DFS Alerts
Vance Worley will start for Miami tonight instead of Jose Urena
Vance Worley will start for Miami tonight in Philadelphia with Jose Urena, who is bumped back to tomorrow. This is an upgrade to Phillies hitters, especially Rhys Hoskins (191 wRC+, .407 ISO vs RHP), who leads the majors with five HRs over the last week. RHBs (144 BF) have a .400 wOBA and 33.6 Hard% against Worley this year and a .337 wOBA for his career.
As reported by: Tim Healey Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Jose Urena
Francisco Lindor is the hottest bat on the slate (.322 wRC+, four HRs last seven days)
Francisco Lindor (322 wRC+, 40.7 Hard%, four HRs) is the hottest batter on the slate on the hottest team according to his wRC+ (10 PA min.) over the last week. Kansas City visits tonight and Jakob Junis hasn’t been bad, but LHBs do have a .345 wOBA and 35 Hard% against him. Lindor is expected to be a popular play at SS tonight. Albert Almora (303 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%, two HRs) just meets minimum requirements and drove in six off the bench last night. He’s unlikely to start tonight with just a 68 wRC+ and .125 ISO vs RHP this year. Michael Taylor (301 wRC+, 467 Hard%, two HRs) has been on this list all week. Mike Foltynewicz has some extreme splits, which include smothering RH contact (.309 wOBA, 23.1 Hard%). Robinson Cano (235 wRC+, 70 Hard%, one HR) has made hard contact the most often over the last week. He faces Andrew Cashner in Texas in what sounds like a great matchup, but Cashner has made great strides against LHBs this season (.301 wOBA, 28.6 Hard%), but still has a well below average ground ball rate against them (36.9%) in a dangerous park. Rhys Hoskins (246 wRC+, 43.8 Hard%, five HRs) has sole leadership of the slate and league lead in HRs over the last week. Jose Urena has been able to handle RHBs relatively well this season (.301 wRC+, 50.5 GB%, 29.7 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Albert Almora, Michael A. Taylor, Rhys Hoskins, Robinson Cano Felix Hernandez likely to be limited to 50 pitches tonight
As of a few days ago, the plan has been for Felix Hernandez to throw 50 pitches in his return from the DL tonight with Andrew Albers to follow. Hernandez hasn’t pitched in a month and a half due to a shoulder issue. Unable to pitch in rehab games because the minor league season is over, tonight is essentially his rehab start, not that Texas is a particularly favorable spot for him either way. Hernandez’s 10.4% Barrels/BBE is the highest on the slate, despite a hard hit rate and wOBA below the league average against batters from either side. He’s kept RHBs grounded on 57.8% of batted balls, 20.9 points higher than against LHBs. Albers has pitched just 27 major league innings this year, with a 17.2 K%, 36 GB% and 5.7 Hard-Soft%. He had a 19.6 K-BB% in 120.2 IP at AAA this season (17 starts, nine relief appearances).
As reported by: Ryan Divish Other tagged players: Andrew Albers The Cubs top an eight game Thursday night slate with a 5.82 implied run line against Seth Lugo
It’s a pitching deficient eight game slate on Thursday night with 10 of 16 teams currently implied between 4.8 and 5.8 runs with nobody below 3.66 at this moment. The Chicago Cubs have thrashed the Mets each of the last two nights and are the top projected offense on the board, a bit more than a quarter of a run ahead of the Yankees. Seth Lugo is certainly not the worst pitcher on the board, but his strikeout increase over the last month (24.6%) is not supported by an 8.3 SwStr% that is roughly equivalent to his season rate (8.5%). He generally struggles to go deep into games and the Met bullpen has been a mess. Lugo has almost no split with a wOBA between .325 and .327 to batters from either side with a 35% hard hit rate, though he gains five points on his ground ball rate against RHBs (45%). Among projected starters, only Jason Heyward and Javier Baez are below average hitters against RHP. The top six, as well as Alex Avila (138 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP), are all reasonably strong plays. Kris Bryant (139 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP) and Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) are the obvious top plays. The Yankees face Wade Miley, which may sound a bit better than it actually is. While RHBs do have a .366 wOBA against him this year, they have just a league average 31.4 Hard% and a 49.7 GB%. Over his last six starts though, he has a 21.2 K% and 54.2 GB% with a 4.1 Hard-Soft%. While his ERA is just 3.18 over this span, his estimators are a run higher due to a 12.3 BB%, while he’s failed to reach six innings in half of those starts. RHBs (125 BF) have a .331 wOBA, three HRs, an 8 K-BB%, 52.9 GB% and 21.2 Hard% over this span. The Yankees have a 17.7 HR/FB at home, but just a 96 wRC+ against LHP with a hard hit rate of 29.4% vs LHP and at home. That said, there are a few Yankees who have mashed LHP this year: Aaron Judge (144 wRC+, .273 ISO, 46.9 Hard%), Gary Sanchez (127 wRC+, .264 ISO, 37.5 Hard%), Matt Holliday (139 wRC+, .231 ISO, 41.5 Hard%) and Todd Frazier (115 wRC+, .295 ISO, 35.9 Hard%). Of that group, only Holliday (37.7%) has a fly ball rate below 42%.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Alex Avila, Seth Lugo, Wade Miley, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday, Todd Frazier Ryder Jones scratched Wednesday; Pablo Sandoval replaces and will bat seventh
Jones has officially been scratched from the San Francisco Giants lineup for tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Pablo Sandoval, who will take over the third base duties and bat seventh. Since Sandoval is slotting directly into Jones’ spot in the batting order, the remainder of the Giants previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Alex Pavlovic via Twitter
Despite recent struggles, Max Scherzer still expected to be the most owned pitcher tonight
Only three batters tonight are expected to even reach 15% ownership currently. Both Seattle Mariners (Nelson Cruz and Mike Zunino) on DraftKings plus Dustin Pedroia on FanDuel. This is as spread out as we’ve seen batter ownership this year and part of the reason might be some uncertainty on the top of the pitching board with Max Scherzer and Jon Lester not up to their usual standards recently and Yu Darvish routinely getting pounded by LHBs. All three are still expected to be among the top owned pitchers against weaker offenses tonight with Scherzer quite a bit ahead of everyone else. Patrick Corbin could be the cheaper secondary pitcher of choice on DraftKings, but even he had his issues last time out, getting bombed by the Padres of all teams. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Patrick Corbin, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Zunino, Nelson Cruz No significant weather concerns on Wednesday night
Kevin’s evening update is a favorable one with a GREEN/YELLOW in Boston the worst grade on the slate. There are currently no interruptions expected tonight. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and find Kevin in RotoGrinders Premium Chat between 6-7pm.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Premium Chat Domingo Santana scratched, no replacement named yet.
Domingo Santana has been scratched from the Milwaukee lineup. A new lineup has yet to be released.
As reported by: Milwaukee Brewers Aaron Nola is one of just three pitchers allowing fewer than 5% Barrels/BBE tonight
In contrast to the first couple of days this week where there were a number of pitchers with either high or low exit velocities, there are very few outliers in Wednesday’s Statcast data, particularly on the low end. Perhaps that’s indicative of the recent struggles of some of tonight’s top end pitchers. Only two pitchers have an average exit velocity below 85 mph. One (Tyler Mahle 83.7) has three major league starts) and the other (Chase Anderson 84.5) has missed significant time this season. Both have a Barrels/BBE rate below 5%. Anderson is tied with Aaron Nola (4.4%) behind Mahle (2.1%). Mahle (20.8%) and Anderson (25.5%) lead the slate with the lowest rates of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity, but Dan Straily (28.1%), Jon Lester (28.3%) and Max Scherzer (29.5%) are all below 30% as well. Straily is such an extreme fly ball pitcher that he’s still sporting a 7% Barrels/BBE rate. If players are thinking about rostering Anderson tonight, beware that he’s exceeded 5.1 innings just once in five starts since returning with a 96 pitch high. On the other end of the spectrum, Matt Moore has allowed the highest average exit velocity (88.6 mph), Barrels/BBE (9.1%) and 95+ mph EV (39.8%). Marcus Stroman and German Marquez are tied with an 88.4 mph aEV. Stroman second alone at 38.4% 95+ mph EV. That elite ground ball rate is necessary for his survival.
Other tagged players: Tyler Mahle, Chase Anderson, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, Dan Straily, Matt Moore, Marcus Stroman, German Marquez Houston Astros RHBs project well against Tyler Skaggs tonight
The Houston Astros are the only offense to have two batters among the top 10 overall projections according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Jose Altuve is the top projected bat on DraftKings with George Springer appearing in the latter half of the top 10 on either site. Each is sporting a 150+ wRC+ and .200+ ISO against LHP this year and RHBs have a .345 wOBA, 32.9 Hard% against Tyler Skaggs this season. Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) is the top projected hitter on FanDuel. LHBs have scorched Matt Harvey this season (.391 wOBA, 37.6 Hard%). Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, both in Arizona, appear in the top five on either site, along with Nelson Cruz, who crushes Martin Perez historically (.607 wOBA, three HRs, 104.7 mph aEV). Value hunter could do well on FanDuel with Kike Hernandez (vs Matt Moore), Evan Gattis, Jose Martinez (vs Tyler Mahle) and Jake Lamb (vs German Marquez) all projecting for somewhere around four Pt/$/K. DraftKings players could look towards another Cardinal, Matt Carpenter (2.38 Pt/$/K) for just $3.6K.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: George Springer, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nelson Cruz, Enrique Hernandez, Jake Lamb, Jose Martinez, Evan Gattis, Matt Carpenter Doug Fister has a 24.1 K% over his last 30 innings with a 61.3 GB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft%
A couple of years ago, Rich Hill hooked on with the Boston Red Sox after being out of baseball for a while. Out of nowhere, he started striking batters out, had a great finish to the 2015 season, which got him a contract with Oakland and more recently, a bigger one with the Dodgers, as he remains one of the better pitchers in the league when healthy. Doug Fister is right-handed and a couple of years younger (33), but he was also out of baseball earlier this year and nobody gave a second thought when he showed up in Boston in June, nor should they considering his poor start. Something’s been up recently though. Fister’s line over his last four starts: 30 IP – 14 H – 5 ER – 1 HR – 8 BB – 27 K – 112 BF – 61.3 GB% – 0.0 Hard – Soft%. There’s also the element of a .173 BABIP, 83.3 LOB% and 5.0 HR/FB that should all be considered unsustainable, but that’s still some quality pitching. Perhaps the biggest concern is that a 24.1 K% is supported by just an 8.1 SwStr% over that span, so the suggestion is not necessarily to roster him tonight for more than $8K, even against an offense that has a 25 K% on the road, vs RHP and over the last week (they also have a 158 wRC+ over the last week), but he may no longer be someone players should automatically attack either. His struggles against LHBs in recent seasons has been widely publicized among daily fantasy players. Over this admittedly small sample four start span, LHBs have just a .244 wOBA with one HR, a 56.4 GB% and 30 Hard%.
Ervin Santana has allowed 27 HRs over his last 23 starts with a BABIP course correction since June
With many of the top arms on the board going through recent struggles and several other young, in-established arms on the mound tonight, players may look to gravitate towards a pitcher with a 3.45 ERA and nearly league average strikeout and swinging strike rates against the lowly Padres (25 K% on the road, vs RHP and over the last week). Be careful with Ervin Santana though. Most players understand that his low ERA is the result of a .242 BABIP and 78.6% strand rate, while estimators are much higher (4.64 SIERA), but some may not understand how far he’s fallen. The BABIP has actually course corrected. Since May 7th, his ERA matches estimators above four with 27 HRs allowed in 23 starts. Since the start of June, it’s been even worse, as his BABIP has course corrected to .301 with an ERA and estimators all above four and a half. Some things for players to think about before paying $10.9K on DraftKings for his services tonight.
Tyler Glasnow struck out 38.5% of batters in 15 AAA starts after being sent down
There are five rookie arms on the mound tonight, the most notable of which is Dinelson Lamet and his 18 starts. His 29.7 K% is second only to Max Scherzer on the slate and he’s squashed contact over his last eight starts (-3.9 Hard-Soft%). However, he has not exceeded six innings in any of his last four starts, walking 16 of 98 batters and faces a Minnesota offense with a 109 wRC+ at home, 103 wRC+ vs RHP and 154 wRC+ over the last week. Of the other four, Tyler Glasnow is the only one with more than three major league starts. He’s been pretty terrible in 12 at the major league level this season (7.9 K-BB%, 7.45 ERA, 5.08 SIERA, 7.48 DRA). He was sent down in June and has made 15 starts at AAA with a 38.5 K% since (29.7 K-BB%). That alone may make him worth another look tonight at a reasonably low cost. Throw in that he’s facing Milwaukee (26 K% at home and vs RHP, 28.9 K% last seven days) and he becomes difficult to ignore. Jack Flaherty is a prospect of some note (#57 in Fangraphs mid-season update) and has struck out 10 of his first 42 batters, striking out a quarter of them at both AA and AAA this season. He did walk four Padres last time out and the Reds could be his toughest test to date after facing the Padres, and Giants, but they are merely a league average offense at best in a slightly negative run environment. He has a 51.9 GB% and 25.9 Hard% in two starts and St Louis suppresses power as well as any park in the majors when it’s not overly hot outside. Luiz Gohara is a 21 year-old who started the season in A ball and has blasted his way through three levels to reach the majors. His lowest strikeout rate has been 26.7% at A ball this season, but he walked four of 20 major league batters in his debut after a 10.4 BB% at AAA. There’s obvious talent there for a pitcher to move so fast through the system at such a young age, but the Nationals offer a tough matchup where he’s not likely to get away with so many walks. Tyler Mahle was just 16th in the Cincinnati system with a 45 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs this pre-season. He had a 15.8 K-BB% at AAA this season, but just a 2.9 K-BB% through three major league starts to go along with solid contact management (58.7 GB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%, 83.7 mph aEV). The Fangraphs Scouting Report suggested marginal stuff and the potential to struggle against LHBs. So far, he’s not shown enough to be useful in a daily fantasy setting yet.
As reported by: Fangraphs Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects Other tagged players: Dinelson Lamet, Jack Flaherty, Luiz Gohara, Tyler Mahle Wednesday's top arms are also some of the most concerning ones
Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, Aaron Nola, Jon Lester and Marcus Stroman. Is this a list of the top pitchers on a strong slate or the most concerning ones on a dangerous one. Scherzer struck out “just” seven Phillies with four runs and three walks last time out after striking out just two Brewers previously. The concern is that he may be dealing with an injury, but the Nationals would have no reason to run him out at anything less than full health right now. Darvish has made four starts over the last month: 18.1 IP – 16 ER – 6 HR – 9 BB – 20 K – 87 BF – .404 BABIP – 41.8 GB% – 28.6 HR/FB – 12.4 SwStr% – 43.1 Hard%. The BABIP and HR rate are unsustainable, while the SwStr% is more encouraging, but that’s a lot of hard contact. If considering using opposing bats tonight, he’s handled RHBs well enough over this stretch (.288 wOBA, 25.6 K-BB%, 36.8 Hard%) and the Giants have no left-handed power in that park. Nola at least has a 24 K% over the last month with a hard hit rate below 20% in two of his last three, but LHBs have a .401 wOBA and 37.2 Hard% over the last 30 days. Lester walked four with five strikeouts last time out and it was his best start in a month. He was lit up immediately before and after a two week break (6.2 IP – 11 ER – 4 HR – 4 K) before that. Stroman is a ground ball machine (61.2% is now second among qualified pitchers) with a league average strikeout rate, but occasionally allows too much hard contact (39.8 Hard% over the last month). He is facing Baltimore, who have a 24.6 K-BB% and 10.3 HR/FB over the last week. In fact, none of the five are in particularly difficult spots. Lester may have the worst of it against a Mets’ offense that has a 137 wRC+ over the last week. Most players will still likely gravitate to one of these guys with a history of being top guys and that’s not necessarily a mistake, but there are some potentially interesting rookie arms on the mound too, who are a lot cheaper tonight.
Other tagged players: Jon Lester, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Nola, Yu Darvish Michael Taylor remains the hottest bat in the league with a 366 wRC+, 46.7 Hard% over the last week
Michael Taylor (.366 wRC+, 46.7 Hard%, three HRs) remains the hottest hitter in the majors via wRC+ (10 PA min.) and will take his hacks at a rookie LHP, Luiz Gohara, making his second major league start. The 21 year-old flame thrower blasted through four levels this season, starting in A ball with a 26.7 K% that’s the lowest of the four levels, but he may not always know where the ball is going, walking 10.4% at AAA and four of his first 20 major league batters.
Kyle Schwarber (350 wRC+, 28.6 Hard%, two HRs) has the minimum 10 PAs over the last week. LHBs have a .391 wOBA, 37.6 Hard% against Matt Harvey this year. Asdrubal Cabrera (324 wRC+, 40 Hard%, no HRs) faces a struggling Jon Lester. Despite a 132 wRC+, he’s shown absolutely no power against LHP this year (.093 ISO). Carlos Gonzalez (301 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, four HRs) has a 21 wRC+ and .096 ISO vs LHP this year. LHBs have a .292 wOBA against Patrick Corbin. A pair of Cardinals have the highest rates of hard contact over the last week. Matt Carpenter (252 wRC+, 75 Hard%, one HR) and Stephen Piscotty (75 wRC+, 70 Hard%, one HR). The latter has only made contact 10 times, but seven out of 10 is nothing to sneeze at. The Cardinals face rookie Tyler Mahle, who has just a 2.9 K-BB% through three starts and a pre-season write up by Fangraphs suggested he may struggle with LHBs. Gonzalez ties with J.D. Martinez (275 wRC+, 68.8 Hard%, four HRs) and Rhys Hoskins (178 wRC+, 40 Hard%, four HRs) for the league and slate HR lead over the last week. Each are facing a RHP who has allowed same handed hitters a .340 wOBA this year with a below average ground ball rate and hard hit rate above 35%.