DFS Alerts
No serious weather concerns on Friday night
On a complicated slate, players should be thankful for a pleasant forecast from Kevin on Friday night not adding to the difficulty. Kevin mentions a few games with some activity in the area, but nothing worth considering a player fade for weather purposes. It doesn’t get any worse than GREEN/YELLOW tonight. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and Kevin will be in RotoGrinders Premium Chat if from 6-7pm if anything needs to be updated.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Nolan Arenado is the top projected batters tonight, but three Cleveland Indians inside top 10
Nolan Arenado is the top projected player, which is not a surprise at all when he’s facing a left-handed pitcher at Coors, but that it’s by more than a point and a half on either site according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections is eye opening. Arenado has a 222 wRC+ and .444 ISO vs LHP this year, while RHBs have a .372 wOBA and 36.7 Hard% against Clayton Richard this year, though he does have a 63.9 GB% against them over his last nine starts. Ian Desmond also appears among the top 10 projections, but it’s Cleveland that floods the top of the board with three batters (Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion and Francisco Lindor) inside the top 10. They face Jason Vargas, who has just one more strikeout (seven) than HR (six) over his last four starts. Since the start of July, he has a 41.3 Hard%. RHBs have 15 HR of 16 HRs allowed, but either side has a wOBA above .400 with a hard hit rate above 40%. Those paying up for pitching should note that Justin Smoak (4.37 Pt/$/K) is just $2.9K on FanDuel against Bartolo Colon, while both Gregory Polanco (4 Pt/$/K) and Josh Bell (3.96 Pt/$/K) are below $3K against Homer Bailey. On DraftKings, Kendrys Morales (2.83 Pt/$/K) is just $3.6K, while Desmond (2.81 Pt/$/K) and Jonathan Lucroy (2.65 Pt/$/K) are both well below $4K as well.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Ian Desmond, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Kendrys Morales, Jonathan Lucroy Potential Contrarian View: Attack Alex Wood (RHBs .349 wOBA, 40.7 Hard% last eight starts)
Alex Wood has at least momentarily halted the velocity drop since getting a two weak break at the end of August, but the returning results have remained far from strong (11 IP – 15 H – 9 ER – 3 HR – 6 BB – 9 K – 54 BF). There has been some concern about his arm slot dropping as well last month according to an article on Fangraphs. Though he did reach 190 innings in 2014 & 2015, he had initially gained two miles per hour on his fastball earlier in the season. Fatigue may have set in around the All-Star break. Since the start of July (10 starts), he’s sitting on a 44 GB% and league average 31.1 Hard%. Over his last eight starts, RHBs (159 BF) have a .349 wOBA with 8 HRs, a 18.9 K%, 42.6 GB% and 40.7%. While recent outings are probably enough to scare many daily fantasy players off of Wood, the most likely move is to just avoid this matchup altogether. While Trea Turner strangely has a just a career 71 wRC+ and .077 ISO against southpaws, the rest of the projected lineup registers some very strong right-handed bats. There may be an advantage in attacking Wood tonight with the likes of Howie Kendrick (144 wRC+, .213 ISO vs LHP), Ryan Zimmerman (153 wRC+, .316 ISO vs LHP), Jayson Werth (160 wRC+, .268 ISO vs LHP since last season), Anthony Rendon (182 wRC+, .319 ISO vs LHP) and Michael Taylor (126 wRC+, .211 ISO vs LHP). The Nationals are projected for just 4.27 runs tonight, easily on the bottom third of the board, which should suggest favorable ownership rates.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Alex Wood, Howie Kendrick, Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Michael A. Taylor, Trea Turner Robbie Ray has struck out 45 of 97 batters since returning from the DL
Chris Sale may feel his Cy Young slipping away, but is still the top projected pitcher on the board (RotoGrinders Player Projections) by a decent margin tonight. He followed up three HRs and six strikeouts against the Yankees with six shutout innings and eight strikeouts against the Rays. It’s the Rays again tonight and they whiff a ton (26% at home and vs LHP, 29.8% over the last seven days). Has “just” a 31.1 K% and 12.6 SwStr% over his last four starts, but has above 13% in three of the four though. Luis Severino has a 33 K% (13 SwStr%) over his last nine starts, while maintaining his ground ball rate around 50% with a hard hit rate below 30%. Striking out one-third of batters faced is one way to solve a HR problems inherent in Yankee Stadium. Baltimore has a 24.0 K-BB% over the last week. Robbie Ray has double digit strikeouts in three straight starts. He has struck out 45 of 97 batters since returning from taking a liner off his head, while walking just six. His SwStr rate has exceeded 18% in three of those four starts, though his hard hit rate has been at 40% or higher in three of the four as well. Strike out half the batters you face though, and the rest doesn’t matter. San Francisco presents slightly less potential for his strikeout rate (19% at home and vs LHP), but an enormous upgrade form a contact management aspect (6.6 HR/FB, 4.5 Hard-Soft% at home). Those are the high end pitchers tonight. Charlie Morton has not exceeded five innings in any of his last three starts, but has struck out 17 of his last 46 batters and has been over 100 pitches in each of his last two. Since returning from the DL, he’s dropped a mile per hour on his heater, but has maintained his 50 GB%, 27 K% and 11 SwStr%. He’s also greatly improved his contact authority (-4.4 Hard-Soft% in 11 starts). While RHBs have a .364 wOBA against him over this span (155 BF), he’s allowed just two HRs to them with an 11.6 K-BB%, 51.9 GB%, 15.4 LD%, -7.7 Hard-Soft% and .372 BABIP. F-L-U-K-E!! Seattle has a 37.9% hard hit rate over the last week, which includes a series in Texas. Jeff Samardzija has allowed only eight of his 28 HRs at home (two to RHBs with a -2.0 Hard-Soft%) and Arizona has an 82 wRC+ with a 24.3 K% on the road. Mark Leiter might be your low end starter tonight, especially with Khris Davis being replaced by a pitcher in the lineup tonight. He has faced at least 15 batters in seven straight appearances (first two were relief). He’s struck out more than 20% of batters faced in five of them, but has allowed multiple HRs in three of the last five.
Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Jeff Samardzija, Mark Leiter Jr. James Paxton among several starters expected to be dealing with lightened workloads
Much like Felix Hernandez yesterday, James Paxton returns from the DL for the Mariners tonight off of a long layoff and is only expected to throw 50 pitches tonight. With the minor league season having ended, he was unable to throw a rehab start, which essentially takes a top arm off the board for daily fantasy players tonight. He’s unlikely to be the only starter likely to be working under a pitch limit well below 100 tonight either. Matt Andriese has not exceeded 74 pitches in three outings since returning from the DL. Bud Norris has been a single inning reliever all season. His season high is 41 pitches, set in April. Jeremy Jeffress gets his first major league start. He’s hit the 40 pitch mark a few times this season, but never as many as 50. RotoGrinders Research Tools covers relievers on both a team wide and individual basis, information that’s likely to be very useful for tonight’s slate.
As reported by: Ryan Divish Other tagged players: Matt Andriese, Bud Norris, Jeremy Jeffress J.D. Martinez (327 wRC+, five HRs) and Rhys Hoskins (320 wRC+, six HRs) are the hottest bats in the majors
J.D. Martinez (327 wRC+, 54.6 Hard%, five HRs) and Rhys Hoskins (320 wRC+, 53.3 Hard%, six HRs) are the hottest bats in the majors over the last week (10 PA min.). They are one/two via wRC+ and HRs over that span. Both have been residents near this end of the board for the last month and a half or so. Hoskins certainly has the better matchup at home against Daniel Mengden (RHBs .358 wOBA career), Martinez is certainly almost never a bad play at this point. Jeff Samardzija has been tough on RHBs at home though, allowing just two of his 28 HRs with a 23.6 K-BB% and -2.0 Hard-Soft% this year in that situation. Lane Adams (315 wRC+, 60 Hard%, one HR) is also above a 300 wRC+ over the last week in 15 PAs, striking out just once. Adeiny Hechavarria (159 wRC+, 86.7 Hard%, one HR) has apparently made hard contact at a higher rate than any other batter over the last week, which may be difficult to accept. Believe it or not, he has a healthy 110 wRC+ and .194 ISO vs LHP this year. Chris Sale has allowed multiple HRs five of his last 15 starts. Convincing enough? Unlikely. Clint Frazier (69 wRC+, 83.3 Hard%, no HRs) is the only other batter above 70% and just hits the 10 PA cutoff. The obvious issue is that he’s either struck out or walk in four of those opportunities.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Lane Adams, Adeiny Hechavarria, Clint Frazier Rookies, disabled list returns and general attrition makes Friday a difficult slate to navigate
Between pitchers returning from the disabled list, rookie starters and rotations generally battling late season attrition, Friday’s slate is going to be a difficult one to navigate and it doesn’t necessarily help that the two teams playing at Coors are the Padres and…well…the Rockies, both facing pronounced ground ball pitchers with league average strikeout potential. That’s not to say it’s not going to be profitable. In fact, with the influx of returning and new daily fantasy football players, who may dabble with their winnings or attempt to make up for losses, the last few weeks of the baseball season can be one of the most profitable times of year for the astute MLB player. Eight of 28 teams are projected above five runs by Vegas, the Rockies (6.64), nearly a full run ahead of the Yankees (5.72), who are second best by over one-third of a run themselves. Four more teams have an implied run line above 4.8 runs. Clayton Richard has a 20.3 K% (9.4 SwStr%) over his last nine starts with a 63.5 GB%, but 37.2 Hard%. He has struck out 22 of 58 LHBs without a walk and 61.8 GB%, so even though Charlie Blackmon hits LHP extremely well (130 wRC+, .223 ISO this year), perhaps he’s not entirely worth paying up for tonight. RHBs have a .335 wOBA, 6 HRs, 6.2 K-BB%, 63.9 GB% and 37.9% Hard. Again, the ground ball rate is not ideal, but the rest of it can be worked with at Coors. Nolan Arenado (222 wRC+, .444 ISO, 37 Hard%, 47.1 FB%) is likely at the top of everyone’s wish list for good reason tonight. Trevor Story’s success against LHP (174 wRC+, .416 ISO, 51.4 Hard%, 48.6 FB%) perhaps not as well publicized considering his overall struggles and he also left yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury. DJ LeMahieu (140 wRC+, .189 ISO vs LHP) is the other top bat in this lineup. The Yankees are facing one of tonight’s rookies, Gabriel Ynoa, who was the seventh ranked prospect with just a 40 FV grade by Fangraphs in a poor Baltimore system prior to the season. He had just a 15.3 K% in 21 AAA starts this season, though he doesn’t walk many. He did not fare well in a start against Cleveland last week, but who has recently. He’s faced more than 80, but fewer than 100 batters from each side in his short career. The pertinent stats are league average peripherals against either side, but a .366 wOBA vs LHBs. However, his hard hit rate is nearly 10 points higher against RHBs (39.7%) with a four point lower ground ball rate (38.1%). It’s the Aaron Judge (165 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP) and Gary Sanchez (133 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP) show again with Brett Gardner (121 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP) looking strong out of the leadoff spot as well.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Gabriel Ynoa, Clayton Richard Start of Braves @ Nationals to be delayed
The start of the game between the Braves and Nationals in Washington will be delayed due to rain. Kevin had the game at YELLOW in his evening forecast and is in RotoGrinders Premium Chat giving updates right now until 7pm: https://rotogrinders.com/pages/expert-chat?q=true
As reported by: Mark Zuckerman Both teams in Texas increase their implied run line significantly this afternoon
Between lineup omissions and pitch counts, there has been significant run line movement for several teams since this afternoon. With Felix Hernandez expected to be limited to just 50 pitches (not necessarily new news), the Texas Rangers have climbed all the way to second on the board at 5.57 implied runs, up a full half-run (0.51) since earlier this afternoon. The Seattle Mariners have jumped from 4.94 to 5.43 runs as well. Kevin notes that it is warm, “good hitting weather” in his evening forecast. The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals both submitted lineups absent the normal middle of the order with several All-Star quality bats on the bench tonight. Both teams’ run lines have dropped: Miami from 4.94 to 4.31 and Washington a bit less, from 4.84 to 4.58. Lastly, the Atlanta Braves have made a sizable move from 3.66 runs to 3.92 over the course of the afternoon as well without an obvious reason against Tanner Roark. Players can see run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Russell Martin scratched Thursday; Raffy Lopez will catch and bat 9th
Russell Martin scratched Thursday; Raffy Lopez will catch and bat 9th. Lopez does have a 129 wRC+ and .300 ISO in limited opportunities against RHP. Berrios has been the top contact manager on the board though, with a slate low 85.3 mph aEV (28.7% 95+ mph EV).
As reported by: Hazel Mae Other tagged players: Raffy Lopez
Gary Sanchez expected to be the most popular batter on the board.
Gary Sanchez is expected to be the most popular hitter on either site and the only one currently projected to reach 20% ownership. Only a few other hitters on either site are even projected to be above 15% at this point. FanDuel players shouldn’t have too much trouble affording their favorite bats tonight without a pitcher more expensive than $9K on the slate. That said, the two pitchers expected to be most popular, Masahiro Tanaka and Brad Peacock, are at the top of the board, costing around $10K each on DraftKings. In fact, the five highest projected ownership rates go to pitchers costing at least $9K on DraftKings. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka, Brad Peacock A few spots with some delay potential on Thursday night
Kevin’s latest forecast has three games a straight YELLOW tonight. The unfortunate news is that they cover a few of tonight’s usable pitchers. There’s some uncertainty in the Atlanta Washington game, which is not great news for Tanner Roark or Michael Foltynewicz, who may have become a pitcher of interest when Dusty Baker submitted a lineup absent the entire usual middle of his lineup. Baltimore New York (AL) has a chance of seeing a delay as well, which is not great news for Masahiro Tanaka, especially considering the strength of the Yankee bullpen along with his previous injury history. Miami @ Philadelphia is the third game that gets a YELLOW, but there should be little, if any, interest in those pitchers, though the Marlins are missing the middle of their lineup too tonight. The good news is that Kevin expects the most likely outcomes in all of these spots to be either no delay or a short one in each case. With the relative scarcity of pitching options on this eight game slate, it doesn’t seem enough of a threat to fade anyone in any of these spots yet, but be sure to catch Kevin in RotoGrinders Premium Chat between 6-7pm for important updates. Players can also read the full report on the Weather page.
Jose Berrios has been the best contact manager on the slate (85.2 mph aEV, 28.7% 95+ mph EV)
While it’s difficult to find strong daily fantasy pitching on tonight’s slate, there are a few strong contact managers taking the mound tonight. Unfortunately, those two things don’t always correlate. With Jose Urena’s scratch, Jose Berrios now has the lowest average exit velocity on the slate (85.3 mph). No other pitcher is even below 86 mph. Andrew Cashner (3.4%) and Berrios (4.6%) are the only pitchers allowing barrels on fewer than five percent of batted balls. Brad Peacock (27.9%) and Berrios (28.7%) are the only two below 30% 95+ mph EV. Take this to mean that Jose Berrios has been the best contact manager on the slate, but also be cautious of attacking Andrew Cashner (86.4 mph aEV, 31.5%). This is not to say that he’s completely earned an ERA (3.19) more than two runs below his SIERA (5.39), but players who have foolishly spent all season leading all out assaults on him have likely lost a lot of money. The Mariners do have a 5.19 implied run line in one of the more positive run environments in the league though. Calculated exposure to Seattle bats may still be warranted though, considering their potency against RHP this year. Nelson Cruz (143 wRC+, .266 ISO), Robinson Cano (139 wRC+, .217 ISO) have both been effective and have a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. Mitch Haniger (130 wRC+, .190 ISO) and Mike Zunino (114 wRC+, .241 ISO) both add a wRC+ at or above 280 with a 45% hard hit rate over the last seven days. On the other end of the spectrum, Ricky Nolasco has a board high 89.8 mph aEV with a 9.3% Barrels/BBE (third) and 40.6% 95+ mph EV (second). He’s allowed 34 HRs, second most in the majors, 22 of them to RHBs, who have a .393 wOBA and 40.3 Hard% against him this year. Brett Anderson has the highest rate of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity (46%) with the second highest aEV (88.9 mph) on the board.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner, Brad Peacock, Ricky Nolasco, Brett Anderson Pair of Twins (Dozier, Buxton) among top five overall projections against Brett Anderson
The top five overall projected hitters via the RotoGrinders Player Projections are the same on both sites tonight with Brian Dozier (169 wRC+, .295 ISO vs LHP) on top against Brett Anderson, who has just a 46.3 GB% this year and a 51.8 Hard%. His 46% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board. RHBs have a .362 wOBA and 37.3 Hard% against him this year. He’s joined by Byron Buxton (121 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP), who also cracks the top five tonight, a possible first for him. Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) against Seth Lugo (LHBs .325 wOBA, 35.9 Hard%), Rhys Hoskins (191 wRC+, .407 ISO vs RHP) against Vance Worley now (RHBs .400 wOBA, 33.6 Hard%), and Jose Altuve (163 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP) against Ricky Nolasco (RHBs .393 wOBA, 40.3 Hard%) are the remaining top five projected bats tonight. The Cleveland Indians find three bats (Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez) among the next six against Jakob Junis. Without much in the way of expensive pitching tonight, players should have a bit more roster flexibility than normal, but Buxton doubles as a top value on FanDuel (3.66 Pt/$/K), along with Lonnie Chisenhall (3.71 Pt/$/K). He also projects strongly on a point per dollar basis on DraftKings (2.33 Pt/$/K), along with Nick Williams (2.5 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Byron Buxton, Anthony Rizzo, Rhys Hoskins, Jose Altuve, Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall, Nick Williams Brad Peacock is the only pitcher above a 25 K% on Thursday night's slate.
Good pitching is going to be hard to come by on Thursday night. Brad Peacock (31.3 K%) is the only pitcher above a 25% strikeout rate and has eight or more strikeouts in four of his last five, but has only completed six innings once. He has cut his walk rate to 6.4% since the break, which is a great sign, while his 27.9% 95+ mph EV is lowest on the board for the season with a 2.5 Hard-Soft%. One of the top spots on the board against a cold Angels’ offense (20.1 K-BB%, 25 Hard% last seven days) in a pitcher’s park. Masahiro Tanaka has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (24.6%) with the obvious HR issues (30 in 27 starts). Unfortunately, he’s struck out four or fewer in three of his last five starts and is coming off a seven run outing, but that was in Texas and he may have the top matchup on the board hosting an ice cold Baltimore offense, who have a 17.3 K-BB% on the road and 23.8 K-BB% with a 9.3 HR/FB over the last week. It drops off from there, but Tanner Roark has a 29.0 K-BB% over his last four starts and while a 10.2 SwStr% doesn’t come close to supporting a 32% strikeout rate, it’s still a significant upgrade on a difficult board. He has just a 3.1 H-S% over that span as well, even though he’s managed to allow four HRs. Atlanta does not strike out much and has just a 4.5 K-BB% over the last week, but also just a 26.2 Hard% over that span. Jose Berrios struck out just one Royal in seven innings last time out and can’t entirely support the 34 strikeouts over the four preceding starts with his 10.7 SwStr%. Prior to that, he hadn’t struck out more than six since June. He has managed contact well. His 85.3 mph aEV, 4.6% Barrels/BBE and 28.7% 95+ mph EV are all second best on the board. The Blue Jays (89 wRC+ on the road, 90 wRC+ vs RHP) are far from the worst matchup on the board at this point. Mike Foltynewicz struggles so much against LHBs (.375 wOBA), that he wasn’t originally a pitcher of interest until the Washington lineup was confirmed just a little while ago. This rag tag collection has a combined .307 wOBA and .160 ISO vs RHP this year according to PlateIQ with a 25.2 K%. Adam Lind (119 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP) is the lone LHB of concern in this lineup. Foltynewicz has a 15.0 K-BB% and 23.1 Hard% vs RHBs.
Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka, Jose Berrios, Tanner Roark, Mike Foltynewicz, Adam Lind