HRs). As suspected, the Dodgers have shrewdly decided to treat him as a left handed pitcher and employed the majority of their lefty mashing lineup tonight, including Austin Barnes (134 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) and Kike Hernandez (40 wRC+ vs RHP since last season), both of whom rarely play against RHP. They’ve even gone so far as to give Corey Seager the night off. Justin Turner (128 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP this year), Yasiel Puig (136 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP), and Chris Taylor (125 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP) are all RHBs who player more regularly against RHP and would appear to project strongly tonight. Puig even finds himself in the cleanup spot tonight. Cody Bellinger (146 wRC+, .345 ISO, 44.6 Hard%, 48 FB% vs RHP) should still garner strong attention because he has been so dominant against RHP in his rookie season.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes, Enrique Hernandez, Nick Pivetta Seven of 10 starters tonight with at least 17 starts have allowed 20 or more HRs this year
Tonight’s slate does not offer very many attractive stacking opportunities, but what it does offer is a lot of HR potential. Several of tonight’s pitchers are either extreme fly ball generators, home run prone or both. Even Clayton Kershaw has allowed 20 HRs this seaon. In fact, among pitchers with at least 17 starts, only Luis Perdomo (17), Jaime Garcia (17) and Jameson Taillon (9) have failed to allow at least 20 HRs. Even among those three, Garcia struggled mightily with HRs in the past and pitches at Yankee Stadium (though his tendency for shorter outings backed by a monster bullpen may steer players away from opposing bats) while Paul Goldschmidt (3 HRs, 19 PAs) and J.D. Martinez (2 HRs, 6 PAs) have hammered Perdomo, a pitcher who generally grounds RHBs (67.8 GB% this year). The profitable approach to this slate may be in HR hunting rather than stacking a particular lineup. RHBs alone have a .415 wOBA and 18 HRs against Nick Pivetta (which may be where one of the better stacking opportunities lies if the Dodgers choose to load up that way). Dan Straily doesn’t allow a ton of particularly hard contact (25% last six starts), but has allowed nine HRs over that span due to a 49.5% fly ball rate. Jharel Cotton has allowed a league average hard contact rate (31%) over his last seven or 18 starts, yet he has allowed 13 and 27 HRs over those two spans. Ervin Santana has allowed 29 HRs in 30 starts, 27 over his last 24 and has a .308 BABIP with a 4.34 ERA and 18 HRs over his last 17. The most interesting hitter on the slate may be Rhys Hoskins (217 wRC+, .643 ISO, 50 Hard%, 59.1 FB%, 40 PAs vs LHP). Sure, the sample is still very small, but he’s done nearly a season’s worth of damage already. Rostering batters facing Kershaw is not usually a recommended practice, but depending upon projected ownership, this could be one of those rare situations where it might be profitable. The aforementioned 20 HRs he’s allowed are a career high by 25% (previous high was 16) with 14 of those being surrendered to RHBs.
Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Jaime Garcia, Luis Perdomo, Jameson Taillon, Dan Straily, Nick Pivetta, Jharel Cotton, Ervin Santana LHBs have a .394 wOBA and 36 Hard% against Matt Harvey this year
Five of 14 teams have an implied run line above 4.8 runs on Monday night. While not loaded with top end arms, there are not a lot of pitchers players would normally attack either. Oakland (5.11) and Miami (5.01) are the only two offense who reach the five run mark and while Buck Farmer has certainly struggled since being recalled (14 runs in 17.2 innings – 16 Ks, 9 BBs), his hard hit rate has been below 25% in three of his four starts, while he struck out seven last time out (his first start with more than three over this span). While he has just a 29.2 GB% against LHBs this year, he’s held them to an 18.8% hard contact rate. RHBs have a .349 wOBA, 35.8 GB% and 35.2 Hard%, which projects well for Khris Davis (135 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP). This Oakland lineup strikes out a ton too though (25.3% on the road, 24.7% vs RHP). It’s perfectly acceptable to lead an all out assault on Matt Harvey tonight though. The Mets have been kind enough to offer him up to the Marlins upon their return home from Irma, the same as they did in Houston on returning home from the destruction caused by his namesake. The majority of the power for the Marlins is right-handed, and those batters are still playable against Harvey (RHBs .328 wOBA, 51.7 GB%, 31.4 Hard%), but LHBs have been a severe area of weakness for him this year (.394 wOBA, 34.7 GB%, 36 Hard%). Hard hit rates above ground ball rates are usually a recipe for disaster when lacking an elite strikeout rate. Justin Bour (130 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP), Giancarlo Stanton (144 wRC+, .326 ISO, 40 FB% vs RHP) and Christian Yelich (123 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP) would appear the top plays here with only Bour below $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Harvey, Buck Farmer, Khris Davis Broncos LT Garett Bolles suffered high ankle sprain Sunday, will miss a couple of weeks
Denver feared he had a broken ankle, so this is a better diagnosis than originally anticipated. He’s expected to miss a couple of games as he rehabs the injury, which is bad news for the Broncos. Backup tackle Donald Stephenson will likely start in his place and he’s posted nothing but poor grades since entering the league in 2012. Last year, he scored an abysmal 31 across 12 starts, per PFF. Bolles had been off to a solid start in his rookie season, checking in as PFF’s 24th-best tackle in run blocking out of 66 qualifiers and 36th in pass blocking. Quarterback Trevor Simien’s blindside will be very vulnerable against the Bills as left guard Max Garcia has earned a 40.9 pass blocking grade, which is 52nd among 67 qualifying guards. Buffalo’s right defensive end, Jerry Hughes, has already picked up two sacks this season and he checks in as PFF’s 20th-best edge defender out of 88 qualifiers. On top of that, their right defensive tackle, Kyle Williams, has earned PFF’s 16th-best run defense grade out of 105 qualifying interior defenders. As a team, they’ve limited opposing running backs to 2.7 yards per carry, the fourth-best rate in the league. It looks like a tough spot for C.J. Anderson.
As reported by: Mike Klis Other tagged players: C.J. Anderson, Trevor Siemian
Jabari Blash scratched Sunday; Allen Cordoba replaces and will bat eighth
Blash has officially been scratched from the San Diego Padres lineup for today’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Allen Cordoba, who will take over the right field duties defensively and bat eighth. This lineup change will bump Erick Aybar and Matthew Szczur each up one spot in the order to sixth and seventh respectively. However, the remainder of the Padres previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: the San Diego Padres via Twitter Other tagged players: Allen Cordoba
Several games with rain potential headline Sunday's MLB weather forecast
It’s a relatively busy afternoon across Major League Baseball in terms of potential weather threats for Sunday’s slate of games, as five games have received a risk designation of YELLOW due to the possibility of a rain delay. On the bright side, it seems highly unlikely that any contest is in danger being postponed this afternoon, so batters from every team will remain firmly in play depending on matchup. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page The Royals own the lowest implied team total (2.9) on Sunday's slate
To say that Corey Kluber has been pitching well this season would be a massive understatement, as the Cleveland Indians’ ace has recorded double-digit strikeouts in all but SIX of his starts dating back to the beginning of June while allowing three earned runs or more on just four occasions in that time span. That is just an incredible stretch of outings for any starting pitcher but even more impressive considering Kluber was activated off of the disabled list right before the start of the aforementioned time period. Across those 20 starts, Kluber has struck out 37.1% of the batters he has faced while issuing free passes at just a 3.9% clip and surrendering hard contact only 25.2% of the time. With those type of numbers, it wouldn’t really matter who Kluber was facing today, he would still be in play for any format, but amazingly, he receives the privilege of taking on a weak Kansas City Royals lineup that strikes out at a 19.4% clip versus right-handed pitching, good enough for fifth-best in the big leagues. Despite a higher rate of contact than the average offense, this Royals squad remains extremely unlikely to take Kluber deep considering they rank 24th in ISO (.161) while also residing in the bottom-third of the league in wRC+ (93) and wOBA (.316). So, clearly, Kluber is essentially a must play in every format given his upside in this particular matchup and remarkable consistency over the last three-plus months. Meaning, without a doubt, if playing one of Sunday’s main slate, Kluber should be the anchor in your starting pitcher slot in nearly, if not, every lineup across the industry.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Several games with low threats of rain highlight Saturday's MLB weather forecast
The weather forecast for Saturday’s abbreviated 7-game main slate is relatively non-threatening, but there still are several games with a possibility of rain showers. Whether this rain is likely to cause a delay is a better question as Kevin Roth only has one game’s risk classified as YELLOW or worse currently. This situation presents itself to us in the matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins at Target Field where a delay or a late start cannot be entirely ruled out. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Jacob deGrom leads Saturday's main slate with a 28.4% K% and 13.3% SwStr%
deGrom will take the mound tonight on the road against the Atlanta Braves aiming to build off of a solid start his last time out against the Cincinnati Reds, allowing just two earned runs in six innings pitched while striking out 10 batters in the process. For the most part, deGrom has looked like his old self throughout this entire season, but more specifically in the strikeout department. In his first two seasons in the Majors, he notched a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate in 2014 followed by a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strike rate two years ago, meaning that he has seemingly reverted back to the consistent strikeout pitcher this season that he had been in the early stages of his career. These statistics just further suggest that last year’s dip in strikeouts was likely the anomaly of the sample set considering deGrom’s 28.4% strikeout rate and 13.3% swinging strike rate through 29 starts would both set new career-highs and are at least somewhat within the range of his 2015 numbers. Additionally, he’ll receive the benefit of drawing an above-average matchup against a Braves squad that ranks 26th in wRC+ (90), 23rd in wOBA (.314), and 28th in ISO (.150) versus right-handed pitching. The Braves do strike out at a 19.4% clip, meaning that this matchup is not necessarily a huge downgrade from a strikeout perspective for deGrom either, even though the Braves do own a below-average strikeout rate. Despite the slight strikeout cap, deGrom has an elite enough pitching profile to combat Atlanta’s big-time bats that he should be able to neutralize some, if not, all of their power and on-base ability and work his way through to a great outing. On top of that, deGrom arguably still possesses one of the highest upsides among starting pitching options on Saturday’s main slate, even at his high price point. This definitely does look to be one of those situations where the reward still outweighs the risk in cash games and tournaments and deGrom remains one of the pitchers with the highest likelihood to post a tournament winning score across the industry this evening.
As reported by: FanGraphs Dallas Keuchel has a -0.8% Hard-Soft% and 67.8% GB% in his last six starts
Keuchel has been relatively inconsistent following his activation from the disabled list towards the end of July, as he has allowed three or more earned runs in five of his last nine outings. Though the strikeouts have been sporadic of late, he did manage to punch out five batters in 7.2 innings pitched against this same Seattle Mariners squad just two short starts ago. Other than this recent stretch, Keuchel has essentially pitched like his former Cy Young self this season, sporting a respectable 3.03 ERA and a 3.77 SIERA, which is only slightly higher than his career 3.54 SIERA through six Major League seasons. Even though there is a sizable gap between Keuchel’s ERA and SIERA (typically a cause for concern), it’s important to note that hard-hit numbers are not factored into SIERA, which explains why his ERA can be expected to remain substantially lower if he is able to maintain anywhere near a 23.9% hard-hit rate. This afternoon, Keuchel will face a subpar Mariners offense that ranks 21st in wOBA (.313), and 21st in ISO (.154) versus left-handed pitching, despite a solid 19.7% strikeout rate, relegating them firmly to the status of a bottom-tier offense in Major League Baseball against southpaws. So, clearly, safety and upside are present for Keuchel in this matchup, and even if Keuchel allows a home run or two, which seems like more of an issue than it really is given his unsustainable 20.0% HR/FB rate, he should still be able to post a strong outing. On top of that, his fantastic 65.8% groundball rate enables him to limit potential damage and pitch deeper into games, effectively raising his floor and ceiling, and places him firmly in line as a top starting pitching option on Saturday’s early slate, above pitchers like Rich Hill and possibly even Carlos Carrasco due to their start-to-start volatility. Meaning, Keuchel can be a primary target for our lineups in cash games and can’t be ruled out for tournaments either, though he would likely need to pitch nearly a complete game to realize the type of upside Carrasco could provide in his respective matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs J.D. Martinez scratched Friday; Gregor Blanco replaces and will bat second
Martinez has officially been scratched from the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup for tonight’s game against the San Francisco Giants due to neck stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Gregor Blanco, who will take over the left field duties and bat second. This lineup change will slide Ketel Marte all the way down to the sixth spot from his original position second, while Daniel Descalso will move up one spot to fifth in the batting order as well. However, the remainder of the Diamondbacks previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: the Arizona Diamondbacks via Twitter Other tagged players: Gregor Blanco Chris Sale could be twice as popular as the next highest owned pitcher tonight
The Rockies and Yankees bats one would expect to be most popular tonight (Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez) along with Mike Trout are the only ones projected to reach 15% ownership currently. The reason for this is that Chris Sale is expected to be twice as popular as any other arm tonight and he costs a bundle of fantasy dollars. Charlie Morton could be the SP2 of choice on DraftKings, but even he costs $8.1K. Not a single pitcher on FanDuel below $10K is projected to be in more than 10% of lineups. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Charlie Morton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story